Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Rogstanley]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Before I go, a (long) but interesting read from Standpoint in the May edition. Just how ridiculous Project Fear was.

 

http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/7149
 

 

An article from a former UKIP candidate, sure to be well balanced

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Rogstanley said:

An article from a former UKIP candidate, sure to be well balanced

Feel free to take the points apart rather than attack the man.

 

What were your thoughts on Osborne? Pro under Moose anti under Frank to Be wasn't it?

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, Webbo said:

It's the EU that's being a ****.

They're being obstinate, certainly, but perhaps such consequences and obstinacy should have been considered and accounted for with a plan in place before they happened?

 

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Why not security and defence?

Not really an area that attracts any kind of interest from me, but if you want to throw it in, yeah, of course - above argument for that too.

[Rogstanley]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Depends what you mean by small? What would it have been without the snow?

They haven't given a figure but they did note that only construction and retail had been impacted by the weather, and both of those had falling output in January and February as well, when the weather was fine. 

 

They also note that some of the March data is estimated based on normal conditions ie the snow might not even be represented in the data yet. It may well be the subsequent revisions ous it down further.

 

Potential confirmed recession by the summer holidays. Buy your summer holiday euros now!

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

They're being obstinate, certainly, but perhaps such consequences and obstinacy should have been considered and accounted for with a plan in place before they happened?

 

Not really an area that attracts any kind of interest from me, but if you want to throw it in, yeah, of course - above argument for that too.

When people though T M was going to use defence as a negotiating chip it was considered disgraceful. Now the EU are doing it and people are saying you can't blame them. We have troops in countries like Poland and Latvia to discourage Russian expansionism, they're quite happy to trust us there.

[Rogstanley]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Feel free to take the points apart rather than attack the man.

The irony of that statement is mind blowing given your approch to Corbyn.

 

I'll give it a read later, some of us have to work for a living!

[Kopfkino]

48 minutes ago, toddybad said:

One week of snow.

 

 

 

The NHA said 30 construction days were lost to bad weather. Bit more than a week.

 

But they're pitiful figures as is the snow excuse. Per capita growth has actually turned negative. Spain with 0.7% growth which might prop up Eurozone growth which has showed plenty of signs of significant slowdown. 

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

They haven't given a figure but they did note that only construction and retail had been impacted by the weather, and both of those had falling output in January and February as well, when the weather was fine. 

 

They also note that some of the March data is estimated based on normal conditions ie the snow might not even be represented in the data yet. It may well be the subsequent revisions ous it down further.

 

Potential confirmed recession by the summer holidays. Buy your summer holiday euros now!

If there is a recession it'll be a result of international events like the last one surely?

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

The irony of that statement is mind blowing given your approch to Corbyn.

 

I'll give it a read later, some of us have to work for a living!

It's 6pm in Oman

[Guest MattP]

Not watched this yet, she actually called it a costume?

 

 

[Rogstanley]

Just now, MattP said:

It's 6pm in Oman

I'm not in Oman. I never planned to be there yet.

 

Interesting quote from another Tim Congford article, the bloke whose work you'e just praised. Writing in 2008 he says "the slowdown in 2008 will only be a blip on the path to further prosperity"

 

Reality: economy barely recovered and declining, wages decimated, pound decimated 

 

I wish I could see the whole article and more of his articles from around that time. They look like a gold mine of terrible predictions.

[Rogstanley]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

If there is a recession it'll be a result of international events like the last one surely?

If there is an international recession caused by international factors then yes. Unfortunately almost everywhere else in the developed world is growing nicely. Looks like we're at the bottom of the league again. 

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, Webbo said:

When people though T M was going to use defence as a negotiating chip it was considered disgraceful. Now the EU are doing it and people are saying you can't blame them. We have troops in countries like Poland and Latvia to discourage Russian expansionism, they're quite happy to trust us there.

Not me. AFAIC every single aspect of the UK interaction with Europe was subject to change with this and either party discussing it in negotiations was and is necessary, not disgraceful.

 

It's just a shame that such things have become adversarial, but that might have been inevitable considering feelings on both sides and the seeming lack of planning from many different parties.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Webbo said:

If there is a recession it'll be a result of international events like the last one surely?

[Webbo]

7 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

If there is an international recession caused by international factors then yes. Unfortunately almost everywhere else in the developed world is growing nicely. Looks like we're at the bottom of the league again. 

Frankfurt am Main — On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi warned of "some moderation" in the eurozone’s growth pace, after a string of hard and soft data suggested that the region’s economy lost momentum at the start of 2018.

Since governors last met, a slew of economic data has signalled that the single currency area got off to a rocky start in 2018 after a robust 2017, complicating the ECB’s efforts to gradually exit its crisis-era stimulus measures.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/europe/2018-04-26-mario-draghi-warns-growth-in-eurozone-could-slow-after-downbeat-data/

[Guest]

Just now, Webbo said:

Frankfurt am Main — On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi warned of "some moderation" in the eurozone’s growth pace, after a string of hard and soft data suggested that the region’s economy lost momentum at the start of 2018.

