The People's Hero Posted 21 January 2008 Posted 21 January 2008 That truely is delightful For enjoying my rather impressive wordsmithery, I'm going to present you with a fondant fancy. Welcome to my plane of being. It's lonely up here.
Bellend Sebastian Posted 21 January 2008 Posted 21 January 2008 The markets always crash just when I haven't got any money to put into them. It always works out in the end. Won't stop our clients banging on about it for ages though
James. Posted 21 January 2008 Author Posted 21 January 2008 The markets always crash just when I haven't got any money to put into them. I wouldn't put my money anywhere near these markets. I'd be interested to know why you would...
Bellend Sebastian Posted 21 January 2008 Posted 21 January 2008 I wouldn't put my money anywhere near these markets. I'd be interested to know why you would... Because I don't believe they were significantly overvalued, if at all, before everyone started to panic. I've no idea where the bottom of the market is, but this smells of over-selling to me
James. Posted 21 January 2008 Author Posted 21 January 2008 Because I don't believe they were significantly overvalued, if at all, before everyone started to panic. I've no idea where the bottom of the market is, but this smells of over-selling to me There may be a small, short-term bounce as a result of buying by people with a similar mindset to yourself, particularly if there is an unplanned rate cut by the Fed. And on a stock specific level there may now be some cheap valuations that will tempt people back in. Overall though there are some fundamental issues such as the impending US recession, lower than expected economic data, a continuing credit crisis and a lack of decoupling of emerging markets from the US that make the medium-long term look pretty bleak.
Bellend Sebastian Posted 21 January 2008 Posted 21 January 2008 Well, it depends who you speak to but one of the more seasoned commentators I speak to (and historically has called things pretty well) says that the US economy is in a more robust state than the markets seem to think and although things will slow down this year it won't be that dramatic, and that there's plenty of scope for the Fed to do whatever's needed to shore things up. It's all doom and gloom at the moment, but I cannot see what's changed so fundamentally in the last couple of weeks for things to go so tits up so much so quickly. I have a very simplistic view of markets in that its easy to make money if you stay in for long enough, and I'd rather go in when the market is more than 15 per cent lower than it was a couple of months ago. I can afford to be blase about these things, I'm not coming up to retirement and worried about my pension fund, but I've been in the industry long enough that at these times when everyone soils themselves those that don't usually end up making loads out of it. I'd like it to be me, but I never have the cash when it matters
Daggers Posted 21 January 2008 Posted 21 January 2008 Does she know all 24 odd thousand Leicester fans who regularly attend. Sitting next to her most makes one feel like a Royal attendant in waiting as everyone comes up to be introduced to her at half-time. E3 is Lisa's royal court. Fact.
AoWW Posted 21 January 2008 Posted 21 January 2008 For enjoying my rather impressive wordsmithery, I'm going to present you with a fondant fancy.Welcome to my plane of being. It's lonely up here. I like fondant fancies, too.
James. Posted 22 January 2008 Author Posted 22 January 2008 Carnage in Asia. As I speak Hang Seng down over 8% (21% on the year). Nikkei down nearly 6%. India had lost 14.5% at one point. Well, it depends who you speak to but one of the more seasoned commentators I speak to (and historically has called things pretty well) says that the US economy is in a more robust state than the markets seem to think and although things will slow down this year it won't be that dramatic, and that there's plenty of scope for the Fed to do whatever's needed to shore things up. It's all doom and gloom at the moment, but I cannot see what's changed so fundamentally in the last couple of weeks for things to go so tits up so much so quickly.I have a very simplistic view of markets in that its easy to make money if you stay in for long enough, and I'd rather go in when the market is more than 15 per cent lower than it was a couple of months ago. I can afford to be blase about these things, I'm not coming up to retirement and worried about my pension fund, but I've been in the industry long enough that at these times when everyone soils themselves those that don't usually end up making loads out of it. I'd like it to be me, but I never have the cash when it matters There will definitely be an opportunity to make money but the challenge is knowing when that opportunity will arise isn't it. As I said I wouldn't go anywehere near the markets at the minute. There may be a short term bounce (unlikely today) but I think we'll see them fall further yet. Will be a very difficult year overall I'd say.
