Buce Posted 16 July 2017 Posted 16 July 2017 Just now, Alf Bentley said: Analysis of Brexit prospects by Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator for the the FT - sounds dire: https://www.ft.com/content/bf0025aa-6720-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614 We have a Chief Economics Commentator?
Guest Posted 16 July 2017 Posted 16 July 2017 The Guardian view on the 1%: all gain, no pain https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/16/the-guardian-view-on-the-1-all-gain-no-pain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Guest Posted 16 July 2017 Posted 16 July 2017 Just now, toddybad said: The Guardian view on the 1%: all gain, no pain https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/16/the-guardian-view-on-the-1-all-gain-no-pain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard And as if to prove the point Low-paid should receive inflation-only rises, say business leaders https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/16/low-paid-should-receive-inflation-only-rises-say-business-leaders?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Buce Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 (edited) UK sleepwalking into food insecurity after Brexit, academics warn: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/uk-sleepwalking-into-food-insecurity-after-brexit-academics-say On the plus side, it should help with the obesity epidemic. Edited 17 July 2017 by Buce
Guest Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html
Captain... Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 53 minutes ago, Buce said: UK sleepwalking into food insecurity after Brexit, academics warn: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/uk-sleepwalking-into-food-insecurity-after-brexit-academics-say On the plus side, it should help with the obesity epidemic. It's almost as though this has not been fully thought through. So in the last few weeks we have had, leaving euratom, the fact our customs department are woefully underprepared to cope with the increase in demand, now this. All of this alongside the constant predictions of economic meltdown by experts, as well as a few saying it will be fine we will get trade deals with US and Australia really quickly. The more and more we look into it the more problems arise, and not just minor problems like bendy bananas, but the fact we won't be able to trade, we won't be able to feed ourselves, we won't be able to harvest the food we're growing, we won't have the staff to work in hospitals. To all the Brexiteers, at what point would you start to consider this a bad idea? At what point would you start to consider that it is not all scaremongering and fake news and not all of these experts can be wrong? At what point does the damage of Brexit outweigh the frustration of staying in the EU? 3
Buce Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Captain... said: It's almost as though this has not been fully thought through. Quote So in the last few weeks we have had, leaving euratom, the fact our customs department are woefully underprepared to cope with the increase in demand, now this. All of this alongside the constant predictions of economic meltdown by experts, as well as a few saying it will be fine we will get trade deals with US and Australia really quickly. The more and more we look into it the more problems arise, and not just minor problems like bendy bananas, but the fact we won't be able to trade, we won't be able to feed ourselves, we won't be able to harvest the food we're growing, we won't have the staff to work in hospitals. To all the Brexiteers, at what point would you start to consider this a bad idea? At what point would you start to consider that it is not all scaremongering and fake news and not all of these experts can be wrong? At what point does the damage of Brexit outweigh the frustration of staying in the EU? You are kidding, right? @Webbo et al will see Hell freeze over before they admit to that. Edited 17 July 2017 by Buce
Innovindil Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 6 minutes ago, Captain... said: It's almost as though this has not been fully thought through. So in the last few weeks we have had, leaving euratom, the fact our customs department are woefully underprepared to cope with the increase in demand, now this. All of this alongside the constant predictions of economic meltdown by experts, as well as a few saying it will be fine we will get trade deals with US and Australia really quickly. The more and more we look into it the more problems arise, and not just minor problems like bendy bananas, but the fact we won't be able to trade, we won't be able to feed ourselves, we won't be able to harvest the food we're growing, we won't have the staff to work in hospitals. To all the Brexiteers, at what point would you start to consider this a bad idea? At what point would you start to consider that it is not all scaremongering and fake news and not all of these experts can be wrong? At what point does the damage of Brexit outweigh the frustration of staying in the EU? In about 10-20 years when we can actually see the results, everyone knew there would be negative effects in the beginning. It has been considered. Again, no one expected it to be an easy ride. Never? 1
Rob1742 Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 Can't see brexit ever happening. If you see the negotiation tactics at the beginning, which came straight out of the book "how not to negotiate", I just can't see this ever happening. Too many parts to it, all of it aired in public, too much pressure on the present government, you can just see all this collapsing. I can see a new conservative PM coming in to try and get it through when May fails, then Labour coming in as the public want blood. Then the public realise Corbyn was all puff and wind and the public vote in the Conservatives again. All this within the next ten years.
