2015 Election season ..........stuff it in here.

[Tielemans63]

Fair enough - perhaps I was being a bit flippant with my initial remarks but this is why they annoy me https://www.greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/resources/EasyRead_Green_Party_Manifesto_web.pdf

 

Yes it's the easy read version of their manifesto but bloody hell, it's like a 5 year has been asked how they would fix the world.. Not one single word on how any of this will actually be achieved. I personally find that they deal almost entirely in idealism (hence my comments). I guess if pushing their idealism spurs on other parties to offer us a better deal then fair enough - that's a very valid point.

 

PS please don't think I'm knocking minority parties, I'm really not,there is most definitely a role for these parties. I just find it very hard to take the Greens seriously.

[Alf Bentley]

Baffling that.

In majority market it's 16's yet click next government market and Labour MAJ is 33's - something wrong in data.

 

Looking at Oddschecker, it's an oddity that a Labour majority is considerably longer odds than a Tory majority (16-1 or 33-1 v. 5-1)....yet a Labour minority is slightly shorter odds than a Tory minority (3-1 v. 7-2).

 

Makes sense, though. It doesn't look as if there's much chance of anyone getting a majority, but the swing that the Tories require isn't completely beyond the realms of possibility, particularly as they usually get a small swing in their favour during election campaigns.

 

In contrast, there's almost zero chance of a Labour overall majority now, unless the success of the SNP in Scotland suddenly evaporates, which doesn't look likely. In 2010, Labour won 258 seats, so would need 68 net gains to win a majority. That would be a tough ask without the Scottish situation. But, if they lose, say, 30 seats to the SNP, they'd need to win almost 100 off the Tories and Lib Dems to gain a majority.....sod all chance of that. The polls at the moment suggest that they could win about 50 from the Tories and 10 from the Lib Dems, but I'd expect that number to fall, not rise ....and certainly not to reach 100!

 

On the other hand, both the Tories and the Lib Dems are likely to lose seats overall - and the Tories have fewer options for forming even a minority administration without a coalition, as the SNP won't be an option for them, surely? Their only options seem likely to be the badly damaged Lib Dems or small numbers of Ulster Unionists or UKIPpers.

 

A bet that I'm finding attractive is the one at Ladbrokes: 10-1 against the Tories winning most seats but Miliband being next PM....could easily happen, I reckon.

 

Another interesting Ladbrokes bet is 33-1 against the Tories and Labour winning an equal number of seats. Statistically unlikely, you'd imagine, but the polls currently suggest that they could easily be within 10 seats of one another, so could be worth a small stake. If it is indeed a very close election, it could all add to the fun.... Barring a very strong Tory result, which would be too depressing, I can see myself being up all night and most of the next day for this one.....no work on Friday 8th May, I suspect!

[Webbo]

So the tories could have the same number of seats in scotland as Labour. I would love that.

[Stadt]

Who do the no voters vote for in Scotland? 

[Alf Bentley]

 

So the tories could have the same number of seats in scotland as Labour. I would love that.

 

Bizarrely, the Tories could end up with more seats than Labour in Scotland (maybe 3 v 2) - and fewer seats than Labour in England, certainly England & Wales....

 

 

Who do the no voters vote for in Scotland? 

 

Have a look at Webbo's graph:

- "No" parties: Labour 27% + Tories 14% + UKIP 7% + Lib Dems 6% = 54% -> 6 seats

- "Yes" parties: SNP 43% + Greens 3% = 46% -> 53 seats!!!

 

Yet more evidence of the anomalies of the First Past the Post system!

[Stadt]

Bizarrely, the Tories could end up with more seats than Labour in Scotland (maybe 3 v 2) - and fewer seats than Labour in England, certainly England & Wales....

 

 

 

Have a look at Webbo's graph:

- "No" parties: Labour 27% + Tories 14% + UKIP 7% + Lib Dems 6% = 54% -> 6 seats

- "Yes" parties: SNP 43% + Greens 3% = 46% -> 53 seats!!!

