Tory MP defects to UKIP

[Webbo]

Douglas Carswell has gone Ukip, just announced.

[sphericalfox]

does this really need a thread?

[Webbo]

Which thread would you suggest?

[ADK]

UKIP will hurt labour more than the Tories imo

[sphericalfox]

Which thread would you suggest?

amusing news stories?

[johnny the fox]

big dougie has got principles...camerons in or out vote is a joke..

[Webbo]

UKIP will hurt labour more than the Tories imo

From what I've read they targeting 12 seats and only 2 of them are Labour.

[Jon the Hat]

I am always a little cynical on moves like this.  Is he really agitating for change or does he think he can be more important in UKIP?  I could see him being a future leader there.

 

This is a significant boost to UKIP I would say, but still they wont get anywhere.

[Rincewind]

No surprise really. Quite a few Tories are part of the way there already but their chance of progress is higher with the Tories.

[Jon the Hat]

Who pays for a by-election?  Waste of money so close to an election.

[Dr The Singh]

Who pays for a by-election?  Waste of money so close to an election.

I think we need an election to elect on that!!

[johnny the fox]

net immigration was 250,000 yet again this year,theTories made an empty promise to get it under 100,000 knowing they have no control over who comes in from Europe..they are taking all of us as mugs yet again,.

[Dr The Singh]

net immigration was 250,000 yet again this year,theTories made an empty promise to get it under 100,000 knowing they have no control over who comes in from Europe..they are taking all of us as mugs yet again,.

Too right!!

[bovril]

net immigration was 250,000 yet again this year,theTories made an empty promise to get it under 100,000 knowing they have no control over who comes in from Europe..they are taking all of us as mugs yet again,.

 

And EU migration was less than non EU. And of the EU migrants a small percentage was from the newest EU countries of Bulgaria and Romania, despite UKIP's warnings. And as well all know EU migrants contribute more and take out less than those from outside of Europe. So it's not like UKIP are really getting it right on immigration.

[Rincewind]

And EU migration was less than non EU. And of the EU migrants a small percentage was from the newest EU countries of Bulgaria and Romania, despite UKIP's warnings. And as well all know EU migrants contribute more and take out less than those from outside of Europe. So it's not like UKIP are really getting it right on immigration.

They don't have to get it right as proven by all the other parties.

[Webbo]

net immigration was 250,000 yet again this year,theTories made an empty promise to get it under 100,000 knowing they have no control over who comes in from Europe..they are taking all of us as mugs yet again,.

There are only 2 parties who can win the election, 1 that wants to reduce Immigration but can't and 1 that sent out search parties when they were in power. There's 1 that wants to renogiate with the EU and give a referendum and 1 that wants more integration.

A vote for UKIP will only put Labour in.

[johnny the fox]

And EU migration was less than non EU. And of the EU migrants a small percentage was from the newest EU countries of Bulgaria and Romania, despite UKIP's warnings. And as well all know EU migrants contribute more and take out less than those from outside of Europe. So it's not like UKIP are really getting it right on immigration.

"as we all know EU migrants contribute more and take out less than those from outside Europe"    Do we?  says who?  like a lot of things an half truth gets half around the world before the real facts have got their boots on. .its a good sound bite .

[johnny the fox]

There are only 2 parties who can win the election, 1 that wants to reduce Immigration but can't and 1 that sent out search parties when they were in power. There's 1 that wants to renogiate with the EU and give a referendum and 1 that wants more integration.

A vote for UKIP will only put Labour in.

I have voted all my life and NEVER got my choice elected...so nothing new.. your preaching the politics of despair... hobson's choice..no thank you.

[bovril]

"as we all know EU migrants contribute more and take out less than those from outside Europe"    Do we?  says who?  like a lot of things an half truth gets half around the world before the real facts have got their boots on. .its a good sound bite .

 

Plenty of statistics that prove that, if you are willing to look.

[johnny the fox]

Plenty of statistics that prove that, if you are willing to look.

Lies damn lies and statistics.. you can get them to prove anything according to your point of view..

[Alf Bentley]

UKIP will hurt labour more than the Tories imo

 

From what I've read they targeting 12 seats and only 2 of them are Labour.

 

Hard to predict how it'll all pan out at the moment. They'll take some votes from all parties, but how many and in what proportion?

 

They've only named 1 Labour seat (Grimsby) as a target, I think, though they must fancy their chances in Rotherham, too, after what's just been revealed - and they did well in the council/Euro elections there, as I recall.

 

There are other seats (Thurrock, Yarmouth), though, that are definite Labour targets. If they take more Labour votes there, they could easily help the Tories to keep those seats.

However, some places, including Thanet South, where Farage is standing, are a long-shot for Labour, but UKIP could hand them to Miliband if he takes more votes from the Tories but not enough to win....

 

My best guess at the moment is that Farage will win in Thanet, but they'll probably struggle to win more than a handful of others. Their best chance is probably where the Tory & Labour (or even Lib Dem) vote is evenly split, as that means they could win with 30% or less of the vote, and I can't see them getting much higher than that in many places. Places where there has been a big scandal (Rotherham, Portsmouth South) give them a chance; apparently they're targeting the "safe" Tory seat of Aylesbury because there's a lot of discontent over the HS2 rail line. Likewise, places where immigration or Europe are big issues and sitting MPs are retiring (Grimsby) give them a chance. Essex, Kent & Lincs seem to be strong areas for them, for obvious reasons.

 

Even if they pick up half a dozen seats or more, though, they're unlikely to hold the balance of power. For a start, they'll almost certainly have fewer MPs than the SNP and the Ulster Unionists, not to mention the Lib Dems, even after the expected meltdown in their vote.

 

If they have an impact, it'll mainly be in marginal seats, handing Tory seats to Labour or vice-versa....hard to tell how that'll break down yet, but that really could affect the outcome of a close election.

[bovril]

Lies damn lies and statistics.. you can get them to prove anything according to your point of view..

 

Well yeah 95% of them are made up.

[Webbo]

Be interesting to see how the bye election goes. If Carswell loses that would be a massive blow to Ukip, if he wins it will give them momentum.

[johnny the fox]

Well yeah 95% of them are made up.

even it is the case that they are an economic benefit to the country, (who really knows) there are more things in the quality of life than money...if that is the only criteria why not let 50,million migrants in as long as they make us a profit..

[bovril]

even it is the case that they are an economic benefit to the country, (who really knows) there are more things in the quality of life than money...if that is the only criteria why not let 50,million migrants in as long as they make us a profit..

 

You're right, I don't disagree with that at all, and it's a shame that everything has to be defended in simple economic terms. I just think it's completely unfair to concentrate on EU migrants so much. I guess they're an easier target, especially as they don't vote in General Elections.