Rogstanley Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kopfkino said: Why does it matter what I propose? Is it to just divert attention away from being wrong about Iceland? Anyway, I will briefly entertain the question: Immediately the issue with your statement is the govt has engaged in £800bn of deficit-financed fiscal stimulus, or as you like to put it, putting money into the economy, but yet we still have a productivity problem and folk are complaining about lack of growth (conveniently forgetting end of 2013 til this year). As a nation we've pretty much proven that the government just spending is great for growth. The problem you and rog have is you seem assume government will make good, almost perfect spending decisions which is what is required for government spending to help growth. It's a lot of faith to put into a bunch of civil servants and politicians who one suspects are likely under-achievers. Indexed per capita, between 1990 and 2007, UK government spending increased by 65%, achieving GDP growth of 42.8%, compared with US government spending increase of 34.2% and GDP growth of 37.3%. So we managed 5.5% extra growth from 31% extra spending over that period Brilliant, bravo for government spending and 'putting money into the economy'. Literally everything in your world is demand-side, bar screaming infrastructure or capital expenditure, as if the supply-side doesn't exist. We're not so diametrically opposed here, I absolutely believe we have to be completing infra projects and really investing in transport links etc. But again HS2 shows how easy government wastes money and invests in projects with terrible ROI. And I've said before what I'd do, but I'll repeat Fix housing - reform planning laws so we don't have the most restrictive land regulation laws in the developed world which has a huge effect on prices. Help to Buy is a great example of government throwing money at something and making the problem worse. Reform the tax system - corporation tax is one that needs serious reform. Osborne's cutting was all well and good (it is) but we've ended with an EMTR barely lower and some firms face a higher marginal tax rate if they invest. Is already and will cause major problems for private investment. Liberalise immigration policy for people coming from high income countries so we attract high-skilled migrants rather than filling ourselves up with low-skilled migrants because the EU tells us to. Invest in creative industries which have high productivity and is somewhere the UK excels compared to much of the world. Help SME's access credit - with a similar model to that already implemented in Italy. We absolutely should be doing more on vocational training as well as improving the quality of our management practices. We actually have some highly productive firms but are brought down by the massive slew of unproductive firms (low interest rates don't help). There must be things to be learnt from those firms, as there must be in the fact foreign-owned firms are more productive than our own much of the time. I do support some of Hammond's measures this week pushing innovative, high-tech stuff, increasing R&D spending and trying to Dunno how to mass delete and can’t be bothered to do it manually. I’m only responding to the first paragraph. Who was wrong about Iceland? They’ve seen double digit wage growth, low unemployment, GDP through the roof and have smashed their deficit to pieces after saying a big FU to the banks and letting them fail... [rant coming up, skip if you like]...where we pandered to them and forced bailing them out onto the public without even asking if that’s what we wanted. Where were the brave ‘make Britain great again’ democracy warriors while all that was going off? Stretching their cheeks in preparation for big bank penetration, evidently. It’s no wonder Iceland’s confident, spirited footballers managed to beat our bunch of flaccid cucks so easily last summer. For all the “hard choice” rhetoric the current government are the softest, most pathetic people imaginable and their unwavering supporters lapping up their every soundbite are even worse. At least a Tory MP gets a salary out of it. Wtf a working class Tory thinks they’re achieving by supporting such a feeble bunch of cowards I’ll never know. Time was when we fought for our rights and our freedoms in this country. Now we just give them away. Pathetic. Edited 25 November 2017 by Rogstanley
Sharpe's Fox Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 10 hours ago, Webbo said: John McDonnell doesn’t seem to understand how government debt works Labour’s shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, was unable to put a figure on how much his party’s plans to invest around £50 billion would add to the national debt. And the answer he did give suggests he doesn’t understand how government debt actually works. FactCheck takes a look. The claim In an interview on the Today programme on Thursday, Mr McDonnell was asked, given that servicing the national debt costs about £48 billion a year: “how much would it cost under Labour?”