StanSP Posted 5 January 2012 Posted 5 January 2012 Wow, even Southampton and West Ham won't get promoted! Seriously, nice analysis. I think our only hope is that nobody seems to want to get promoted this year. Neither do we though by the looks of it . Teams will end up in 1st and 2nd and be like 'oh, right, we got promoted. Yay.'
thybluefox Posted 6 January 2012 Posted 6 January 2012 Interesting to see that both Southampton and West Ham have already dropped below that worst case line at the near half way point. Indicates how close it will be at the top this season. Also, best thread on FT at the minute, properly interesting stuff with no bitching. Wonder how long it'll last Good shit Dan.
ozleicester Posted 6 January 2012 Posted 6 January 2012 Interesting and well put together, however, predicting football with stats is almost as pointless as herding cats, and especially the Championship. Stats cannot allow for form drops, injuries, manager changes (at other clubs) pressure or expectation. it will be interesting to see how the first graph matches the final positions.
Chrysalis Posted 6 January 2012 Posted 6 January 2012 Any good run will have us in the playoffs, 2 may have us top 2. By a good run i mean at least 4 wins in a row and probably unbeaten in 10 averaging at least 1.8 per game. The league is so tight thats all it will take.
DanTheMan Posted 6 January 2012 Author Posted 6 January 2012 Interesting and well put together, however, predicting football with stats is almost as pointless as herding cats, and especially the Championship. Stats cannot allow for form drops, injuries, manager changes (at other clubs) pressure or expectation. it will be interesting to see how the first graph matches the final positions. I agree with this completely - however, as I've said before, these graphs aren't really about trying to predict the future, which as you rightly say is pretty impossible in football due to all sorts of factors, regardless of current form. What I'm trying to show, is a charting of our (and other promotion rivals) current pace of picking up points after any given game, and how that would translate to a points total at the end of the season. That combined with the historical points totals required for promotion/playoffs, and the maximum points available at any given point, work together to show the likelihood of reaching the autos/playoffs. P.S. Please don't take this as me getting shirty - just trying to show my motivations...
davieG Posted 6 January 2012 Posted 6 January 2012 As it looks likely that the play-offs are our slim only chance of promotion, I appreciate it would be time consuming but it would be good to see the progress of our main challengers for a play-off spot on there,
DanTheMan Posted 6 January 2012 Author Posted 6 January 2012 As it looks likely that the play-offs are our slim only chance of promotion, I appreciate it would be time consuming but it would be good to see the progress of our main challengers for a play-off spot on there, Here we go - included the teams currently occupying the playoff slots (I can always add/remove later in the season depending on which teams are relevant): Makes for interesting viewing - we definitely need a run similar to Reading to push us into contention!
davieG Posted 6 January 2012 Posted 6 January 2012 Thanks. Inconsistency is the byword for this league, I bet it's a similar position all across the league. Note that's not a request to do one for the whole league
ozleicester Posted 6 January 2012 Posted 6 January 2012 I agree with this completely - however, as I've said before, these graphs aren't really about trying to predict the future, which as you rightly say is pretty impossible in football due to all sorts of factors, regardless of current form. What I'm trying to show, is a charting of our (and other promotion rivals) current pace of picking up points after any given game, and how that would translate to a points total at the end of the season. That combined with the historical points totals required for promotion/playoffs, and the maximum points available at any given point, work together to show the likelihood of reaching the autos/playoffs. P.S. Please don't take this as me getting shirty - just trying to show my motivations...
DanTheMan Posted 2 February 2012 Author Posted 2 February 2012 Thought I'd give this a quick update since there's been 3 games since the last one... Our Form (or "Chasing the Pack" as I like to call it): A couple of interesting points here... firstly you'll notice our's and Birmingham's form was identical between our fixtures playing Portsmouth to Peterborough (the lines match up identically). Obviously since then, Birmingham has raced on, but it shows what a little run of results can do for a team's season! Secondly, after the Southampton game, as many posters on FT rightly identified, we need an average of 2pts/game exactly to hit 76pts for the season and be pretty assured of securing a top 6 finish (the 10 season average for 6th is 76pts). A quick look at the top 2: As I said a few weeks back, this graph has no relevance to our season anymore, since hitting the auto's is basically impossible at this stage, but it is interesting to see the shift in performance from Southampton to West Ham over the last few fixtures (despite their loss in their last game). It could even be argued that Cardiff (consistent DWWDWD form) and Birmingham (great WDWWWW form + game in hand) could make a push for the autos since they are closing the gap. It could be a very tight finish to the top of the league this season!
