Betting Thread

[Leeds Fox]

13 minutes ago, StanSP said:

@The Bear do you have a particular method of what teams to pick in your freeze accas? I'm actually impressed how many times you succeed

 

What's your tactic, so to speak?! 

I can’t answer for @The Bear obviously. But it’s a double gamble, the accumulator and one (when I did it after seeing his early winners) guess at a price that’s generous and pray for an early goal. I don’t think you can really do any amount of homework that tells you which lesser team will go ahead against superior opposition. That part is luck. The other is where you can make the most of what you can make if the big odds guess comes in. 

 

I found the frequency of losers was so high, it was better to go big on something I actually fancied rather than a true gamble with the outsider and a bunch of odds on, usually under priced sides.

 

I’m generally terrible so I do check in here a lot for value and seeing any new methods.

 

For all I said about profit making earlier, I punt because I enjoy it (or not). 
 

If anyone fancies a bit of a syndicate next season or over the Euros, I’d be game. I’m sure you lot can pick more winners than me 

Edited 13 May by Leeds Fox

[The Bear]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

@The Bear do you have a particular method of what teams to pick in your freeze accas? I'm actually impressed how many times you succeed

 

What's your tactic, so to speak?! 

If you're talking about outsiders it's purely based on price. 7/1 or bigger usually Anything over 10/1 is an auto pick. 

 

If its smaller price (5-7s) it's generally one I fancy based on their 5 game form and how many goals they've scored in those. Preferably at home too. Then I put a few bigger prices in with them to get the odds up. I might do one of those a week. 

[Dan LCFC]

Alaves and Dundee tonight. Think possibly Spurs too.

[The Bear]

I've just had Dundee because of Rangers' injury issues. That and I'm saving my last bit of bank for Sunday. 

 

There's a decent one Thursday night though with Almeria at home to Barcelona. Only 6/1 though unfortunately. 

[CWC1983]

10 hours ago, The Bear said:

I've just had Dundee because of Rangers' injury issues. That and I'm saving my last bit of bank for Sunday. 

 

There's a decent one Thursday night though with Almeria at home to Barcelona. Only 6/1 though unfortunately. 

Dundee up. 

[CWC1983]

10 hours ago, The Bear said:

I've just had Dundee because of Rangers' injury issues. That and I'm saving my last bit of bank for Sunday. 

 

There's a decent one Thursday night though with Almeria at home to Barcelona. Only 6/1 though unfortunately. 

x 2 😅😅

[The Bear]

Aye. Looking good so far. 

 

Also had a cheaper pair of accas with Alaves and Spurs.

[The Bear]

Cashout offers really are dreadful. Less than 50% with 4 out of 5 legs currently winning. Gonna let it run though as I still expect there to be a goal in the Man City game. 

 

 

 

Edited 14 May by The Bear

[The Bear]

Boom! 

[The Bear]

There are some really good bankers on Sunday too that you can't see them not winning. Arsenal and Man City will both win at home against poor teams as they need to, and Liverpool in Klopp's last game will beat an in poor form Wolves easily.

 

That's 3 so only need one more, maybe 2 to go with the outsider picks.

[Wycombe Fox]

My Dad did a couple of league accumulator bets at the start of the season.

 

Bet 1 was Man City, Leicester, Portsmouth and Stockport to win their respective leagues. The bookie paid out early on this one because of Man City. He won £4500

 

Bet 2 was the same as Bet 1 but with Arsenal instead of Man City.

 

If Arsenal win the Prem on Sunday he'll bag another £5000!!

 

C'mon Arsenal!

[Dan LCFC]

On 14/05/2024 at 22:09, The Bear said:

There are some really good bankers on Sunday too that you can't see them not winning. Arsenal and Man City will both win at home against poor teams as they need to, and Liverpool in Klopp's last game will beat an in poor form Wolves easily.

 

That's 3 so only need one more, maybe 2 to go with the outsider picks.

I think another possible tactic for this going forward, which is a good shout actually, is to make the intended freeze pick game #5 - so at least that way you'll guarantee you don't waste a freeze on a bet that lost. It's probably your best chance of landing the massive wins as well.

 

Tempted to stick a few together for the weekend.

 

I did £20 on Dundee the other night and just cashed out for £262. Just feels unbelievably easy at times.

[The Bear]

3 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

I think another possible tactic for this going forward, which is a good shout actually, is to make the intended freeze pick game #5 - so at least that way you'll guarantee you don't waste a freeze on a bet that lost. It's probably your best chance of landing the massive wins as well.

 

Tempted to stick a few together for the weekend.

 

I did £20 on Dundee the other night and just cashed out for £262. Just feels unbelievably easy at times.

Certainly an idea, though it would probably mean choosing a game on a later day for the freeze leg which isn't always possible or easy. 

 

I've had that once before where it's been leg no.5 and as soon as you freeze it, it let's you cash out the full amount of the return. 

