marty78 Posted 2 October 2012 Posted 2 October 2012 Fair do's for the effort but league positions and this stage of the season can vary wildly from game to game. Absolutely. I don't think statistics like this mean that much anyway but I am getting paid for doing it so why not.
davieG Posted 2 October 2012 Author Posted 2 October 2012 Absolutely. I don't think statistics like this mean that much anyway but I am getting paid for doing it so why not. I can't argue with that.
Thracian Posted 2 October 2012 Posted 2 October 2012 From Foxblogger - http://foxblogger.wo...y-key-numbers/? Leicester got their first away win of the league campaign and won three league matches for the first time in 19 months. This was a big win for Foxes who saw the ball break for them just at the right moments. They climb into the playoff positions for the second time this season – as many times as they managed in the entirety of the last campaign. Now to stay there… The key numbers; 10 – A total of 15 points from eight matches represents Leicester’s best start at this level for a decade. Not since 2002/03 have City won so many points from their opening run of games. Back then six wins and a draw (and an oft forgotten 6-1 pummelling at Ipswich) saw Leicester in 2nd place. 19 points would have put City top this season, but if the weekend is anything to go by it looks like no-one will run away with the Championship this year. 21 – Nigel Pearson has used 21 players so far this season. Only Derby County (19) have used fewer. The City boss has named an unchanged starting eleven for each of these last three victories. The side is starting to pick itself. 58 – Leicester held the ball better in this match than in any other this season, a statistic that confirms (despite the defections) that City were worthy of their win. Only once so far (at Blackburn) have City’s opponents had the advantage in terms of possession. No surprised there but complete vindication of all of us who believe that Pearson should be allowed to get on with his job of providing us with a proper football team again and, hopefully, giving us some stability and self-respect along the way.
davieG Posted 15 October 2012 Author Posted 15 October 2012 More interesting stuff from foxblogger - http://foxblogger.wordpress.com/2012/10/15/ten-games-in-and-leicester-city-are-striking-all-the-right-notes/? Ten games in and Leicester City are striking all the right notes Posted on 15/10/2012 At the start of the season this blog named five benchmarks that would give fans an idea how much improvement had taken place at Leicester City over the summer. With 10 games gone, and an international break allowing for some reflection, now seems like the perfect opportunity to measure City’s progress. In basic terms Leicester are five points better off than they were at this stage last season. The deeper you look, the more impressive the numbers become. 1. Home Bankers Pre-season: “Leicester’s record against sides in the bottom half last season simply wasn’t good enough. At home they won just 14 points from 12 matches against sides who the promotion hot shots had no trouble dispatching. We’ll have a early indication of how this Leicester side is able to impose itself on the division’s weaker teams when Peterborough visit this Saturday.†It’s three for three so far. Peterborough and Bristol City were both dispatched with comfortable 2-0 wins. Though City made hard work of things in the first half against Burnley, crucially they recovered to take all three points in that game too. City have usually done well against the top sides (they won eight of 11 home games against other top half sides last season) and wins against Blackpool and Hull this year hopefully demonstrate this trend is continuing. In short, nobody is looking forward to a trip to the KP. 2. Points Lost Pre-season: “Last season City thew away 20 points from winning positions. Four times they led only to finish with nothing, and four times they had to settle for a draw. At the peak of his powers (2009/10) Nigel Pearson had City win 14 matches in the Championship by a single goal. It was more than any other side in the division and made all the difference when it came to reaching the top six. Same again please.†Leicester have yet to drop a point from a winning position, and better still have recovered to win two matches in which they fell behind (Burnley & Middlesbrough). Those wins have been decisive more often than not. Three of Leicester’s wins have been by a single goal, four of them by two. 3. Discipline Pre-season: “It’s difficult enough to win matches in the Championship with 11 players on the pitch so Leicester’s nine red cards last season (a club record) did them no favours at all. A few could be disputed, but the vast majority could not. Leicester will need to clean up their act this season.†By this time last season Leicester had already collected 22 yellow and two red cards. So far this season the Foxes have been shown just 10 yellow cards, a dramatic improvement. They’re also one of only two Championship sides yet to concede a penalty. 4. Consistency Pre-season: “It took until March for the Foxes to string together successive wins in the Championship last season. No sooner was a win gained, than the next three points thrown away. Nine Championship sides had unbeaten runs in the double digits last season, Leicester’s best run stretched to just seven games. Promotion campaigns are about momentum and Leicester will go nowhere if they surrender it as often as they did last year.†The Foxes have won five on the bounce, another two wins would equal the club record for consecutive league victories (7 – last matched in 1993). To give an idea of the size of this achievement – in the whole of last season only two Championship clubs produced a five match winning sequence. Millwall won five in a row at the end of last season whilst Reading completed eight wins on the spin by beating Leicester last March. 5. Selection Pre-season: “With eight players realistically challenging for a place in the midfield four on the opening day, finding City’s best lineup may take time. Consistency of selection is hardly helped by a lack of cover at centre back, or an embarrassment of riches up front. If most fans can agree on starting XI come September, City will be on the right track. If we still don’t know by October the Foxes could find themselves having to play catch up.†Nigel Pearson has named just 15 different players in his 10 Championship starting lineups this season. Most City fans could probably agree on 10 of the starting 11 for the trip to St Andrews next weekend. That kind of consistency is priceless.
Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 A great read, and no clutching at straws. Consistency is something that's been a problem of ours for years, and I think Pearson has nailed it. His focussed approach is winning us games - and deservedly so. 10 matches in, 2nd in the league, not a bad team performance yet - bring on the Brummies! Let's keep building this momentum
Grey Fox Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 More interesting stuff from foxblogger - http://foxblogger.wo...e-right-notes/? Ten games in and Leicester City are striking all the right notes Posted on 15/10/2012 At the start of the season this blog named five benchmarks that would give fans an idea how much improvement had taken place at Leicester City over the summer. With 10 games gone, and an international break allowing for some reflection, now seems like the perfect opportunity to measure City’s progress. In basic terms Leicester are five points better off than they were at this stage last season. The deeper you look, the more impressive the numbers become. 1. Home Bankers Pre-season: “Leicester’s record against sides in the bottom half last season simply wasn’t good enough. At home they won just 14 points from 12 matches against sides who the promotion hot shots had no trouble dispatching. We’ll have a early indication of how this Leicester side is able to impose itself on the division’s weaker teams when Peterborough visit this Saturday.†It’s three for three so far. Peterborough and Bristol City were both dispatched with comfortable 2-0 wins. Though City made hard work of things in the first half against Burnley, crucially they recovered to take all three points in that game too. City have usually done well against the top sides (they won eight of 11 home games against other top half sides last season) and wins against Blackpool and Hull this year hopefully demonstrate this trend is continuing. In short, nobody is looking forward to a trip to the KP. 2. Points Lost Pre-season: “Last season City thew away 20 points from winning positions. Four times they led only to finish with nothing, and four times they had to settle for a draw. At the peak of his powers (2009/10) Nigel Pearson had City win 14 matches in the Championship by a single goal. It was more than any other side in the division and made all the difference when it came to reaching the top six. Same again please.†Leicester have yet to drop a point from a winning position, and better still have recovered to win two matches in which they fell behind (Burnley & Middlesbrough). Those wins have been decisive more often than not. Three of Leicester’s wins have been by a single goal, four of them by two. 3. Discipline Pre-season: “It’s difficult enough to win matches in the Championship with 11 players on the pitch so Leicester’s nine red cards last season (a club record) did them no favours at all. A few could be disputed, but the vast majority could not. Leicester will need to clean up their act this season.†By this time last season Leicester had already collected 22 yellow and two red cards. So far this season the Foxes have been shown just 10 yellow cards, a dramatic improvement. They’re also one of only two Championship sides yet to concede a penalty. 4. Consistency Pre-season: “It took until March for the Foxes to string together successive wins in the Championship last season. No sooner was a win gained, than the next three points thrown away. Nine Championship sides had unbeaten runs in the double digits last season, Leicester’s best run stretched to just seven games. Promotion campaigns are about momentum and Leicester will go nowhere if they surrender it as often as they did last year.†The Foxes have won five on the bounce, another two wins would equal the club record for consecutive league victories (7 – last matched in 1993). To give an idea of the size of this achievement – in the whole of last season only two Championship clubs produced a five match winning sequence. Millwall won five in a row at the end of last season whilst Reading completed eight wins on the spin by beating Leicester last March. 5. Selection Pre-season: “With eight players realistically challenging for a place in the midfield four on the opening day, finding City’s best lineup may take time. Consistency of selection is hardly helped by a lack of cover at centre back, or an embarrassment of riches up front. If most fans can agree on starting XI come September, City will be on the right track. If we still don’t know by October the Foxes could find themselves having to play catch up.†Nigel Pearson has named just 15 different players in his 10 Championship starting lineups this season. Most City fans could probably agree on 10 of the starting 11 for the trip to St Andrews next weekend. That kind of consistency is priceless. This is correct, only two teams did it. But Reading did it twice, they had runs of 8 and 6 wins in a row. They also did a 4 in a row on top of those as well. So we still have it all to do to get close to that consistency. So far so good though. I can't believe that only 7 wins in a row is our all time club record. That is pretty poor for a club of our size that has been around since 1884. All we have been able to manage in all those years is 7 wins in a row. Really hope we can win the next three and beat that! Also 4 away wins in a row is our all time record as well, a win against Birmingham would set up a chance to level that too.
