Guest MattP Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 1 minute ago, toddybad said: Firstly the more educated the person the more likely they were to vote labour I believed? Secondly, with education cuts it's unlikely they'll be enough bright people left to vote tory if your theory holds true Of course, we define "educated" as those who have been to University (quite amazing given some of the drips I've encountered coming out of them) and younger you are the more likely to vote Labour - 50% of young people go now, back in the day it was barely over 10%. Quite easy to understand really that.
Webbo Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 Just now, toddybad said: You're just a rabid fundamentalist though. Even you must realise you're miles away from the centre on this one? So?
Alf Bentley Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 5 minutes ago, Webbo said: As I understand it all those other countries have agreed to continue with those agreements post Brexit. Any source for that info? I'm not doubting that you've heard it, just curious as to how reliable the info is. I presume the majority of those 750 EU agreements must be sectoral or covering particular policy areas? The EU seems to have completed about 30-odd trade agreements with third countries, though about 50 more are partly in place and 20 more under negotiation: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_in-place
Webbo Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 13 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Any source for that info? I'm not doubting that you've heard it, just curious as to how reliable the info is. I presume the majority of those 750 EU agreements must be sectoral or covering particular policy areas? The EU seems to have completed about 30-odd trade agreements with third countries, though about 50 more are partly in place and 20 more under negotiation: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_in-place I read it somewhere before Christmas. Why wouldn't any country want a trade deal with a big consumer society like ours?
Guest Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 About sums up the state of play (written by a spectator correspondent) The Tories are ready to leap into the abyss to get rid of Theresa May https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/tories-abyss-theresa-may-leadership-contest?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Guest Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Any source for that info? I'm not doubting that you've heard it, just curious as to how reliable the info is. I presume the majority of those 750 EU agreements must be sectoral or covering particular policy areas? The EU seems to have completed about 30-odd trade agreements with third countries, though about 50 more are partly in place and 20 more under negotiation: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_in-place The info isn't at all reliable.
Alf Bentley Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 6 minutes ago, Webbo said: I read it somewhere before Christmas. Why wouldn't any country want a trade deal with a big consumer society like ours? I'm sure many countries would want a trade deal with the UK, though whether terms could be agreed would be a different matter. But the USA and EU are the two biggest consumer societies in the world and don't have a trade agreement with one another. Before you blame EU bureaucracy for that, it seems that the USA only has 14 trade agreements (which Trump is seeking to renegotiate): http://fortune.com/2017/03/24/trump-executive-order-trade-deal/ I'd be interested if you, @toddybad or anyone else find sources for this info about the replication of existing agreements. Likewise, I'll post if I see any credible sources. I know that some countries (USA, India etc.) have expressed a willingness to sign new deals, though whether terms acceptable to them and us could be agreed is another matter.
Webbo Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: I'm sure many countries would want a trade deal with the UK, though whether terms could be agreed would be a different matter. But the USA and EU are the two biggest consumer societies in the world and don't have a trade agreement with one another. Before you blame EU bureaucracy for that, it seems that the USA only has 14 trade agreements (which Trump is seeking to renegotiate): http://fortune.com/2017/03/24/trump-executive-order-trade-deal/ I'd be interested if you, @toddybad or anyone else find sources for this info about the replication of existing agreements. Likewise, I'll post if I see any credible sources. I know that some countries (USA, India etc.) have expressed a willingness to sign new deals, though whether terms acceptable to them and us could be agreed is another matter. They would just be carrying on as before, why wouldn't they agree? I can't bothered to look for sources, people can make their own mind up.
Strokes Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 27 minutes ago, toddybad said: About sums up the state of play (written by a spectator correspondent) The Tories are ready to leap into the abyss to get rid of Theresa May https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/tories-abyss-theresa-may-leadership-contest?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard Yes!