. He said: “We would ensure that day to day spending was not paid for by borrowing, that we would only invest for our infrastructure and that investment would pay for itself through the growth that’s achieved, and that’s a one-for-one return.” Asked again how much his plans would add to the national debt, he said: “Immediately that infrastructure [investment] puts more people back into work, they pay their taxes and as a result of that you recover your costs.” He said that because interest rates were low, the cost in terms of the national debt would be “minimal”. Mr McDonnell seems to be conflating GDP growth with tax revenue Mr McDonnell has cited “one-for-one multipliers” to help explain his answer. These are the kind of economicky words that would impress even Michael Gove. “Multipliers” are measures that help the government to work out how much GDP will grow as a result of spending. For example, a multiplier of one-to-four means that for every pound of government spending, GDP will grow by four pounds. Different types of spending will have different multipliers. Mr McDonnell is right that spending to invest in the economy has a multiplier of about one-for-one. In fact, the Office for Budget Responsibility puts it at slightly more than that: it estimates that if the government invests an extra £1 in the economy, GDP will grow by £1.10. So in that sense, Mr McDonnell is right that Labour’s planned investment would “pay for itself in terms of growth.” But remember, the question is how much Labour’s plans would add to the national debt. And the key to answering that is working out how much their investment would yield in tax revenue. Mr McDonnell said “immediately that infrastructure [investment] puts more people back into work, they pay their taxes and as a result of that you recover your costs.” At first glance, that seems plausible. It’s true that as GDP rises, the government can expect to receive more in taxes as consumers spend more (which provides VAT revenue) and as workers earn more (and pay more income tax). But for every pound added to GDP, the government only gets about 35p more in tax revenue. The chief economist at the Institute of Economic Affairs, Julian Jessop, pointed out this problem in an article earlier this year. He says that for increased government spending to fund itself through taxes, “the fiscal multiplier would have to be implausibly high”. He estimates that the multiplier would have to be about one-to-three, “assuming a tax/GDP ratio of 35 per cent”. Put simply, Mr McDonnell said that his planned investment won’t add to the government debt because he seems to think that: £1 of government investment = £1 of GDP growth = £1 tax revenue When in fact, the formula looks like this: £1 of government investment = £1 of GDP growth = £0.35 of tax revenue FactCheck verdict John McDonnell said that his Labour’s planned investment in the economy would “pay for itself through the growth that’s achieved”. That part of his claim is correct: for every £1 of government investment, GDP will grow by £1 (or even slightly more). But he was answering a question about how much it his plans would add to the national debt. He suggested that for every extra pound the government spends on investment, it will get the same back in tax revenue “immediately” because it “puts more people back into work, they pay their taxes and as a result of that you recover your costs.” Mr McDonnell said the increase in debt payments under Labour would be “minimal”. But that’s based on a false assumption that every pound of government investment will bring in an extra pound in tax revenue. In fact, for every £1 of additional investment, the government can only expect about 35p more in tax revenue. On that basis, we can’t see how Mr McDonnell can sustain the claim that Labour’s plans will pay for themselves through taxes. https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-john-mcdonnell-doesnt-seem-to-understand-how-government-debt-works
Sharpe's Fox Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 (edited) "Factcheck" Edited 25 November 2017 by Sharpe's Fox
Rogstanley Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 Absolutely stunning work there by Channel 4’s factcheck team
Guest Kopfkino Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 24 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: Dunno how to mass delete and can’t be bothered to do it manually. I’m only responding to the first paragraph. Who was wrong about Iceland? They’ve seen double digit wage growth, low unemployment, GDP through the roof and have smashed their deficit to pieces after saying a big FU to the banks and letting them fail... [rant coming up, skip if you like]...where we pandered to them and forced bailing them out onto the public without even asking if that’s what we wanted. Where were the brave ‘make Britain great again’ democracy warriors while all that was going off? Stretching their cheeks in preparation for big bank penetration, evidently. It’s no wonder Iceland’s confident, spirited footballers managed to beat our bunch of flaccid cucks so easily last summer. For all the “hard choice” rhetoric the current government are the softest, most pathetic people imaginable and their unwavering supporters lapping up their every soundbite are even worse. At least a Tory MP gets a salary out of it. Wtf a working class Tory thinks they’re achieving by supporting such a feeble bunch of cowards I’ll never know. Time was when we fought for our rights and our freedoms in this country. Now we just give them away. Pathetic. Right, but toddy's initial copy and paste job was talking about Iceland showing there was a different way in terms of austerity, which is completely wrong because they engaged in harder austerity than the UK and since ending austerity have increased government spending at a lower rate than the UK. And that's where austerity failed in this country, it wasn't actually austerity. It's a great example of successful austerity, though a country the size of Leicester with a homogenous population isn't a particularly useful case study either way. I mean your preaching to the wrong person about letting the banks fail, absolutely would prefer to leave them to fail, short term pain for long term gain. But realistically, RBS couldn't be allowed to fail, as much as I wish they and all were allowed to. Still that has nothing to do with this government so I'm not entirely sure why you've again attacked the Tories. A man who thinks we should vote for Corbyn is talking about throwing away freedoms. Couldn't write it. But yes was probably a good idea to not read your rant.