Captain... Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 1 minute ago, Buce said: You are kidding, right? @Webbo et al will see hell freeze over before they admit to that. I'm not kidding, we all want what's best for the country, and ourselves, that includes Webbo. I'm just wondering what news if any would sway them. We have had experts predicting economic collapse, trade disasters, food shortages, labour shortages, every layer of negotiations brings out more complexity and more scope for problems. All of these can be argued, but I see nothing of the benefits Brexit will bring, just people arguing against the experts predicting problems.
Buce Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Captain... said: I'm not kidding, we all want what's best for the country, and ourselves, that includes Webbo. I'm just wondering what news if any would sway them. We have had experts predicting economic collapse, trade disasters, food shortages, labour shortages, every layer of negotiations brings out more complexity and more scope for problems. All of these can be argued, but I see nothing of the benefits Brexit will bring, just people arguing against the experts predicting problems. I'll not deny that. But the argument would be about what is best for the country, and like Innovindil's post above, it will be based on wait and see. Edited 17 July 2017 by Buce
Captain... Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 6 minutes ago, Innovindil said: In about 10-20 years when we can actually see the results, everyone knew there would be negative effects in the beginning. It has been considered. Again, no one expected it to be an easy ride. Never? What results of Brexit do you hope for in 10-20 years time? 10-20 years is a very long time especially if those 10-20 years include economic hardships, food shortages, labour shortages and irreversible damage to the economy and trade and to Britain's reputation on an international level. 1
Guest Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Rob1742 said: Can't see brexit ever happening. If you see the negotiation tactics at the beginning, which came straight out of the book "how not to negotiate", I just can't see this ever happening. Too many parts to it, all of it aired in public, too much pressure on the present government, you can just see all this collapsing. I can see a new conservative PM coming in to try and get it through when May fails, then Labour coming in as the public want blood. Then the public realise Corbyn was all puff and wind and the public vote in the Conservatives again. All this within the next ten years. There's a little bit of me wondering if brexit will fall apart. The test will be how negotiations go over the next 12-18 months (obviously). I do wonder whether the pubic mood could change and whether the government will fall through its attempts to pass brexit bills that mps won't support. I suspect that the hard brexiteers might be unhappy whether brexit happens or not. I just can't see the government not caving in on virtually every eu demand. I suspect we'll give up our immigration and ecj demands to get a good trade outcome. If they don't cave in then i suspect the public will turn if it looks like the country is in danger. If that happens a change of government would seem likely. Corbyn will immediately have to assess his position given his historical brexiteer mentality. If we crash out with a bad deal or no deal then the tories will be out of government for a generation. It will split their party too. Obviously if they pull off a good deal and a brexit that surprises me by not trashing the country then all of the above goes out of the window. These early rounds of negitiation will be very telling about the general direction of things. The last round appeared to be a resounding win for the eu. Edited 17 July 2017 by Guest
Buce Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 15 minutes ago, toddybad said: There's a little bit of me wondering if brexit will fall apart. The test will be how negotiations go over the next 12-18 months (obviously). I do wonder whether the pubic mood could change and whether the government will fall through its attempts to pass brexit bills that mps won't support. I suspect that the hard brexiteers might be happy whether brexit happens or not. I just can't see the government not caving in on virtually every eu demand. I suspect we'll give up our immigration and ecj demands to get a good trade outcome. If they don't cave in then i suspect the public will turn if it looks like the country is in danger. If that happens a change of government would seem likely. Corbyn will immediately have to assess his position given his historical brexiteer mentality. If we crash out with a bad deal or no deal then the tories will be out of government for a generation. It will split their party too. Obviously if they pull off a good deal and a brexit that surprises me by not trashing the country then all of the above goes out of the window. These early rounds of negitiation will be very telling about the general direction of things. The last round appeared to be a resounding win for the eu. I'm assuming this is a typo?
