Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Steven]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

Just imagine how bad it will get when we have, when our trajectory is already that bad - and we then become less competitive in a booming export market like the Eurozone. 

.... but we can sign a trade deal with Canada. Errrrrr well....

 

"Newsflash: Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted, a little, in August.

Canadian GDP shrank by 0.1% in August, due to a decline in mining and manufacturing output.

Canada’s good-producing sector shrank by 0.7% during August, wiping out a 0.1% rise in service sector output.

Economists had expected GDP to rise by 0.1% in August, having been flat in July as the strong growth recorded earlier this year has faded."

[Webbo]

Just now, Steven said:

.... but we can sign a trade deal with Canada. Errrrrr well....

 

"Newsflash: Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted, a little, in August.

Canadian GDP shrank by 0.1% in August, due to a decline in mining and manufacturing output.

Canada’s good-producing sector shrank by 0.7% during August, wiping out a 0.1% rise in service sector output.

Economists had expected GDP to rise by 0.1% in August, having been flat in July as the strong growth recorded earlier this year has faded."

Is that since they signed a free trade deal with the EU?

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, KingGTF said:

For simplicity, assuming two adults per household:

 

You could give the tax-free allowance of 11500 to each adult in the poorest 40% of households for just under the current welfare bill. That is 220 a week per person. The 4th decile has an income median of 440 a week which is equal to the UBI example I give. Now I would propose extending it further but it would be tapered and in fact by the time you get to the 4th decile you'll have clawed back some anyway. Whilst you give a UBI to everyone, that doesn't mean everyone keeps it (a negative income tax means you it doesn't have to be universal, but studies show it works better if universal and taken back I think). Why is that problematic?

I'd much prefer to see higher tax free allowances than any sort of UBI, work has always been the way to take people out of poverty and letting people as much of their own earned money as possible should be a desire of any government that values it's population.

 

As I said to Toddy though, the problem is the highest parts of the welfare bill are pensions followed by housing and disability benefit, no UBI I've seen would get anywhere near the figures a lot of people with those currently claim.

 

31 minutes ago, Steven said:

So since the Brexit vote our growth has dropped by about a 1/4 of a % point and in that time it has gone up and down? Meanwhile whilst we were in the European Union before the referendum it came down over a % point in the run up to the 2015 election?

 

Thanks for the graph, proves again just how much ridiculous exaggeration we have had over the growth figures. Here's a prediction I've got that I'm sure will come true, it will continue to go up and down.

[Steven]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Have you got a graph on employment since the vote?

Labour market improvement is a big part of the bloc's recovery; unemployment rate has fallen below 9% for the first time since Jan 2009.

 

[Webbo]

Just now, Steven said:

Labour market improvement is a big part of the bloc's recovery; unemployment rate has fallen below 9% for the first time since Jan 2009.

 

I meant the UK. We have record employment or is that #despitebrexit?

[Steven]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Is that since they signed a free trade deal with the EU?

Errrr...., yes. That is why it is better to be inside the tent and pissing out than be outside the tent pissing in. (LBJ)

[Webbo]

Just now, Steven said:

Errrr...., yes. That is why it is better to be inside the tent and pissing out than be outside the tent pissing in. (LBJ)

So since Canada signed a FTA their growth has slowed and that's a good reason to stay in the EU? It makes  me think that the EU isn't all that.

[Steven]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I meant the UK. We have record employment or is that #despitebrexit?

.... but lower growth. In Britain it is cheaper to hire someone than invest in tools to make existing workers more productive.

Edited 31 October 2017 by Steven

[Steven]

Just now, Webbo said:

So since Canada signed a FTA their growth has slowed and that's a good reason to stay in the EU? It makes  me think that the EU isn't all that.

Are you deliberately missing the point?

[Webbo]

Just now, Steven said:

.... but lower growth. In Britain it is cheaper to hire some than invest in tools to make existing workers more productive.

Good reason to restrict the inflow of cheap foreign workers then?

[Innovindil]

1 minute ago, Steven said:

.... but lower growth. In Britain it is cheaper to hire some than invest in tools to make existing workers more productive.

So I won't lose my job to a robot? 

[Webbo]

Just now, Steven said:

Are you deliberately missing the point?

I must be, explain it to me.

[Guest MattP]

It is a good thing that the EU is now seeing some economic growth though, you want your neighbours to prosper as we still want to do a lot of trade with that bloc whilst we also expand our horizons across the globe, an stagnant EU can only damage us even if we can have more control over controlling it.

 

Whether it will sustain that sort of growth with the upcoming Italian banking crisis and all that's going on in Spain is yet to be seen, but let's hope it does.

[Steven]

Just now, Webbo said:

I must be, explain it to me.

1. Canada signs a trade deal whilst outside the EU
2. Canada's economy shrinks
3. EU's economy grows faster than at any time since 2009

Given the above is it better to be in the EU or sign a trade deal with the EU. You decide.

[Webbo]

The UK has been dubbed the most attractive country for employers and staff, with London retaining its crown as the top European economic city, according to a new report.

Despite the negative press surrounding Brexit and stubbornly low productivity, Britain is still luring employers based on a combination of talent, location, quality of life and cost, according to Colliers International's latest European cities of influence report.

London held its top position in the analysis of 50 major European economic cities, even increasing its lead over Paris in second place, while the rest of the UK cities included featured in the top 20.

 

http://www.cityam.com/274856/london-has-been-named-top-european-economic-city-making-uk?utm_content=bufferb4a90&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Steven said:

1. Canada signs a trade deal whilst outside the EU
2. Canada's economy shrinks
3. EU's economy grows faster than at any time since 2009

Given the above is it better to be in the EU or sign a trade deal with the EU. You decide.

