2015 Election season ..........stuff it in here.

[Stadt]

"Progressively reduce UK immigration controls. Migrants illegally in the UK for over five years will be allowed to remain unless they pose a serious danger to public safety. More legal rights for asylum seekers."

lol

[Strokes]

What constituency are you in, Strokes?

Loughborough. Its Nicky Morgan, who is lovely to be fair and she only won by a few votes last time but I have to put down what is important to me. I don't agree with tactical voting, so I can't bring myself to do it.

[Foxhateram]

The choice this time is even more horrendous than it was last time and even the time before.

They are all jumped up idiots who don't have a clue.

Labour playing the same old card, we will get your benefits back. (That is what got us in a mess) who seriously is going to vote for Mr Burns?

Tories playing for the Rich country men by legalising fox hunting and badger culls, while also agreeing to reduce land ownership taxes.

UKIP - Basically being as racist as possible which is a shame because some of their ideas are quite interesting. Especially on the non racist variations of how to deal with our countries over population.

There all useless. I give up, our country is a mess and no one knows what to do to be honest.

[Guest Bilo]

Looking at the polls and the likely implosion of the Lib Dem vote, I wouldn't be surprised to see two elections this year.

 

• The Tories will lose seats in key marginals. If they lose 30-40 seats as polling suggests, there is not a chance in hell that the Lib Dems will have the 50-60 seats needed to give the coalition a majority.
• UKIP will not get enough seats to support the Tories. Double figures would take nothing short of a miracle, let alone the number of seats they need. The ideological differences between the three parties (Con-Lib-UKIP) means a three-way coalition is fanciful and there won't be enough MPs to form a majority anyway.
• Labour have a chance to become the biggest party in Parliament if they can take the key marginals. They will not, however, have enough seats by half to form an overall majority. As with the Tories, the likely collapse of the Lib Dem vote means that a Lab-Lib coalition would be too small to govern.
• The SNP are unlikely to be asked to form a coalition by any party due to their utter irrelevance south of the border.

The options therefore all point to either minority government or utterly unworkable coalitions. I predict we'll go to the polls again around the autumn, possibly with one or more new party leaders.

[Strokes]

Looking at the polls and the likely implosion of the Lib Dem vote, I wouldn't be surprised to see two elections this year.

• The Tories will lose seats in key marginals. If they lose 30-40 seats as polling suggests, there is not a chance in hell that the Lib Dems will have the 50-60 seats needed to give the coalition a majority.
• UKIP will not get enough seats to support the Tories. Double figures would take nothing short of a miracle, let alone the number of seats they need. The ideological differences between the three parties (Con-Lib-UKIP) means a three-way coalition is fanciful and there won't be enough MPs to form a majority anyway.
• Labour have a chance to become the biggest party in Parliament if they can take the key marginals. They will not, however, have enough seats by half to form an overall majority. As with the Tories, the likely collapse of the Lib Dem vote means that a Lab-Lib coalition would be too small to govern.
• The SNP are unlikely to be asked to form a coalition by any party due to their utter irrelevance south of the border.

The options therefore all point to either minority government or utterly unworkable coalitions. I predict we'll go to the polls again around the autumn, possibly with one or more new party leaders.

Hopefully, we get rid of Cameron and the tories will get a leader with a bit of integrity, that we can trust to take us out of the EU.

[Guest Bilo]

Hopefully, we get rid of Cameron and the tories will get a leader with a bit of integrity, that we can trust to take us out of the EU.

 

The problem is whether the wider electorate would vote for them. The whole Leaving the EU idea might go down well with some voters, but the other policies such a candidate (likely to come from or be influenced by the Cornerstone Group) would have to be equally right-wing and disengage an awful lot of voters. 

[leicsmac]

Looking at the polls and the likely implosion of the Lib Dem vote, I wouldn't be surprised to see two elections this year.