Guest Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 2 minutes ago, Buce said: I'm assuming this is a typo? Fixed
Guest Foxin_mad Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 39 minutes ago, Captain... said: What results of Brexit do you hope for in 10-20 years time? 10-20 years is a very long time especially if those 10-20 years include economic hardships, food shortages, labour shortages and irreversible damage to the economy and trade and to Britain's reputation on an international level. I voted remain and think Brexit is a bad idea even as an evil scumbag right wing nutcase tory voting poor hating shitbag. Something funny here you criticise me in an early post for making you into a Corbyn voting Marxist when you already are as proven by the above!! Which is absolutely fine and your choice BTW! but please just admit it! Unlike the left I do not believe that all those who dissent should be sent to the Gulags If you are true middle ground you do not believe any of this hyperbolic shit posted in the media. The media can always find an expert or 'think tank' willing to back up their agenda, especially the Guardian, and most academics are left leaning by nature. There will be some kind of deal with Europe, overall the economic impact on Europe for not doing a deal would also be very bad for them. The stories of hardships, food shortages and irreversible damage to the economy are most likely to be tripe. And if Europe decides to play funny buggers they the whole of Europe will be in a big recession. We are the 5th Biggest Economy, the 4th biggest and richest consumer market, we have a huge trade deficit! People will want to sell us stuff!! Whether it is Europe (German, French Cars, French Champagne, Cheese, Wine, Spanish Fruit and Veg, Olives etc) is entirely up to them, but there will be a queue of nations wanting to sell us their products if not. Long term, less migration could mean higher wages, a more self sufficient nation, more manufacturing and an increase in British made products for our own market, none of which is remotely bad. It may take time to adjust and there may possibly be a period of realignment.
Innovindil Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 39 minutes ago, Captain... said: What results of Brexit do you hope for in 10-20 years time? 10-20 years is a very long time especially if those 10-20 years include economic hardships, food shortages, labour shortages and irreversible damage to the economy and trade and to Britain's reputation on an international level. What do I hope for? Mmmmmmmmmmm companies that are here to start offering a decent wage again instead of an unlimited supply of foreign cheap labour, I understand that fruit pickers and car washers etc are needed, but the influx has definitely had a pretty big negative effect. (story time, can skip if not interested) I used to work at argos and the way people are treated there is on par with a slave work force, back in the day they used to offer permanent contracts which paid well, think the perm staff (the few that were left) were on £14/hr with decent holiday/pensions etc, now it's all agency staff which were on £7.50hr forced overtime no pensions etc and if there is ever a complaint you are warned "there's always someone else that wants a job". And that's true, because they can put up job advertisements in Poland and have a new wave of staff in short order. Free movement is great for businesses, but it's taken away the needed competition for workers. (end story time) Give farms the ability to grow gmo crops, I know it's somewhat frowned upon because the Americans do it, but the science behind it is good, and it could possibly give them an ability to grow a different variety of foodstuffs that wouldn't normally be viable to grow in the UK. I know we couldn't then sell the goods to the eu, but with the food imports we have already, the internal market for them is already there. Maybe then British farms could be viable without subsidiaries, who knows. Control the boarders? Already been said a million times, already covered the whole outside eu immigration a billion times in here. But outside the eu the government run out of excuses for not lowering it, I'm on the side of the fence where I believe the current levels are unsustainable, maybe not for the near future but long term. Adding a population the same of a large city every year can't be good for anyone, the roads around my home have already become a mess because my once tiny village keeps expanding with no provisions to ease congestion. Accountability? Seems every time a government does something shitty we hear "it's the eu's fault!". Or we hear a criminal can't be deported because an eu court has ruled he can't. The book has to stop here, our government, our courts should be in control of the people here. House prices falling? Lowering of the £? Both reported as negatives but as of right now I profit from both in different ways. Bit of a specific happy brexit side effect but the falling £ is (currently) great for exports, my workplace has about 18 months of back orders, which has never happened before, we usually work month/month - 3month/3month blocks. So that's a pretty good positive considering our base costs have hardly been increased. Might be temporary I really don't know, but for the immediate future it's brilliant. Just a few things I hope for, there's probably a million more but it's a Monday, brain not quite up to speed yet. Probably comes across as a bumbling mess but at least I tried.
Captain... Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 13 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said: Something funny here you criticise me in an early post for making you into a Corbyn voting Marxist when you already are as proven by the above!! Which is absolutely fine and your choice BTW! but please just admit it! Unlike the left I do not believe that all those who dissent should be sent to the Gulags Corbyn/Labour were not the remain party, Lib Dems were. Although I did vote Labour my MP is very anti-Brexit and was one that Corbyn kicked off the front bench for voting against it. So it was much easier to vote for her than a more Brexit supporting Labour MP. I'm also not saying I believe everything from every article proclaiming Brexit will be a disaster, but there are so many of them and coming up with more and more evidence of the negative way it will impact our country. My comments above are neither Corbynista nor Marxist, I genuinely want to know what benefits people think they will see from Brexit in 10-20 years time that will make the pain and cost of leaving worthwhile.
