2015 Election season ..........stuff it in here.

[Rincewind]

A few titbits for the 'hard working family man' who own their own house and a a couple of incentives for party donors to keep them sweet. And as Alf said they won't get the votes of the less well off and 'shirkers' anyway so taking a little bit more off them won't matter as noone wants to hear bad news.

[Guest MattP]

It's been nasty on all sides ever since spin and people like Alastair Campbell took hold of how political parties run the election campaigns.

The media are already starting it that way when you look at the treatment in particular of Farage and Miliband.

You should be looking forward to the budget Ken - expecting it to be another one that appeals to pensioners.

[Rincewind]

I'll accept if it favours me but I won't be fooled that it is a genuine gesture of doing what is right rather than catch a few more votes. Most people don't see further than their back garden and in some aspects I am the same. But I have also seen things from different vantage points but I am growing weary of fighting the underdogs cause and should fight my own for a change. Might be less painful as I only want a quiet life in my wilderness years.

[Guest MattP]

Blimey Ken you're only early 60's aren't you? Average death age is about 85 now.

You could have ages left - you've got to a least stick around for the Boris led Tory majority in 2020.

[MooseBreath]

I'll accept if it favours me but I won't be fooled that it is a genuine gesture of doing what is right rather than catch a few more votes. Most people don't see further than their back garden and in some aspects I am the same. But I have also seen things from different vantage points but I am growing weary of fighting the underdogs cause and should fight my own for a change. Might be less painful as I only want a quiet life in my wilderness years.

I like that attitude ken. You fight your own cause for a change, maybe you can even become self sufficient and we can all keep a bit more of our wages.

[Benji]

I like that attitude ken. You fight your own cause for a change, maybe you can even become self sufficient and we can all keep a bit more of our wages.

You can be such a cock.

[Guest Bilo]

Miliband has finally ruled out a coalition with the SNP - smart move on his part I think.

 

Absolutely it is. The SNP have zero interest for the overwhelming majority of voters in the UK for obvious reasons, and entering into a coalition would be irresponsible at best.

[Guest MattP]

Lamby is demanding fixed term employment contracts.

[SMX11]

Absolutely it is. The SNP have zero interest for the overwhelming majority of voters in the UK for obvious reasons, and entering into a coalition would be irresponsible at best.

Didn't rule out confidence and supply arrangement. If the Tories can't get a majority out of its usual allies then it could be an option for Milliband if the numbers are close.

[Guest MattP]

I think any government will struggle to run on being a confidence and supply one rather than a coalition - purely because the sacrifices needed to do so wouldn't be in the former.

Budget today - most of it seems to have been leaked anyway.

[leicsmac]

I think any government will struggle to run on being a confidence and supply one rather than a coalition - purely because the sacrifices needed to do so wouldn't be in the former.

Budget today - most of it seems to have been leaked anyway.

 

I honestly can't see anything other than utter deadlock post-election now.

 

Is there any way that you can see where one of the bigger parties actually gets a foothold without a second election being needed? Perhaps Labour getting into bed with the SNP (grim thought that is) but can't see many other viable coalition possibilities.

[Guest MattP]

I honestly can't see anything other than utter deadlock post-election now.

Is there any way that you can see where one of the bigger parties actually gets a foothold without a second election being needed? Perhaps Labour getting into bed with the SNP (grim thought that is) but can't see many other viable coalition possibilities.

I can't - even more so now he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

We could have a situation where both the main parties need the Lib Dems and the SNP. Something that won't happen.

It could be an absolute shambles come May 8th.

[Guest MattP]

Although Ed is ruling out forming a government full stop

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/miliband-rules-out-forming-a-government-2015031796342

[leicsmac]

I can't - even more so now he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

We could have a situation where both the main parties need the Lib Dems and the SNP. Something that won't happen.

It could be an absolute shambles come May 8th.

 

I think that's pretty much right. I'm actually due back in the UK on the 7th so it should make for interesting jetlagged viewing when my body clock won't let me sleep for the first night.

 

I've said all along that there could be two totally inconclusive elections this year. Hopefully it might well raise the question of electoral reform in peoples minds if the deadlock lasts long enough.

 

Although Ed is ruling out forming a government full stop

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/miliband-rules-out-forming-a-government-2015031796342

 

 

Daily Mash comes up with some absolute blinders.

[Guest MattP]

I think that's pretty much right. I'm actually due back in the UK on the 7th so it should make for interesting jetlagged viewing when my body clock won't let me sleep for the first night.

I've said all along that there could be two totally inconclusive elections this year. Hopefully it might well raise the question of electoral reform in peoples minds if the deadlock lasts long enough.

Daily Mash comes up with some absolute blinders.

