Beat the Bookie

[Tempwan Yierban]

Hi All,

Wanted to start a thread not for tips as such - but for anyone to be able to post strategies/approaches to beat the bookie.

Any trends, and staking plans, any systems, any potential 101% markets ie guaranteed profit dutching, any free bets opportunities.

I've got a couple of things to contribute here, which I'll add to.

1) Spotting overpriced selections early and making money by backing then laying market movers.

2) As above but in-play on tournaments with mass (ie non-expert) appeal. (Masters is one of the best)

3) Guaranteed profits dutching - I'm trialling this on paper currently - and they are often spotted by others, but I'll explain more in due course.

Anyone interested, please do stay tuned.

I've started this up so I can learn a bit more - and if we all can, then perhaps together we can beat the bookie.

Don't want it to be a stuffy or patronising sort of thread, all welcome, from those betting £100's to those betting 50p on a footie accumulator once a week to those who don't bet at all, but are just interested.

There are no stupid questions so also please use this to ask anything about betting and I'll bet someone here will have the answer.

My first question then - anyone ever trialled a SAW (Stop At a Winner) system? Do you also back the favourite, doubling stake each time? 2nd fav? What were your results?

Cheers - and good luck.

[ousefox]

I'd like to know how matched betting works in the simplest possible way.. Whenever someone mentions it, I end up having to read paragraphs and paragraphs and by the time I've done that I can't be arsed to do it, so...

[Guest MattP]

Being a good tipster is easy, having the discipline to control your bank is the hardest thing.

I'm a huge advocate of level stakes betting, all of my successful periods of betting have involved me doing it, I usually go at about 10% of my bank which is far too high but keeps me interested.

My main issue is I get drunk and go all in on something daft.

To any football punters, hit singles and doubles instead of accies, there is a big reason bookies used to only accept minimum trebles.

[Tempwan Yierban]

I'd like to know how matched betting works in the simplest possible way.. Whenever someone mentions it, I end up having to read paragraphs and paragraphs and by the time I've done that I can't be arsed to do it, so...

I'll try to keep this brief to keep you interested, let me know if it makes sense or if you need more detail.

Firstly, exchanges are the alternative to traditional betting ie the alternative to going to a bookmaker and sticking £5 to win at fixed odds of say 4/1.

In an exchange situation generally you are placing your bet with another normal person like yourself. Someone is willing to lay the bet you want to make.

Lets say you really think Leicester will win tomorrow and are happy to take evens - and I am equally convinced Leicester will not win, I will choose to match your bet, or 'lay' your bet.

If Leicester win, money is transferred from my account to yours. If Leicester do not want, I keep your stake.

What confuses some people is that betfair (and other exchanges) use decimal odds, since they can be more precise whilst remaining 'simple' numbers. To convert (I think in fractional odds), 5.00 is 4/1. 8.00 is 7/1. Just subtract one and it's that number to 1.

Exchanges offered the first real opportunity for normal folk like you or I to 'lay' a selection. It was almost the birthplace (alongwith fast internet connections) of 'in play' betting.

Does that make sense?

[DorsetFox9]

my tip: Singles only. maybe the odd double.

[Tempwan Yierban]

Being a good tipster is easy, having the discipline to control your bank is the hardest thing.

I'm a huge advocate of level stakes betting, all of my successful periods of betting have involved me doing it, I usually go at about 10% of my bank which is far too high but keeps me interested.

My main issue is I get drunk and go all in on something daft.

To any football punters, hit singles and doubles instead of accies, there is a big reason bookies used to only accept minimum trebles.

I have a staking plan and I have never got carried away to date, which can be a blessing and a curse. If you do get carried away, make sure its a winner!

I will explain my staking plan if anyone is interested although really everyone has to have their own - a pts system is about the best.

[Tempwan Yierban]

Here's a quick gem - doesn't always work but I swear by it.

If a bookie offers 'MONEY BACK IF SECOND TO....'

They think they know something about that horse. It won't win. These horses are usually super-fancied

If you can afford to do so, lay it on betfair.

(Often in these cases one of the smaller bookies might also do a priceboost so you can often back at 6/4 and lay at evens on betfair)

[ScouseFox]

Betfair is easily the best and most fun way to bet. So often can you make profit without ever actually choosing a winning selection.

Eg. If you'd backed Justin Rose for The Masters @ 22s or so the other day, you could've laid him at 12s or so after 2 holes (with 70 still to play) and probably be in profit for the week no matter what.

Only problem is I accidentally closed my Betfair account the other day. They joined up with BlueSQ and my BlueSQ account was transferred to Betfair. From what I understood (and what the email said) I then had 2 Betfair accounts, so I volunteered to close the BlueSQ one because I'd only ever used it for a free bet once about a year back. I then got an email saying I'd closed my account, but they'd already joined the two accounts together, so they'd "self-excluded" my only account. Still waiting for them to get back to me as to whether it can be reactivated, because industry bookies have worse odds, worse customer service and no option to lay.