Edited 16 May by The Bear

[The Bear]

Ok here's one. Let's say Almeria score first against Barca and you freeze it. Would the cash out on this be bigger or smaller than if you put 4 legs of 1.1 (1/10) along with Almeria? Almeria play Thursday and the rest are on Friday. 

 

 

 

Edited 16 May by The Bear

[Dan LCFC]

17 hours ago, The Bear said:

Ok here's one. Let's say Almeria score first against Barca and you freeze it. Would the cash out on this be bigger or smaller than if you put 4 legs of 1.1 (1/10) along with Almeria? Almeria play Thursday and the rest are on Friday. 

 

 

 

I've been wondering exactly this - I've never actually known the answer to that.

[The Bear]

59 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

I've been wondering exactly this - I've never actually known the answer to that.

I'd probably assume their algorithm would recognise the likelihood of it coming in and adjusting the cashout down accordingly. After all that's what happens when the closer you get to a leg or acca coming in, it then goes up automatically. 

[Dan LCFC]

10 hours ago, The Bear said:

I'd probably assume their algorithm would recognise the likelihood of it coming in and adjusting the cashout down accordingly. After all that's what happens when the closer you get to a leg or acca coming in, it then goes up automatically. 

But then on the flip side the potential returns are much higher. I'm going to try and find out about this and see what I find.

[Nugent]

Giving this freeze a go today, seems to be some nice fixtures for it! Five bets:

 

- Augsburg 9/1

- St Mirren 12/1

- Darmstadt 16/1

- Monchengladbach 19/2

- GD Chaves 20/1

 

Remaining four legs on each bet consisting of the short priced faves in the Prem tomorrow to give a cash out opportunity for profit if any of the above score first. 

[The Bear]

Bloody ADO Den Haag did me out of £230 today. 2-0 up into the 2nd half and they end up drawing 2-2 with a man sent off. So annoying!

[Dan LCFC]

19 hours ago, Nugent said:

Giving this freeze a go today, seems to be some nice fixtures for it! Five bets:

 

- Augsburg 9/1

- St Mirren 12/1

- Darmstadt 16/1

- Monchengladbach 19/2

- GD Chaves 20/1

 

Remaining four legs on each bet consisting of the short priced faves in the Prem tomorrow to give a cash out opportunity for profit if any of the above score first. 

St Mirren landed. I was on all of them except for Gladbach. The beauty of it again - you only need to land one of them to profit.

 

I've settled I think on the method of picking four games that finish before the start of my 'freeze' game. That way you can guarantee you won't waste a freeze on an eventual dud while retaining the possibility of a maximum payout. It does make things a bit of a grind beforehand and it's absolutely shite if you back a losing acca filler but I think it's the most effective way to maximise your freezes.

 

I had all four of those accas just needing the team to take the lead for my winner. St Mirren going ahead landed me £280. I needed Augsburg for £210, Darmstadt for £330 and Chaves for £775! All lost but still around £200-250 up just today.

 

Absolutely tonnes of games for people to go for today. I've gone for the ones in bold, but I think you could justify any of them really. I have three freezes left:

 

Eibar v Cartagena (8/1)

Feyenoord v Excelsior (9/1)

PSV v RKC Waalwijk (11/1)
Zwolle v FC Twente (19/2)

Hamburg v Nurnberg (6/1)

Arsenal v Everton (12/1)

Liverpool v Wolves (14/1)

Man City v West Ham (20/1)

Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano (10/1)

Lyon v Strasbourg (6/1)

 

Got to go hard today I think because there may never be a better day than this from now for it. Loads of leagues finishing and sooner or later they are going to nerf this. It's like a free money glitch.

Edited 19 May by Dan LCFC

[The Bear]

So did you do foreign leagues like China, Australia etc for your bankers? They are normally played early morning/lunchtime. Or did you just use the previous day's games?

 

I'm looking forward to today. Several good bankers and like you say lots of big priced outsiders. 

 

I also have three freezes left. 

Edited 19 May by The Bear

[The Bear]

I'll add:

 

Eibar v Cartagena FC 8/1

 

Spanish Segunda. Cartagena have won their last 4 games on the spin. Not sure how they are that price tbh. Last time they played this fixture last year, Cartegena won 0-3.

 

Edit - Missed it, it's at the top of your list... 👍

Edited 19 May by The Bear

[Innovindil]

 

Figured I'd do a full 10 team prem acca for the last day. Get the **** in. 

[The Bear]

20 hours ago, The Bear said:

Bloody ADO Den Haag did me out of £230 today. 2-0 up into the 2nd half and they end up drawing 2-2 with a man sent off. So annoying!

And again FFS. Unreal. I was literally thinking I'll cash out, and thought nah I'll let this one run and cash out once they've won. 

 

[The Bear]

I'm just waiting for Atletico to beat Osasuna for £700 and Osasuna score first....

 

And to rub salt in I had another acca with Osasuna ready as the freeze that would have been an auto £400 if it wasn't for Viktoria Berlin conceding as above.

 

My bad luck is absolutely unreal recently.