Problem is I think people will still oppose electoral reform as they'll see this chaos and know that's what they'll get with PR. Only UKIP and the Greens seem to campaign for it now anyway as the Lib Dems don't seem interested now their vote has collapsed and with it probably resulting in a TORY - UKIP coalition at the minute most lefties won't entertain it.

That picture of Miliband makes me laugh every time the Mash use it, I'd love to know what startled him.

[Guest Bilo]

I honestly can't see anything other than utter deadlock post-election now.

 

Is there any way that you can see where one of the bigger parties actually gets a foothold without a second election being needed? Perhaps Labour getting into bed with the SNP (grim thought that is) but can't see many other viable coalition possibilities.

 

That's been ruled out by Labour already, apart from the C&S route, and I daresay the aims of the SNP are too different anyway. Remember, the SNP don't have to answer to a single English or Welsh voter and the fallout from the disastrous independence campaign must still smart. 

 

The collapse of the Lib Dem vote is the game changer here and it's a shame that Labour don't seem to have picked up on much of the disaffected centre-left vote. In order to make a Lab-Lib coaition work, Labour will need at least 300 seats and that will require a significant change in the polls. 

 

As for the Tories, god only knows. Two way, three way, four way or political gangbang, I just don't see any way that they could govern with a majority based purely on the maths.

 

One election forecast shows this:

 

Tories - 285

Labour - 280

SNP - 37

Lib Dems - 25

DUP - 8

SDLP - 3

Plaid Cymru - 2

UKIP - 1

Greens - 1

Others - 8

 

That puts the current coalition on 310 MPs, 16 short of an overall majority. If we agree that the prediction for UKIP looks pessimistic, I personally think they'll get five or six MPs and the idea that only Reckless will retain is fanciful, that still leaves them needing a further 10-11 seats alone to prop up the current coalition. The only way I could even see it working politically at all is if UKIP have a decent night (i.e. 7-8 seats) and the DUP prop up the coalition. This would be hugely unpopular as a move for the same reasons why Labour would have been ill-advised to get into bed with the SNP.

 

As for Labour, goodness only knows. A straight coalition of C&S deal with the SNP would leave Labour needing to find less seats than the current coalition but leave them scratching their head regarding the remaining nine seats, difficult seeing as the Lib Dems have become toxic. 

 

What could change ahead of a possible second election this year? One or more new leaders would be a game changer for certain. Electoral wipeout would surely spell the end of Clegg as the Lib Dems start to panic, and then both the Tories and Labour would keep their fingers crossed that the Lib Dems result improved enough to form a coalition. Miliband has much good to say but the polls suggest that the public are not biting; would they engage with, for example, Umunna or Burnham? It would take a pretty catastrophic night to dislodge Cameron as Tory leader, but how would the public engage with Boris Johnson or George Osborne getting a promotion? 

 

2015 certainly promises to be a fascinating year.

[leicsmac]

Problem is I think people will still oppose electoral reform as they'll see this chaos and know that's what they'll get with PR. Only UKIP and the Greens seem to campaign for it now anyway as the Lib Dems don't seem interested now their vote has collapsed and with it probably resulting in a TORY - UKIP coalition at the minute most lefties won't entertain it.

That picture of Miliband makes me laugh every time the Mash use it, I'd love to know what startled him.

 

The way I see it if there's going to be no overall majorities for the foreseeable future then you may as well make coalitions easier to form in the first place, which is what a reform would do. I think both major parties are going to keep finding it difficult to get overall majorities in the future, and more snafus like this can be expected.

 

I'd much rather have a system whereby I have better representation at a local level and then a government is formed and actually starts to get things done even via compromise, even if nationally the result right now wouldn't be what I wanted.

 

 

That's been ruled out by Labour already, apart from the C&S route, and I daresay the aims of the SNP are too different anyway. Remember, the SNP don't have to answer to a single English or Welsh voter and the fallout from the disastrous independence campaign must still smart. 

 

The collapse of the Lib Dem vote is the game changer here and it's a shame that Labour don't seem to have picked up on much of the disaffected centre-left vote. In order to make a Lab-Lib coaition vote, Labour will need at least 300 seats and that will require a significant change in the polls. 

 

As for the Tories, god only knows. Two way, three way, four way or political gangbang, I just don't see any way that they could govern with a majority based purely on the maths.

 

One election forecast shows this:

 

Tories - 285

Labour - 280

SNP - 37

Lib Dems - 25

DUP - 8

SDLP - 3

Plaid Cymru - 2

UKIP - 1

Greens - 1

Others - 8

 

That puts the current coalition on 310 MPs, 16 short of an overall majority. If we agree that the prediction for UKIP looks pessimistic, I personally think they'll get five or six MPs and the idea that only Reckless will retain is fanciful, that still leaves them needing a further 10-11 seats alone to prop up the current coalition. The only way I could even see it working politically at all is if UKIP have a decent night (i.e. 7-8 seats) and the DUP prop up the coalition. This would be hugely unpopular as a move for the same reasons why Labour would have been ill-advised to get into bed with the SNP.

