Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest Foxin_mad]

27 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Fair enough.

 

 

Some on the Labour front bench are poor on a personal level, I agree (same applies to the Tories, mind). Labour would benefit from getting one or two more of the moderates on the front bench. Some non-Corbynistas are already involved, though: Keir Starmer, Jon Ashworth, Owen Smith (who stood against Corbyn).

 

Is Momentum "on a purge of decent moderate politicians"? Who have they purged? There was talk of this a year ago - and there might be a few deselections - but I've not heard of anyone getting purged yet?

 

I think you're imagining a greater political polarisation than really exists. There are critical Labour-voting posters on here - and critical Tory posters. I voted Remain, but was genuinely in two minds until about 1-2 weeks before the referendum. I agree that Brexit might work out well in the long-term, though I'm pessimistic about that. Even most convinced Brexiteers now seem to accept that things will get tough in the short-term, though. Some people seem willing to accept 5-10 shit years, banking on a great future after that.....well, I'm sorry, but even if that great future comes about, 5-10 years is a long time for anyone, particularly for me in my 50s and for my daughter who'll be entering the adult world during that period!  

 

Nobody knows the outcome of the Brexit negotiations yet, a good deal might yet be done - and a deal is in the interests of both sides. But the policy to leave the single market and customs union seems quite firm now - I don't think that's just rhetoric, though the Tory Remainers might force a backtrack. I'm not confident that the EU will allow us a deal "very closely aligned to the single market/customs union" if we choose to leave them - why would they allow us most of the benefits with few of the constraints?

 

The idea that "EU countries need to trade with us as much as we need to trade with them" is not "facts", it is opinion - and wrong opinion, IMHO. Almost 50% of our trade is with the EU, but only about 13% of theirs is with us. If we're outside the single market and customs union, almost 50% of our trade will become less competitive, while just 13% of theirs will. Plus, it'll be a lot easier for them to substitute other suppliers from elsewhere in the EU than it will for us to replace any lost trade. Just-in-time car makers have components going to and from the continent several times during the making of a car.. They cannot send parts to and from the USA or Japan so easily. Likewise, it's not as easy to source fresh food supplies from other continents - or to achieve a large expansion in exports to other continents, particularly when many of them (USA, China, Russia) will take an aggressively protectionist approach.

 

I'd feel more confident about reduced immigration (unskilled and skilled) being beneficial if our govt was doing anything to replace departing migrant workers:

- Lots of foreign nurses are leaving, but they haven't reinstated the bursary to encourage Brits to train as nurses, have they?

- Farmers are already complaining of a shortage of seasonal agricultural workers - is anything being done to encourage Brits to do this work?

- The govt apprenticeship levy seems to have led to a massive drop in apprenticeships so far

- We have an aging population with many carers being foreigners - any sign of Brits rushing to fill those jobs?

I agree that some of the Tories are rubbish. I cant honestly think of one good politician on the Labour front bench but that is just my opinion.

 

Momentum have threatened the likes of Luciana Berger with deselection and they have been selecting more far left candidates as replacements, for example the Scottish Labour leader is now an English man of hard left persuasions and former trade union links. I would say the deselections are in some cases part of the purge but I guess we will never know for sure. The momentum group does seem to have added a very nasty part into the party.

 

I agree I would rather us continue on the current path, but as far as I can tell no party is offering that.

 

With regards to the trade deal and why they would offer us a deal? obviously that is up to them but they offered a excellent deal to Switzerland in the 1990s now I appreciate they were never part of the EU but they are very closely aligned and not officially part of the customs or single market. In relation to the 14% export, yes that is the case overall but there is a bigger impact for countries like Germany, 1 in 7 of German cars is sold into the UK. Germany has a £30 billion trade surplus from the UK. There are numerous other examples, if people wish to stop trading with us than that is their prerogative but I fee it would be foolish of either side to block a deal based on political ideologies. It would almost certainly trigger a recession here and in the EU if no deal is done.

 

In relation to the last question we don't know. But the loss of unskilled cheap Labour is no bad thing in my eyes, it will eventually push up wages. If Brits feel they are getting a decent wage for said jobs they might do them, currently wages are held low by people coming from economies with a much lower standard of living and working here for what they consider a decent wage even on a temporary basis they returning home to live, often living here in poor conditions.