cc_star Posted 2 February 2012 Posted 2 February 2012 2pts a game average? Win our away games, draw our home games
Raw Dykes Posted 27 February 2012 Posted 27 February 2012 Here's an update of the projected total points based on points per game so far: I've only included the four clubs best placed to challenge us for 6th place. I did one with a few more, but it was too busy and difficult to read. The following graph is similar to the last one in that it shows a projected points total, but this time, that total is based only on the team's most recent five results. It's to give a clearer idea of which team is in the best form: Again, I cut it down to just a few clubs to make it easier to read. Let me know if you want to see other clubs included.
Zingari Posted 27 February 2012 Posted 27 February 2012 Do all the trains have a buffet car service, and do I need to change at Crewe ?
Guest Posted 28 February 2012 Posted 28 February 2012 Do all the trains have a buffet car service, and do I need to change at Crewe ? Now i'm confused. Are Crewe in the Championship?
DanTheMan Posted 5 March 2012 Author Posted 5 March 2012 Only just noticed that Zingari has posted his own update based on my original work... anyway I've tidied my graph up slightly by making the lines thinner and removing the point markers to make it easier to read. Also based on their recent upsurge in form, I've added in Brighton's results since they are now also within touching distance of the playoffs... Updated Play-off Chase graph (upto and inc. Coventry win): So, we've FINALLY broken our back-to-back league win jinx that had run for over a CALENDAR YEAR! As shown by the other contenders' form - any chance of reaching 6th depends upon us getting a run together... there are obviously some tougher games (Reading, Birmingham, Blackpool, Hull) to try and get something out of, but these are also the potential '6 pointers' that will take points off teams that are around us. Regardless of the quality of players on a teamsheet, this league continues to prove that basically any team can beat anyone else. Hopefully the combined form recently has toughened our resolve and given the lads some much needed self-confidence that they are a team that is capable of beating anyone in the league. The longer we can keep the winning streak going, the more room we have in the run-in to allow for the inevitable dropped points... My logical side says we have left ourselves too much to do, but my inner Leicester fan would love to see us at least have a shot of PL by reaching the playoffs this season!
marbelladave Posted 5 March 2012 Posted 5 March 2012 Excellent analysis Dan. We are clearly the outsiders in that group, lots of ground to make up and I doubt we have any realistic chance of catching up, that said i would love to see us go on a run and, at least, threaten the playoff spots....... That would add some much needed spice to what has been a truly dissapointing season......
Guest Posted 13 April 2012 Posted 13 April 2012 Can we have an update please? Before Saturday so that we can fill very optimistic.
Raw Dykes Posted 13 April 2012 Posted 13 April 2012 Can we have an update please? Here we go... This is the graph showing the 10 clubs who were in the best positions for challenging for the playoffs a while back, and their predicted finishing points total based on their ppg at that given time. That's quite busy and difficult to read, so here's the same thing again, but with just the five teams best placed to challenge for 6th position. ...and finally, here's an update of my railway map. This is the same as the last one, but this time the ppg is based only on the points gained in each team's most recent five matches. It's volatile, but it makes it clearer to see how each club's recent form compares. As you can see, we do have the best form out of the clubs going for 6th place. If form stays the same for the next 4 games, I think we've got a decent shout. Having said that, Cardiff, Brighton and Middlesbrough must be due some good form fairly soon, surely?
Stevosevic Posted 13 April 2012 Posted 13 April 2012 Looks like we need to get past Cardiff. Let's hope form stays as it is, but of course form is only temporary.
Babylon Posted 13 April 2012 Posted 13 April 2012 This graph shows how good our season is in the head of Richie Wellens.
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.