 

Yet more evidence of the anomalies of the First Past the Post system!

I did but I didn't understand it, thanks though alf

[Alf Bentley]

I did but I didn't understand it, thanks though alf

 

No probs. The fact that I understood it probably reflects badly on my tedious life sitting at home looking at stuff on the PC, instead of getting out doing something more interesting.

 

In short, the 2015 figures in Webbo's chart are from a recent poll. The bar chart uses that poll to project how many seats each party might win in Scotland, compared to the 2010 election. The doughnut graphic (top right) shows each party's prospective vote percentage, as recorded in the poll.

[Sir Fynwy]

Bizarrely, the Tories could end up with more seats than Labour in Scotland (maybe 3 v 2) - and fewer seats than Labour in England, certainly England & Wales....

Have a look at Webbo's graph:

- "No" parties: Labour 27% + Tories 14% + UKIP 7% + Lib Dems 6% = 54% -> 6 seats

- "Yes" parties: SNP 43% + Greens 3% = 46% -> 53 seats!!!

Yet more evidence of the anomalies of the First Past the Post system!

First past the post is one of the lamest forms of democracy available but the main parties have procrastinated about changes because it was working for them and now it's too late to fix the system before the potential chaos in May.

[leicsmac]

First past the post is one of the lamest forms of democracy available but the main parties have procrastinated about changes because it was working for them and now it's too late to fix the system before the potential chaos in May.

 

Exactly. Hopefully the chaos after May will result in electoral reform. The more chaos and deadlock, the more likely it will be to happen.

[Guest MattP]

As a Labour supporter, I agree that these are useless tactics. People attacking Farage, verbally or physically, will change nobody's mind. 

 

The best thing that happened to the BNP in my opinion wasn't egging Nick Griffin, punching BNP parliamentary candidates in the face or the UAF marches against them, it was allowing Nick Griffin to go on Question Time and humiliate himself by showing how poorly thought out his policies actually were. The BNP have never recovered from that body blow, and they were on the verge of becoming a fairly large political force at the time with seats on various councils and in the European Parliament.

 

I'm not suggesting UKIP are in the BNP's league of racism, though they have undoubtedly picked up a lot of voters who might otherwise have gone for BNP if they were still a viable party, but the point still stands. The best way to tackle somebody you disagree with is to let them speak and give them enough rope to hang themselves. 

 

Just been having a read about that QT appearance and it's an interesting discussion about what really brought down the BNP. According to the wiki page they actually increased in support after it and got a better vote in 2010 than they did in 2005 so i think we might be re-writing history a bit with the thought the QT show did it.

 

It's important to remember their support was never that big in the first place, the Greens even managed to win a seat in the European Elections but I think it mainly down to Griffin's views (holocaust denial will also haunt) and failure to turn the party into the mainstream in the same way a Marine La Pen or Pym Fortyn managed to in France or Holland (In reality you probably need a women or a homosexual to do so now) rather than a straight white male.

 

UKIP might have picked up a lot of the BNP vote (although I think a lot would have returned to Labour, they are also the only party who will openly still take BNP councillors as defectors) but Farage has certainly put what's was left of the BNP to bed, a proper respectable leader with moderate views in comparison and finally a face of the anti mass immigration and EU viewpoint that you can vote for and tell people you vote for.

 

Personally think it a combination of the media, finances, the rise of UKIP and the fact Griffin couldn't modernise them rather than the TV appearance though. I remember a lot feeling sorry for Griffin after the show as it was a massive hatchet job, they changed the whole format of the show for one night just to vilify him.

 

Therein lies my worry with people voting for UKIP. A vote for UKIP is a vote for Farage. I'll give him his dues as he's been a breath of fresh air and he's played a blinder of the last 18 months particularly but for me

 

The second point of this is something I strongly agree with.

 

As someone who is a regular viewer of PMQ's and a lot of the debates in the house, give me Galloway, Farage, Salmond, Mogg, Skinner, Bennett etc in the house representing wider view points and giving off thought provoking opinions rather than another six pointless backbenchers from Labour or the Tories.

