Permutations

[Cheese Me]

I've seen a few comments about what we need to do posted in various places but thought it was worth pulling together exactly what we need in one place. Mods please feel free to move if necessary but I think this deserves its own thread.

It's very simple, to ensure safety without relying on anyone else we have to:

- Win against Shef Wed or

- Draw against Shef Wed and beat Stoke

Any other combination of results means we can still go down depending on the results of others.

----------------------

If we lose both we are down unless Southampton get no more than a point from their last two games (away WBA, home Shef U)

If we draw against Wednesday and lose to Stoke - we need Wednesday not to beat Norwich at home in the last game, Southampton to get no more than two points from their last two games or one of Cov, Norwich or Barnsley to get no more points at all

If we draw against both we'll need Wednesday to get nothing against Norwich at home, one of Cov, Norwich or Barnsley to get no more than one more point or Blackpool to get no more pointd

If we lose to Wednesday then win at Stoke will keep us up but only if Wednesday don't beat Norwich, Southampton don't win their last two, Barnsley, Norwich or Cov don't win again or Blackpool don't get more than one point from their last two.

If we draw with Wednesday and lose to Stoke we need Wednesday not to beat Norwich, Southampton to get no more than two points from two games or Barnsley, Norwich or Cov to get no more points at all from their last two

----------------------

In short, yesterday gave us a great shot at staying up but we really need to do it again on Saturday or we'll be well and truly looking over our shoulders.

I think we'll do it but wanted to stress just how important it is

[The Stig]

Good post. Makes you realise we still aint safe.

[Legend_in_blue]

There's only ONE permutation we should be focussing on.

WIN THE NEXT GAME.

I like the analysis though. Good stuff that.

[Phlashman]

Did you do the if we Draw against Wednesday and Norwich lose we're safe? As Norwich play Wednesday on the last day. Norwich win or a draw, Wednesday are down we, beat them on points. Wednesday win and Norwich are down on GD. Obviously southampton could be there too, but we'd be safe.

[Joe.]

I was thinking about this on the train on the way back yesterday.

Like you say, we are still not definitely safe. Looking at the table, it's basically just avoid defeat against Wednesday. A point would put us up to 52 points where there are three other teams with a less superior goal difference to our own.

Southampton have got two very tough games up ahead, I think it'll be them that make the drop.

Did you do the if we Draw against Wednesday and Norwich lose we're safe? As Norwich play Wednesday on the last day. Norwich win or a draw, Wednesday are down we, beat them on points. Wednesday win and Norwich are down on GD. Obviously southampton could be there too, but we'd be safe.

Well I've never heard that one before.

That certainly makes for some comfortable reading!

[Daggers]

I see that you all have forgotten a very important perm in all of this...

[Guest shearfox]

We will be safe if we get a draw against stoke and weds, unless weds score a ridiculas amount of goals in their last game.

[SamL]

Good analysis

The job isn't done yet but Barnsley was a step in the right direction. We've got to be looking at winning our next game. If we lose, I can't see us getting anything from Stoke.

Even though we got a vital 3 points at Oakwell, there's still work to be done. The jobs only half done.

[Fez of Mahrez]

I've seen a few comments about what we need to do posted in various places but thought it was worth pulling together exactly what we need in one place. Mods please feel free to move if necessary but I think this deserves its own thread.

It's very simple, to ensure safety without relying on anyone else we have to:

- Win against Shef Wed or

- Draw against Shef Wed and beat Stoke

Any other combination of results means we can still go down depending on the results of others.

----------------------

If we lose both we are down unless Southampton get no more than a point from their last two games (away WBA, home Shef U)

If we draw against Wednesday and lose to Stoke - we need Wednesday not to beat Norwich at home in the last game, Southampton to get no more than two points from their last two games or one of Cov, Norwich or Barnsley to get no more points at all

If we draw against both we'll need Wednesday to get nothing against Norwich at home, one of Cov, Norwich or Barnsley to get no more than one more point or Blackpool to get no more pointd

If we lose to Wednesday then win at Stoke will keep us up but only if Wednesday don't beat Norwich, Southampton don't win their last two, Barnsley, Norwich or Cov don't win again or Blackpool don't get more than one point from their last two.

If we draw with Wednesday and lose to Stoke we need Wednesday not to beat Norwich, Southampton to get no more than two points from two games or Barnsley, Norwich or Cov to get no more points at all from their last two

----------------------

In short, yesterday gave us a great shot at staying up but we really need to do it again on Saturday or we'll be well and truly looking over our shoulders.

I think we'll do it but wanted to stress just how important it is

I would add that two draws would do it unless Wednesday win by five goals on the last day against Norwich.

Shearfox has beaten me to it.

[Bryn]

That makes one thing very clear - failure to beat Sheffield Wednesday makes our life very difficult.

[Daggers]

Good post. Makes you realise we still aint safe.

