Webbo Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Out of pure interest, has it ever been tested whether polls are ever worth the paper they're written on? I appreciate by their nature it would be difficult to prove, but presumably polls taken very close to the election could be measured against election results. I see this one has less than 2,000 people polled when nearly 30 million people voted in 2010. I just can't help but think they mean the square root of fk all, but maybe I'm just cynical. The exit polls at the last election were almost exactly right. It's still nearly 2 months until the election, plenty of time for things to change yet.
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Does anyone out there seriously think a hardcore racist boss would employ a non white because they are scared of equality laws? It's just laws for authority to pat themselves on the back with, pretty pointless bureaucracy in reality but it makes people feel better about themselves.
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Out of pure interest, has it ever been tested whether polls are ever worth the paper they're written on? I appreciate by their nature it would be difficult to prove, but presumably polls taken very close to the election could be measured against election results. I see this one has less than 2,000 people polled when nearly 30 million people voted in 2010. I just can't help but think they mean the square root of fk all, but maybe I'm just cynical. Over the last 20 years they have been pretty much spot on with virtually every election.
Benji Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 The exit polls at the last election were almost exactly right. It's still nearly 2 months until the election, plenty of time for things to change yet. Over the last 20 years they have been pretty much spot on with virtually every election. Fair enough! Still don't trust them.
Mark_w Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Does anyone out there seriously think a hardcore racist boss would employ a non white because they are scared of equality laws? It's just laws for authority to pat themselves on the back with, pretty pointless bureaucracy in reality but it makes people feel better about themselves. I don't think they would, but I'd like there to be a legal recourse for people who can prove that they've been treated unfairly specifically because of their race.
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 I don't think they would, but I'd like there to be a legal recourse for people who can prove that they've been treated unfairly specifically because of their race. And as Farage says in his reply actual discrimination laws wouldn't be touched. He wants it to be legal for a company to hire someone over someone else on the basis of being British. Colour of skin wasn't even mentioned. The whole way it was concocted in the first place makes me sick to be honest, we're going to change the country without asking you through mass immigration and if you don't give them jobs we'll lock you up or shut down your business. Deleterious stuff on a democracy.
The God Emperor Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 I don't know why he needs to say all that needless pandering stuff about people being 'colour blind'. Why can't he just say that people have an inherent and natural right to trade and not trade with whoever they want and for whatever reason. The annointed ones atop mount Westminster have no legitimate reason or right to interfere in trade between 2 or more consenting adults. They especially don't have a right to force a party to take part in the trade that they do not consent to, like employing someone they do not want to employ, even if it is for an incredibly trivial reason like they didn't like the tie they wore to the interview. Why couldn't he just have said something like that, but possibly less wordy.
ADK Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 It appears the UKIP vote has swung to the Tories. Whether that is due to the heavy artillery of establishment propaganda or people rallying behind the government for fear of a Labour victory I don't know.
Mark_w Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 And as Farage says in his reply actual discrimination laws wouldn't be touched. He was asked if there would be a law against discrimination on the grounds of race or colour and Farage replied 'No' Matt. Am I missing something? Anyway you've just said those laws should be scraped, you've just said it's pointless bureaucracy because racists still won't employ non-whites haven't you? So are you disagreeing with what you think Farage is saying?
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 In the second paragraph in the posted article it says he was talking about it in reference to nationality and not race. Where have I just said I think those laws should be scrapped? I didn't. I said the way the whole thing was concocted was disgraceful.
Mark_w Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 In the second paragraph in the posted article it says he was talking about it in reference to nationality and not race. The question was clearly about race. They were talking about nationality, then the interviewer asked about race, which is why Farage started talking about being 'colour-blind' watch the video. Where have I just said I think those laws should be scrapped? I didn't. I said the way the whole thing was concocted was disgraceful. Does anyone out there seriously think a hardcore racist boss would employ a non white because they are scared of equality laws? It's just laws for authority to pat themselves on the back with, pretty pointless bureaucracy in reality but it makes people feel better about themselves. I thought that sort of implied that you don't think these laws are worthwhile?