It was my own fault for being a bit daft really, but it was quite confusing .

[whoareyaaa]

Look for 2 bookies that match your stake with a free £X bet.

Find a sports match that can only have 2 outcomes... Snooker, Tennis theres a few more.

with one bookie bet the full stake on one of the teams, with the other bookie bet on the opposition.

Free money, obviously this is limited to how many times you could do it but with a few mates you can swindle them with quite a bit.

[Tempwan Yierban]

Eg. If you'd backed Justin Rose for The Masters @ 22s or so the other day, you could've laid him at 12s or so after 2 holes (with 70 still to play) and probably be in profit for the week no matter what.

Was going to mention this earlier. Back a strong starter. Westwood, Rose, Scott all tend to be good bets. Tend to then be shorter after a good start, so lay.

Or, watch the coverage on Sky, wait for the commentators to say 'that was a great putt, x is really on the march now' or 'so and so is really keen, I know he'd love to win here and he certainly has the game'. All the idiots watching will back these golfers, usually forcing betfair odds below traditional bookie odds. Open betfair app and bet365 app and arb to your hearts' content.

Last year I made a fortune on the Masters, and I only had about £12 on Bubba Watson. I had it by the final day that I was in profit is any of the leading 6 won. I just really wish Westwood had got his putting together because I stood to make an absolute fortune on him. His driving and short game was right on the money.

Why have I not backed him this year?

EDIT Westwood double-bogeyed the first. Actually probably pushed his odds RIGHT up on betfair. If you like Westwood, now is the time to pile in. (you can probably lay it off later if he recovers, which I'm sure he will providing he isn't putting like he sometimes does in which case forget him altogether)

[whoareyaaa]

Another way I kill the bookies sometimes is look for teams on bad runs in football i.e 4/5 straight losses.

Start with what ever you feel comfortable with say £20 bet on the team to win if they lose then double your stake the next time they play, keep doing this and doubling the bet each time until they finally win.

Sometimes you will make a lot of money because the team in question will end up beating a top side and the odds will be good.

[duk3nuk3m]

Another way I kill the bookies sometimes is look for teams on bad runs in football i.e 4/5 straight losses.

Start with what ever you feel comfortable with say £20 bet on the team to win if they lose then double your stake the next time they play, keep doing this and doubling the bet each time until they finally win.

Sometimes you will make a lot of money because the team in question will end up beating a top side and the odds will be good.

Unless you've backed Reading, which will mean you're over £2500 down

[whoareyaaa]

Unless you've backed Reading, which will mean you're over £2500 down

yeah usually stay away from bottom of the league teams across all divisions a bit of common sense is needed at times and why its a good idea to start when there on a run of 4/5/6 losses

you can use this system on almost anything if you've got enough money and go in at the right time.

[ScouseFox]

Was going to mention this earlier. Back a strong starter. Westwood, Rose, Scott all tend to be good bets. Tend to then be shorter after a good start, so lay.

Or, watch the coverage on Sky, wait for the commentators to say 'that was a great putt, x is really on the march now' or 'so and so is really keen, I know he'd love to win here and he certainly has the game'. All the idiots watching will back these golfers, usually forcing betfair odds below traditional bookie odds. Open betfair app and bet365 app and arb to your hearts' content.

Last year I made a fortune on the Masters, and I only had about £12 on Bubba Watson. I had it by the final day that I was in profit is any of the leading 6 won. I just really wish Westwood had got his putting together because I stood to make an absolute fortune on him. His driving and short game was right on the money.

Why have I not backed him this year?

EDIT Westwood double-bogeyed the first. Actually probably pushed his odds RIGHT up on betfair. If you like Westwood, now is the time to pile in. (you can probably lay it off later if he recovers, which I'm sure he will providing he isn't putting like he sometimes does in which case forget him altogether)

Westwood hit 70s on Betfair after his first hole nightmare. Into 40s now.

[Tempwan Yierban]

Westwood hit 70s on Betfair after his first hole nightmare. Into 40s now.

There we go. Point made. You can use that to make money on a good day, or have a free bet otherwise.

Simple maths example.

Bet 4 quid at 70s.

Lay 7 quid at 40s.

You've made £3quid. No risk. But no further reward.

Bet 5 quid at 70s

Lay 5 quid at 40s

You've got your money back, but effectively have £5 worth of bet at the difference of 30s.

[ScouseFox]

There we go. Point made. You can use that to make money on a good day, or have a free bet otherwise.

Simple maths example.

Bet 4 quid at 70s.

Lay 7 quid at 40s.

You've made £3quid. No risk. But no further reward.

Bet 5 quid at 70s

Lay 5 quid at 40s

You've got your money back, but effectively have £5 worth of bet at the difference of 30s.

