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leicsmac

US Presidential Election 2024

By leicsmac, in General Chat

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leicsmac

leicsmac

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In all seriousness about the topic above, I am agog to know how the scientific and environmental policy of a Trump administration would be the lesser of two evils for our species and the biosphere.

 

Seriously, I'd love to hear a cogent argument on that.

ozleicester

ozleicester

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Fair play, we got a damn good deal 

Its almost like a socialised system is for the best.. huh, whaddya know

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leicsmac

leicsmac

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Trump now creeping ahead in poll data in vital battleground states.

 

May future generations forgive us for what we leave them.

 

NB. If anyone wants me to put regular polling numbers up here as things develop between now and Nov 5, I can.

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Torquay Gunner

Torquay Gunner

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Trump now creeping ahead in poll data in vital battleground states.

 

May future generations forgive us for what we leave them.

 

NB. If anyone wants me to put regular polling numbers up here as things develop between now and Nov 5, I can.

I just don't think the polls in the US are particularly accurate and I note the BBC( averages used by part of ABC) still has Harris just ahead in four of those swing states, with Trump marginally ahead in the other three.

Edited by Torquay Gunner
leicsmac

leicsmac

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38 minutes ago, Torquay Gunner said:

I just don't think the polls in the US are particularly accurate and I note the BBC( averages used by part of ABC) still has Harris just ahead in four of those swing states, with Trump marginally ahead in the other three.

I would think that the pollsters have taken into account Trumps cvnt of personality this time and ran the numbers, but who knows?

 

I use Realclearpolitics.com for my polling data since 538 went down the pan, hopefully I'm wrong.

 

13 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Doesn’t Trump need all of the swing states to win? 

I'll have to look closer, but my initial thoughts are that seeing he has Ohio and Florida pretty much sorted, he may not need all the other critical ones.

Edited by leicsmac
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leicsmac

leicsmac

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Alright then, let's have a quick look at the bigger picture:

 

Remember, it's 270 to win.

 

Solid Harris:

 

California (54)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District Of Columbia (3)

Hawaii (4)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (11)

New York (28)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Washington (12)

TOTAL: 139

 

Probable Harris:

 

Colorado (10)

Illinois (19)

New Jersey (14)

Oregon (8)

Maine CD1 (1)

TOTAL: 52

 

Leaning Harris:

 

Maine (2)

New Hampshire (4)

New Mexico (5)

Virginia (13)

TOTAL: 24

 

GRAND TOTAL: 215

 

Solid Trump:

 

Alabama (9)

Arkansas (6)

Idaho (4)

Indiana (11)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Nebraska (4)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Utah (6)

West Virginia (4)

Wyoming (3)

TOTAL: 93

 

Probable Trump:

 

Alaska (3)

Iowa (6)

Kansas (6)

Missouri (10)

Montana (4)

South Carolina (9)

TOTAL: 38

 

Leaning Trump:

 

Florida (30)

Ohio (17)

Texas (40)

Maine CD2 (1)

TOTAL: 88

 

GRAND TOTAL: 219

 

So without the battleground states, it's 219-215 to Trump. He needs 51 more electoral votes, Harris needs 59.

 

And listing those states...

 

Arizona (11)

Georgia (16)

Michigan (15)

Minnesota (10)

Nevada (6)

North Carolina (16)

Pennsylvania (19)

Wisconsin (10)

Nebraska CD2 (1)

 

---------------------

 

So what does this all mean? Well, firstly the Beeb don't have Minnesota as a swing state...

 

And secondly, Trump arguably only needs three of these nine states - Penn, Georgia and NC - to win. Harris needs those and one more, or to at least deny him one or maybe two out of the three. Counting from the bottom up, Harris needs any seven of these to guarantee victory, while Trump needs any six. 

 

It's obvious though that the four worth 15+ are the biggest prizes - win two and you're doing well, win three and you're practically there, for either candidate. Current Beeb polling has it two and two in terms of leads, RCP actually has Trump ahead (marginally) in all four, but it's very close either way.

 

One final observation is that four years ago, Biden had decent leads in almost all of these states pretty much for most of the race. It's much, much tighter this time round.

 

 

 

 

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

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Posted (edited)

It does feel as if the momentum has shifted away from Harris. Baffles me how anyone can look at Trump and see him as in any way fit for office. I guess Americans see the world rather differently.

Edited by WigstonWanderer
Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

It does feel as if the momentum has shifted away from Harris. Baffles me how anyone can look at Trump and see him as in any way fit for office. I guess Americans see the world rather differently.

