Jon the Hat Posted 13 July 2017 Share Posted 13 July 2017 12 hours ago, Alf Bentley said: I find the HMRC statement unclear. Are they saying that the new system will definitely be ready or that the old system will cope, if necessary? The words "the service remains fully capable of dealing with..." suggest the latter. Yet the National Audit Office has specifically said that post-Brexit there would be about 255m customs declarations, but that the old system (currently handling 55m) could only cope with 100m. They don't seem to be querying the ability of the new system to handle 255m declarations, but are questioning whether it is likely to be ready by March 2019. It's like the auditors telling a firm that there is a major problem with their accounts that risks causing a catastrophe in 20 months time - and the firm responding that there is no problem. There are ways in which there might be no problem: e.g. if we don't leave the Customs Union (but we currently plan to do so - and our ability to make new trade deals depends on us doing so) or if the Brexit process is extended by a transitional period beyond March 2019 (but that will depend on deals being done over the "divorce bill" and other issues, where the 2 parties are currently miles apart). There will be brinksmanship in the Brexit negotiations and the possibility that there will be no deal or that any deal may not be finalised until March 2019. So, HMRC will have to plan on the basis that we're leaving in March 2019 and that the new system needs to be in place by then (unless they're questioning the Auditor's view that the old system couldn't cope). New government I.T. systems don't have a great track record for problems & delays. Auditors are paid to point out the risks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 13 July 2017 Share Posted 13 July 2017 24 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: Auditors are paid to point out the risks. Maybe I'm being thick, but I don't understand your point, Jon. The Auditors (or NAO, in this case) have done the job they're paid to do and pointed out the risks - massive risks to the national economy and to countless thousands of traders, if they're right. The auditee (HMRC) has denied that the risk exists in a rather vague manner. I'm assuming that the NAO know what they're talking about and are identifying a real, important risk. Maybe not, maybe they've done their job poorly or are just covering their backs and have raised a false scare. Or maybe HMRC just said what they said for public consumption and will address the risk identified behind the scenes. As I've said, there are also circumstances in which the risk wouldn't matter (if we stayed in the Customs Union or Brexit is extended by a transitional period). On the face of it, it sounds an extremely serious risk. But only time will tell, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kopfkino Posted 13 July 2017 Share Posted 13 July 2017 (edited) 10 hours ago, toddybad said: What troubles me is the tax argument essentially says that rich people and business owners are dishonest so we have to charge then less tax to appease them. Whether though taxation, borrowing or a combination we do need to start spending more. It really is worth spending more money now to bring about greater growth. Ive just seen (for some reason i cant copy them over to here) office of budgetry responsibility figures showing that if gdp and receipt growth rises only 0.1% slower than predicted then the national debt in 50 years would be 50% higher than it would otherwise be. Now many of you hate the high national debt so I'd have thought this sort of statistic would lead you to conclude that growth is more important to debt reduction than cutting immediate payments. The OBR stats were provided to explain why the government should accept a high eu divorce bill if it allows growth to stay on track. The argument is equally valid elsewhere though, spending that encourages growth is a good thing and the growth more than covers the costs. I enjoy that you didn't wish to discuss the OBR encouraging the government to cut the deficit in these years of growth, nor its encouragement for the chancellor to continue austerity to build a "fiscal space" to enable to government to react to the next slowdown. Nor did you mention anything about the OBR pointing out, as I already have done, that index-linked gilts are problematic for your method of inflating away the debt, especially as we current have an unusually high level of these indexed gilts. Or that rate rises will mean that debt held by BoE becomes more problematic. Or that the government purse pretty much fails the stress tests that the BoE uses on the banks. Edited 14 July 2017 by KingGTF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 Interesting but very long read: Globalisation: the rise and fall of an idea that swept the world https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/14/globalisation-the-rise-and-fall-of-an-idea-that-swept-the-world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 NHS holds on to top spot in healthcare survey https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/14/nhs-holds-on-to-top-spot-in-healthcare-survey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 7 minutes ago, toddybad said: NHS holds on to top spot in healthcare survey https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/14/nhs-holds-on-to-top-spot-in-healthcare-survey Seems the Tories are doing a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMX11 Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 17 minutes ago, toddybad said: NHS holds on to top spot in healthcare survey https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/14/nhs-holds-on-to-top-spot-in-healthcare-survey Health 'outcomes' are still crap. It is good until you actually get ill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryn Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 (edited) 32 minutes ago, SMX11 said: Health 'outcomes' are still crap. It is good until you actually get ill. Would you care to elaborate on your viewpoint? Edit: having now read the article I understand this is a flippant remark in response to what the study actually says. Edited 14 July 2017 by Bryn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryn Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 29 minutes ago, Webbo said: Seems the Tories are doing a good job. Yeah they're in there everyday with sleeves rolled up pitching in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain... Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 20 minutes ago, Webbo said: Seems the Tories are doing a good job. If you read past the headline it clearly states that we have declined from last year. "The UK came first in four of the 11 categories. It was judged to deliver the safest care, be the best at “care processes”, provide the most affordable care and offer the most equity. However, the gap between the UK and the next best-placed countries is narrowing. Those four categories are only half of the eight in which the UK came top in 2014, when the fund last undertook its in-depth multi-country research." It is clear that the NHS' success is despite the Tories and their cuts not because of them. Read again the post about a nurse at breaking point, she and many others are working their arses off in understaffed underfunded hospitals to keep us safe. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/19/96-per-cent-hospitals-have-nurse-shortages-official-figures/amp/ " The analysis by Health Service Journal tracked NHS data from 2014/15 to 2016/17. In total, 214 of 224 acute hospitals failed to fully fill their day shifts last October- a rate of 96 per cent - while while 190 (85 per cent) were understaffed at night. Both figures are the worst since tracking began in 2014." We may still have a better health service than Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands, USA but our levels of service are clearly declining and the Government shows no sign of doing anything about it, they will most likely just trot out these headline findings as some sort of justification for their cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 7 minutes ago, Bryn said: Yeah they're in there everyday with sleeves rolled up pitching in. The Guardian says we're the best in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryn Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 1 minute ago, Webbo said: The Guardian says we're the best in the world. And like any study it needs to be put into context, and that context is that the NHS continues to succeed in the areas it is fundamentally designed to (its free at the point of care to all) but outcomes are not improving when given the resources thus country has and the state of technology and research they should be, and in the wider context that it is hemorrhaging the staff that keep it going and having its equitable nature threatened by Tory policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 I've noticed things never need to be put in context when bad things are reported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Bryn Posted 14 July 2017 Popular Post Share Posted 14 July 2017 Have you really? Or are my posts on these matters actually filled with context, and is that just your way of dismissing the argument because you haven't got any particular substance to it and don't really know what you're arguing about? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMX11 Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 17 minutes ago, Bryn said: Would you care to elaborate on your viewpoint? Edit: having now read the article I understand this is a flippant remark in response to what the study actually says. I am saying that once you get a serious illness in this country the outcome i.e. do you survive is lower quartile and always has been. If we don't recognise this and keep clinging to headlines like this it won't get any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryn Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 Just now, SMX11 said: I am saying that once you get a serious illness in this country the outcome i.e. do you survive is lower quartile and always has been. If we don't recognise this and keep clinging to headlines like this it won't get any better. You are right, although again it has to be put into the context of our outcomes aren't "bad" as such, just lagging behind other countries and not improving like they should. I remember the last time this study was published was my first year as a doctor. Most of my seniors discussing it don't like it because it's misleading when taken at face value. We don't have the best health service in the world by most measures, it's just that ours is free and universal which of course is hugely important, but it skews the impression of the headline. What it's saying and most would agree, is that the NHS delivers pretty good outcomes, which are applicable and affordable to the whole population. But it could do a whole lot better on most tangible measures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 3 minutes ago, Bryn said: Have you really? Or are my posts on these matters actually filled with context, and is that just your way of dismissing the argument because you haven't got any particular substance to it and don't really know what you're arguing about? I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of some people. Constantly posting articles saying we're going to hell in a hand cart and then when there's a bit of good news it's " ah well, that doesn't count". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain... Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 15 hours ago, Foxin_mad said: know tax is not a punishment, what is a punishment is high tax. Nope, taxes are a method of wealth collection and distribution, not a punishment. Raising taxes are done to increase the value of the public pot to provide a better society for all, including large companies that rely on a country's infrastructure and workforce. The level of taxation isn't punitive, that isn't how the world works. If you move to a bigger house in a better location you expect to pay more rent. At the moment the country is in a huge amount of debt, austerity can only go so far and it feels like it as the point of breaking and we are still running a massive deficit. The other way to deal with a huge deficit is increase tax revenue. This could be VAT, or income tax, but these would hit people on a personal level, or we could hit the profits of companies. Or run the country into the ground with wave after wave of cuts and austerity. Seems a no brainer to me. Finally you can reel in that Brexit straw man, it is a separate discussion and the distinction needs to be made between the domestic market and international, except to say that Corbyn stated in his manifesto that staying in the single market was his priority, so in a world where Corbyn is "punishing" companies he is also offering them tariff free access to the biggest trading bloc on the planet. The reality of the situation will not be known until the next GE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 On 12/07/2017 at 22:51, Izzy Muzzett said: I do wonder how people ever managed before the invention of payday lenders. Still seems a relatively new phenomenon to me. At the times in my life when I've struggled to put food on the table, I just stopped spending on things I didn't need and we went without. And I also worked more hours and did other jobs to supplement my income. I realise I sound unsympathetic but I've always had a problem with people who don't take personal responsibility and end up blaming everyone else except themselves. I think it goes back a fair while, Izzy. On 12/07/2017 at 23:12, Izzy Muzzett said: Having a) had the bad luck of a major illness myself that resulted in two years in hospital not earning and b) made redundant from well paid jobs twice, I know they have a bearing on the life and economic status of an individual. I also know that people have the capability to make their own luck in life and bounce back out of sheer grit, determination and resilience. Some do, many don't. Are we to just turn our backs on those that fall? That's not society, that's just the law of the jungle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 33 minutes ago, Buce said: I think it goes back a fair while, Izzy. Some do, many don't. Are we to just turn our backs on those that fall? That's not society, that's just the law of the jungle No, we shouldn't turn our backs on those who fall. I do realise I may have come across as insensitive to those who are genuinely struggling and that wasn't my intention. But I do think that some people just give up a bit on life sometimes and don't realise what they're truly capable of achieving if they really put their mind to it. I suppose it's my "I get knocked down, but I get up again" mentality but some are just not capable of getting back up again on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 2 hours ago, Webbo said: I've noticed things never need to be put in context when bad things are reported. 2 hours ago, Webbo said: I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of some people. Constantly posting articles saying we're going to hell in a hand cart and then when there's a bit of good news it's " ah well, that doesn't count". You only read what toy want to. Hence your 'terrifying ' post thr other day that contained a link to no terrifying information. Yesterdsy the obr - set up by osborne - reported that the econony is in worse shape now to deal with economic troubles than it was in 2007. The toriy's entire spiel relies upon their economic competence and fixing the roof. Perhaps you could provide the context to make this a positive reinforcement of the tory's expert handling of the economy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 6 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said: No, we shouldn't turn our backs on those who fall. I do realise I may have come across as insensitive to those who are genuinely struggling and that wasn't my intention. But I do think that some people just give up a bit on life sometimes and don't realise what they're truly capable of achieving if they really put their mind to it. I suppose it's my "I get knocked down, but I get up again" mentality but some are just not capable of getting back up again on their own. Fine but why is your definition of achievement only defined by salary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl the Llama Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 1 hour ago, Webbo said: I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of some people. Constantly posting articles saying we're going to hell in a hand cart and then when there's a bit of good news it's " ah well, that doesn't count". It's good news that our scores have dropped and previously raised areas of concern haven't been improved upon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 2 minutes ago, toddybad said: Fine but why is your definition of achievement only defined by salary? Where did I say my definition of achievement is defined only by salary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 14 July 2017 Share Posted 14 July 2017 On 12/07/2017 at 23:04, Izzy Muzzett said: Thanks for letting me in on the little secret mate Now I'm going to sound REALLY insensitive... I'm sorry that your debt was brought on through splitting with your partner. But that's not the fault of the Tories or the economy, that's because you couldn't make your relationship work. I know there's lots of reasons why people get into debt - shit happens and that's life. If peoples outgoings exceed their income then maybe they need to focus on increasing their income. Educate yourself, better yourself, train, read, graft, research, apply for better paying jobs, take a risk, set up your own business, reach your potential in life. "If it's to be, it's up to me" as some wise man once said... Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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