Yep, you can just back and lay at lower odds all day if you know what you're doing, you've got a decent starting pot and you've got the time.

Westwood can be laid @ 32s now he's back to level par for the day. So already, like you say, if you'd had a quick fiver on @ 70s, you could lay a fiver @ 32s and you've earnt yourself what is basically a free five quid bet that could net you a lovely profit.

[Ashley]

At the minute my roll is £250.00. I use 5% Stakes for a bet. Sometimes 10% stakes and the odd special one.

Keeping discipline is major key. Bet at 5, 10% of your roll if you have one the obviously as it gets bigger bet more if you can afford too. I get to a certain mark then bank cash then keep going.

[AS78UK]

Look for 2 bookies that match your stake with a free £X bet.

Find a sports match that can only have 2 outcomes... Snooker, Tennis theres a few more.

with one bookie bet the full stake on one of the teams, with the other bookie bet on the opposition.

Free money, obviously this is limited to how many times you could do it but with a few mates you can swindle them with quite a bit.

Once in a while Bet365 offer a free loosing inplay bet refund, equal to your biggest prematch bet football bet. If your work with someone with a different IP address to yourself, then between the two off you can make a tidy guaranteed profit.

I have done this now with a friend for an average profit each of £35. You essentially need to decide the most profitable way to bet your pre-match and inplay bets before hand. But after that your in the money. Will drop a note on here next time it comes up.

[Ashley]

Once in a while Bet365 offer a free loosing inplay bet refund, equal to your biggest prematch bet football bet. If your work with someone with a different IP address to yourself, then between the two off you can make a tidy guaranteed profit.

I have done this now with a friend for an average profit each of £35. You essentially need to decide the most profitable way to bet your pre-match and inplay bets before hand. But after that your in the money. Will drop a note on here next time it comes up.

So basically your arbing.

[Webbo]

I read about a system a few years ago. Basically you bet £50 to win £100 each race. You pick the top 3 rated horses on the raceform ratings in whatever paper you buy. You convert the odds to a percentage and add those odds together. If the percentage comes to 50% or less you back all 3 horses, if it's more than 50% you remove the horse with the highest percentage/shortest odds and back the other 2 for the £ equivalent of the percentage i.e. if 1 horse has 20% odds you put £20 on it and if horse 2 has a percentage of 12% you put £12 on.

I did try this virtually using an old newspaper and I would have made a profit but I've never tried it in reality as I didn't have the bankroll and I'm not much of a risk taker.

[Ashley]

Anyone had much look using the martingale technique?

[Jordan]

Anyone had much look using the martingale technique?

Yeah, bookies and casinos have done really well with that system.

[foxfanazer]

Not a system as such but one of my mates puts £50 on two random games for BTTS

Does quite well out of it to be honest

[Ric Flair]

Betfair is easily the best and most fun way to bet. So often can you make profit without ever actually choosing a winning selection.

Eg. If you'd backed Justin Rose for The Masters @ 22s or so the other day, you could've laid him at 12s or so after 2 holes (with 70 still to play) and probably be in profit for the week no matter what.

Only problem is I accidentally closed my Betfair account the other day. They joined up with BlueSQ and my BlueSQ account was transferred to Betfair. From what I understood (and what the email said) I then had 2 Betfair accounts, so I volunteered to close the BlueSQ one because I'd only ever used it for a free bet once about a year back. I then got an email saying I'd closed my account, but they'd already joined the two accounts together, so they'd "self-excluded" my only account. Still waiting for them to get back to me as to whether it can be reactivated, because industry bookies have worse odds, worse customer service and no option to lay.

It was my own fault for being a bit daft really, but it was quite confusing .

The guaranteed profit you'd make there though isn't as much as you might think.

Say you staked £10 on Rose at 22/1 you stand to get back £230 if it wins. If you then decide to lay Rose at 12s you could only turn that in to about £20 profit before you were risking a loss. Not bad for a few hours work on a golfer who isn't at the top of the leaderboard and you've doubled your money but i've been caught out on the back and lay a few times. It's worth learning.

[Ric Flair]

Me, my ex birds dad, her uncle and my mate all decided to use the dawson system (double up your stake until you get a winner) on no goalscorer during the 2006 World Cup. We all made a fair amount of money (couple of grand each) it was stressful though and getting the bets on in time etc started to prove difficult when you had £750-1500) going on a result in a bookies. It's easier to do online these days but also you'll get found out by the bookies and possibly restricted bets which would be a sickener if you've lost a few on the spin and are about to pull the trigger.

What was even more frustrating about this system we did was we stopped after the group stages and had we carried on and been able to get the bets on we'd have walked away with over £50,000 between us. We decided to stop after the group stages because games had started being played at the same time so we had to double stakes on 2 seperate bets which meant if they lost then our stakes were increasing even more rapidly and we feared we could be out of dough when we'd built up a good pot.