The Good News thread, local jobs, economy etc

[Dr The Singh]

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-28946521

 

Webbo, is this article about you, I expected you to be alot older, that's all!

[Webbo]

Webbo, is this article about you, I expected you to be alot older, that's all!

You're just jealous because you've seen the woman I'm banging. 

[rico]

Not good news,Phones 4U gone into administration

 

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Phones-4U-adminstrators/story-22926574-detail/story.html

[Guest MattP]

Number of people claiming JSA drops below 1million. A quite phenomenal effort given it was over 1.6million in August 2011.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/record-drop-in-unemployment-and-more-people-in-private-sector-jobs

 

 

Source: Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Iain Duncan Smith said:

Creating jobs is central to building a stronger, more resilient and stable economy. With millions more people in private sector employment under this government, it is clear that our long-term economic plan is helping Britain to recover following one of the deepest recessions in living memory.

All of our reforms are focused on helping people off benefits and into work – giving people the peace of mind and security that comes with a steady income. With the number of people claiming the main unemployment benefit down below 1 million for the first time in 6 years, we are helping people to break free from welfare dependency, look after themselves and their families, and play their part in getting our country back to work.

Today’s figures also show a continued growth in private sector employment – up by almost 800,000 in the last year alone. Compared to 2010 there are now over 2.16 million more people in private sector jobs – showing that the government’s long-term economic plan to create jobs by backing businesses is working.

Unemployment saw the largest annual fall in 26 years, dropping by 468,000, which brings the unemployment rate to a new 6-year low of 6.2%. The employment rate, at 73%, is also back up to the level seen before the recession with 30.61 million people in work.

The number claiming (JSA) has been falling for the last 22 months – with 423,600 fewer claimants than a year ago – and is now below 1 million for the first time since 2008.

Young people saw the largest annual fall in unemployment since records began in 1984 – falling by 213,000 on the year – and has been dropping for the last year. There are now fewer young people claiming the main unemployment benefit (JSA) than just before the recession – having dropped by 133,200 in the past year and for 33 months in a row.

Schemes like the government’s Work Programme have contributed to the largest drop in long-term unemployment since 1998 – falling by 175,000 on the year.

 

Those bloody Tories, gettting people off the dole, finding people jobs etc.

Edited 17 September 2014 by MattP

[ADK]

It's massively exaggerated with massaged statistics though. I prefer to look at productivity as it's harder to fiddle and can give a better picture of what's really happening.

[Guest MattP]

It's massively exaggerated with massaged statistics though. I prefer to look at productivity as it's harder to fiddle and can give a better picture of what's really happening.

 

If that's the case why didn't they fiddle the figures when they looked terrible a couple of years ago?

[ADK]

If that's the case why didn't they fiddle the figures when they looked terrible a couple of years ago?

 

Because a couple of years ago they knew the election was in a couple of years.

[Guest MattP]

Because a couple of years ago they knew the election was in a couple of years.

 

So why doesn't everyone do this before every election then?

[ADK]

So why doesn't everyone do this before every election then?

 

Doesn't everyone fiddle some stat or another? The Tories have made welfare and employment a big issue so they are trying everything to conjure up the right picture.

[Guest MattP]

Doesn't everyone fiddle some stat or another? The Tories have made welfare and employment a big issue so they are trying everything to conjure up the right picture.

Not that I'm aware of, I don't think it would be long until we had whistleblowers in the public sector if the Tories were fiddling the statistics.

The simple explanation could be that more people have found work, which makes sense given the these figures go alongside a severe rise in employment over the last year or so.

It never fails to amaze me how some folk will believe or disbelieve the same organisations statistics based on their own political prejudice.

[ADK]

Not that I'm aware of, I don't think it would be long until we had whistleblowers in the public sector if the Tories were fiddling the statistics.

The simple explanation could be that more people have found work, which makes sense given the these figures go alongside a severe rise in employment over the last year or so.

It never fails to amaze me how some folk will believe or disbelieve the same organisations statistics based on their own political prejudice.

 

That could be levelled at anyone including you. I don't want to argue against good news though. I hope it's genuine although I have my doubts.

