Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 2 hours ago, bovril said: What is everyone's fancy dress costume of choice? 2018 public sector worker
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 2 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: If Labour loses next time, the party could tear itself apart. Perhaps. Who knows. Trouble is the policies are pretty much right, it's just the personalities involved that are affecting the ability to win. Everybody in politics is an imbecile that draws the wrong conclusions. Labour did better than expected last time and I think it's true that Corbyn was a big positive in the end but it was the policies that are the star. Whether Corbyn is still a vote winger and not looser next time round remains to be seen.
Alf Bentley Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 4 hours ago, MattP said: There is another possible scenario as well, the Tories put the border on the Irish Sea through and dare the DUP to withdraw the confidence and supply arrangement, possibly forcing a General Election and an supporter of Irish Republicanism into number 10. The other big difference now is that it's becoming clear Corbyn isn't going to win a majority, he might get enough to scramble himself over the line as PM in a coalition but if he can't make inroads at this point in time then it can't really get much worse for the Conservative party. I still don't know where the idea comes from that the Irish will all start killing each other again even if a border does go up, I'd even argue there is some subliminal middle class racism towards the Irish on that point of view, (not from yourself obviously ) this is a far different country from what it used to be - I don't know if you watched the interview with Bertie Ahern but it was very good and I'm sure he's right that even if the EU or UK gov erected one it would be torn down the people. On the bottom part, I don't think the argument of "right, we're going for more and more federalism, joining the Euro....we won the referendum" stands up in comparison as no one stated that during the campaign if the vote was to remain, what was made clear by the Prime Minister, Chancellor and Johnson and Gove was that a vote to leave meant we left the single market. Thanks for the considered response. Yes, I forgot the Irish Sea border scenario, but think that's one of the least likely. DUP would oppose, probably some Tories, plus uproar from wider Unionist community & high risk of govt collapse. I agree that Corbyn's unlikely to win a majority just now, a poor effort in the circumstances. But I disagree that it can't get much worse for the Tories. If the Brexit negotiations get derailed, potentially leaving us facing a March 2019 cliff edge, and economic & other problems start mounting (not inevitable, but likely), it could get worse for the Tories....which might encourage one or other faction to think that it's better to bring down May or the Govt sooner rather than later. Re. an Irish hard border, my guess is that a tiny minority of "Real IRA" types would try to abuse the situation. Because we've had 20 years of peace, there'd be less chance of it escalating than in the 1990s - and a lot of opposition. But tit-for-tat sectarianism spiraling out of control is a definite risk: Real IRA kill protestant police at border, Loyalists retaliate & kill a few Catholics, some Catholic youths get driven into arms of Real IRA etc. A smaller risk than in 1997, but still one not to be taken. "It was made clear that a Leave vote meant leaving the Single Market"? No! Here's my take: - Until shortly before the referendum campaign, leading Leave figures were all over the place. Some (e.g. Gove) clearly wanting to leave SM; others (e.g. Hannan) open to a Norway/SM model; a lot probably unsure - During the campaign, some started realising that some of their aims (e.g. free movement) might be impossible in SM, but they felt campaigning to leave SM would be a vote loser, so dishonestly did NOT make SM policy clear - Remain campaign also felt the idea of leaving SM would be a vote loser for Leave, so tried to flush them out, repeatedly stating that this was the Leave policy - & as part of Project Fear dishonestly claimed that leaving EU inevitably meant leaving SM (not true, as Norway is in SM) - In latter stages of campaign, a few more Leave folk started coming clean under pressure: Leadsom said we'd "probably have to leave SM"; when pressed, Boris agreed with Gove's stance (if it was so clear, why did he have to be asked where he stood a fortnight before the referendum?!) - Most voters were pretty clueless about SM; Leave won - then realised they definitely needed to leave SM to get what they wanted, so started dishonestly pretending that they'd been clear all along - In turn, Remainers started dishonestly posting pre-campaign footage of Brexiteers supporting SM, Norway model etc. Doesn't show anyone in a good light, all that! If Leave did make it clear that they wanted to quit the SM, you should easily be able to post lots of Youtube footage - and campaign documents.....over to you! Here are some to support my theory: Vote Leave web site: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing.html (no commitment to leave SM; commits to leave 'common commercial policy', criticises SM....but no commitment to leave) Remainer