[Innovindil]

I have to ask, the **** is a moosebreath and why is he/she so notorious? 

[Carl the Llama]

I guess you were right, Wymes  

[Guest Foxin_mad]

39 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

 

Ok, no idea what you're on about now. If you're not going to address the points raised why are you bothering to reply?

 

Corbyn isn't a socialist. I doubt you've ever actually read any of his policies and you probably don't even know what socialism is. 

 

This debate with you is so vacuous I'm happy to call it quits at this point. 

In this Interview about Scotland's Independence Corbyn describes himself as a Socialist:

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13609421.Corbyn__I_m_a_Socialist_not_a_Unionist/

 

Was this another example of 'Good Honest Politics'?

[Guest MattP]

Corbyn has said numerous times he's a committed socialist; why would anyone deny he is one?

 

He's not ashamed of it, in fact he's quite proud of it. I wish a lot of the Tories were as comfortable about their politics as he is, a lot of them try to disguise what they are these days. 

[Alf Bentley]

48 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Exports to the EU make up 13% of our economy. Most of our economy is made up on domestic consumption. The world bank reckon that leaving the EU without a deal will mean our trade with the EU will go down by 2%, so that's 2% of 13% about a quarter of 1% and that's the worse case scenario. For lots of the countries of the EU exporting to the UK is a huge part of their economy. They won't be able to just shrug it off. Might not finish them off but it'll certainly hurt them.

 

It's true that most of our economy comprises domestic consumption so the direct impact of lost exports is comparatively minor. But there are all sorts of multipliers and indirect impacts, too.

- What about the domestic supply chain for major car exporters? Hundreds of small firms making domestic supplies to exporters....if the exports go, so do a lot of jobs with domestic suppliers.....and so does much of the spending of those newly unemployed workers.

- Likewise, if even a few thousand high-paid City traders see their jobs move to Frankfurt, won't that affect domestic traders from whom they buy goods and services?

- A lot of goods sold to domestic consumers are imports and 53% of our imports come from the EU. If those imports become more expensive, either the public will have to pay more and have less cash for other stuff, or some import-dependent domestic suppliers will go bust.

- Even a small fall in GDP means a lower tax take, creating the old dilemma: even deeper public spending cuts, tax rises or increased public sector debt? All 3 would take money out of the domestic economy.

 

There's also the little matter of potential lost exports to non-EU countries worldwide with which we trade under EU trade deals....or has Liam Fox got a bundle of new, ready-to-sign trade deals in his back pocket? 

 

None of us really know what the scale of the impact will be, but I think you're wearing rose-tinted specs if you reckon a 0.25% decline is the worst-case scenario.

Certainly, everyone loses if there's no deal - and certain countries, notably Ireland, to a lesser extent Holland and Germany will suffer from obstacles to trade.....but nobody stands to lose as much as us.

What the EU does stand to lose is its entire credibility as an organisation if it offers us generous terms...a pretty big incentive to take a hit and watch us take a much bigger one, if we hold out for a generous deal.

 

 

Edited 27 November 2017 by Alf Bentley

[Rogstanley]

9 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

In this Interview about Scotland's Independence Corbyn describes himself as a Socialist:

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13609421.Corbyn__I_m_a_Socialist_not_a_Unionist/

 

Was this another example of 'Good Honest Politics'?

His policies aren't socialist.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

6 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

His policies aren't socialist.

I would say he is pretty Socialist, obviously its all opinion. The state taking control on rail, water and utilities at a rate they/parliament decides is something I would expect to hear from a failing south American country.

 

He also wants to bring back clause 4 which Blair got rid of because of its links to Socialism.

Edited 27 November 2017 by Foxin_mad

[Webbo]

13 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It's true that most of our economy comprises domestic consumption so the direct impact of lost exports is comparatively minor. But there are all sorts of multipliers and indirect impacts, too.

- What about the domestic supply chain for major car exporters? Hundreds of small firms making domestic supplies to exporters....if the exports go, so do a lot of jobs with domestic suppliers.....and so does much of the spending of those newly unemployed workers.