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 17 July 2017 Author Posted 17 July 2017 3 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said: Long term, less migration could mean higher wages, a more self sufficient nation, more manufacturing and an increase in British made products for our own market, none of which is remotely bad. It may take time to adjust and there may possibly be a period of realignment. The problem here however is the country isn't in the best place to go through that time of adjustment. Had Brexit been voted for on the back of a well functioning economy (possibly a moot point, because Brexit may not have won in this scenario) that would be one thing and a period of adjustment would be widely accepted, but the country has already been going through a long period of austerity adjustment and there is clear signs of unrest and revolt at this. This is presenting a growing underlying challenge for those in charge of Brexit in that they can't afford a period of realignment, it has to be smooth and fruitful straight off the bat. One of the ways to combat the negative effects of Brexit would be injected a significant government stimulus into the economy, which is a high risk/high reward strategy, but I'm not sure what other option there is. The other can of worms that Brexit has opened up within the United Kingdom is the question of identity and although initial threats of another Scottish independence referendum have been quelled for the time being, in my opinion the idea of independence will fester within Scotland, Wales over the next couple of decades. 1
Guest MattP Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 2 hours ago, Captain... said: It's almost as though this has not been fully thought through. So in the last few weeks we have had, leaving euratom, the fact our customs department are woefully underprepared to cope with the increase in demand, now this. All of this alongside the constant predictions of economic meltdown by experts, as well as a few saying it will be fine we will get trade deals with US and Australia really quickly. The more and more we look into it the more problems arise, and not just minor problems like bendy bananas, but the fact we won't be able to trade, we won't be able to feed ourselves, we won't be able to harvest the food we're growing, we won't have the staff to work in hospitals. To all the Brexiteers, at what point would you start to consider this a bad idea? At what point would you start to consider that it is not all scaremongering and fake news and not all of these experts can be wrong? At what point does the damage of Brexit outweigh the frustration of staying in the EU? Well it certainly won't be from reading 20 articles from vehemently pro-remain newspapers, that's for sure. As as been mentioned, I wouldn't even dream of judging this until ten years down the line, maybe even twenty, it's only by then we'll have a clearer indication not only of what we were prepared to do and managed to achieve as an independent nation, but also the route the EU took over that time and how it eventually managed to handle it's debt, unemployment and migrant crisis etc - We could do badly yet still have been better off being out. Although as I've stated before, there is almost no financial uncertainty I wouldn't take in exchange for what they ask, an fully independent country is my desire from Brexit, one that can do it's own trade deals, can never be overruled by a court in a foreign court and has full control over it's borders, no amount of money I'll gain will compensate for losing that. One thing that still baffles me on this though from a small number of posters is how they believe the IMF, CBI without question when it comes to so called "hard-Brexit" - but then are prepared to joyfully ignore it all when they tell us a Corbyn led government would also be a disaster.
Guest Foxin_mad Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 It could be argued that some of the negatives currently in the economy are a result of being in the EU, low wages for instance will be fuelled by cheap low skilled workers coming freely across Europe from the eastern block and pining down wages in construction, farming, etc. It 'could' be argued that having less staff to choose from may force companies to push up wages to keep the best workers. At the moment the economy is not that bad, we are still growing albeit slowly, inflation is still relatively low, we have record numbers in employment. We are taking a hit at the moment due to uncertainty but hopefully a good deal would help us push on. When there are call for government stimulus (more debt) where is the intended destination of this and what impact do you wish it to have? People should hold their nerve on saving money now so the young don't have to pay for it in the future, a few more years of growth, increasing employment and we will be running a surplus and paying down our debt. We can then begin to reap the benefits. Introducing a spend, debt tax government into the mix now is about the worst thing we could possibly do. It would have a terrible impact on our fiscal credibility as a nation for investment.