video showing lots of Brexiteers supporting SM....but dishonest as before referendum campaign: Brexiteer video showing Andrew Neil demolishing the above....and various REMAINERS (but not BREXITEERS) trying to pin a "leave SM" policy on Leave and to scare the electorate that we'd have to leave SM: That Brexiteer video correctly challenges the dishonesty of the claims in the Remain video - but then only shows Remainers talking about leaving the SM. Why, if Leave were making their intentions clear?! To his credit, Gove was clear some time before the campaign, but the others were ducking and diving all over the shop. There's footage of Leadsom saying we'd "probably" have to leave SM - and of Boris, a fortnight before the vote, pressurised into agreeing with Gove...... Can you find some more clear Leave "let's leave SM" statements? Can you find any such statements on the Vote Leave web site? 2
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 11 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Thanks for the considered response. Yes, I forgot the Irish Sea border scenario, but think that's one of the least likely. DUP would oppose, probably some Tories, plus uproar from wider Unionist community & high risk of govt collapse. I agree that Corbyn's unlikely to win a majority just now, a poor effort in the circumstances. But I disagree that it can't get much worse for the Tories. If the Brexit negotiations get derailed, potentially leaving us facing a March 2019 cliff edge, and economic & other problems start mounting (not inevitable, but likely), it could get worse for the Tories....which might encourage one or other faction to think that it's better to bring down May or the Govt sooner rather than later. Re. an Irish hard border, my guess is that a tiny minority of "Real IRA" types would try to abuse the situation. Because we've had 20 years of peace, there'd be less chance of it escalating than in the 1990s - and a lot of opposition. But tit-for-tat sectarianism spiraling out of control is a definite risk: Real IRA kill protestant police at border, Loyalists retaliate & kill a few Catholics, some Catholic youths get driven into arms of Real IRA etc. A smaller risk than in 1997, but still one not to be taken. "It was made clear that a Leave vote meant leaving the Single Market"? No! Here's my take: - Until shortly before the referendum campaign, leading Leave figures were all over the place. Some (e.g. Gove) clearly wanting to leave SM; others (e.g. Hannan) open to a Norway/SM model; a lot probably unsure - During the campaign, some started realising that some of their aims (e.g. free movement) might be impossible in SM, but they felt campaigning to leave SM would be a vote loser, so dishonestly did NOT make SM policy clear - Remain campaign also felt the idea of leaving SM would be a vote loser for Leave, so tried to flush them out, repeatedly stating that this was the Leave policy - & as part of Project Fear dishonestly claimed that leaving EU inevitably meant leaving SM (not true, as Norway is in SM) - In latter stages of campaign, a few more Leave folk started coming clean under pressure: Leadsom said we'd "probably have to leave SM"; when pressed, Boris agreed with Gove's stance (if it was so clear, why did he have to be asked where he stood a fortnight before the referendum?!) - Most voters were pretty clueless about SM; Leave won - then realised they definitely needed to leave SM to get what they wanted, so started dishonestly pretending that they'd been clear all along - In turn, Remainers started dishonestly posting pre-campaign footage of Brexiteers supporting SM, Norway model etc. Doesn't show anyone in a good light, all that! If Leave did make it clear that they wanted to quit the SM, you should easily be able to post lots of Youtube footage - and campaign documents.....over to you! Here are some to support my theory: Vote Leave web site: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing.html (no commitment to leave SM; commits to leave 'common commercial policy', criticises SM....but no commitment to leave) Remainer video showing lots of Brexiteers supporting SM....but dishonest as before referendum campaign: Brexiteer video showing Andrew Neil demolishing the above....and various REMAINERS (but not BREXITEERS) trying to pin a "leave SM" policy on Leave and to scare the electorate that we'd have to leave SM: That Brexiteer video correctly challenges the dishonesty of the claims in the Remain video - but then only shows Remainers talking about leaving the SM. Why, if Leave were making their intentions clear?! To his credit, Gove was clear some time before the campaign, but the others were ducking and diving all over the shop. There's footage of Leadsom saying we'd "probably" have to leave SM - and of Boris, a fortnight before the vote, pressurised into agreeing with Gove...... Can you find some more clear Leave "let's leave SM" statements? Can you find any such statements on the Vote Leave web site? Leaving the SM was in both Labours and the Conservative 2017 manifestos the mandate for leaving it is as clear as can be.
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 11 minutes ago, Strokes said: Leaving the SM was in both Labours and the Conservative 2017 manifestos the mandate for leaving it is as clear as can be. The election wasn't about Brexit.