 

I don't know how anyone could serously prefer the latter.

 

Another interesting Ladbrokes bet is 33-1 against the Tories and Labour winning an equal number of seats. Statistically unlikely, you'd imagine, but the polls currently suggest that they could easily be within 10 seats of one another, so could be worth a small stake. If it is indeed a very close election, it could all add to the fun.... Barring a very strong Tory result, which would be too depressing, I can see myself being up all night and most of the next day for this one.....no work on Friday 8th May, I suspect!

 

That looks a very decent bet - I'd certainly have the possibility of that closer to 8-10% than 3% with the way the polls are at the minute.

 

I'll be doing the whole lot as well i think, it's promising to be the most exciting night in politics I can remember in my lifetime.

 

 

So the tories could have the same number of seats in scotland as Labour. I would love that.

 

So would I after having to hear that stupid 'More Pandas' joke from every Scottish Labour MP virtually every time the Tories were spoken about North of the border.

 

Exactly. Hopefully the chaos after May will result in electoral reform. The more chaos and deadlock, the more likely it will be to happen.

 

I hope so, but I just can't see it, Labour and the Tories know that a change from FPTP means neither will ever be getting an outright majority again so I just don't see either of them agreeing to it.

 

They campaigned together against the AV (barring a small minority of MP's) and they would do the same again here.

[leicsmac]

 

I hope so, but I just can't see it, Labour and the Tories know that a change from FPTP means neither will ever be getting an outright majority again so I just don't see either of them agreeing to it.

 

They campaigned together against the AV (barring a small minority of MP's) and they would do the same again here.

 

You could well be right, but if it came down to a direct referendum after months of deadlock and no political decisions at all, the situation might be different to how it turned out before. The 'Vote for AV' campaign was terribly mismanaged last time round too - what is lying just down the road could provide them with the ammunition they need to make a better fist of it this time.

[Alf Bentley]

I hope so, but I just can't see it, Labour and the Tories know that a change from FPTP means neither will ever be getting an outright majority again so I just don't see either of them agreeing to it.

 

They campaigned together against the AV (barring a small minority of MP's) and they would do the same again here.

 

Like Leicsmac, I'd be hopeful that the mood of the country on electoral reform (majority opposed) might change rapidly if the election leads to prolonged instability or to a manifestly unfair result.

 

Polls currently suggest that both scenarios are very likely. A minority government, possibly propped up by 2 or more parties is looking quite likely. It's also very possible that the Tories will get most votes (and possibly most seats) but that Labour will end up forming the government. It's looking likely that the SNP will win 90% of Scottish seats with less than 50% of the vote. It's looking likely that UKIP and the Greens will clock up 20-25% of the national vote between them but get about 5 seats and 1 seat, respectively. Surely that will set a few people thinking - even on the Tory side?

 

As for Labour, I had to check my memory, as I knew that Miliband and a lot of other Labourites had campaigned for a Yes vote in the AV referendum. Labour allowed its MPs to take either side and certain Labour politicians joined most of the Tories in supporting a No vote. However, of those still likely to be significant players after the election, many more were in the Yes camp (Miliband, Johnson, Sadiq Khan, Hain, Bradshaw, Alexander, Abbott). Most of those in the No camp were crusty New Labour has-beens like Margaret Beckett, Blunkett, Prescott, Blears, John Reid. About the only No supporter likely to be in a Labour cabinet / shadow cabinet is Caroline Flint, and Miliband might well want rid of her, too, given her strong Blairite allegiances.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011#Political_parties

[Guest MattP]

I just don't see it at all, if anything they might use the chaos after the election to show exactly what it would be like every single year under PR. I find it impossible to think either of the Main parties could ever support something that can only do them serious harm long term - I do hope I'm wrong though.

