Admittedly this is very rough, back of a fag packet calculations, and I'm prepared to take abuse for this being wildly wrong and holes being picked throughout it.
Using some basic known metrics from our 2022/23 season Premier League financial results, and a comparison to 2024/25 Premier League season, I've predicted our broad figures:
2022/23
Turnover: £164m
Wages: £190m
Transfer amortisation: £77m
Sales profit: £75m
£90m loss for annual accounts
2024/25
Turnover: £174m (+£10.8m from 22/23 – based on £10.8m additional prize money for finishing 18th compared to 2 years prior)
Wages: £120m (-£50m from 22/23 – this is my own, calculated guesstimation based on players that had left between the two seasons - Tielemans, Praet, Barnes, Maddison, etc... - for what it's worth I feel I overestimated slightly)
Transfer amortisation: £50m (-£27m from 22/23 – again my own guesstimation, but tracked from the published figure for 2023/24 based on players sold/left as well as single season amortisation for players we signed such as Skipp, Ayew, etc...)
Sales profit: £4.5m (-£70m from 22/23 – only Cannon)
predicted £53.5m loss for annual accounts
I fully understand this is simplistic and there are way more variables – including ticket sales, non-playing staff costs, running costs, energy prices (Seagrave) – way more. But it's as reasonable guess as I feel we'll get to these key figures at this time.
For the 2023 to 2025 cycle PSR calculation the predicted £53.5m sits alongside 2023 (£90m) and 2024 (£19.4m) – so £163m total losses.
For the 3 seasons 2021 to 2023 combined we lost £215.5m (£33m, £92.5m, £90m), but we know that the true (accepted by PL) addbacks for that period were £91m (this document confirms we were deemed £19.5m over the £105m threshold at the hearing).
Even going with a conservative, lessened £80m add backs for 2023 to 2025, we should sit at around £83m losses after addbacks – exactly what the allowable losses are for us in those 3 years.
It's going to be tight, but I'm thinking we won't be in the same ballpark of a huge breach as we have been for other years.