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 Once again the government being dragged, kicking and screaming, to do the right thing May faces cross-party push for public company registers in overseas territories https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/27/theresa-may-faces-cross-party-push-company-public-registers-overseas-territories-amendment-tory?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 27 minutes ago, toddybad said: The election wasn't about Brexit. Brexit was in the manifestos..... 1
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Strokes said: Brexit was in the manifestos..... So was hundreds of other things. I don't think anybody I know of voted for a party based on Brexit. TM wanted a electron about Becky but quickly found that pretty much none of the questions from the pubic were about that. There'd been a referendum only 9 months earlier. It was a choice between spend or no spend. No spend slightly won. Kind of. Edited 27 April 2018 by Guest
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 Just now, toddybad said: So was hundreds of other things. I don't think anybody I know of voted for a party based on Brexit. TM wanted a electron about Becky but quickly found that pretty much none of the questions from the pubic were about that. There'd been a referendum only 9 months earlier. It was a choice between spend or no spend. No spend slightly won. Kind of. It doesn’t matter, there is a mandate as 85% of the public voted for parties that said that were committed to leaving the single market. So any quibbles over leave or remain campaigns clarity on the subject is dead right there. The public either support it or don’t care enough to vote against it.
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 19 minutes ago, Strokes said: It doesn’t matter, there is a mandate as 85% of the public voted for parties that said that were committed to leaving the single market. So any quibbles over leave or remain campaigns clarity on the subject is dead right there. The public either support it or don’t care enough to vote against it. As far as I can tell both parties still hold that policy anyway.
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 1 minute ago, toddybad said: As far as I can tell both parties still hold that policy anyway. I know, I’m not disputing that. I was merely pointing out quibbling over whether the single market exit was represented in the referendum correctly is irrelevant because it’s been superseded by the GE.
Buce Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 Just now, Strokes said: I know, I’m not disputing that. I was merely pointing out quibbling over whether the single market exit was represented in the referendum correctly is irrelevant because it’s been superseded by the GE. Not really. The GE wasn't a single issue election; it's quite possible to support a party's domestic agenda without agreeing with its stance on the SM. 1
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 6 minutes ago, Buce said: Not really. The GE wasn't a single issue election; it's quite possible to support a party's domestic agenda without agreeing with its stance on the SM. It doesn’t matter whether you support it, you voted for it.
Alf Bentley Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 26 minutes ago, Strokes said: It doesn’t matter, there is a mandate as 85% of the public voted for parties that said that were committed to leaving the single market. So any quibbles over leave or remain campaigns clarity on the subject is dead right there. The public either support it or don’t care enough to vote against it. It's set to happen unless there's a massive, unexpected shift in public opinion, expressed via a different mandate in a general election or 2nd referendum.....highly unlikely, I'd guess. Labour's manifesto didn't commit to leaving the single market, anyway: https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/#third "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain. Labour will always put jobs and the economy first". A deliberately vague manifesto policy, I grant you....but that means about 54% of the public voted for parties that were NOT committed to leaving - only Tories, UKIP & DUP committed, I think? So, we're staying then? Here's analysis of how Labour's policy has subtly shifted: https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-qa-whats-labours-position-on-the-single-market Anyway, if manifestos are now to be seen as binding documents, can we get in the tardis and return to 1997 to implement Labour's promised referendum on electoral reform (which would probably have been won back then)?
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 4 minutes ago, Strokes said: It doesn’t matter whether you support it, you voted for it. This is really boring strokes. If you voted tory you voted for a manifesto that was thrown in the bin the day after the election but I don't hear you calling for fox hunting or a death tax.
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: It's set to happen unless there's a massive, unexpected shift in public opinion, expressed via a different mandate in a general election or 2nd referendum.....highly unlikely, I'd guess. Labour's manifesto didn't commit to leaving the single market, anyway: https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/#third "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain. Labour will always put jobs and the economy first". A deliberately vague manifesto policy, I grant you....but that means about 54% of the public voted for parties that were NOT committed to leaving - only Tories, UKIP & DUP committed, I think? So, we're staying then? Here's analysis of how Labour's policy has subtly shifted: https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-qa-whats-labours-position-on-the-single-market Anyway, if manifestos are now to be seen as binding documents, can we get in the tardis and return to 1997 to implement Labour's promised referendum on electoral reform (which would probably have been won back then)? You can’t (as you well know) stop freedom of movement and stay in the single market. Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change, but Labour will not scapegoat migrants nor blame them for economic failures. Edited 27 April 2018 by Strokes
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 I didn't know this. It's quite funny really. A ComRes survey just before the 2016 vote found 61% of voters declaring themselves willing to accept a short-term economic slowdown to tighten immigration controls, but 68% unwilling to see their personal annual income negatively affected at all to achieve the same. What has the economy to do with the public, much of the public wonders.