Does the Hollowayometer go up after yesterday or what?

[davieG]

Did you do the if we Draw against Wednesday and Norwich lose we're safe? As Norwich play Wednesday on the last day. Norwich win or a draw, Wednesday are down we, beat them on points. Wednesday win and Norwich are down on GD. Obviously southampton could be there too, but we'd be safe.

I was thinking about this on the train on the way back yesterday.

Like you say, we are still not definitely safe. Looking at the table, it's basically just avoid defeat against Wednesday. A point would put us up to 52 points where there are three other teams with a less superior goal difference to our own.

Southampton have got two very tough games up ahead, I think it'll be them that make the drop.

Well I've never heard that one before.

That certainly makes for some comfortable reading!

It's about the fifth time it's been posted since yesterday

[Koke]

I see that you all have forgotten a very important perm in all of this...

Is that Ian Holloway when he was 17?

[Bert]

Bert coming in poolside.

The one i worked out this morning was if QPR beat Norwich on Saturday, then we avoid defeat against Sheff Weds, then because Sheff Weds play Norwich last day we´re safe.

[davieG]

Bert coming in poolside.

The one i worked out this morning was if QPR beat Norwich on Saturday, then we avoid defeat against Sheff Weds, then because Sheff Weds play Norwich last day we´re safe.

You are a one Bert

[dog_4]

or if we draw wednesday and lose away at stoke, but norwich lose to qpr we'll stay up anyway because norwich are away at wednesday on the last day of the season, we'll stay up on goal difference

[Brainy]

Quickly looking through the thread I dont think this has been mentioned. Its obviously very unlikely but if Sheff Wed lose next week, and Norwich, Barnsley, Coventry, Southampton and ourselves win then Wednesday will be relegated.

Barnsley v Charlton

Coventry v Wolverhampton

Leicester v Sheff Wed

Norwich v QPR

West Brom v Southampton

That would leave Soton with 53 pts and Sheff Wed with 49.

[Stevosevic]

I don't think anyone has mentioned it, but we will be safe IF, we draw with Wedneday and Norwich lose to QPR.

[CupidStunt]

Dont think we need any points,hopefully southampton will get beat in there last 2 games,or at best they might get a point

there are away @ west brom = nil points,home to in form sheff utd = 1 point at best = leicesters survival

[CupidStunt]

I don't think anyone has mentioned it, but we will be safe IF, we draw with Wedneday and Norwich lose to QPR.

well spotted,and your correct...edit (just read dog_4 posted the very same thing)...but posible all the same

come on qpr

[Guest]

Dont think we need any points,hopefully southampton will get beat in there last 2 games,or at best they might get a point

there are away @ west brom = nil points,home to in form sheff utd = 1 point at best = leicesters survival

Possibly but there's one thing that we shouldn't do in such a random league, and that's rely on what 'should' happen in terms of other team's form or league position. We still need points to be secure, that's the bottom line

[CupidStunt]

aye,your right,but leicester are still a bag of crap,and heaven forbid, i can see weds turning us over on sat

btw,i was at the east coast on sat,and listened to the norwich game,and they sounded shite

[maddog]

I've seen a few comments about what we need to do posted in various places but thought it was worth pulling together exactly what we need in one place. Mods please feel free to move if necessary but I think this deserves its own thread.

It's very simple, to ensure safety without relying on anyone else we have to:

- Win against Shef Wed or

- Draw against Shef Wed and beat Stoke

Any other combination of results means we can still go down depending on the results of others.

----------------------

If we lose both we are down unless Southampton get no more than a point from their last two games (away WBA, home Shef U)

If we draw against Wednesday and lose to Stoke - we need Wednesday not to beat Norwich at home in the last game, Southampton to get no more than two points from their last two games or one of Cov, Norwich or Barnsley to get no more points at all

If we draw against both we'll need Wednesday to get nothing against Norwich at home, one of Cov, Norwich or Barnsley to get no more than one more point or Blackpool to get no more pointd

If we lose to Wednesday then win at Stoke will keep us up but only if Wednesday don't beat Norwich, Southampton don't win their last two, Barnsley, Norwich or Cov don't win again or Blackpool don't get more than one point from their last two.

If we draw with Wednesday and lose to Stoke we need Wednesday not to beat Norwich, Southampton to get no more than two points from two games or Barnsley, Norwich or Cov to get no more points at all from their last two

----------------------

In short, yesterday gave us a great shot at staying up but we really need to do it again on Saturday or we'll be well and truly looking over our shoulders.

I think we'll do it but wanted to stress just how important it is

If we draw both we are guranteed to be safe aren't we?

Wrong analysis

Our goal difference is better than Wednesday's so if we draw at Stoke and draw Saturday we will be safe.

I've got a more simple analysis, win Saturday we are safe, draw Saturday we are likely to end up being safe, lose Saturday we are likely to go down. simple.