SOCCERROO FOX Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Stocks have copped a wholloping over here, which is not great but personally i will just ride it out and hope it sends the property market down over here as it is currently at an all time high and i'm waiting to invest
Bellend Sebastian Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 FTSE 100's up 43 points now, having apparently opened a couple of hundred down. Have we bottomed out or this is a dead cat bounce? I've no idea. The bargain hunters are out in force though
Steven Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 FTSE 100's up 43 points now, having apparently opened a couple of hundred down. Have we bottomed out or this is a dead cat bounce? I've no idea. The bargain hunters are out in force though Dead cat bounce.
SOCCERROO FOX Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Im going to go to a bar near work called the trader bar where beer prices rise and fall like the stockmarket in the hope of really cheap drinks
The People's Hero Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Dead cat bounce. The cat is dead and so is not rising of it's own volition, merely due to the height from which it has fallen. I'd imagine it will mean that the 'recovery' will be short lived.
James. Posted 22 January 2008 Author Posted 22 January 2008 FTSE 100's up 43 points now, having apparently opened a couple of hundred down. Have we bottomed out or this is a dead cat bounce? I've no idea. The bargain hunters are out in force though There's a rumour going round that the Fed, ECB and BofE are going to meet today and announce a joint rate cut. Would be surprised if that happened but could see Fed cutting ahead of their meeting next week. If that happens there'll be somewhat of a rally I would expect, although I still think medium term looks poor. FTSE back down again! 60 points lower.
Daggers Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Someone clever needs to explain this to me... This all results from the sub-prime over-lending and the fear in Banks preventing them from lending to each other, but...although I accept the liquidity of an institution is effected if they are holding bundles of bonds of defaulting mortgagees don't they still retain the premises the loans have defaulted on? Therefore, are they not still viable as institutions to lend to and therefore isn't all of this panic selling just a load of bollocks? I don't get it.
The People's Hero Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Someone clever needs to explain this to me...This all results from the sub-prime over-lending and the fear in Banks preventing them from lending to each other, but...although I accept the liquidity of an institution is effected if they are holding bundles of bonds of defaulting mortgagees don't they still retain the premises the loans have defaulted on? Therefore, are they not still viable as institutions to lend to and therefore isn't all of this panic selling just a load of bollocks? I don't get it. I think it is indeed a case of panic selling, perhaps exarcerbated by the now seemingly readily available figures in the news regarding the bail out with Northern Rock needed and that Lloyds TSB had previously requested and been refused. Having said that, I always thought that the sort of people who invested their money in this sort of stuff knew what they were doing and wouldn't panic in this way. As has been said, any efficient market relies on the rational and reasoned actions of it's investors (both buyers and sellers). I don't really get it either. I don't know much about it anyway, I'm hoping Monk/JtB or someone can give me a layman's explanation!
Steven Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 There's a rumour going round that the Fed, ECB and BofE are going to meet today and announce a joint rate cut. Would be surprised if that happened but could see Fed cutting ahead of their meeting next week. If that happens there'll be somewhat of a rally I would expect, although I still think medium term looks poor.FTSE back down again! 60 points lower. No. That will be bad for the long term economy.
The People's Hero Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Is there anyway that this could somehow make me better off. If so, how? I'll cross my fingers and do some sort of ceremonial dance. That'll work.
Monk Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Half tempted to take a punt on James' tip but to be fair if there is no rate cut today I could still lose a fair wad of cash!
The People's Hero Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Half tempted to take a punt on James' tip but to be fair if there is no rate cut today I could still lose a fair wad of cash! Go on, take a punt.
Monk Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 OK, but you have to realise I'm not a speculator. I bet you one flapjack and a box of welsh cakes per 10pt rise in the ftse for the rest of the day.
Bellend Sebastian Posted 22 January 2008 Posted 22 January 2008 Is there anyway that this could somehow make me better off.If so, how? I'd always recommend investing for a minimum of five years, just so you can ride out the sort of shit that's happening at the moment, so you'd have to be a patient boy
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