The Good News thread, local jobs, economy etc

[MooseBreath]

If those indicators are heading in the same direction in 2-3 years time, I'll gladly come and eat humble pie...

I think I'll hold you to that. This government has shown it is willing to put in the hard yards to correct the disastrous debt fueled 'boom' and abysmal cataclysmic bust of the labour years. I don't doubt that another global slowdown is on the horizon (it always is) but I'd expect the next three years will see us reaping the rewards of responsible economic governance.

Today we've had the high profile news that Starbucks sees britain as the best place in europe to base its operations. I've no doubt that the business community at large realises that this country under this government is the place to be. You only need to browse for jobs or look at the unemployment rate dropping like a stone or see that wages are outpacing inflation to see how attractive britain has become and how it is rapidly benefitting the people who work here. Things will only get better and better for ordinary hard working brits over the next three years.

Edited 16 April 2014 by MooseBreath

[Alf Bentley]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27010326

Wages to rise faster than inflation

 

....says a forecaster, though pay rises are now matching CPI at about 1.7%. They are still trailing well behind RPI, though, the other measure of inflation that includes housing costs such as mortgages, rents, council tax etc.....fairly significant costs for most people. 

 

So, after real incomes fell continuously, by a total of 9%, over six years....the decline may have levelled off, for now at least, provided that we ignore costs like housing. Forgive me if I wait a bit before cracking open the champagne!

 

The forecast that Moose quotes was done by Item Club, a unit connected to EY, formerly known as Ernst & Young:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_%26_Young#Criticisms

- EY were sued for doing a questionable job as auditors for Lehman Bros, who went bust almost destroying global capitalism

- EY were also criticised, as auditors of Anglo Irish Bank, for failing to notice dodgy practices necessitating the nationalisation of the bank at massive cost to the Irish (& British) economy

- Less than a year ago, this forecaster was predicting that we faced years of high inflation, which would remain above 2% "for the foreseeable future" (it's now down to 1.7%, if you use CPI): http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/britain-faces-years-of-high-inflation-8623062.html

 

Not the sort of forecasting organisation that I'd place much trust in (though most economic forecasts are way out)

 

Here's EY Item Club's report:

http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Issues/Business-environment/Financial-markets-and-economy/ITEM---Forecast-headlines-and-projections

Their figures seem massively optimistic, I must say:

- A 5%+ increase in exports for each of the next 4 years? What will be selling and to whom?

- Investment increasing by 7.3% to 9% per annum over the same period? Cumulatively, that would be massive over 4 years

- CPI inflation remaining around or below 2% for that period, despite obvious risks such as hikes in fuel prices & gas/electricity prices (think Russian gas, not just oil prices), food price rises (think climate change: e.g. half the country's farmland flooded, half of the USA covered in snow, half of Australia ablaze just weeks ago...)

 

I hope that I'm proved wrong as it would mean good times for many (potentially for all, with a bit of redistribution  ).

 

Personally, I'd expect an upturn lasting, maybe 1-2 years, providing adverse events don't intervene. Will employers really give their employees above-inflation pay rises or will they keep the proceeds of growth as profits/shareholder dividends/bonuses for top execs? Will inflation really stay low on major expenses like housing costs, fuel bills and food? Plenty of reasons to be dubious about that...especially with interest rates likely to be hiked in 2015.

 

Of course, if the economy performs at the upper end of expectations over the next 12 months, it could be enough to get the Tories re-elected at the General Election.....but they might end up wishing they'd lost!

[MooseBreath]

All well and good alf, that was just a forecast. But it has been backed up today by ONS figures showing a real wage increase has already happened.

[Alf Bentley]

16 quarters from 2008, that takes us to 2012 if my maths is correct, have you anything a bit more recent?

 

That graph looks to have about 19 quarters, so well into 2013 (with the upturn already underway, as shown). I've no time to look for another graph now, but obviously the red line will have risen...perhaps you could find one?

p.s. Has Matt invited you to the Parcel Yard (Sat, from 2.30-3.00)....you could bring some graphs!   

 

I think I'll hold you to that. 

Things will only get better and better for ordinary hard working brits over the next three years.

 

I'll be glad to come back in 2-3 years to debate with you, Moose, with egg on my face if you're right (and on yours if I'm not), though I'm sure we'll meet again before then!

 

As for "things will only get better"....that sounds a bit familiar to me....

Take your pick (clue: you might prefer the second one!):

[Alf Bentley]

All well and good alf, that was just a forecast. But it has been backed up today by ONS figures showing a real wage increase has already happened.

