How LCFC can survive. By the numbers:

[eunmac]

There have been 33 teams since 1994/95 on 17 points or less after 21 games:

 

Results:

# of Teams Relegated:  23

# of teams Survived:  8

 

It should be noted that 27 other teams were also relegated who had more than 17 points after 21 games.

(Eg: In 2003/04 lcfc were relegated but had 19 points after 21 games. Relegated with 33 points in final table behind Everton with 39).

 

In summary 
- 60 teams relegated 1994-2013: .

- 8 teams survived having 17 points or less at this stage in the season. 

 

(So you could say our odds of survival based on prem league history is a little less than 1/6)

 

Survival based on final Pts:
The average number of points needed to survive relegation is 36.5 points

The lowest ever number of points needed to survive relegation is 31 pts (Burnley finished 18th with 30pts in 2010)

The highest number of points needed to survive is 43 pts (West Ham relegated with 42 in 2003)

 

On a positive note:

17 games remain and 51 points for grabs. We probably need 23 of those pts;

- 8 wins and we are fairly safe.
Or;

- 7W 2D 8L

- 6W 5D 6L

- 5W 8D 4L

- 4W 11D 2L

 

 

PS Data source: statto.com by trawling manually through the historical tables. 

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

Gotta imagine 36/37 will be enough this year. very hopeful.

[eunmac]

So where can we get 23 pts?
Eg: 6W 5D 6L: Here's my predictable predictions to get us safe:

 

Home Games: 4W 2D 3L

Stoke - D

Palace - W

Chelsea - L

Hull - W

West Ham - L

Swansea - D

Newcastle - W

Southampton - L

QPR - W

 

Away Games 2W 3D 3L

ManU - L

Arsenal - L
Everton - D
ManC - L

Spurs - D
West Brom - D

Burnley - W

Sunderland - W

 

6 Games to win: Burnley, QPR, Newcastle, Hull, Palace, Sunderland

5 Possible Draws: WestBrom, Stoke, Swansea, Everton, Spurs

6 Most likely Losses: Chelsea, ManU, ManC, Arsenal, Southampton, WestHam.

[eunmac]

Gotta imagine 36/37 will be enough this year. very hopeful.

 

Yes, that would be good. This years table is quite similar to 13/14 after 21 games. 34 points ended up being enough:

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2013-2014/table/2014-01-11

 

That said, I'm not sure any of the current teams this year are as poor as the three relegated sides from last year so I think we might need 38/39pts.

 

Historically safe number of points needed:

43 pts Once (West ham relegated with 42 in 2003)

42 pts 

41 pts Once

40 pts x2

39 pts 

38 pts x2

37 pts x3

36 pts x2

35 pts x3

34 pts x4

33 pts 

32 pts

31 pts Once (Burnley  in 2010)

[ThorpeAstleyFox]

I love a good numbers thread! The only thing that I do not agree with is the way that you define the number of points required for safety. In my opinion, it needs to be one point more than the 17th placed team since this is the team that you need to swap places with.

For example, in 2010 Burnley finished 18th with 30 points whilst West Ham finished 17th with 35 points - so it would not have mattered if Burnley had achieved 31, 32, 33 or 34 points (or 35 points looking at the goal differences of the two teams) - they still would have been relegated.

[cc_star]

Brilliant. Numbers!

Certainly achievable if we can maintain our performance level

QPR have only got one home game left Vs teams currently in the bottom half and they obviously can't win away

Sunderland are dire but are capable of scrapping a point when it comes down to it

Palace & West Brom may have what it takes to get 37+ points

Burnley look like they could beat anyone

So this is tough. Very, very tough

[SystonFox]

I love a good numbers thread! The only thing that I do not agree with is the way that you define the number of points required for safety. In my opinion, it needs to be one point more than the 17th placed team since this is the team that you need to swap places with.

For example, in 2010 Burnley finished 18th with 30 points whilst West Ham finished 17th with 35 points - so it would not have mattered if Burnley had achieved 31, 32, 33 or 34 points (or 35 points looking at the goal differences of the two teams) - they still would have been relegated.