 

• The Tories will lose seats in key marginals. If they lose 30-40 seats as polling suggests, there is not a chance in hell that the Lib Dems will have the 50-60 seats needed to give the coalition a majority.
• UKIP will not get enough seats to support the Tories. Double figures would take nothing short of a miracle, let alone the number of seats they need. The ideological differences between the three parties (Con-Lib-UKIP) means a three-way coalition is fanciful and there won't be enough MPs to form a majority anyway.
• Labour have a chance to become the biggest party in Parliament if they can take the key marginals. They will not, however, have enough seats by half to form an overall majority. As with the Tories, the likely collapse of the Lib Dem vote means that a Lab-Lib coalition would be too small to govern.
• The SNP are unlikely to be asked to form a coalition by any party due to their utter irrelevance south of the border.

The options therefore all point to either minority government or utterly unworkable coalitions. I predict we'll go to the polls again around the autumn, possibly with one or more new party leaders.

 

This, though I think a second election will be as hung (hur hur hur) as the first.

 

There's going to be some serious political deadlock coming this year. I'm actually looking forward to it, from the point of view that it might lead to electoral reform which is sorely needed.

 

Hopefully, we get rid of Cameron and the tories will get a leader with a bit of integrity, that we can trust to take us out of the EU.

 

As Bilo said - still wouldn't get an overall majority. Leaving the EU simply isn't popular enough as a platform.

[Strokes]

This, though I think a second election will be as hung (hur hur hur) as the first.

There's going to be some serious political deadlock coming this year. I'm actually looking forward to it, from the point of view that it might lead to electoral reform which is sorely needed.

As Bilo said - still wouldn't get an overall majority. Leaving the EU simply isn't popular enough as a platform.

You might be right, but I think there are huge reasons for that. I think a big party backing an exit, with a well thought out detailed exit plan, would sway alot that are currently on the fence. The reason (imo) its not a populist policy, is up until recently its been dismissed as crazy.

Its the most important policy to me and I'm prepared to sell my vote for it, I know I'm not the only one.

[MooseBreath]

Having a referendum this year would just be dumb. No time to renegotiate terms and I think the sudden prospect of an actual EU exit would push a lot of swing voters into voting to stay purely out of resistance to change.

The only sensible approach is to first renegotiate, then have a referendum with a decent lead in time so everyone has got a chance to sort out the facts from the nonsense.

[leicsmac]

Having a referendum this year would just be dumb. No time to renegotiate terms and I think the sudden prospect of an actual EU exit would push a lot of swing voters into voting to stay purely out of resistance to change.

The only sensible approach is to first renegotiate, then have a referendum with a decent lead in time so everyone has got a chance to sort out the facts from the nonsense.

 

This is pretty much spot on, and the only course of action the EU-out group have of getting a result in a referendum.

 

A slap and dash job would result in too many people just picking the status quo.

[Guest MattP]

Having a referendum this year would just be dumb. No time to renegotiate terms and I think the sudden prospect of an actual EU exit would push a lot of swing voters into voting to stay purely out of resistance to change.

The only sensible approach is to first renegotiate, then have a referendum with a decent lead in time so everyone has got a chance to sort out the facts from the nonsense.

I agree.

The next 5 years is going to see serious crisis across the Euro zone and it would be bonkers to want the referendum before Juncker starts to put in plans for his European Army.

[SMX11]

I would like to hear what Mr Cameron would actually want in these negotiations. There is a clear lack of detail from the tories and I suspect they wouldn't want to attempt for a treaty change.

[Finnegan]

Yeah, I'd hope anyone with a brain would agree.

I'm not in favour of leaving the EU but if it does happen I'd hope it wouldn't be voted for without considerable transparency from both sides with a lot of understanding for the consequences for and against.

The scotch campaign was a farce. Salmon answered absolutely no questions and left the yes voters to vote only on passion and emotion, not any actual sense.

[Guest MattP]

I would like to hear what Mr Cameron would actually want in these negotiations. There is a clear lack of detail from the tories and I suspect they wouldn't want to attempt for a treaty change.

The prospect of renegotiation is bollocks, we all know it.

Cameron knows as well he isn't getting a majority so he can promise it without ever having to do it.

[Strokes]

Cameron knows as well he isn't getting a majority so he can promise it without ever having to do it.

Spot on, he is a snake. He hasn't even planned for it as he knows he wont have to deliver it.