Guest MattP Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 Surprised no one posted this yesterday given it was in The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/16/labour-rebecca-long-bailey-brexit-cake-and-eat-it Quote The shadow business secretary has described the aim of Labour’s Brexit policy as “have our cake and eat it”, while conceding it would be difficult to keep the benefits of single market and customs union memberships without major concessions. Rebecca Long-Bailey said maintaining access to, or even membership of, the customs union and single market could prove problematic given the political realities of Brexit, but said Labour must be flexible in such areas. I remember Boris Johnson saying the same thing and being absolutely slaughtered, it really is time Labour told us what they would try to negotiate in this deal, I can see what that are doing and it's pretty smart, but they can't get away with this for two years.
Buce Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 3 minutes ago, MattP said: Well it certainly won't be from reading 20 articles from vehemently pro-remain newspapers, that's for sure. As as been mentioned, I wouldn't even dream of judging this until ten years down the line, maybe even twenty, it's only by then we'll have a clearer indication not only of what we were prepared to do and managed to achieve as an independent nation, but also the route the EU took over that time and how it eventually managed to handle it's debt, unemployment and migrant crisis etc - We could do badly yet still have been better off being out. Although as I've stated before, there is almost no financial uncertainty I wouldn't take in exchange for what they ask, an fully independent country is my desire from Brexit, one that can do it's own trade deals, can never be overruled by a court in a foreign court and has full control over it's borders, no amount of money I'll gain will compensate for losing that. One thing that still baffles me on this though from a small number of posters is how they believe the IMF, CBI without question when it comes to so called "hard-Brexit" - but then are prepared to joyfully ignore it all when they tell us a Corbyn led government would also be a disaster. Because they are part of the Establishment; they can see Brexit being a disaster for everyone, but they can also see that Corbyn would be a disaster for them.
Captain... Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 7 minutes ago, Innovindil said: Mmmmmmmmmmm companies that are here to start offering a decent wage again instead of an unlimited supply of foreign cheap labour, I understand that fruit pickers and car washers etc are needed, but the influx has definitely had a pretty big negative effect. (story time, can skip if not interested) I used to work at argos and the way people are treated there is on par with a slave work force, back in the day they used to offer permanent contracts which paid well, think the perm staff (the few that were left) were on £14/hr with decent holiday/pensions etc, now it's all agency staff which were on £7.50hr forced overtime no pensions etc and if there is ever a complaint you are warned "there's always someone else that wants a job". And that's true, because they can put up job advertisements in Poland and have a new wave of staff in short order. Free movement is great for businesses, but it's taken away the needed competition for workers. (end story time) That is going to happen in any oversubscribed labour market during a period of restricted economic growth. You want better minimum wage vote Corbyn, Brexit is no guarantee of that changing. It also relates to border control which I will come onto. GMO foods is a new one, if we leave the EU but stay in the EEA would we be prevented from growing GMO crops? I think that there is still enough doubt over the safety of GMO that I'm happy for it not to be in our food chain at the moment. Weakening the pound is another interesting one, something Japan did to the Yen deliberately to stimulate exports and tourism, it was deemed a risk, but ultimately successful. I can't see many economists advocating it, nor any government actively seeking to do it. As part of a coherent economic strategy then I could get behind it, but as an unintended consequence of a horribly mismanaged Brexit it is not something I see as a positive. Especially as our imports outweigh our exports. Same with house prices, as part of a coherent strategy, fine. An unintended consequence of Brexit, no thanks. Accountability, I can't disagree with you here, the Government has continually failed to address crucial social and economic issues and the blame is being placed on the EU. I don't see this as a reason to leave though I see it as a need for a better government. Finally border control, we have more control over our border than we choose to exert, we have done next to nothing to deal with immigration even though we do have the powers to control immigration from non eu countries, which accounts for as much as eu countries. The reason it hasn't been addressed is because we need migration for growth, and the staffing of hospitals etc. I do understand the border control argument but the facts behind it don't stack up. The government has even said not to expect immigration to fall post Brexit. Unless we are changing our whole economic policy to reducing our economic power, stopping growth, devaluing the pound and actually deliberately causing our economy to shrink? Are GMO foods, and a Government accountable for its own decisions really worth the economic turmoil and trade and movement restrictions predicted?
Guest MattP Posted 17 July 2017 Posted 17 July 2017 2 minutes ago, Buce said: Because they are part of the Establishment; they can see Brexit being a disaster for everyone, but they can also see that Corbyn would be a disaster for them. The IMF was quote clear in stating Corbyn's policy would have bad consequences for all sections of the taxpaying public and for all including small business. That's not exactly just being bad for the establishment is it?
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