Correct

[Alexikokopops]

I love a good numbers thread! The only thing that I do not agree with is the way that you define the number of points required for safety. In my opinion, it needs to be one point more than the 17th placed team since this is the team that you need to swap places with.

For example, in 2010 Burnley finished 18th with 30 points whilst West Ham finished 17th with 35 points - so it would not have mattered if Burnley had achieved 31, 32, 33 or 34 points (or 35 points looking at the goal differences of the two teams) - they still would have been relegated.

Correct

Couldn't you just as easily argue "it would not have mattered if West Ham had achieved 31, 32, 33 or 34 points (or 35 points, like they did) - they still would have survived"? Hence why the OP is going for 31 as the survival point.

[cc_star]

Couldn't you just as easily argue "it would not have mattered if West Ham had achieved 31, 32, 33 or 34 points (or 35 points, like they did) - they still would have survived"? Hence why the OP is going for 31 as the survival point.

Even more correct, that is the points required to finish 17th and be safe

[ThorpeAstleyFox]

Couldn't you just as easily argue "it would not have mattered if West Ham had achieved 31, 32, 33 or 34 points (or 35 points, like they did) - they still would have survived"? Hence why the OP is going for 31 as the survival point.

It really depends on your position in the table. If you were one of the three relegated clubs then 31 points would not have kept you up. If you were not one of the three relegated clubs then 31 points would keep you above the relegation zone. Since we are currently in the relegation zone, I believe that we should be looking at the former - this is often referred to as "points to safety" for clubs in our position.

[ThorpeAstleyFox]

Even more correct, that is the points required to finish 17th and be safe

Only if you were already in the top 17 - 31 points would have done nothing for the three relegated teams!!!

[CosbehFox]

I wouldn't write any game off at home bar Chelsea and there's a chance we might catch them in late April when they want to rest players.

[tripe]

Home Games: 5W 3D 1L - 18 points

Stoke - W

Palace - W

Chelsea - L

Hull - W

West Ham - D

Swansea - D

Newcastle - W

Southampton - D

QPR - W

Away Games 1W 4D 3L - 7 points

ManU - L

Arsenal - L

Everton - D

Man. C. - L

Spurs - D

West Brom - D

Burnley - W

Sunderland - D

5 Games to win: Stoke, Palace, Hull, Burnley, QPR, Newcastle, ,

7 Possible Draws: West Brom, Swansea, Everton, Spurs, Sunderland, Southampton, West Ham

4 Most likely Losses: Chelsea, Man. U, Man. C, Arsenal

A win against Stoke is a must. You must keep the momentum. Show the league you mean business. You need to capitalise on the last few games with a good wih against them.

It's important not to lose against direct opponents. Especially at home. Hull, QPR at home must be won. A win against Palace would be great, but I rate them more then the rest of the relegation strugglers. Also, you need to take as many points as possible at home. You've got West Ham, Newcastle and Southampton at home. Hard games, but you can take some points here. Newcastle game must be won. The Chelsea game is a bonus. I rate them as the best team in the league and Mou as the best manager around.

Away from home it's important not to lose at Burnley. West Brom and Sunderland. These are games that are worth "double" points. Points from the other games are a bonus. You can't expect to go to Everton or to Man. U. and win.

My plan is a bit optimistic, 25 points, but I'll be happy with a couple less (a loss at Everton or Spurs) as long as the games against direct opposition are not lost.

I'd say 36 points will be enough this season. You've got 17. That's 19 to go. 21 to make it safe. It can be done!!!

Jan, 17. vs Stoke 3 (20)

Jan, 31. @ Man. U 0 (23)

Feb, 7. vs Palace 3 (23)

Feb, 22. @ Everton 1 (24)

Feb, 28. vs Chelsea 0 (24)

Mar, 3. @ Man. C 0 (24)

Mar, 14. vs Hull 3 (27)

Mar, 21. @ Spurs 1 (28)

Apr, 4. vs West Ham 1 (29)

Apr, 11. @ WBA 1 (30)

Apr, 18. vs Swansea 1 (31)

Apr, 25. @ Burnley 3 (34)

May, 2. vs Newcastle 3 (37)

May, 9. vs S'hampton 1 (38)

May, 16 @ S'land 1 (39)

May, 24. vs QPR 3 (42)

When you look at your fixture list, your last 10 games give you a lot of hope.