- Likewise, if even a few thousand high-paid City traders see their jobs move to Frankfurt, won't that affect domestic traders from whom they buy goods and services?

- A lot of goods sold to domestic consumers are imports and 53% of our imports come from the EU. If those imports become more expensive, either the public will have to pay more and have less cash for other stuff, or some import-dependent domestic suppliers will go bust.

- Even a small fall in GDP means a lower tax take, creating the old dilemma: even deeper public spending cuts, tax rises or increased public sector debt? All 3 would take money out of the domestic economy.

 

There's also the little matter of potential lost exports to non-EU countries worldwide with which we trade under EU trade deals....or has Liam Fox got a bundle of new, ready-to-sign trade deals in his back pocket? 

 

None of us really know what the scale of the impact will be, but I think you're wearing rose-tinted specs if you reckon a 0.25% decline is the worst-case scenario.

Certainly, everyone loses if there's no deal - and certain countries, notably Ireland, to a lesser extent Holland and Germany will suffer from obstacles to trade.....but nobody stands to lose as much as us.

What the EU does stand to lose is its entire credibility as an organisation if it offers us generous terms...a pretty big incentive to take a hit and watch us take a much bigger one, if we hold out for a generous deal.

 

 

It's a worse case scenario because it's likely we'll get a deal. The financial services exodus hasn't occurred as expected, if the banks do have to set up offices in EU countries then the extra expense will have to be passed on to EU customers, harming them again. If there are tariffs on foreign car parts then UK car parts become more financially viable.

 

If EU imports become more expensive we can always buy stuff from other parts of the world. Given a level playing field Australian,Argentinian or American beef would be cheaper than Irish for example.

 

Obviously no deal will have a negative effect on us but everything they impose on us will hurt them as well.

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

It's a worse case scenario because it's likely we'll get a deal. The financial services exodus hasn't occurred as expected, if the banks do have to set up offices in EU countries then the extra expense will have to be passed on to EU customers, harming them again. If there are tariffs on foreign car parts then UK car parts become more financially viable.

 

Obviously no deal will have a negative effect on us but everything they impose on us will hurt them as well.

 

Ah, well, we'll start finding out fairly soon now....

 

Must work now.

There was something on the News the other day reckoning that the UK's low productivity is partly down to people spending time on social media instead of working. Definitely damages my productivity. 

[Strokes]

13 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

His policies aren't socialist.

Were you not just giving webbo stick for one line replies?

[Guest Foxin_mad]

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It's true that most of our economy comprises domestic consumption so the direct impact of lost exports is comparatively minor. But there are all sorts of multipliers and indirect impacts, too.

- What about the domestic supply chain for major car exporters? Hundreds of small firms making domestic supplies to exporters....if the exports go, so do a lot of jobs with domestic suppliers.....and so does much of the spending of those newly unemployed workers.

- Likewise, if even a few thousand high-paid City traders see their jobs move to Frankfurt, won't that affect domestic traders from whom they buy goods and services?

- A lot of goods sold to domestic consumers are imports and 53% of our imports come from the EU. If those imports become more expensive, either the public will have to pay more and have less cash for other stuff, or some import-dependent domestic suppliers will go bust.

- Even a small fall in GDP means a lower tax take, creating the old dilemma: even deeper public spending cuts, tax rises or increased public sector debt? All 3 would take money out of the domestic economy.

 

There's also the little matter of potential lost exports to non-EU countries worldwide with which we trade under EU trade deals....or has Liam Fox got a bundle of new, ready-to-sign trade deals in his back pocket? 

 

None of us really know what the scale of the impact will be, but I think you're wearing rose-tinted specs if you reckon a 0.25% decline is the worst-case scenario.

Certainly, everyone loses if there's no deal - and certain countries, notably Ireland, to a lesser extent Holland and Germany will suffer from obstacles to trade.....but nobody stands to lose as much as us.

What the EU does stand to lose is its entire credibility as an organisation if it offers us generous terms...a pretty big incentive to take a hit and watch us take a much bigger one, if we hold out for a generous deal.