 

As for Labour, goodness only knows. A straight coalition of C&S deal with the SNP would leave Labour needing to find less seats than the current coalition but leave them scratching their head regarding the remaining nine seats, difficult seeing as the Lib Dems have become toxic. 

 

What could change ahead of a possible second election this year? One or more new leaders would be a game changer for certain. Electoral wipeout would surely spell the end of Clegg as the Lib Dems start to panic, and then both the Tories and Labour would keep their fingers crossed that the Lib Dems result improved enough to form a coalition. Miliband has much good to say but the polls suggest that the public are not biting; would they engage with, for example, Umunna or Burnham? It would take a pretty catastrophic night to dislodge Cameron as Tory leader, but how would the public engage with Boris Johnson or George Osborne getting a promotion? 

 

2015 certainly promises to be a fascinating year.

 

Good analysis there. I think depending on the results in May we may see one or more new major party leaders, but exactly how things get reshuffled is anyones guess. As is whether or not - regardless of changes - a second election would be more conclusive than the first one.

[Guest MattP]

A Labour - Liberal coalition just can't happen in my eyes.

The Dems are campaigning on the economic success of the last couple of years and telling us not to allow it to be destroyed by voting Labour - no way could they do that then prop up Balls and Miliband in a government.

The only possible coalitions or CAS arrangements are Tory-Lib Dem or Labour - SNP

[leicsmac]

A Labour - Liberal coalition just can't happen in my eyes.

The Dems are campaigning on the economic success of the last couple of years and telling us not to allow it to be destroyed by voting Labour - no way could they do that then prop up Balls and Miliband in a government.

The only possible coalitions or CAS arrangements are Tory-Lib Dem or Labour - SNP

 

And as you said, both of those are very unlikely for different reasons.

 

It's going to be interesting.

[Guest Bilo]

A Labour - Liberal coalition just can't happen in my eyes.

The Dems are campaigning on the economic success of the last couple of years and telling us not to allow it to be destroyed by voting Labour - no way could they do that then prop up Balls and Miliband in a government.

The only possible coalitions or CAS arrangements are Tory-Lib Dem or Labour - SNP

 

The trouble is that, on current polling, neither will have enough for a majority.

 

Con-Lib: 310 seats

Lab-SNP: 317 seats

 

Interesting as well to see this from Labour List last year, this may partially account for the decision not to go into coalition with the SNP.

 

http://labourlist.org/2014/03/a-message-for-ruk-the-snp-is-a-centre-right-party/

[SMX11]

Are we having fixed terms from now on? I forgot that past a law about it. How do you call another election if a government cannot be formed?

[Guest Bilo]

Are we having fixed terms from now on? I forgot that past a law about it. How do you call another election if a government cannot be formed?

 

Either a vote of no confidence or if two thirds of Parliament resolve to have an early election.

[Guest MattP]

The trouble is that, on current polling, neither will have enough for a majority.

 

Con-Lib: 310 seats

Lab-SNP: 317 seats

 

Interesting as well to see this from Labour List last year, this may partially account for the decision not to go into coalition with the SNP.

 

http://labourlist.org/2014/03/a-message-for-ruk-the-snp-is-a-centre-right-party/

 

Nope, I don't see a two party majority being able to happen.

 

Interesting read that but I can't say much of the policy I've read from the SNP is anything like centre-right, it certainly wasn't in the parts of the white paper I read and their main support bases these days seem to be in cities like Dundee and Glasgow, certainly not Lib Dem territory.

 

In fact I'd say Labour are still more of a centre-right party than the SNP are.

[cityfanlee23]

Conservative.

 

I'm a strong believer in running the country like a well tuned business, this is Long term.

It's clear labour supporters are using their own parties flaws against the tories.

13 years of mess, Let's give the tories 5 years to fix it. 

 

I'm not a fan of the whole "Lets get out the national credit card to make everyone happy" policy under labour, Things had to get worse before they got better, and under the current government the rate of improvement to the country financially and on many other grounds are incomparable.

 

I'm fully confident a 13 year period under the current government would put us in a hugely stronger position than that under labour, when arguably, labour had a much stronger global market. 

 

Hoping people see sense. Consistency is key here, we need to keep progressing under the current system to be able to flourish and once again start increasing national spending, If we change government now with labour being in power again, we will 100% go backwards as a nation.

 

Saying that, maybe i've been a bit hard on pearson....

[Guest MattP]

Never heard so many kitchen jokes in ten minutes.