[Strokes]

Farage has said today he will step down as leader of UKIP, if he fails to win his seat at the general election. It would be a big loss for them but I wonder who the likely candidates for leadership would be. Surely carswell will hold and would make a decent leader.

[Alf Bentley]

UKIP was previously demanding a 2016 referendum, but now it's 2015, apparently. Do we presume that Farage is doing this to push the EU up the election agenda?

 

In reality, IF (big IF) UKIP is in a position to prop up a Tory minority government and Cameron offers a definite 2017 referendum after negotiations, surely UKIP would agree to that?

If they brought the government down instead, there'd be a massive risk of losing all influence if another election was held and either of the "big" parties increased their vote.

 

I quite like the idea of an EU referendum. It would hopefully allow people to hear - and pay attention to - the arguments a lot more.

So much debate about the EU is ill-informed...and I include myself in that, despite being a politics nerd. My instinct would be to vote to stay in, but I wouldn't rule out voting to leave the EU after considering the issues properly.

[Strokes]

If the EU negotiations went well and it was a seemingly fair deal, and it was written into to law that the electorate would have the chance to review it every decade. I might, just vote in favour of it....but I haven't seen many flying pigs on the gravy train

[Alf Bentley]

UKIP will have nowhere near enough MPs to support a Tory minority government.

 

The next parliament looks like being a right mess. Let's take a look at the polls. At the minute the two main parties are neck and next, a couple of decimals either side of 33 points. UKIP are on 14-5, the Lib Dems 7-8, the Greens on 6 and falling back.

 

The Tories won by 11 points in England last time around. At the moment the polls show anything from a five point Tory lead to Labour being level. Either way that means a significant seat loss for the Tories from Labour, so less seats for them than last time. The Tories and Labour will both gain from the Lib Dems with the Tories doing particularly well in this regard in the South West. Labour's gain in England is likely to be offset somewhat  by huge losses to the SNP in Scotland but they'll gain a couple in Wales. Again, this is all based on current polling and not on any personal preference of mine; I'll be voting Lib Dem, to declare my interest.

 

The Greens will keep Brighton Pavilion. UKIP will keep hold of Clacton and Farage will gain South Thanet. I'll be generous and say Reckless will keep hold of his seat although polling suggests it will be more difficult than he'd like. Let's be nice and give them Skegness as well. 

 

The make up of the Commons, on current polling, is likely to be something like this:

 

Conservatives: 260-270

Labour: 280-290

SNP: 40-50

Lib Dems: 20-30

UKIP: 2-4

Greens: 1

Then a load of others.

 

It's going to be a mess. Only Labour are likely to be able to form a majority government and only then with the SNP which I don't think they'll do on anything more than a confidence and supply basis. The polls haven't shifted significantly for a while. The Tories have seen a small uptick. It looked more than that this time last week but they've fallen back again in recent days and the polls have reverted to the established norm. There just isn't that much fluidity. I expect to see an improvement in Tory fortunes following the budget but I can see this being offset by an improvement in UKIP fortunes as Farage gets more exposure during the campaign. This parliament is going to be very hung.

 

That's a fair interpretation of the current polls, LJS.

 

By election day, though, I'd expect Tory support to creep up a bit (it always bloody does!) - and UKIP to do slightly better than 2-4 seats. As well as the 2 likely wins for Carswell & Farage, the Ashcroft constituency polls have shown UKIP ahead or very close in about a dozen seats (Thurrock, Castle Point, South Basildon, Boston & Skegness, Yarmouth, Grimsby, Dudley North, Camborne & Redruth, St. Austell & Newquay etc.). They won't win all of them, but probably will win some unless they implode during the campaign (entirely possible). 

 

The Ashcroft constituency polls (http://lordashcroftpolls.com/constituency-polls/) have been very interesting. So far, they've backed up the sort of figures that LJS has presented, including Labour taking more Tory English seats than we might expect. A couple of weeks ago, Ashcroft found Labour neck and neck with the Tories in Norwich North, High Peak & Colne Valley, which are 68th, 69th & 77th on their target list. I don't imagine they'll win many seats like that on the day, but about 35 gains from the Tories would make them the biggest party, even with the SNP massacre in Scotland (Con and Lab will probably each take about 10 seats off the Lib Dems).