The might be the single piece of the most short term thinking I have ever seen in one post. This is a decision that will last for decades, no one is seriously going to reconsider it on two quarters of growth.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Steven said:

1. Canada signs a trade deal whilst outside the EU
2. Canada's economy shrinks
3. EU's economy grows faster than at any time since 2009

Given the above is it better to be in the EU or sign a trade deal with the EU. You decide.

You just disparaged a FTA with Canada for us but are now saying it's improved growth in the EU? Which is it? 

[Steven]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

You just disparaged a FTA with Canada for us but are now saying it's improved growth in the EU? Which is it? 

It is you who is making the link. Moreover if what you say is true then the UK cannot afford to sign a trade deal with the EU.

[Steven]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

The might be the single piece of the most short term thinking I have ever seen in one post. This is a decision that will last for decades, no one is seriously going to reconsider it on two quarters of growth.

Only matched by the unfounded optimism of your own.

[Kopfkino]

11 minutes ago, MattP said:

I'd much prefer to see higher tax free allowances than any sort of UBI, work has always been the way to take people out of poverty and letting people as much of their own earned money as possible should be a desire of any government that values it's population.

 

As I said to Toddy though, the problem is the highest parts of the welfare bill are pensions followed by housing and disability benefit, no UBI I've seen would get anywhere near the figures a lot of people with those currently claim.

 

But that's of zero use to the many millions who earn below the tax allowance currently. Increasing tax-free allowances doesn't help drag them out of poverty, it's a giveaway to middle income earners. Whereas a direct transfer  that and a basic income has other benefits such as increasing entrepreneurship and enabling people to find employment that is more productive. It might even reduce business costs because it acts as a minimum wage meaning you don't have to impose a minimum wage on business (can argue either way that it will raise wages or reduce them). 

 

Well 220 a week is above the state pension so it deals with that issue and actually you'd be able to claw more back than you can with the basic state pension as is now. The average housing benefit is £95 a week so I don't see an issue there. Disability add-ons might well pose more of an issue.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Steven said:

Only matched by the unfounded optimism of your own.

We already have numerous countries that have signalled a desire to do a trade deal with us, we have last week managed to get the European Union to do something that you said was impossible, vote to move onto talking about trade whilst the financial settlement is still in the negotiating process. Despite Brexit unemployment still keeps getting lower, investment has remained stable and the talk of emergency budgets etc predicted in the immediate aftermath of the vote have gone south.

 

If you will remove your head from the Guardian you will actually see some optimism, the problem is you don't want to do so.

Edited 31 October 2017 by MattP

[Strokes]

16 minutes ago, Steven said:

1. Canada signs a trade deal whilst outside the EU
2. Canada's economy shrinks
3. EU's economy grows faster than at any time since 2009

Given the above is it better to be in the EU or sign a trade deal with the EU. You decide.

Are you joining me in team Hard Brexit?

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, KingGTF said:

 

But that's of zero use to the many millions who earn below the tax allowance currently. Increasing tax-free allowances doesn't help drag them out of poverty, it's a giveaway to middle income earners. Whereas a direct transfer  that and a basic income has other benefits such as increasing entrepreneurship and enabling people to find employment that is more productive. It might even reduce business costs because it acts as a minimum wage meaning you don't have to impose a minimum wage on business (can argue either way that it will raise wages or reduce them). 

 

Well 220 a week is above the state pension so it deals with that issue and actually you'd be able to claw more back than you can with the basic state pension as is now. The average housing benefit is £95 a week so I don't see an issue there. Disability add-ons might well pose more of an issue.

It might go some way to doing that, it could also go the other way though and see people taking less work and it having a negative effect on the overall take take.

 

The problem I have with the idea it will create increasing entrepreneurship is that the money we are talking about probably isn't going to be anywhere near enough, for that to happen you probably would need the sort of funding they are trying in the Finland experiment.

 

I have no idea the housing benefit was that low mind, we must have an absolutely staggering amount of people claiming it.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, KingGTF said:

 

But that's of zero use to the many millions who earn below the tax allowance currently. Increasing tax-free allowances doesn't help drag them out of poverty, it's a giveaway to middle income earners. Whereas a direct transfer  that and a basic income has other benefits such as increasing entrepreneurship and enabling people to find employment that is more productive. It might even reduce business costs because it acts as a minimum wage meaning you don't have to impose a minimum wage on business (can argue either way that it will raise wages or reduce them). 

 

Well 220 a week is above the state pension so it deals with that issue and actually you'd be able to claw more back than you can with the basic state pension as is now. The average housing benefit is £95 a week so I don't see an issue there. Disability add-ons might well pose more of an issue.

If people can survive on what they are getting from the govt, they're less likely to get out of bed for a pittance.

 

Also the cost of living includes more than just housing costs.

 

I'm 52, if the govt gave me enough to live on I'd retire , maybe I'd do a few cash jobs to pay for my holidays but that'd be it. I'd pay no or virtually no income tax, I'd be driving less so I'd be paying less petrol tax and I'd be spending less so I'd be paying less VAT. Not everyone would be the same as me I admit but there'd be enough to make a hole in the country's finances.

 

 

[Kopfkino]

If anyone is actually interested in UBI or negative income tax then give this and the links at the bottom a scan http://www.scottsantens.com/negative-income-tax-nit-and-unconditional-basic-income-ubi-what-makes-them-the-same-and-what-makes-them-different. The Guardian article isn't actually particularly useful, as with anything that Aditya bloke writes. 

 

I've no idea if it can work, I'm sceptical but hopeful it can solve a few problems. When automation is an actual problem, it might very well be the only way. Tax property rights and carbon to pay for it. 

I do kind of agree with Ed Conway in The Times, it's a great quick-fix solution on paper particularly in the absence of a welfare state but not actually useful when put to work in complex societies.