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bookies robbing city fans

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its in his best interest to wait if city do well, he doesn't know though does he? when the original bet was made he was risking a fiver most people would be pretty comfortable with that.

But now that fiver is worth £1400 i daresay most people on here would not be comfortable with that riding on the outcome of  a match

After the Arsenal match the bet is either worth more than 1400 or less than 1400, its a gamble but a gamble a lot bigger than the origanal £5 bet

 

If city beat Arsenal the origanal fiver will be worth over 2500, if they lose maybe 700

 

Its a dilemma what to do, but a beautiful dilemma nevertheless.

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The bookies aren't ripping anyone off. The value calculation you use assumes individuals only care about the mathematical expectation of a bet, which for the vast majority of people is not the case. Most people are risk averse: they care about the uncertainty of outcomes. A natural implication of this is that most people would rather accept an amount less than the expected payout of the bet instead of taking the risk. Current odds imply that Leicester has about 30% chance of winning the league. This is easy to calculate. Odds of 2/1 imply that Leicester has a probability of 1/3 of winning the league under the assumption that bookies make no profits. Adjusting for the profits bookies make using the sum of the implied probabilities as a deflator gives about 30%. Given this, suppose I had made a £10 bet on Leicester winning the title at 5000/1 in August. If Leicester were to win the league I'd get £50,000 whereas if they didn't I'd win nothing. My expected winnings, if the implied probabilities are to be believed, would be 0.3*50,000+0.7*0 = £15,000. Virtually all studies of human decision making show that the vast majority of people, especially those who aren't absurdly rich, would take an amount less than £15,000 instead of taking the risk. One case where that might not be true is in things like football where, as fans, we have biased and therefore optimistic estimates of the probability of our team winning. All that proves, however, is that when things we are emotionally invested in are at stake we sometimes make irrational decisions that don't serve our best interests. However, the argument is even easier to see with an event about which you only care about because of the impact it will have on you financially. If there were an investment that would pay out £100,000 with a 1% probability or £0 with a 99% probability then the expected return of this investment would £1000. I'm pretty sure the vast majority if not all of us, however, would take £900, or even £500 or less in a heartbeat instead of investing. This is because we are risk averse. The fact is that it can't be a rip-off if people are willing to take the deal offered to them anyway. Even if a person accepts a ridiculously low amount, it might just reflect the fact that they are very risk averse. It's a choice. 

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heard some horror stories of bookies ringing fans with bets on leicester offering money for bets called cashout

the offer is derisory and not worth much over HALF the true value

 

If you have a bet it is easy to find the real worth of your bet

 

how much you win/ CURRENT odds

so £5 at 1000/1 would be

how much you win=5000

CURRENT odds=3.5

so 5000/3.5= £1428

 

So when they offer cashout it should be around this figure(£1428)

You can realise this amount on any betting exchange, it doesn't have to be with the same firm has you have bet with

 

Of course you would need an the funds to do this, and I suggest if you have never used an exchange get help from someone who has

as an ex bookie, i can tell you bookies do not and will not ring you to cash out. they will let the bet ride and lay it off elsewhere and take some off the top (common business practice of course)

 

also that current odds does not work off the premise of a layers commission. 

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they are offering half the value, did you not read my original post?

i have shown how a punter can get twice as much as what the bookie is offering

are you saying if you had bet £5 at 1000/1 you would cash out with the bookie for 700 rather than 1400? , if you are you are insane

Whether you cash or not is a different issue

Are you a moron ?

The punter has an option they can hedge or cash in

The choice is thiers ! No one is forcing cashouts on punters

Honestly what on earth are you whinging about ?

I can buy a 9.99 bottle of wine or 999.99 bottle of wine both taste ok and both get me pissed , but I have the choice which one I want to buy

Honestly how has this stupid post not been merged with other post ? Or locked and deleted

There is no debate here !

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as an ex bookie, i can tell you bookies do not and will not ring you to cash out. they will let the bet ride and lay it off elsewhere and take some off the top (common business practice of course)

also that current odds does not work off the premise of a layers commission.

1000% correct !

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FFS! The punter has the option to take the offer, or let it ride. How is this a rip off?

If this is all you have to worry about, then you're doing better than me pal!

It is hardly a "horror story" if a bookie phones you to make you an offer. Take it or tell him to go screw himself. Up to the punter. You are massively exaggerating a non existent issue

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as an ex bookie, i can tell you bookies do not and will not ring you to cash out. they will let the bet ride and lay it off elsewhere and take some off the top (common business practice of course)

 

also that current odds does not work off the premise of a layers commission. 

ex bookie, sounds like the only thing you understand about betting  is cleaning the floor after the shop is shut.

the commisson would be around 70 off the punters payout of 1400, still a little better than the bookies offer of 700, wouldn't you agree?

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ex bookie, sounds like the only thing you understand about betting is cleaning the floor after the shop is shut.

the commisson would be around 70 off the punters payout of 1400, still a little better than the bookies offer of 700, wouldn't you agree?

As has been pointed out to you by several people already, I think it is you that doesn't understand.

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What a terrible thread.

How can it be robbery? You ain't forced to cash out r ya? I feel I've been 'robbed' here..robbed of my time reading this thread. I thought it was gonna be worth it.

lol

Exactly. If I offer you £500 for your car, you can either take it or tell me to get stuffed. Either way, it's not a rip off. (although I don't know what your car is like!)

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Exactly. If I offer you £500 for your car, you can either take it or tell me to get stuffed. Either way, it's not a rip off. (although I don't know what your car is like!)

500 quid! Bloody cheapskate... lol

Someone needs to post that monty python sketch of the fella haggling in the market place.

You've got to haggle. ....,..

"1500 quid for a cash out! You've got to be kidding! It's worth 1800 if it's worth a shekel"

Etc.....

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ex bookie, sounds like the only thing you understand about betting  is cleaning the floor after the shop is shut.

the commisson would be around 70 off the punters payout of 1400, still a little better than the bookies offer of 700, wouldn't you agree?

i did see this and debate if it warranted a response

 

As has been pointed out to you by several people already, I think it is you that doesn't understand.

and then @@stripeyfox beat me to it! kudos my friend! 

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Gambling is a mug's game.... and of course bookies know that more than anyone.

Anyone who gambles regularly is a legitimate target for a bookie - can't blame them for trying to find ways of making even more money out of these suckers

Theyre not making more money though, theyre just losing less.

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I had £2 @ 1500/1. So £3002 return.

Being offered £830 atm, never realised I was being robbed!! If it gets to £1400 I might think about it as it pays for my holiday !!

Or I might let it run and if it comes up its the European away days paid for

Exactly how are you being robbed ?

It's 800 on a 11/4 shot ? Not exactly robbing is it

You don't like the offer you carry on !

Actually that's a fantastic offer with so many games to go

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