Buce Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: I'm sure many countries would want a trade deal with the UK, though whether terms could be agreed would be a different matter. But the USA and EU are the two biggest consumer societies in the world and don't have a trade agreement with one another. Before you blame EU bureaucracy for that, it seems that the USA only has 14 trade agreements (which Trump is seeking to renegotiate): http://fortune.com/2017/03/24/trump-executive-order-trade-deal/ I'd be interested if you, @toddybad or anyone else find sources for this info about the replication of existing agreements. Likewise, I'll post if I see any credible sources. I know that some countries (USA, India etc.) have expressed a willingness to sign new deals, though whether terms acceptable to them and us could be agreed is another matter. I’m on my phone and the site isn’t mobile friendy, Alf, but this may deal with it. http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/international-trade-committee/news-parliament-2017/uk-trade-agrrements-brexit-evidence1-17-19/ https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-wants-to-copy-and-paste-eu-trade-deals-after-brexit/ Edited 29 January 2018 by Buce 1
Guest Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 25 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: I'm sure many countries would want a trade deal with the UK, though whether terms could be agreed would be a different matter. But the USA and EU are the two biggest consumer societies in the world and don't have a trade agreement with one another. Before you blame EU bureaucracy for that, it seems that the USA only has 14 trade agreements (which Trump is seeking to renegotiate): http://fortune.com/2017/03/24/trump-executive-order-trade-deal/ I'd be interested if you, @toddybad or anyone else find sources for this info about the replication of existing agreements. Likewise, I'll post if I see any credible sources. I know that some countries (USA, India etc.) have expressed a willingness to sign new deals, though whether terms acceptable to them and us could be agreed is another matter. The EU were talking about replication earlier this week saying that they could help the UK discuss this with partners and expressing surprise that the UK team hadn't even mentioned the idea of replicating existing deals.
Alf Bentley Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 6 minutes ago, Webbo said: They would just be carrying on as before, why wouldn't they agree? I haven't got time to listen to much of @Buce's link just now, but the bit from 10:17 to 10:21 is certainly relevant: A country that signed a deal with the EU because it boosted important trade relations with, say, France, might not agree the same terms with the UK alone, if it didn't perceive trade benefits accruing. In some cases, there would be a clear benefit for the other nation. The Tory, Nigel Evans MP, correctly quotes Canada as a nation that would mainly be interested in trade with the UK....might not apply to many of the others, though. There'll also be a different balance of power. Some Commonwealth countries (e.g. Ghana) might have significant trade with the UK and be happy to replicate - or even accept terms more generous to the UK. On the other hand, some of the bigger non-EU trading nations (S. Korea, Ukraine, Turkey) might have signed up with the EU mainly to get deals with Germany - or might be strong rivals in particular sectors (Switzerland re. finance, Norway re. oil).
Alf Bentley Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 21 minutes ago, toddybad said: The EU were talking about replication earlier this week saying that they could help the UK discuss this with partners and expressing surprise that the UK team hadn't even mentioned the idea of replicating existing deals. Regardless of the politics of this, I seriously hope that the govt isn't being as massively incompetent as seems to be the case. If what you say is true, that's very worrying. If we have the transition period, that allows more time to negotiate such replicated (or amended) deals - but not if the Hard Brexiteers get their way and drive us over the cliff. Hopefully, though, there isn't a parliamentary majority for such recklessness, even if the Hard Brexit lot dump May and replace her with a true believer.... 1
Rogstanley Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 Tory government to spend an extra £3.7bn reviewing every single disability claim because they made such a horrible mess of it the first time. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42862904 A leaner, more efficient state in action there.
Buce Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said: Any source for that info? I'm not doubting that you've heard it, just curious as to how reliable the info is. I presume the majority of those 750 EU agreements must be sectoral or covering particular policy areas? The EU seems to have completed about 30-odd trade agreements with third countries, though about 50 more are partly in place and 20 more under negotiation: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_in-place There was no such agreement as recently as December 26th, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/warnings-of-post-brexit-price-rises-unless-uk-can-copy-eu-trade-deals 1
Guest Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 18 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: Tory government to spend an extra £3.7bn reviewing every single disability claim because they made such a horrible mess of it the first time. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42862904 A leaner, more efficient state in action there. And only through force after being found to be "blatantly discriminatory".