davieG Posted 15 October 2012 Author Posted 15 October 2012 This is correct, only two teams did it. But Reading did it twice, they had runs of 8 and 6 wins in a row. They also did a 4 in a row on top of those as well. So we still have it all to do to get close to that consistency. So far so good though. I can't believe that only 7 wins in a row is our all time club record. That is pretty poor for a club of our size that has been around since 1884. All we have been able to manage in all those years is 7 wins in a row. Really hope we can win the next three and beat that! Also 4 away wins in a row is our all time record as well, a win against Birmingham would set up a chance to level that too. Our record is 10 in 62/63, he's just saying what's needed to match the 7 run sequence I think. http://www.foxestalk.../winningrun.php We went 16 games unbeaten with 3 draws in there which i was fortunate enough to witness, closes we've been to doing the double..
Corky Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 The discipline stats are very good. An average of one yellow card per game is impressive. The amount of red cards last season helped to hold us back.
Grey Fox Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 Our record is 10 in 62/63, he's just saying what's needed to match the 7 run sequence I think. http://www.foxestalk.../winningrun.php We went 16 games unbeaten with 3 draws in there which i was fortunate enough to witness, closes we've been to doing the double.. I was talking about league games only. I think there is 3 cup games during that sequence of 10? I got my stat from here: http://www.statto.com/football/teams/leicester-city/records It might be wrong, but it says the record for league games is 7, which we have done 4 times in our history, last in 93 as foxblogger said.
Grey Fox Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 The discipline stats are very good. An average of one yellow card per game is impressive. The amount of red cards last season helped to hold us back. I agree, very impressive. Not to mention the amount of penalties we gave away. The fact we have no reds or no penalties against yet has got to have helped us in our rise to 2nd so far.
davieG Posted 15 October 2012 Author Posted 15 October 2012 I was talking about league games only. I think there is 3 cup games during that sequence of 10? I got my stat from here: http://www.statto.co...er-city/records It might be wrong, but it says the record for league games is 7, which we have done 4 times in our history, last in 93 as foxblogger said. You're right I stand corrected, I missed the 'League games' part of the record stating.
Grey Fox Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 You're right I stand corrected, I missed the 'League games' part of the record stating. I don't want to temp fate, but we could be in for a record breaking next couple of weeks then.
5waller5 Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 This is correct, only two teams did it. But Reading did it twice, they had runs of 8 and 6 wins in a row. They also did a 4 in a row on top of those as well. So we still have it all to do to get close to that consistency. So far so good though. I can't believe that only 7 wins in a row is our all time club record. That is pretty poor for a club of our size that has been around since 1884. All we have been able to manage in all those years is 7 wins in a row. Really hope we can win the next three and beat that! Also 4 away wins in a row is our all time record as well, a win against Birmingham would set up a chance to level that too. THIS!!!!!!! I'm staggered that we haven't had a better run than that - it must be statistically pretty unlikely too at 33% chance of a win!