Rogstanley Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 16 minutes ago, Kopfkino said: Right, but toddy's initial copy and paste job was talking about Iceland showing there was a different way in terms of austerity, which is completely wrong because they engaged in harder austerity than the UK and since ending austerity have increased government spending at a lower rate than the UK. And that's where austerity failed in this country, it wasn't actually austerity. It's a great example of successful austerity, though a country the size of Leicester with a homogenous population isn't a particularly useful case study either way. I mean your preaching to the wrong person about letting the banks fail, absolutely would prefer to leave them to fail, short term pain for long term gain. But realistically, RBS couldn't be allowed to fail, as much as I wish they and all were allowed to. Still that has nothing to do with this government so I'm not entirely sure why you've again attacked the Tories. A man who thinks we should vote for Corbyn is talking about throwing away freedoms. Couldn't write it. But yes was probably a good idea to not read your rant. I think the point is that they *did* austerity, but have since moved on and are very much feeling the benefit, while we’re still talking about doing more and more and more. There is a lot more to it than that though, I grant you. What freedoms would Corbyn take away?
bovril Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 3 minutes ago, Webbo said: Typical Channel 4 wankers. Football Italia was awesome though. 1
Dr The Singh Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 4 minutes ago, Webbo said: Typical Channel 4 wankers. Better then bbc
Rogstanley Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 11 minutes ago, bovril said: Football Italia was awesome though. Never mind that what about Eurotrash 1
Guest Posted 25 November 2017 Posted 25 November 2017 9 hours ago, Webbo said: That factcheck article has completely debunked your whole argument, borrowing more money will lead to more debt, it will not pay for itself. MacDonell either doesn't know what he's talking about or he's lying, probably both. 2 hours ago, Sharpe's Fox said: 1 hour ago, Sharpe's Fox said: 1 hour ago, Webbo said: Typical Channel 4 wankers. ?
Buce Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 ‘The impact of my stupidity’ - the people who regret voting leave: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit
Strokes Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 30 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said: Mmmm canned worms Not really it’s took them 18 months to find one.
Alf Bentley Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 1 hour ago, Buce said: ‘The impact of my stupidity’ - the people who regret voting leave: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit The Guardian highlighting phrases like "the impact of my stupidity" just entrenches and polarises opinions, IMHO - and appeals to smugness in its Remainer readership. Unfortunately, the most relevant parts of an interesting article are: 1) The poll says that just 47% regret the referendum vote with 42% NOT regretting it, the rest being don't-knows....nowhere near enough for any reconsideration of the decision 2) About 11% who voted Leave have changed their minds...but so have 7% who voted Remain (see above) 3) Psychologically, most people resist changing their minds, and particularly resist admitting that they might have got a really important decision wrong (we all know that from ourselves and others on here, if we're honest) I cannot imagine there being a serious attempt to overturn the referendum result unless there's a massive swing in public opinion of Brexit (70-75%+ opposition?). And I cannot imagine there being a massive swing in public opinion unless things start to get truly and obviously disastrous - because of point (3) above. Even then, it could just as easily create a surge in support for the UK to withdraw from negotiations, give the EU no cash whatsoever and get the border posts back in Ireland.