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Not seen the video I'm on a mobile. If I wanted to scrap every pointless law or piece of bureaucracy Britain it would take a lifetime. Personally think some industries or companies need a helping hand still and rather than outright scrapping it should be judged on a case by case basis. It's pointless for 99% of employers though. The whole thing is a bit of a joke to be honest - people again getting riled up just because Farage has said something controversial. (Shock horror) Sadiq Khan has just been on the news saying it's the most shocking thing he's ever heard in politics - I mean whatthe actual ****?
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 It appears the UKIP vote has swung to the Tories. Whether that is due to the heavy artillery of establishment propaganda or people rallying behind the government for fear of a Labour victory I don't know. The Tory vote is pretty steady. It's the Labour vote that is collapsing. It could be below 30% come May. Even Wacky Natalie and her loopy interviews don't seem to be stopping Labour voters drifting to the Greens - which is tricky for them as it proves what a lot of people think about Labour and voters - they don't want to know or care about economics or how anything they promise is going to be paid for.
davieG Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 I'm Ed Milliband An hour long programme on BBC3 at 8 were he faces a 100 people 16 to 34 asking him questions
Strokes Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 I'm Ed Milliband An hour long programme on BBC3 at 8 were he faces a 100 people 16 to 34 asking him questions A carefully selected 100 no doubt.
davieG Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 A carefully selected 100 no doubt. I'm sure you're correct but as there are 4 programmes in the series presumably for the other leaders I'm also sure theirs will be carefully selected.
ADK Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 The Tory vote is pretty steady. It's the Labour vote that is collapsing. It could be below 30% come May. Even Wacky Natalie and her loopy interviews don't seem to be stopping Labour voters drifting to the Greens - which is tricky for them as it proves what a lot of people think about Labour and voters - they don't want to know or care about economics or how anything they promise is going to be paid for. The poll I saw today had the Tories on 34% up 3% from 31% at the expense of UKIP. Labour were on 33% which they have been for some time.
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Green Party candidate in London saying high heels should be banned on the grounds of sexism. Men can actually wear them if they want I'm sure. The poll I saw today had the Tories on 34% up 3% from 31% at the expense of UKIP. Labour were on 33% which they have been for some time. They all seem to be around that - Labour is consistently dropping month by month though whereas other parties are up and down.
Jimothy Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Green Party candidate in London saying high heels should be banned on the grounds of sexism. Men can actually wear them if they want I'm sure. They all seem to be around that - Labour is consistently dropping month by month though whereas other parties are up and down. I know you don't like the BBC, but this is a poll of polls, using data from all the main compilers.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker Which ever poll you select, Labour are hardly dropping month by month, even in one that has the Tories at 36% and Labour 32% (the biggest gap) it's been pretty flat around the mid to low 30's since October. Both parties have to be fair.
ADK Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 I don't see Labour's vote going down and down. https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=107&view=wide#2014 I found that interesting. Labour have certainly seen their average lead fall, but this is consistent with previous elections where the ruling party always seems to claw back some of the vote. The Tories enjoyed some colossal leads in 2009 with an unelected uncharismatic leader in charge and the economy going into recession but failed to win a majority. I would say: Another hung parliament is almost certain. Labour are likely to have a similar number of seats to the Tories. The Lib Dem vote has collapsed, they will have to get rid of Clegg, Cable et al if they are going to continue to exist. UKIP, the Greens and the nationalists are all stronger this time around. I don't know how the vote share will translate into seats, has anything changed regarding boundaries? Last time a Tory win by 7% was not enough for a majority, best case seems to be a similar margin this time (from a Tory perspective) but more likely is a narrower win in terms of vote share.
Webbo Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 I really don't see the Libs collapsing like has been predicted. If you were a Labour supporter in a Con/Lib marginal you're still going to vote Lib to keep the tories out. You wouldn't necessarily say that to a pollster though.
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Seven minutes to go - hoping he'll answer a question soon.
Mark_w Posted 12 March 2015 Posted 12 March 2015 Yeah, aside from avoiding a few questions early on I thought he did pretty well.
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