Alexikokopops Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 THIS!!!!!!! I'm staggered that we haven't had a better run than that - it must be statistically pretty unlikely too at 33% chance of a win! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhSJtMoHJFg It's statistically pretty unlikely that you're misunderstanding probability. You've made the assumption that each result has an equal probability of happening and is independent of anything like form, quality of the team, whether the game is at home or away, how many bodies Knockaert feels like taking that day, or even all our goalkeepers getting injured and us signing Chris Weale on an emergency loan. If there was an equal chance of each result in a football game (meaning 33% chance for a win) then we would have a betting market where they give the same odds for each result? I'm yet to see anything similar to this: Birmingham vs. Leicester Home win - 2/1 Draw - 2/1 Away win - 2/1
Happy Fox Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 http://blogs.examiner.co.uk/oneupfrontathuddersfieldtown/2012/10/ruminations-on-form-22.html Moving on, then, from each team's running form that I looked at yesterday, we can draw more conclusions using that information but in terms of the opposition faced. Taking this at its very basic level, here's a graph detailing the average position of the form table of team's opposition - effectively, the higher your opposition has been in that table, the harder your run has been - in an ideal world, you'd expect all teams to be around 12 for this (bang on halfway) but that's not how the world works of course. The table is taken before the game is played so, with Town currently standing fifth, and Wolves fourth, both teams on Saturday will receive a boost in this aspect. First games aren't included, of course. Obviously, the Huddersfield bar isn't the highest there (pity poor Ipswich - of which more later) but it does indicate that it hasn't been an easy run - 9th most difficult so far (and that is without the first game included; Cardiff have been pretty consistently up in the form table throughout, so it would be even higher with that game on the graph). There's two teams I want to draw attention to that don't play in blue and white stripes. Firstly, Crystal Palace. Now, Palace have been on a great run of form lately, winning six of their last seven - against teams with an average form table position of 7.4; that's really, really impressive stuff. I can accept it's a purple patch, and obviously the luck of the fixture list, but Palace, since the end of August, have been coming up against teams playing at their best and - except against Forest (seventh at the time) - have beaten them. Secondly, Peterborough. Their opposition has been poor so far this season - worrying indeed given their start. The teams that have beaten Peterborough have been positioned at an average 17.3 in the form table - so playing poorly themselves up to the games with Posh. That said, there's been a bit of a revival over the last few games, but it was understandably desperate situation - almost the exact opposite of that at Ipswich, who can explain part of their poor start away (part, at least) by the difficulty of their opposition, which is by a decent amount (0.6 of a position) the most difficult run so far. The second graph I've got is a form points won or lost for each team. This is the amount of points each team has acquired by beating teams matched against their ranking in the form table; if you'd beaten a team who were 24th, and that was it, you'd be 1 point down*. At this stage of the season it's a little extreme, but its be helpful in seeing if teams are bullying weaker teams or really taking it to the big boys. It seems that Leicester and Palace have been doing the latter, while Burnley and Wolves (particularly Wolves here) have been rolling over some easier teams. Of course, you can only beat what's put in front of you, but four of Wolves' victories have come against teams in the bottom four of the form table. That's what you're meant to do of course, but it means that the league table gives them a slightly favourable colouring for beating teams that, on form, they should be expected to beat. Here, then, I present to you a league table ranked on 'Form Points', with teams positions adjusted accordingly (you can see how the positions differ from the actual table within the column with arrows on the right) and the columns you might not recognise stand for Form Points and Difference (between form points and actual points). I think Town moving up three places is probably a little extreme, but that's what the numbers say (positive victim of sample size is how I'd phrase it). We are now ten games into the season. The comparison between this table, and the same after 20 games, will be revealing, particularly for those teams at one end of the spectrum or the other - Palace and Ipswich). *Its balanced so that wins are worth between 2 and 4 points (going up an equal step with each position of opposition) and draws between 0.5 and 1.5 points. After a lot of tampering last season, it leaves the fairest outcome, and the points tally ends up only 0.42 higher than the actual tally over all 24 teams.
5waller5 Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhSJtMoHJFg It's statistically pretty unlikely that you're misunderstanding probability. You've made the assumption that each result has an equal probability of happening and is independent of anything like form, quality of the team, whether the game is at home or away, how many bodies Knockaert feels like taking that day, or even all our goalkeepers getting injured and us signing Chris Weale on an emergency loan. If there was an equal chance of each result in a football game (meaning 33% chance for a win) then we would have a betting market where they give the same odds for each result? I'm yet to see anything similar to this: Birmingham vs. Leicester Home win - 2/1 Draw - 2/1 Away win - 2/1 One thing is for certain - I don't understand that sentence!!! Over 130 years i would think that the average likelihood of win / draw/ loss is around a 1/3 for each ... and I was using rather broad brush strokes with stats as over such a long term I think that most factors will be so insignificant. Taking your example of Knocky's affect - over the entire course of LCFC history his contribution to date statistically is pretty much irrelevant. But when I posted a thought I forgot that this was FoxesTalk and that someone would be this pedantic and plain wrong.
Alexikokopops Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 One thing is for certain - I don't understand that sentence!!! Over 130 years i would think that the average likelihood of win / draw/ loss is around a 1/3 for each ... and I was using rather broad brush strokes with stats as over such a long term I think that most factors will be so insignificant. Taking your example of Knocky's affect - over the entire course of LCFC history his contribution to date statistically is pretty much irrelevant. But when I posted a thought I forgot that this was FoxesTalk and that someone would be this pedantic and plain wrong. I did a stats degree, I have to be pedantic about something
Babylon Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 I did a stats degree, I have to be pedantic about something You saved me writing it out, so thanks!
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.