 

CPI inflation (the lower inflation measurement that excludes housing costs) and pay rises both 1.7% in Feb, but CPI down to 1.6% in March, according to the FT: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/838deb7e-c543-11e3-89a9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2z3buCvEO

 

I don't want to be a quibbler, though. It looks as if the next few months will see a clawing back of a small portion of the 9% loss in living standards over the past 6 years.....it's still a hell of a long climb back to 2008 levels, though, with plenty of pitfalls - and it's mainly the fall in inflation that has created the current improvement in real pay....if food, petrol, housing or energy prices bump up again, will employers really start handing out pay rises of 3-4% or more so that living standards keep improving?

 

I hope you're right and good times are around the corner....I could do with some good times!

[Dr The Singh]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27010326

Wages to rise faster than inflation

Bullshit!!

[purpleronnie]

Bullshit!!

It's true, if you recieve nice bonuses as part of your wages that is, most don't.

[Dr The Singh]

It's true, if you recieve nice bonuses as part of your wages that is, most don't.

Bullshit is the only bonus I recieve these days!!

[MooseBreath]

It's true, if you recieve nice bonuses as part of your wages that is, most don't.

You don't need to be told how averages work, surely.

[Rincewind]

I know how averages work.

 

Moose earns 80k

Joe Bloggs earns 20 k

Average wage 50k

 

Joe Bloggs pays 90p for a pint of milk

Moose doesn't know the price for a pint of milk as his servant buys it.

 

[ADK]

If you pay 90p for a pint of milk you're getting ripped off.

[MooseBreath]

I know how averages work.

Moose earns 80k

Joe Bloggs earns 20 k

Average wage 50k

Joe Bloggs pays 90p for a pint of milk

Moose doesn't know the price for a pint of milk as his servant buys it.

Super!

[Jon the Hat]

All is well in Surbiton so no worries.

 

Im in Surbiton later on, I will let you know.

[Jon the Hat]

I know how averages work.

 

Moose earns 80k

Joe Bloggs earns 20 k

Average wage 50k

 

Joe Bloggs pays 90p for a pint of milk

Moose doesn't know the price for a pint of milk as his servant buys it.

 

 

And you said you didn't have any skills!  You couold clearly be a manservant.  You might have to cut down on the moaning though.

 

If you think you can afford a servant on £80k a year you have lost touch with reality.

[Guest MattP]

And you said you didn't have any skills! You couold clearly be a manservant. You might have to cut down on the moaning though.

If you think you can afford a servant on £80k a year you have lost touch with reality.

Surely the fact Ken thinks a pint of milk costs 90p shows how out of touch with reality he is.

Funny thing is he would have slaughtered a Tory MP had he read that he didn't know how much a pint of milk cost.

[Strokes]

How much is a pint?

[Guest MattP]

How much is a pint?

Bout 49p.

Nearly a quid though apparently near Moosebreaths local

[ADK]

A 4 pint from a supermarket costs £1, so 25p if you buy in that quantity.

 

It might be quite a bit more in smaller quantities from a local convenience store but 90p seems a bit excessive.

[Strokes]

Bout 49p.

Nearly a quid though apparently near Moosebreaths local

I haven't bought a single pint for as long as I can remember, its £2.50 for 8 pints in our newsagents though.

[Rincewind]

Surely the fact Ken thinks a pint of milk costs 90p shows how out of touch with reality he is.

Funny thing is he would have slaughtered a Tory MP had he read that he didn't know how much a pint of milk cost.

I meant a litre. A pint is around 49p and I was jesting. Boris Johnson didn't know when he was asked on a radio show. it is not just Tory MP's. I wonder how many 'career' politicians know food prices in the High Street?

public school to Uni to Parliament.

Reminds me I need more milk today. Sainsbury's or Tesco it is around 89p for a two pint bottle not a pint..

Edited 17 April 2014 by Rincewind

[MooseBreath]

I just love the way jenny's milk thing was supposed to be an example of how averages work, but in the space of a few lines he completely lost track and started talking about servants, brilliant

[FoxesAreBlue]

I do all my own shopping and I don't know how much stuff costs - I just bang it in and pay for it.

[Guest MattP]

I meant a litre. A pint is around 49p and I was jesting.

Of course you did.

The age old famous question to the out of touch politician - "How much does a litre of Milk cost?"

[Rincewind]

I just love the way jenny's milk thing was supposed to be an example of how averages work, but in the space of a few lines he completely lost track and started talking about servants, brilliant

It was deliberate. MSOH.

[Guest MattP]

Boris Blood Boris Blood how much is a pint of milk?

Boris Blood Boris Blood his house is made of silk.

Killed 2 million jews,

Read it in free speech news

Duncan Smith, Duncan Smithhhh