Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

 

Interesting. So, 47% (26% + 21%) don't support Brexit and only 44% do support it.

 

Only a slight shift from 52%-48% to 44%-47%. Insignificant so far, as this is just a poll, not a referendum. But I'd expect that orange column to be a lot taller in a year's time.

 

I'd be in the "Re-Leavers" column myself at the moment, part of the 26% who reluctantly think we have to honour the referendum result. It cannot be reversed by a second referendum or by parliament unless there is a much bigger shift in public opinion (maybe to 25%-75% or more?). But that might happen, once we see the reality of Brexit. For now, the argument has to be about the type of Brexit

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Interesting. So, 47% (26% + 21%) don't support Brexit and only 44% do support it.

 

Only a slight shift from 52%-48% to 44%-47%. Insignificant so far, as this is just a poll, not a referendum. But I'd expect that orange column to be a lot taller in a year's time.

 

I'd be in the "Re-Leavers" column myself at the moment, part of the 26% who reluctantly think we have to honour the referendum result. It cannot be reversed by a second referendum or by parliament unless there is a much bigger shift in public opinion (maybe to 25%-75% or more?). But that might happen, once we see the reality of Brexit. For now, the argument has to be about the type of Brexit

And, as that poll shows, it's very hard to argue that there's majority support for a hard brexit. 

[Guest]

Survation poll on 17th June asked about a second referendum:

FOR a 2nd referendum - 48%

AGAINST a 2nd referendum - 43%

DON'T KNOW - 9%

[Guest]

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/would-leaving-the-eu-without-a-mutually-agreed-deal-be-good-or-bad-for-britain/

 

Also on 17th June, Survation asked:

 

Would leaving the EU without a mutually agreed deal be good or bad for Britain?

BAD - 58%

GOOD - 31%

DK - 11%

 

 

[Strokes]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/would-leaving-the-eu-without-a-mutually-agreed-deal-be-good-or-bad-for-britain/

 

Also on 17th June, Survation asked:

 

Would leaving the EU without a mutually agreed deal be good or bad for Britain?

BAD - 58%

GOOD - 31%

DK - 11%

 

 

Yeah 2072 people have spoken, give them what they want.

[Webbo]

24 minutes ago, toddybad said:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/would-leaving-the-eu-without-a-mutually-agreed-deal-be-good-or-bad-for-britain/

 

Also on 17th June, Survation asked:

 

Would leaving the EU without a mutually agreed deal be good or bad for Britain?

BAD - 58%

GOOD - 31%

DK - 11%

 

 

Obviously a deal would be better, nobody would argue differently. You won't get a good deal though unless you're prepared to walk away.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Obviously a deal would be better, nobody would argue differently. You won't get a good deal though unless you're prepared to walk away.

I'm not convinced that the EU will respond well to that sort of blackmail - agree or we'll walk.

It's an organisation that requires joint working between nations and I suspect that they'll want this to end as well as it can - even if they have to publicly deny how well. If we go in too hard I fear we might just get their backs up. 

This is not like any negotiation any one of us will have any experience of.

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

I'm not convinced that the EU will respond well to that sort of blackmail - agree or we'll walk.

It's an organisation that requires joint working between nations and I suspect that they'll want this to end as well as it can - even if they have to publicly deny how well. If we go in too hard I fear we might just get their backs up. 

This is not like any negotiation any one of us will have any experience of.

Agree to what? What ridiculous demands do you think we're going to make? They're the ones demanding money for the right to buy stuff off them. A fta agreement is in everyone's interest.

 

If they offer us a crap deal what do we do then?

[Guest MattP]

Hi, I'm here to buy that car, I want it and I'm not leaving without it. I don't care what happens but I am not leaving without that car.

 

Now can we discuss a price? You'll give me a good deal yeah?

[Guest MattP]

The Brexit means Brexit documentary that has just been on BBC2 is great.

[LiberalFox]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Hi, I'm here to buy that car, I want it and I'm not leaving without it. I don't care what happens but I am not leaving without that car.

 

Now can we discuss a price? You'll give me a good deal yeah?

It's more like you need a car for work or you lose your job and the dealer knows this.

[Guest MattP]

12 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

It's more like you need a car for work or you lose your job and the dealer knows this.

But if they didn't know you wouldn't tell them would you?

 

You have to let the dealer know you are prepared to lose the job.

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

It's more like you need a car for work or you lose your job and the dealer knows this.

But I'm not that keen of my job and dads business is doing well, I might work with him and get a lift everyday. So let's talk about that price.

Thats called a bluff, which is what we are trying. 

You may still end up paying market value but you might just get a bargain.

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Agree to what? What ridiculous demands do you think we're going to make? They're the ones demanding money for the right to buy stuff off them. A fta agreement is in everyone's interest.

 

If they offer us a crap deal what do we do then?

