Stadt

Goal probability or something probably would help. I think having non-whole number goals is too weird for some people to wrap their head around too.

Rather than explain it less succinctly, this video will explain it better. Basically if you're fine with shots as a metric, you should be fine with xG because it's just shots with more context.

People are probably bored of the discussion around it but 99% of the people arguing against xG just don't understand it.

Because they have good players and coaches their analysts helped identify by looking at their stats, predicated mostly on xG.

I'm not a fan of expected points, preferring to use xG, xA and xGD. With expected points you have to make a very arbitrary calculation that say .3 between two teams is a draw and more than that is a win. There's a reason the analytics departments of the world's best and smartest clubs lean on it so heavily. I'd really recommend How to win the premier league, Ian Graham, Liverpool's director of research's book

They're not hyper efficient but they're the best predictor of future performance. The correlation is pretty clear between goals and xG

There's 96 teams in Europe's top 5 leagues, we're... 94th for xG 87th for xGA 94th for xGD 95th for shots 85th for shots on target 3rd most shots against 6th most shots on target against 4th shortest shot distance conceded (this is incredibly alarming given the volume) Dead last for corners as well and the German clubs have only played 6 games instead of 7. We're 7th for xG over-performance per 90 though so we've been shit AND lucky still . Get this clown out

I’m away this weekend so didn’t go. Once I’m in the ground naturally I want us to win but I want what’s best for us long term - pretty obvious Cooper with 1 win in 7 isn’t that.

During 22/23 I wanted to lose every game if it meant Rodgers got sacked. We did the losing part but not the sacking until it’s too late. If Cooper is here all season we’ll be lucky to win 5 or 6 games - wanting a loss bad enough to warrant a sacking is quite rational.

Cool

Phonetic Scouse is difficult

He’s always been better than Coady but he’s noh a leeeadeh with you know, what I will shay is the right mentality, you know with the right exshperience of the premier league and doenst noh warra it means to keep a footbaall club in the premier leeague

He needed this loan, he's a bit raw still so he wouldn't develop sat on our bench watching Edouard get 11 minutes.

They’re pretty dense if they think the sustainability thing flies. Whilst the owner doesn’t give a shit about the administration of the club nothing will ever improve.

Ok I can keep going, Burnley's (absolutely shit side, 24 points, 5 wins) expected goal difference per 90 last season was - 0.78 per 90 Luton, even worse than them - 0.94 per 90 Sheff United - third worst PL side ever -1.01 per 90 What are we at? -1.34 per 90 !!!!

There's lots of stats we're bottom of the league for including xG and xGA against but the one that made me laugh the most is we're bottom for corners. We've had 16 in 6 games, next fewest is 21. Even Southampton have had 30.

You'd think our DoF also being the academy director would be boon for our young players getting chances. It's bizarre to build the world's best, or the most expensive at the very least, training complex and then appoint managers who don't play younger players. The idea Steve Cooper is good with youth comes from his successful spell as u17 manager - where obviously he couldn't play 30+ year old has beens like Ayew.

I find the irritation with Guardiola misplaced. He's one of the best managers ever with incredible resources and recruitment behind him, everything is so methodical. Ok, he might take some exciting players and tone down the more hair-raising, high-risk elements of their game but it's demonstrably successful. If Russel Martin wants to play an ersatz costcutter version with relegation favourites he's a f ucking bozo. That's not Guardiola's fault.

I was dead set against the appointment in the first place - it was classic Leicester, cheap, out of work, already managed in the Premier League. It's not even as if Cooper is underperforming, this is just what he does. Besides the 3 at the back this exactly what has happened. We clearly didn't place any emphasis on analytics when appointing a manager, that's where the footballing decision makers should be starting the managerial search. These stats profile him quite well, i'm not having the 'well Forest were a circus' line either, the Boly, Aurier, Shelvey etc signings are him all over. His Forest team were 19th for xGD in 22/23 Joint 4th fewest wins: 9 (with us) 38 goals for Joint 4th for most goals conceded: 68 (with us again, shock) They basically drew their way to safety with a 9-11-18 record, hardly the right fit for a side with a points deduction. If he was appointed with a view to going down anyway - why spend over £50m net on the likes of Skipp, Ayew and Reid - clearly not players who are suited to being promotion favourites? It was all so avoidable, our strategy is shit, the processes are shit, half of the people involved are shit.

I find the incredulity about the wrong bap/roll/bread cake etc etc stuff so weird. It’s pretty obvious what people mean

Hopefully it means Braybrooke distributed via Everards, they don’t tend to push their own lagers too hard so it’d be a great result

If that cob was crusty you’d be chewing it forever. Some Americans completely missed the point, droning “it’d be ok if the onions were caramelised” it’s a £2 pub snack ffs.

That’s the one I was thinking of, those are two of the best domestic sides ever as well.

If him and Fatawu start it gives us the ability to get up the pitch and create something. They both work incredibly hard of the ball too so there's no excuse from Cooper.

There were far more loose touches, misplaced passes, bad efforts at goal, less pressing etc. Gardner's goal is weird as a 2024 viewer, it looks like it's 3 on 1 at the half way line but no the West Ham defence are about 30 yards behind the play. It's entertaining but it's low quality. I get more random games are more entertaining as there is less control but the quality its worse - it sounds like you'd be happier watching lower league football to me.