Election Predictions Quiz

[Webbo]

3 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

I thought that, but @MattP has gone for a majority of 80, but only 365 seats - is it double the amount over 325?

You're right, I'm wrong. You do need more than half for a majority. If you have 350 seats the other parties together can only get 300, so that would be a 50 seat majority. My bad.

[Benji]

1 hour ago, theessexfox said:

I thought that, but @MattP has gone for a majority of 80, but only 365 seats - is it double the amount over 325?

Would have thought so - for every one you gain you're taking one way from someone else.

 

Don't follow this enough to answer all questions but I reckon a Tory majority of 87.

[Guest MattP]

11 minutes ago, Benji said:

Would have thought so - for every one you gain you're taking one way from someone else.

 

Don't follow this enough to answer all questions but I reckon a Tory majority of 87.

86 or 88

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

You're right, I'm wrong. You do need more than half for a majority. If you have 350 seats the other parties together can only get 300, so that would be a 50 seat majority. My bad.

 

Yep. That's my understanding. There's a minor complication with the Speaker, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.

Anyway, I'm sure we can accept the BBC's definition, as everyone agrees that it is a respected and impartial institution. 

 

They sometimes talk about the "working majority", excluding the Speaker - and Sinn Fein MPs, who refuse to sit in parliament.

 

But, basically, overall majority is double the margin above 325 seats, I think.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

Last call for contestants in the bumper fun election quiz.

 

Only entries posts made (or edited) before 9.45pm will be accepted. Any later submissions will be strictly verboten.

 

If there are no more contestants, there should be a fabulous celebrity prize for everyone....and we don't want that, surely?

[Harry - LCFC]

I edited my answer to Question 1 based on Alf's post defining what an overall majority is. Had put down 1-40, then realised I actually meant 41-80 having predicted the Conservatives to take 361 seats.

 

I was late but that's the only thing I changed, promise!

[Benji]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

86 or 88

 

 I'll pretend it was a joke.

[Sharpe's Fox]

Looks like @LiberalFox has won at a glance. Hopefully it makes up for Clegg being binned.

[Alf Bentley]

4 hours ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Looks like @LiberalFox has won at a glance. Hopefully it makes up for Clegg being binned.

 

I'll try to do the marking and award the prizes by tomorrow (Sat.).

 

Too knackered at the moment after staying up the whole of the night. Got 4 hours kip 10am-2pm. 

[Alf Bentley]

 

OK, folks, here's the final predictions league table - and a listing of the exciting prizes awarded (answers to the quiz are below):

 

1. Liberal Fox 14pts - 5 yrs repossessing homes with Theresa

2. Swan Lesta 6pts - 5 yrs sinking Trident with Jezza

3. KingGTF 5pts - Night of torrid sex with Tim F

4. Sharpe's Fox 4pts - Highland Fling with Nicola

5. Mark_w 2pts - Quran-effect beer mat & ash-try signed by Farage

6. Alf Bentley 2 pts - Caroline Lucas green trouser suit

7. The Doctor 1pt - Maths GCSE retake with Diane A.

8. MattP 0pts - Swallows a thesaurus with Boris the Shagger

9. Harry-LCFC 0pts - Meets Leanne W to explore the green valleys

Only 9 full entries, but a couple of "rhetorical entries" share 10th prize:

10. Stan SP & Oz Leicester - Emigrate to Hungary with Nick Griffin (could be a problem, though, as I read that the Hungarians have refused to take Fat Nick, deeming him to be an undesirable immigrant! )

 

All other contributors share the consolation prize: 6 months of lustful line-dancing with Arlene Foster (but don't get her up the duff unless you plan to marry her or to pay maintenance, as abortion is strictly prohibited )

 

Many congratulations to @LiberalFox on a great triumph - the only one to correctly predict a hung parliament; also very close with seat numbers (within 3 for Tories, within 9 for Lab) & got 10 out of 12 seat predictions correct

 

Other creditable predictions:

- Mark_w got 11 out of 12 seat predictions correct

- KingGTF got total Lib Dem seats spot on

- The Doctor predicted Nuttall's resignation and got total Lab seats in Scotland spot on

- Mark_w, Sharpe's Fox, Harry-LCFC, MattP & Alf Bentley all predicted Clegg's demise

- KingGTF, Sharpe's Fox and I all predicted Angus Robertson's defeat

 

 

On 6/7/2017 at 17:50, Alf Bentley said:

 

Answers to questions:

 

1) What will be the election result (5 points)?

- Con majority over 120? Con majority 81-120? Con majority 41-80? Con majority 1-40? Hung parliament - Con biggest party? Hung parliament - Lab biggest party? Lab overall majority? Other (specify)?

 

2) How many seats will be won by Con and Lab (330 & 232, respectively, in 2015): 318, 262

(for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 10 seats; 1pt if within 20 seats)

 

3) How many seats will be won by Lib Dems and SNP (8 & 56, respectively, in 2015): 12, 35

(for each: 3pts if spot on; 1pt if within 3 seats)

4) Which of the following will FAIL to win their seat: Amber Rudd; Vince Cable; Denis Skinner; Caroline Flint; Nick Clegg; Tim Farron; Tom Watson: Nick Clegg

(2 points for each correctly named; 1 point deducted if named wrongly)

 

5) How many seats will each of Con, Lab & LD win in Scotland (each got 1 seat in 2015): 13, 7, 4

(2 points for each if spot on, 1 point if within 1)

 

6) Name any Westminster party leaders who will have lost their seat or resigned by midnight on Friday 9th June: Angus Robertson, Paul Nuttall (Yes, I know, Nuttall was never an MP but UKIP was represented at Westminster until recently and he led their Westminster campaign.....I'll be buggered if I can identify who the SDLP or Official Unionist Westminster leaders were....but nobody named them, anyway!) 

(3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong)

 

Super-Nerd Bonus Questions (Tie-Break):

Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)?

Leicester West (Lab); Nuneaton (Con); Coventry South (Lab); Thanet South (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Lewes (Con); Brighton Kemptown (Con ->Lab); Hartlepool (Lab); Brighton Pavilion (Green), Birmingham Edgbaston (Lab), Croydon Central (Con ->Lab), Dumfries & Galloway (SNP ->Con)

 

[Guest MattP]

Thanks for the effort Alf, appreciated. 

 

Well done @LiberalFox

[LiberalFox]

20 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I'll try to do the marking and award the prizes by tomorrow (Sat.).

 

Too knackered at the moment after staying up the whole of the night. Got 4 hours kip 10am-2pm. 

 

Thank you for a good prediction thread. 

[Nick]

Well done @Alf Bentley I'll swap my trident red letter adventure for Lucas' trouser suit if you're game? ( I don't want to say why if that's okay.)