Alf Bentley Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 46 minutes ago, Buce said: There was no such agreement as recently as December 26th, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/warnings-of-post-brexit-price-rises-unless-uk-can-copy-eu-trade-deals That article refers to existing EU trade deals ceasing to cover the UK from March 2019. But would that still apply if an EU/UK transition deal is agreed or would we then be covered until December 2020? Maybe it would depend on the terms of the EU/UK transition deal signed (hopefully) in 2 months' time? Or would the EU - or UK - need to negotiate that with the third countries? It would be a bit odd if, from March 2019 to Dec 2020, we were still in the Single Market and effectively near-members of the EU yet were excluded from external EU trade agreements. This issue isn't as important as what happens to UK/EU trading terms - and, in the longer-term, what happens to UK trade with major powers like USA, China & India. But it does have the potential to do some damage in particular sectors. Your article mentions the large scale of clothing imports from Turkey and fish imports from Norway. We wouldn't have much trade with some of the countries concerned but what about, say, financial services with Switzerland, trade in electronic consumer goods/components with South Korea, exports of manufactured goods to Canada and Commonwealth countries in Africa (and food imports in return). Then there's Japan, with which the EU has a trade deal pending - British businesses could be competing for Japanese trade while having to pay/charge tariffs that didn't apply to EU competitors. Apart from the car industry, Japan imports a lot of pharmaceuticals/medical equipment from Europe, a sector that is important to the UK..... None of that would destroy the economy from March 2019, but could damage trade/business and increase consumer prices, reducing living standards.
Guest Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: That article refers to existing EU trade deals ceasing to cover the UK from March 2019. But would that still apply if an EU/UK transition deal is agreed or would we then be covered until December 2020? Maybe it would depend on the terms of the EU/UK transition deal signed (hopefully) in 2 months' time? Or would the EU - or UK - need to negotiate that with the third countries? It would be a bit odd if, from March 2019 to Dec 2020, we were still in the Single Market and effectively near-members of the EU yet were excluded from external EU trade agreements. This issue isn't as important as what happens to UK/EU trading terms - and, in the longer-term, what happens to UK trade with major powers like USA, China & India. But it does have the potential to do some damage in particular sectors. Your article mentions the large scale of clothing imports from Turkey and fish imports from Norway. We wouldn't have much trade with some of the countries concerned but what about, say, financial services with Switzerland, trade in electronic consumer goods/components with South Korea, exports of manufactured goods to Canada and Commonwealth countries in Africa (and food imports in return). Then there's Japan, with which the EU has a trade deal pending - British businesses could be competing for Japanese trade while having to pay/charge tariffs that didn't apply to EU competitors. Apart from the car industry, Japan imports a lot of pharmaceuticals/medical equipment from Europe, a sector that is important to the UK..... None of that would destroy the economy from March 2019, but could damage trade/business and increase consumer prices, reducing living standards. What makes you think a transition deal would be agreed in two months? We haven't even finished agreeing the stuff from round one - we've just made what the EU called sufficient progress on the round one issues. Edited 29 January 2018 by Guest
Alf Bentley Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, toddybad said: What makes you think a transition deal would be agreed in two months? We haven't even finished agreeing the stuff from round one - we've just made what the EU called satisfactory progress on the round one issues. I'm not assuming that will be achieved, Toddy, but that is the timetable set, isn't it? Negotiations on transition deal starting this week for completion by March, then move on to future EU/UK trade deal. If we don't do a transition deal on time, then that will further eat into the time available to negotiate an EU/UK trade/future relationship deal - and there's not much more than 6-9 months available for that already, is there? I think any transition agreement is supposed to go before the European Council and Parliament in March - and the Council only meets every 2-3 months, I think, so if there's no transition deal done by March, that's seriously bad news. I certainly wouldn't rule that out, though, given the apparent incompetence of this govt and the possibility that the governing party might descend into a chaotic civil war at any minute. Edited 29 January 2018 by Alf Bentley
Guest Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 12 minutes ago, Strokes said: No deal is alive☠️ It isn't as it wouldn't pass parliament.
Strokes Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 The trade negotiations........ ........time is running out 1
Strokes Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 Just now, toddybad said: It isn't as it wouldn't pass parliament. It doesn’t need too, if the EU and we can’t agree. What happens in March?
Guest MattP Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 Just now, toddybad said: It isn't as it wouldn't pass parliament. I can forsee a scenario where the 100 or so moderate Labour politicians back a Conservative softer Brexit to see off a "no deal" that some Tory backbenchers want.
Guest MattP Posted 29 January 2018 Posted 29 January 2018 On the talk of time. How absurd is it that after hearing Donald Tusk 3-4 last year coming to his little box to tell us "the clock is ticking" we now sit here doing absolutely nothing? Farcical.
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