 

29 minutes ago, MattP said:

Hi, I'm here to buy that car, I want it and I'm not leaving without it. I don't care what happens but I am not leaving without that car.

 

Now can we discuss a price? You'll give me a good deal yeah?

 

20 minutes ago, MattP said:

But if they didn't know you wouldn't tell them would you?

 

You have to let the dealer know you are prepared to lose the job.

 

13 minutes ago, Strokes said:

But I'm not that keen of my job and dads business is doing well, I might work with him and get a lift everyday. So let's talk about that price.

Thats called a bluff, which is what we are trying. 

You may still end up paying market value but you might just get a bargain.

But we haven't got anything to bluff over - if we don't get a deal we're absolutely ****ed and they know it. 

My suspicion is that they would react better to us giving some quick concessions and this will allow them to take things forward in the right spirit. We can then start to talk about the bill for leaving and how much of EU assets that are part owned by us should be discounted off the 'price'.

The reality isn't that we can go in with a bad offer to them and expect them to keep making us better offers until we get to a middle ground. They hold all of the cards. 

[LiberalFox]

Just now, Strokes said:

But I'm not that keen of my job and dads business is doing well, I might work with him and get a lift everyday. So let's talk about that price.

Thats called a bluff, which is what we are trying. 

You may still end up paying market value but you might just get a bargain.

 

We aren't buying something though, it's a negotiation. One that has to be agreed to by 27 other countries full of just as many patriotic hotheads who will want the deal to be good for them.

 

29 minutes ago, MattP said:

But if they didn't know you wouldn't tell them would you?

 

The way the EU are behaving they seem to know already. I mean they've said before we can even do a deal we owe them money and they won't talk to us until we pay. I think the fact we've instantly capitulated on this is bad news for people who think we hold the upper hand in these negotiations. 

[Strokes]

4 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

 

We aren't buying something though, it's a negotiation. One that has to be agreed to by 27 other countries full of just as many patriotic hotheads who will want the deal to be good for them.

 

 

I was working with yours and Matts analogy, don't blame me if it's shit  

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

Ok, we're now into a new Parliament and the article 50 period...

 

proposal to stop this and the general election thread and start a new politics thread to cover the two?

 

those for say "aye"

 

those against say "noooooooo"

 

Division! 

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

 

 

 

The way the EU are behaving they seem to know already. I mean they've said before we can even do a deal we owe them money and they won't talk to us until we pay. I think the fact we've instantly capitulated on this is bad news for people who think we hold the upper hand in these negotiations. 

I think it just shows what gets said in the media should not be taken so litterally. What was the agreed figure then?

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Ok, we're now into a new Parliament and the article 50 period...

 

proposal to stop this and the general election thread and start a new politics thread to cover the two?

 

those for say "aye"

 

those against say "noooooooo"

 

Division! 

Maybe.

[LiberalFox]

Just now, Strokes said:

I was working with yours and Matts analogy, don't blame me if it's shit  

It made me smile 

 

The whole deal thing is interesting as a lot of it is purely psychological. Will the public really know if we made a good deal or not?

 

I mean the Tories will say they've done a good deal and Labour will say they've done a bad deal and the pubic will probably decide it's good or bad based on whether they like the Tories or Labour more at that point.

 

 

[LiberalFox]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I think it just shows what gets said in the media should not be taken so litterally. What was the agreed figure then?

They haven't agreed yet. That's the first round of negotiations. But we've agreed we owe them something, and also agreed we can't talk about a trade deal until we've agreed how much to pay them. Meanwhile the clock is ticking on the 2 years.

[Strokes]

Just now, LiberalFox said:

It made me smile 

 

The whole deal thing is interesting as a lot of it is purely psychological. Will the public really know if we made a good deal or not?

 

I mean the Tories will say they've done a good deal and Labour will say they've done a bad deal and the pubic will probably decide it's good or bad based on whether they like the Tories or Labour more at that point.

 

 

Believe me, I won't decide based on party loyalties. I've got no loyalties where brexit is concerned.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Ok, we're now into a new Parliament and the article 50 period...

 

proposal to stop this and the general election thread and start a new politics thread to cover the two?

 

those for say "aye"

 

those against say "noooooooo"

 

Division! 

Think we should keep Brexit seperate. Although saying that the government are going to be doing previous little else for as long as they last so what do I know?!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, LiberalFox said:

They haven't agreed yet. That's the first round of negotiations. But we've agreed we owe them something, and also agreed we can't talk about a trade deal until we've agreed how much to pay them. Meanwhile the clock is ticking on the 2 years.

21 months and counting....

[Strokes]

Just now, LiberalFox said:

They haven't agreed yet. That's the first round of negotiations. But we've agreed we owe them something, and also agreed we can't talk about a trade deal until we've agreed how much to pay them. Meanwhile the clock is ticking on the 2 years.

They are demanding 100 billion euros, if we agree a much lower figure than that and can kick on, is that not a positive start?