 

 

Has Liam Fox got new deals ready or in progress? Who knows?!

 

If the EU is silly enough to take a hit, I think it could have a much bigger impact on them as an organisation going forward.

 

There is already growing dissent in Germany, its a very real prospect this could grow with a few hundred thousand job losses in the car industry over there. There is a very real prospect if the EU handle this badly and it comes back to bite them, the whole project could collapse if the German people begin to get disillusioned.

 

Suddenly cutting off Britain one of the biggest export markets in the World will have an impact on us, it will have an impact on the EU and I would imagine it will upset the markets globally, possibly triggering a global rescission and business confidence could drop. I would say for all parties there is a lot more to lose by no deal which is why I have optimism.

 

At the End of the day the EU has a massive budget shortfall to fill also, the only country going to plug that without Germany and France paying more is us, If we are not happy with the deal we can legally not pay a penny more to the EU.

 

Its a very one sided view to assume we need them more than they need us, obviously the media are doing a fine job in creating a storm with absolutely no knowledge on what will happen. What the EU should have done is accept Cameron's pretty lame proposals then they would have saved all this hassle.

 

No deal really encourages more protectionism globally.

[Rogstanley]

13 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

I would say he is pretty Socialist, obviously its all opinion. The state taking control on rail, water and utilities at a rate they/parliament decides is something I would expect to hear from a failing south American country.

 

He also wants to bring back clause 4 which Blair got rid of because of its links to Socialism.

Socialism is the ownership of the means if production by the community. It is the absence of private business.

 

Corbyn to my knowledge has never said he wants to nationalise all private businesses. He wants to nationalise what are effective monopolies in water and energy. Those industries are not really private as they are, since they are (thankfully) heavily regulated.

 

Until Corbyn proposes nationalising a fully private business I have a hard time describing him as socialist even if he calls himself one.

[Rogstanley]

11 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Were you not just giving webbo stick for one line replies?

No I was pointing out that I thought his replies that in many cases don't address the subject matter at all are vacuous beyond belief.

[Webbo]

11 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

 

 

Until Corbyn proposes nationalising a fully private business I have a hard time describing him as socialist even if he calls himself one.

So you're calling him a liar?

[Rogstanley]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

So you're calling him a liar?

I'm saying his policies, ie the things he actually campaigned on as a politician and which he said he would put into action aren't socialist. He might see himself as a socialist personally but as a politician i cant see how he can describe himself as one when his policies aren't.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Rogstanley said:

I'm saying his policies, ie the things he actually campaigned on as a politician and which he said he would put into action aren't socialist. He might see himself as a socialist personally but as a politician i cant see how he can describe himself as one when his policies aren't.

So is he a liar or not competent to enough to know his own mind?

[Guest]

Who on earth is moosebreath?

 

I rate a "I'm Spartacus" moment as 50/50 here.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Webbo said:

So is he a liar or not competent to enough to know his own mind?

Definitely b. And extremely dangerous to boot.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

Definitely b. And extremely dangerous to boot.

He could be both you know.

[Guest MattP]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 41% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via ICM Research)

[Rogstanley]

52 minutes ago, Webbo said:

So is he a liar or not competent to enough to know his own mind?

Those aren't the only options. We are a representative democracy, so it's perfectly reasonable - inevitable in fact - that policies designed to best represent the electorate will sometimes differ from a politician's own personal views.

[Sharpe's Fox]

23 minutes ago, MattP said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 41% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via ICM Research)

They have a great record tbh

 

The Guardian Prediction Poll – PRELIMINARY DATA

| 7th June 2017

 

Conservative 46% (+1)

Labour 34% (nc)

Lib Dem 7% (-1)

SNP 5% (+1)

Plaid Cymru *% (-1)

Green 2% (-1)

UKIP 5% (nc)

Other 1% (nc)

 

[Webbo]

4 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Those aren't the only options. We are a representative democracy, so it's perfectly reasonable - inevitable in fact - that policies designed to best represent the electorate will sometimes differ from a politician's own personal views.

I think toddy's answer was closer to the truth.

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, Webbo said:

He could be both you know.

It seems likely.