I do wonder if the initial Harris surge was ‘thank god Biden’s stepping aside’. America is just a bizarre place though politically and makes little sense to this clueless Brit. 

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leicsmac

leicsmac

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7 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

It does feel as if the momentum has shifted away from Harris. Baffles me how anyone can look at Trump and see him as in any way fit for office. I guess Americans see the world rather differently.

I'll repeat what I've said before: the events of January 6th should at the very least have ended the political careers of anyone involved (and really there was an argument for criminal charges regarding insurrection that should have been pursued more).

 

People should be free to see the world as they like depending on their own consciences, but when that worldview and choosing policy based on it directly and indirectly affects other people in a negative fashion - which is demonstrably true in the case of Trump, ask the family of Heather Heyer, to name but one - then there is a problem and there needs to be a serious conversation about it all.

 

I'm not sure what the solution is, but decisions made in the next few years will have a critical bearing on the direction of our civilisation.

davieG

davieG

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Posted

Is there any danger that the rest of the 'West' will gradually end up as mad as the USA

leicsmac

leicsmac

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11 minutes ago, davieG said:

Is there any danger that the rest of the 'West' will gradually end up as mad as the USA

I don't reckon so, unless the kak really hits the fan and then there will be much bigger problems anyway.

 

The issue for me is that the policy decisions they make resonate with the UK and practically every other place on the planet, so if they're "mad", everyone feels the burn.

Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

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Posted
22 minutes ago, davieG said:

Is there any danger that the rest of the 'West' will gradually end up as mad as the USA

UK, yes. Mainland Europe, no chance.

ozleicester

ozleicester

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, davieG said:

Is there any danger that the rest of the 'West' will gradually end up as mad as the USA

I think most have already experienced their version of it... Boris, if given time wouldve take UK down the path, Aust started down it with Morrison, however, Bolsanaro, LePen and Netenyahu are still trying.

Jattdogg

Jattdogg

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Posted (edited)

IMO either if these candidates are only going to be around for 4 years. Trump can run again and if Harris wins, I bet she gets booted out in 2028.

 

Edited by Jattdogg
leicsmac

leicsmac

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7 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

IMO either if these candidates are only going to be around for 4 years. Trump can run again and if Harris wins, I bet she gets booted out in 2028.

 

Trump is on record as saying he won't run again if he loses, and he'd be 81 in 2028... but given the man lies as easily as most people breathe, who knows?

Torquay Gunner

Torquay Gunner

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Trump is on record as saying he won't run again if he loses, and he'd be 81 in 2028... but given the man lies as easily as most people breathe, who knows?

Media outlets are finally questioning Trump’s deteriorating cognitive acuity.  I can’t imagine what he will sound like in four years time!

 

 

IMG_0203.png

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Daggers

Daggers

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Dahnsouff said:

UK, yes. Mainland Europe, no chance.

Poland

Hungary

Belarus

Russia

Italy

...And you could tag Finland, Slovakia, Croatia, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.

 

And you could pencil in France and Sweden.

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Md9

Md9

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Trump is a nutcase I have no idea how anyone would really want him in charge of anything once never mind twice 😂 and watching Elon musk jumping around like a stupid kid next to him at one rallies was ridiculous as well 

Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Poland

Hungary

Belarus

Russia

Italy

...And you could tag Finland, Slovakia, Croatia, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.

 

And you could pencil in France and Sweden.

Different sorts of mad in general I would argue, but maybe Hungary, that is a fair shout.

Jattdogg

Jattdogg

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Trump is on record as saying he won't run again if he loses, and he'd be 81 in 2028... but given the man lies as easily as most people breathe, who knows?

Ya I read about that. Honestly, I don't think him nor Biden would get through the next 4 years as father time doesn't let everyone live forever (naturally that is, i wouldnt advocate for anyone to be taken out). It's a blessing to hit your 80s. A lot of loved ones in and around my family recently haven't been as lucky. About 1 month ago I lost my aunt who was 64. Literally 5 minutes ago I heard news that my wife's uncle passed away also in his mid 60s.

 

 

16 minutes ago, Md9 said:

Trump is a nutcase I have no idea how anyone would really want him in charge of anything once never mind twice 😂 and watching Elon musk jumping around like a stupid kid next to him at one rallies was ridiculous as well 

Didn't trump then say in Detroit (after that event with Elon) that he won't allow  Chinese made autonomous cars in the US and also stated they are concerning.  

 

A lot of folks in Michigan think Harris will kill gas cars off and cost them jobs so they may not vote for her. Then you got Trump who wants gas cars but then openly campaigns with the electric musk and people vote for him. Ffs.

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