Guest Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 56 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: The Guardian highlighting phrases like "the impact of my stupidity" just entrenches and polarises opinions, IMHO - and appeals to smugness in its Remainer readership. Unfortunately, the most relevant parts of an interesting article are: 1) The poll says that just 47% regret the referendum vote with 42% NOT regretting it, the rest being don't-knows....nowhere near enough for any reconsideration of the decision 2) About 11% who voted Leave have changed their minds...but so have 7% who voted Remain (see above) 3) Psychologically, most people resist changing their minds, and particularly resist admitting that they might have got a really important decision wrong (we all know that from ourselves and others on here, if we're honest) I cannot imagine there being a serious attempt to overturn the referendum result unless there's a massive swing in public opinion of Brexit (70-75%+ opposition?). And I cannot imagine there being a massive swing in public opinion unless things start to get truly and obviously disastrous - because of point (3) above. Even then, it could just as easily create a surge in support for the UK to withdraw from negotiations, give the EU no cash whatsoever and get the border posts back in Ireland. Doesn't the article say this? There was something in the Guardian to this effect in the last few days. I actually think the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the current shower of shite government could end up backfiring on them as people should* get worried if we genuinely look like crashing out. *but then there are a lot of stupid people about
katieakita Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 Looks like you useless Postal Office Minister Margot James will be up before the DWP Cross party select committee chaired by Frank Field looking into Sham self employed contracts, the Gig economy and unfair working practice. Will be interesting to hear an explanation as to why the government owned Post Office is one of the highest profile offenders. A company that refuses to follow guidelines laid down by the governments own pension regulator or how £1 million was paid as a bonus for reducing National insurance by £11 million or why they refuse to speak to ACAS regarding their treatment of Post Office owners. Will be uncomfortable to explain why Postmasters are denied Union representation yet changes to their terms and conditions are agreed by an organisation with no collective bargaining rights run by someone expelled from the Labour Party for their links to militant tendency the father of a convicted Post Office armed robber and convicted drug dealer, a trade association that receives a grant of £2.5 million a year to endorse all Post Office proposals represents those who they have no legal authority to do so. At least he won't ask why the accounts are long overdue and where the government owned Post Office has set aside funds to cover the 1st GLO order against it with damages and costs likely to be well over £500 million or the high number of criminal case reviews in progress or the Police investigation into Perjury and the abuse of public office by senior Post Office officials all while receiving £2.3 billion in government subsidy to completely wreck one of the countries oldest institutions
Alf Bentley Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 1 hour ago, toddybad said: Doesn't the article say this? There was something in the Guardian to this effect in the last few days. I actually think the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the current shower of shite government could end up backfiring on them as people should* get worried if we genuinely look like crashing out. *but then there are a lot of stupid people about If that happens, I reckon that an awful lot of Brexit supporters will blame the EU for "unfairly punishing us", not the UK Govt for its negotiating tactics or even the Brexiteer camp for raising unrealistic expectations of a low divorce payment, no problems over the Irish border, a great new trade deal with the EU, great new trade deals all around the world etc.
Buce Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 I’m not sure if I’m reading it right, but it seems like Liam Fox is saying ‘no discussion on the Irish border problem until a trade deal’, while the EU say ‘no trade talks until the border question is sorted’. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/26/liam-fox-northern-ireland-border-eu-trade-deal-uk-brexit
BlueSi13 Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 If talks don't progress over the next couple of weeks despite the supposed doubling of the divorce bill offer then I believe most of the 17m+ brexiters will be intensely supportive of the government walking away from the negotiating table (if you could even call it that). I personally think we are very very close to that outcome.
Buce Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 1 minute ago, BlueSi13 said: If talks don't progress over the next couple of weeks despite the supposed doubling of the divorce bill offer then I believe most of the 17m+ brexiters will be intensely supportive of the government walking away from the negotiating table (if you could even call it that). I personally think we are very very close to that outcome. I don’t think they can walk away - they will lose DUP support for anything that results in a hard border.
Rogstanley Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 2 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said: If talks don't progress over the next couple of weeks despite the supposed doubling of the divorce bill offer then I believe most of the 17m+ brexiters will be intensely supportive of the government walking away from the negotiating table (if you could even call it that). I personally think we are very very close to that outcome. Big statement to make on behalf of 17m people especially considering that I believe surveys show vast support for a soft brexit even among brexiters.
Alf Bentley Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 18 minutes ago, Buce said: I don’t think they can walk away - they will lose DUP support for anything that results in a hard border. I wouldn't be so sure about that. Particularly if the Tories continue to insist on leaving the customs union and it really is a choice between a customs border between the North and the Republic and a customs border between GB and NI. Here's a view suggesting the DUP stance might be a lot murkier: http://www.agendani.com/the-dup-and-brexit/ Then there's the little matter of them potentially handing Corbyn, known to favour a united Ireland, the keys to No. 10. If the Tory Brexit wing is to have its Hard Brexit plans derailed, I reckon it'll be Tory Remainers who'll have to do it, not the DUP. 1
Guest Posted 26 November 2017 Posted 26 November 2017 31 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said: If talks don't progress over the next couple of weeks despite the supposed doubling of the divorce bill offer then I believe most of the 17m+ brexiters will be intensely supportive of the government walking away from the negotiating table (if you could even call it that). I personally think we are very very close to that outcome. The thing I find bizarre is the idea that £xbillion is too much. Given that the amount should be based on what is owed and none of us know that I don't understand the idea that £20b is okay but £40b is too much. For all the talk of remoaners and mutuneers, I genuinely think those that seek support for hard Brexit through lies and subterfuge should be up for treason.
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