[pSinatra]

We are within 3 points of the 5 teams above us, as it stands.

 

We don't know how many points we will need to survive & you can look at what has happened in previous seasons to give an idea.

 

All we need to do is obtain 3 or more points than the 5 teams above us & we will survive.  You might want to include West Brom, Villa & even Everton who are struggling for form at the moment.

 

To obtain 3 more points than three out of  QPR, Burnley, Hull, Sunderland, Palace, West Brom, Villa & Everton is not impossible.  

[LCCFox96]

Too early to read into the numbers imo. We are still in a bleak position but are closing the gap on the rest of the pack as we've cut it from 6 points to 2 points in 3 games. The better we keep our defensive concentration and performance level up (as per yesterday) and the more we take our chances (hopefully a bit better than yesterday) then the longer we keep our current run of form up and continually those numbers will look better. At home we need to beating our relegation rivals and taking 3 points much more often than the first half of the season but on the road any points are good points for us now.

[Christoph]

I think we have a real good chance of survival. Our last 6 games of the season are all fairly winnable and I think it's going to be the case of going to the wire on the last game of the season. 

[st albans fox]

That run of four home games against west ham, Swansea, Newcastle and Southampton could be a godsend. it's quite feasible that these four will have nothing to play for when we face them. not likely to challenge for the top six and not in any danger of relegation. hopefully some of them still in the cup when we face them.

As long as we manage to draw the away fixtures against those around us, we would then be ok. It's absolutely paramount that after our terrible run, we don't lose to any of the bottom 7/8 sides for the rest of the campaign. A draw away is not a poor result against them.

[eunmac]

Everyone is completely correct saying that it's the teams below you that define safety which is why there are two different sets of numbers to bear in mind (average points vs relative position to other teams). Of course stats only get you so far, so pinch of salt. It's a bit of fun.

 

Anyway let's take a quick look at how the teams around us are going relative to a couple of prev years:

 

In 2013-14 the bottom half of the table amassed 196 points after 21 games, the top half 387pts. Total gap between top and bottom 191pts

This year the bottom half of the table amassed 206 points after 21 games, the top half 364pts. Gap between top and bottom 158 pts

In 2003 (worst year to survive 41 pts needed) the bottom half of the table amassed 227points after 21 games, the top half 346pts. Gap between top and bottom 119 pts

 

 

In short this years bottom half teams are 10 pts better off than last, the top half teams 23 points worse. 

 

Laymans terms: Bottom half teams are performing better this year than last against the top half. 33pts total difference.

 

 

Conclusion:
- It doesn't look like a 41 pt survival year.  

- Based on current trends an average bottom half club this year will likely have approx 2 pts more each by the end of the season than last.

- 36/37 pts could be enough, unlikely to be less. I'm going with 38 points for an lcfc safety mark.

[eunmac]

I love a good numbers thread! The only thing that I do not agree with is the way that you define the number of points required for safety. In my opinion, it needs to be one point more than the 17th placed team since this is the team that you need to swap places with.

For example, in 2010 Burnley finished 18th with 30 points whilst West Ham finished 17th with 35 points - so it would not have mattered if Burnley had achieved 31, 32, 33 or 34 points (or 35 points looking at the goal differences of the two teams) - they still would have been relegated.

 

You could look at it that way but equally it did not matter if West Ham got 35,34,33,32,31 points... They still would have been safe in 17th with 31 pts.

Ironically if Burnley had beaten West Ham away not lost, West ham would finish on 32 pts, Burnley on 33. The whole table changes on one game. 6 pointer!

 

So rather than figure out how 18th might have made 17th, it's prob easier just to look at what the 17th team required in the end to survive.

 

Anyway, all I'm interested in is how we end up with three teams below us!