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 1 minute ago, toddybad said: This is really boring strokes. If you voted tory you voted for a manifesto that was thrown in the bin the day after the election but I don't hear you calling for fox hunting or a death tax. It’s a dementia tax and whataboutery. If it’s boring stop quoting me and I won’t reply to you, that’s what I do when you bore me.
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Strokes said: It’s a dementia tax and whataboutery. If it’s boring stop quoting me and I won’t reply to you, that’s what I do when you bore me. And that's why we don't agree on so many things. We see things differently. I'm more positive than you. I'm sure that if I keep responding eventually you'll become more interesting. Perhaps my own stardust will rub off on you? Anyway, I'm not sure how it's whataboutery to point out that your argument is that we voted for something so it has to happen yet you don't think the other things we voted for have to happen. It's as if you've just picked up on a word being recklessly bandied about and thought you'd join the bandwagon. Edited 27 April 2018 by Guest
Guest Kopfkino Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 4 minutes ago, toddybad said: And that's why we don't agree on so many things. We see things differently. I'm more positive than you. All you do is whinge
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 2 minutes ago, toddybad said: And that's why we don't agree on so many things. We see things differently. I'm more positive than you. I'm sure that if I keep responding eventually you'll become more interesting. Perhaps my own stardust will rub off on you? Anyway, I'm not sure how it's whataboutery to point out that your argument is that we voted for something so it has to happen yet you don't think the other things we voted for have to happen. It's as if you've just picked up on a word being recklessly bandied about and thought you'd join the bandwagon. Where did I say it has to happen? I said there is a mandate for it and it supersedes the referendum. You are trying to spin the argument with whataboutery rather than admit you voted to leave the single market. I don’t think I’ve ever seen you post anything positive toddy, your a not exactly a ray of light.
Alf Bentley Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 8 minutes ago, Strokes said: You can’t (as you well know) stop freedom of movement and stay in the single market. Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change, but Labour will not scapegoat migrants nor blame them for economic failures. Yes, I'm aware of that. That's why I was accepting that we'd leave the Single Market, but backing us to remain in the Customs Union....until yesterday. A conversation with @Webbo yesterday convinced me that I'd got it wrong. So, now I think we should stay in the Single Market and accept freedom of movement but adopt domestic measures to address concern over immigration (better pay/conditions for unskilled work, more labour inspections to prevent abuse by employers, legislation to force employers to advertise jobs locally and not just bring in cheap labour from the continent, better public transport to make remote jobs more accessible etc.). We should also restore nursing bursaries to encourage more locals to view that as a financially viable career. Thanks for putting me right, Webster. 1
Strokes Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said: Yes, I'm aware of that. That's why I was accepting that we'd leave the Single Market, but backing us to remain in the Customs Union....until yesterday. A conversation with @Webbo yesterday convinced me that I'd got it wrong. So, now I think we should stay in the Single Market and accept freedom of movement but adopt domestic measures to address concern over immigration (better pay/conditions for unskilled work, more labour inspections to prevent abuse by employers, legislation to force employers to advertise jobs locally and not just bring in cheap labour from the continent, better public transport to make remote jobs more accessible etc.). We should also restore nursing bursaries to encourage more locals to view that as a financially viable career. Thanks for putting me right, Webster. There no point in leaving the single market if we stay in the customs union. So I kind of agree, we either do it properly or forget the whole thing, I’d be less mad with complete abandonment than watered down wishy washy bullshit brexit and I totally agree with the sentiments of the rest of the post.
Guest Posted 27 April 2018 Posted 27 April 2018 21 minutes ago, Strokes said: Where did I say it has to happen? I said there is a mandate for it and it supersedes the referendum. You are trying to spin the argument with whataboutery rather than admit you voted to leave the single market. I don’t think I’ve ever seen you post anything positive toddy, your a not exactly a ray of light. Tbf there isn't much positive about our politics these days is there?
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