Since governors last met, a slew of economic data has signalled that the single currency area got off to a rocky start in 2018 after a robust 2017, complicating the ECB’s efforts to gradually exit its crisis-era stimulus measures.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/europe/2018-04-26-mario-draghi-warns-growth-in-eurozone-could-slow-after-downbeat-data/

They still have significantly better growth than us though. There's no getting away from the fact growth has been hit since mid 2016 and we appear to be creeping towards recession. That may not happen, of course, but the ons figures are pitiful.

 

The real worry is that if we do enter recession, consumer confidence falls further, investor confidence falls further and things begin to escalate towards crisis.

 

With low interest rates, qe still in operation and record personal debts, there won't be a simple way out next time. The shit would really but the fan. Whilst I want to see the Tories lose office, I fear this sort of economic disaster would be even worse than 2008 and none of us who'll be unscathed.

 

Obviously I'm talking worst case scenario there but somebody in the government needs to do something to get the economy moving again. Perhaps the figures will get revised upwards, perhaps things will pick up through 2018, but the signs aren't good and the fact europe is slowing and Trump is starting trade wars does not help our case.

 

Put up whatever stats you like, you know the truth, the economy here in the UK has been moribund for the last 10 years and Brexit uncertainty, whilst not as bad as project fear suggested, has certainly taken it's toll on consumer confidence. The UK economy is not in great shape.

[Webbo]

9 minutes ago, toddybad said:

 

 

Put up whatever stats you like, you know the truth, the economy here in the UK has been moribund for the last 10 years and Brexit uncertainty, whilst not as bad as project fear suggested, has certainly taken it's toll on consumer confidence. The UK economy is not in great shape.

It's in considerably better shape than you predicted it would be in 18 months ago.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

53 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

The irony of that statement is mind blowing given your approch to Corbyn.

 

I'll give it a read later, some of us have to work for a living!

But Corbyn has proven himself time and time again to be a cvnt of the highest order. So no problem here. 

[breadandcheese]

41 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not watched this yet, she actually called it a costume?

To be fair to Diane Abbott, it's a slip of the tongue on the spot, rather than anything malicious and should be seen as such. 

 

More worrying would be this.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/abour-activist-suspended-jeremy-corbyn-reaction-marc-wadsworth-heckle-jewish-mp-a8325591.html 

 

Wadsworth claiming that "Jeremy Corbyn said he had “done nothing wrong’ and that the Labour leader’s team were “working behind the scenes” to help him."  

 

Asked whether he felt he had the support of Mr Corbyn and his team, Mr Wadsworth said: “When they called me on the first day of the hearing they told me that they’d been working behind the scenes, that what I said wasn’t antisemitism.

 

So one the one hand, Corbyn hides behind labour's disciplinary procedures for his inaction on antisemitism and talks about how he can't interfere in the process.  On the other, he is tries to work behind the scenes to do exactly that.  Is it any wonder that the Jewish community doesn't trust him and accuses him of duplicity when it comes to antisemitism?  

[Carl the Llama]

35 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not watched this yet, she actually called it a costume?

 

 

Very impressive Matt, you've actually found a topic on which objective people with no agenda to push would defend Diane bleeding Abbott.   This is my new favourite faux outrage of the year so far.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

49 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

If there is an international recession caused by international factors then yes. Unfortunately almost everywhere else in the developed world is growing nicely. Looks like we're at the bottom of the league again. 

Haven't France grown by 0.3% in the first quarters of the year. Looks like a global economic slowdown. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

Haven't France grown by 0.3% in the first quarters of the year. Looks like a global economic slowdown. 

Was the last crisis Labour's crisis or an international crisis? Remind me again.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

Very impressive Matt, you've actually found a topic on which objective people with no agenda to push would defend Diane bleeding Abbott.   This is my new favourite faux outrage of the year so far.

Isn't costume a legitimate words for dress? As in national dress/national costume?

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, breadandcheese said:

To be fair to Diane Abbott, it's a slip of the tongue on the spot, rather than anything malicious and should be seen as such. 

 

More worrying would be this.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/abour-activist-suspended-jeremy-corbyn-reaction-marc-wadsworth-heckle-jewish-mp-a8325591.html 

 

Wadsworth claiming that "Jeremy Corbyn said he had “done nothing wrong’ and that the Labour leader’s team were “working behind the scenes” to help him."  

 

Asked whether he felt he had the support of Mr Corbyn and his team, Mr Wadsworth said: “When they called me on the first day of the hearing they told me that they’d been working behind the scenes, that what I said wasn’t antisemitism.

 

So one the one hand, Corbyn hides behind labour's disciplinary procedures for his inaction on antisemitism and talks about how he can't interfere in the process.  On the other, he is tries to work behind the scenes to do exactly that.  Is it any wonder that the Jewish community doesn't trust him and accuses him of duplicity when it comes to antisemitism?  

So the party expelled him?

And he's a tosser?

But he mentioned Corbyn so suddenly his every word is true?

[breadandcheese]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

Isn't costume a legitimate words for dress? As in national dress/national costume?

Costume to my mind implies ridicule or something you wear to play at being something.  I wouldn't refer to a turban as a Sikh costume or a hijab as a Muslim costume.  Outfit or clothing are probably more appropriate words.