 

Probably the most unsurprising defection of the political scene occured last week when 'A Boy Named Jack' Melissa Munroe finally turned off her Labour party Microwave and has gone over to Greens.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-supporter-jack-monroe-switches-allegiance-to-green-party-10114989.html

 

I'm sure the irony won't be lost on most people that an anti-poverty campaigner has now joined a party who openly admits to wanting to take the country back into recession and to force people into what they argue in other debates as 'relative poverty'.

 

 

Miliband has just been outdone at PMQ's, first question "Will he give a cast iron guarantee of no increase in VAT?" Cameron "Yes" - cue howls of laughter from the chamber.

 

I think they've been deliberately dodging that question on all the political shows just for that moment today

[Guest MattP]

Some great heckling today - I can't believe people want to see the end of this, schoolyard yes but bloody amusing.

 

We've got Labour MP's shouting 'Dustbins' at Caroline Lucas and Tories shouting 'SNP Gain' whenever a Scottish Labour MP's name is called.

[Rincewind]

I remember a few years back when the liberals (before the split0 were campaigning for it someone saying that if they got in power they would not then want it. The way it is now ensures only two parties fight it out so they can blame each other when they take turns and do things to try and keep the 35% vote to get in. Its a scandal when 2/3 of the country don't vote for a party and they can dictate policies a lot of people did not vote for. That goes for Labour too.

[ramboacdc]

I remember a few years back when the liberals (before the split0 were campaigning for it someone saying that if they got in power they would not then want it. The way it is now ensures only two parties fight it out so they can blame each other when they take turns and do things to try and keep the 35% vote to get in. Its a scandal when 2/3 of the country don't vote for a party and they can dictate policies a lot of people did not vote for. That goes for Labour too.

and yet the AV vote was shot down in flames!

the boundary changes the tories tried to bring in was a joke. that was the time i realized they were trying to seize power in a majority. If they did this the country would be absolutely screwed in my eyes. The liberals have done well to keep them in check in my eyes. 

[Alf Bentley]

A bet that I'm finding attractive is the one at Ladbrokes: 10-1 against the Tories winning most seats but Miliband being next PM....could easily happen, I reckon.

 

Another interesting Ladbrokes bet is 33-1 against the Tories and Labour winning an equal number of seats. Statistically unlikely, you'd imagine, but the polls currently suggest that they could easily be within 10 seats of one another, so could be worth a small stake. If it is indeed a very close election, it could all add to the fun.... Barring a very strong Tory result, which would be too depressing, I can see myself being up all night and most of the next day for this one.....no work on Friday 8th May, I suspect!

 

Sod it! That first bet has just come in from 10-1 to 7-1. That'll teach me to dither before putting a bet on.....

[Rincewind]

I know Labour lost a lot of favour in Scotland due to the referendum to the SNP but is it certain that the old voters won't go back to them to keep the Tories out and won't lose as many seats as expected?

[Guest MattP]

Sod it! That first bet has just come in from 10-1 to 7-1. That'll teach me to dither before putting a bet on.....

 

Not surprised at that at all.

 

Might have my first bet next week - think Tories/Lib Dem Coalition is slightly overpriced at 13/2. I think the potential chaos of what's upcoming might just see a lot of people sticking to what we have at the minute.

 

I know Labour lost a lot of favour in Scotland due to the referendum to the SNP but is it certain that the old voters won't go back to them to keep the Tories out and won't lose as many seats as expected?

 

Scotland is going more yellow than my or your liver Ken. Most Yes Voters now seem to see Labour and the Tories as 'two cheeks on the same arse' to quote a Gallowayism.

[Alf Bentley]

Miliband has just been outdone at PMQ's, first question "Will he give a cast iron guarantee of no increase in VAT?" Cameron "Yes" - cue howls of laughter from the chamber.

 

I think they've been deliberately dodging that question on all the political shows just for that moment today

 

Saw this on the lunchtime news. I'm often amazed at people's lack of thoroughness these days. Surely, even if you're expecting one answer to a question, you have a response prepared in case you get the opposite answer? Shocking incompetence!

 

Most people will pay little attention, though, and Labour will still be able to run VAT as a (realistic) scare story - likewise the Tories with National Insurance.