 

It's certainly likely to be a well-hung mess, though.

Assuming nothing dramatic changes during the campaign, I'd expect something like this:

Con 280, Lab 272, Lib Dems 30, SNP 40, DUP 9, UKIP 6, Sinn Fein 5, Plaid 3, SDLP 3, Others 2

That would mean that no 2 parties would have enough MPs for a majority (323 required, with Sinn Fein opting out), excluding the unlikely Con/Lab scenario. Con+LD+UKIP/DUP or Lab+LD+SNP would be the likeliest options.

 

However, if the Tories or Labour did just slightly better than that, other combinations could come into view: e.g. Lab+SNP or Con+UKIP+DUP or Lab+LD+DUP

 

It seems likely that the Lib Dems will still be key players, even after probably losing half their seats. They could even be looking at coalition negotiations without a leader in parliament, if Clegg loses his Sheffield Hallam seat (predicted by the Ashcroft poll).

 

It could easily take a couple of weeks from 7th May before we know what government we've got. God knows how long that government would last, then. My guess is that it might be longer than people expect, but it would depend on the narrow party interest of the different parties. One or more governing parties would have to think they'd be in a stronger position from collapsing the government - and the same could apply to the opposition parties; they might not want to bring a government down too soon. Parliament could end up like a massive poker match with all the different parties calculating whether to stick or twist.

 

Nerd extravaganza complete!  

[Guest MattP]

Some good reading here - personally I want the Tories to not bother if it's a 3+ party coalition - likelihood is that won't last long and whoever isn't involved in that would perform better in an election after that.

[Guest MattP]

Miliband has finally ruled out a coalition with the SNP - smart move on his part I think.

[Alf Bentley]

Miliband has finally ruled out a coalition with the SNP - smart move on his part I think.

 

No doubt the Tories will draw attention to the fact that he's not ruled out a "confidence & supply" type deal with the SNP....and no doubt Miliband will respond that they've not ruled out such a deal with UKIP.

 

Hopefully, they'll then get on with talking about the real issues, though I wouldn't bank on it.

[Guest MattP]

No doubt the Tories will draw attention to the fact that he's not ruled out a "confidence & supply" type deal with the SNP....and no doubt Miliband will respond that they've not ruled out such a deal with UKIP.

Hopefully, they'll then get on with talking about the real issues, though I wouldn't bank on it.

I wouldn't. Of course we'll carry on down this route, it's an election that will get really nasty.

[MooseBreath]

Looks like it's going to get nasty, messy and ultimately fail at producing a government and all the wasted time that will entail. Hopefully politics learns some lessons from it all.

[Alf Bentley]

I wouldn't. Of course we'll carry on down this route, it's an election that will get really nasty.

 

Bound to happen to some extent. But given how alienated many people are from politicians of all parties, it could be counter-productive if it goes too far.

 

Apparently some senior Tories are already getting a bit jittery about Lynton Crosby's campaign tactics being too nasty and turning people off, wanting a more positive message to shift the polls etc.

 

On the other hand, a lot of mutual mudslinging probably suits the Tories more than Labour. They can just stand on their economic record, asking for more time to finish the job - in the knowledge that those who are critical of their economic/social record won't be voting for them anyway, while those who are unsure might well "hold on to nurse for fear of something worse"....a potential repeat of the 1992 election, in other words.

 

A load of mudslinging doesn't suit Labour so well, though I'm sure they'll engage in some. They need to get the message across as to what a Labour govt would be for, which they haven't done yet. A really dirty campaign might leave a lot of undecided voters thinking "they're all as bad as one another, so let's stick with the devil we know & vote Tory". 

 

 

On another tack, I wonder what Osborne's going to pull out of the budget hat on Wednesday? Probably nothing that involves splashing loads of money around, as that would undermine the "need for continued austerity" argument, but he'll find a few things to appeal to key groups of voters, no doubt....pre-electoral budgets always do.