Brighton Home 2-2 Post Match Thread

[Lcfc-1992]

2 hours ago, Muzzy_no7 said:

Bobby Reid’s goal was only 0.55? Shouldn’t that be near enough a 1?

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, Lcfc-1992 said:

Bobby Reid’s goal was only 0.55? Shouldn’t that be near enough a 1?

According to that, 45 times out of a hundred, it’s not a goal.  This is where Xg is not v good. It can’t effectively take into account where goalkeeper and defenders are - the attackers body shape,  pace of the cross and whether the ball is on the floor or not. 

[Chelmofox]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

According to that, 45 times out of a hundred, it’s not a goal.  This is where Xg is not v good. It can’t effectively take into account where goalkeeper and defenders are - the attackers body shape,  pace of the cross and whether the ball is on the floor or not. 

I really need to read up on the models. Does Bobby's xg apply from the moment he receives the ball or from the move as a whole? Because if its the move, i think Vardy's pass is above average and thats where i think a lot of teams would have missed.

[Lcfc-1992]

4 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

I really need to read up on the models. Does Bobby's xg apply from the moment he receives the ball or from the move as a whole? Because if its the move, i think Vardy's pass is above average and thats where i think a lot of teams would have missed.

I thought it was the chance itself and how difficult it is to finish it. About 10 yards out with the goalie to one side is about as easy as it gets 

[Babylon]

18 hours ago, splinterdream said:

 

Supporters can influence the success of a club on and off the pitch, via being the 12th man during the game, and giving the club a reputation of being a great place to play your football as a player.

 

It's also great for the young supporters when the atmosphere is buzzing till the final whistle. It's should be the business of every supporter

It's a game of football, you'd do well to remember not EVERYONE thinks like you, or thinks it's the be all and end all of life. Late teens early twenties I thought similar to you, now I couldn't give a rats ass as I'm well aware there are things far more important than a game of football, or whether someone is there for every second of it. 

[Babylon]

5 minutes ago, Lcfc-1992 said:

I thought it was the chance itself and how difficult it is to finish it. About 10 yards out with the goalie to one side is about as easy as it gets 

Seeing as he's barely been able to kick a ball stright since he got here, I think they are about right. 

[st albans fox]

7 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

I really need to read up on the models. Does Bobby's xg apply from the moment he receives the ball or from the move as a whole? Because if its the move, i think Vardy's pass is above average and thats where i think a lot of teams would have missed.

 

2 minutes ago, Lcfc-1992 said:

I thought it was the chance itself and how difficult it is to finish it. About 10 yards out with the goalie to one side is about as easy as it gets 

Assume it’s an automated system. 
 

The model is powered by historic shot-based data and typically takes into account variables such as the distance and angle to the goal, shot type (header/feet), the assist type, opponents beaten on the way, the possession nature (a rebound? An after dribble shot?), and others.

 

it clearly doesn't/can’t take all the info into account.  Reid’s chance yesterday should be 0.9.  

[Number 6]

20 minutes ago, Lcfc-1992 said:

Bobby Reid’s goal was only 0.55? Shouldn’t that be near enough a 1?

Only really get above 0.95 when it's a proper goal line tap in. Palmer against Saints in midweek was around this figure.

[Spudulike]

2 minutes ago, Babylon said:

It's a game of football, you'd do well to remember not EVERYONE thinks like you, or thinks it's the be all and end all of life. Late teens early twenties I thought similar to you, now I couldn't give a rats ass as I'm well aware there are things far more important than a game of football, or whether someone is there for every second of it. 

Of course there are things far more important than a game of football. I don't believe anyone thinks otherwise. Probably best not to turn up at all. Grim.

[splinterdream]

2 hours ago, Babylon said:

It's a game of football, you'd do well to remember not EVERYONE thinks like you, or thinks it's the be all and end all of life. Late teens early twenties I thought similar to you, now I couldn't give a rats ass as I'm well aware there are things far more important than a game of football, or whether someone is there for every second of it. 

thats fine, just dont call people with a different opinion to yourself weirdos 

[ThumbsUp]

2 hours ago, Chelmofox said:

I really need to read up on the models. Does Bobby's xg apply from the moment he receives the ball or from the move as a whole? Because if its the move, i think Vardy's pass is above average and thats where i think a lot of teams would have missed.

You won't know because none of these analytical companies publishes their methodology. You might be able to find a sentence or two somewhere saying something like "xG takes into account x, y, and z to determine the probability that a shot will be a goal" but you'll never actually know, and you'll never know to what extent. Most of them are likely just complete black boxes at the moment anyway so literally nobody knows. 

[HighPeakFox]

8 hours ago, goose2010 said:

has anything been said about Wilf? I cant seem to find anything.... 

Only the tired old canard that he's actually about 37 years old.. 

[shen]

Stats and people saying Brighton didn't create big chances - from the highlights, I felt the wasted chances by Pedro and Mitoma first half were definitely big, as was Minteh's goal. In contrast, Vardy's goal felt difficult (hitting a deflected, spinning ball on the volley with his weaker foot), while Justin's header needed a lot of power and good precision to beat the keeper. 

 

Not that it matters, but just to say I don't think the stats were a good representation of the game.

[James_lcfc]

4 minutes ago, shen said:

Stats and people saying Brighton didn't create big chances - from the highlights, I felt the wasted chances by Pedro and Mitoma first half were definitely big, as was Minteh's goal. In contrast, Vardy's goal felt difficult (hitting a deflected, spinning ball on the volley with his weaker foot), while Justin's header needed a lot of power and good precision to beat the keeper. 

 

Not that it matters, but just to say I don't think the stats were a good representation of the game.

They were definitely the better team, no denying that.

 

…but the gap between the teams wasn’t as big as I thought it would be.

 

We probably didn’t ‘deserve’ the draw, but we weren’t a million miles off.

 

We are still going to need to get better if we want to stay up, but I think the green shoots are there!