 

 

I know Labour lost a lot of favour in Scotland due to the referendum to the SNP but is it certain that the old voters won't go back to them to keep the Tories out and won't lose as many seats as expected?

 

It's not certain, Ken, but I reckon it's pretty unlikely that many SNP voters will return to the Labour fold at this stage. Mind you, it wouldn't take all that many to hand some seats back to Labour, as the majorities in a lot of them are absolutely massive.

 

I still reckon Labour are in for a pasting north of the border. They're almost certain to do a lot better in England than in Scotland! The Lib Dems also look set to lose all but 1-2 seats in Scotland (and they have about 10-12, I think). The Tories only have 1 seat to lose - and might even gain 1-2, due to the oddities of the electoral system (in 1 or 2 rural seats, votes switching from Labour/Lib Dem to SNP could hand the seat to the Tories - not more than a couple, though).

[Guest MattP]

This is an interesting market - I think Farage whilst short at 2/1 looks an absolute shoo-in to win this when it goes to the polls afterwards.

 

Cameron will be on the defensive as he's got to defend a record rather than be able to promise new things, Miliband just isn't very good at these sort of things and get's done at PMQ's most weeks, Sturgeon and Wood have nowhere near enough UK wide support to win.

 

Clegg might not be a bad price at 12's - he did very well in these last time out it depends though whether people will be voting on skills of the debate or the party they are voting for.

 

Bennett - Well, we've all seen her, will fall apart as soon as the 'How will you pay for it?' question comes along.

 

Debate Winner

Time Event Selection Odds

02 Apr. 20:00

7 Way Live TV Debate

 

Nigel Farage (UKIP) 2/1    

David Cameron (Conservatives) 11/4    

Ed Milliband (Labour) 4/1    

Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) 8/1    

Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats) 8/1    

Natalie Bennett (Green Party) 12/1    

Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru) 33/1

[leicsmac]

Not surprised at that at all.

 

Might have my first bet next week - think Tories/Lib Dem Coalition is slightly overpriced at 13/2. I think the potential chaos of what's upcoming might just see a lot of people sticking to what we have at the minute.

 

 

Scotland is going more yellow than my or your liver Ken. Most Yes Voters now seem to see Labour and the Tories as 'two cheeks on the same arse' to quote a Gallowayism.

 

I think that could be the result more than 2 times out of 15, though not many more. Decent value bet, I guess. Though I'm not sure enough people will see and appreciate what chaos does lie ahead to stop it from happening.

 

Honestly can't see the Lib Dems gaining enough seats to be able to push the Tories over the finish line.

[Rincewind]

I tend to agree Matt but I see one as the less painful  of two boils on that arse.

[Guest MattP]

I think that could be the result more than 2 times out of 15, though not many more. Decent value bet, I guess. Though I'm not sure enough people will see and appreciate what chaos does lie ahead to stop it from happening.

 

Honestly can't see the Lib Dems gaining enough seats to be able to push the Tories over the finish line.

 

It looks a bit of value to me.

 

The Lib Dems (according to bookies) are going to hit about 27-28 seats, so it's effectively 15/2 on the Tories getting just over 310 which is certainly feasible if they have a decent month before the election.

 

Even more feasible with Alec Salmond everyday looking more and more like a hostage taker of Ed Miliband with a ransom note that would make ISIS blush.

[leicsmac]

It looks a bit of value to me.

 

The Lib Dems (according to bookies) are going to hit about 27-28 seats, so it's effectively 15/2 on the Tories getting just over 310 which is certainly feasible if they have a decent month before the election.

 

Even more feasible with Alec Salmond everyday looking more and more like a hostage taker of Ed Miliband with a ransom note that would make ISIS blush.

 

310 is a push for Labour or the Tories IMO. 

 

Do agree regarding the SNP though - honestly can't see there being a coalition there, Miliband knows it would be political suicide, better to take his chances six months later. The only possible coalition deal is the one you're sticking money on...anything bigger, involving more parties (even as a C/S agreement) wouldn't last six months.