[Webbo]

It's massively exaggerated with massaged statistics though. I prefer to look at productivity as it's harder to fiddle and can give a better picture of what's really happening.

Surely the only way productivity will go up is if you make the same amount with less people?

[ADK]

Surely the only way productivity will go up is if you make the same amount with less people?

 

Well productivity is productivity. Yes you will use less people to make the same amount.

[Webbo]

Well productivity is productivity. Yes you will use less people to make the same amount.

So for productivity to go up unemployment would have to go up, so how can productivity prove that the unemployment figures are fiddled?

[ADK]

So for productivity to go up unemployment would have to go up, so how can productivity prove that the unemployment figures are fiddled?

 

I see what you mean.

 

I'm talking about productivity per capita though, so simply getting one lot of the population to do more work whilst leaving the rest unemployed wouldn't change the figures.

 

Essentially if we have more people working but productivity hasn't increased then we aren't actually producing any more work.

[Alf Bentley]

Surely the only way productivity will go up is if you make the same amount with less people?

 

....Or make a larger amount with the same people

....Or increase the number of people employed, but increase output per head even more

(easier to refer to employment figures rather than unemployment, as the latter will be affected by net migration (immigration-emigration))

 

....Or we could increase productivity by moving our output upmarket, so as to produce higher-value goods/services, with the same number of people.

What I suspect we're doing is the diametrical opposite of that: increasing employment levels, but not increasing productivity because too many of the new jobs are low-paid jobs producing low-value goods/services!

 

I see what you mean.

 

I'm talking about productivity per capita though, so simply getting one lot of the population to do more work whilst leaving the rest unemployed wouldn't change the figures.

 

Essentially if we have more people working but productivity hasn't increased then we aren't actually producing any more work.

 

I think most of the fall in unemployment is genuine. Otherwise, there'd be a big difference between the "claimant count" unemployment figure (people signed on) and the main ONS unemployment figures, which are based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - interviews with a balanced sample of the population. I'm sure that the "claimant count" figure is lower than it would otherwise be, due to people having their benefits sanctioned, but the LFS figure is also falling, and that figure couldn't really be massaged.

 

The problem is more the quality of the new jobs - and the pay for new and existing jobs. Rising employment/falling unemployment with stagnant productivity and falling real pay suggests to me that, at the moment, our economy is effectively "succeeding" (in employment terms) by moving downmarket - with proportionately more people in low-paid jobs producing low-value output.....unless employers are taking on loads of people without much work for them to do, which seems unlikely.

 

In theory, as an advanced capitalist nation, we're supposed to be doing the opposite of that: moving upmarket to more high-skilled, high-tech, high-value-added output/employment. Instead, in part we seem to be increasingly becoming a high-employment, low-wage, low-productivity economy. I've not seen any data as to which sectors the new jobs are in, but if they're sectors competing with the developing world, that seems like a recipe for failure....but maybe we're just employing a lot more people in downmarket jobs in the domestic service sector - in shops and take-aways or something?

 

Anyone got any other theories, as it all seems very odd and unhealthy, unless it's a temporary blip before productivity and real pay start soaring again.....?

[Webbo]

Saying we should be a high tech, high wage economy is easier said than done. Government can't create those jobs only create an environment where those types of companies can thrive. That includes tax breaks and lower regulations, the things the Tories are often criticised for. The dumbing down of education in the name of equality hasn't helped either.

 

As for wages, the laws of supply and demand means as employment goes up the supply of workers should shrink forcing up wages. The fact that it isn't can only mean the supply of workers isn't shrinking which suggests that it must be immigrants taking these jobs. That's not a criticism of immigrants just the only explanation I can think of.

Edited 18 September 2014 by Webbo

[Alf Bentley]

The simple explanation could be that more people have found work, which makes sense given the these figures go alongside a severe rise in employment over the last year or so.

It never fails to amaze me how some folk will believe or disbelieve the same organisations statistics based on their own political prejudice.

 

Excellent graph in this link, showing both sets of unemployment figures for the last 20+ years, the "claimant count" and the main one, based on the Labour Force Survey: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29235655

 

The fact that the 2 graph lines have followed the same trajectory since 2008 (and since 1992, in the main) does suggest that the fall in unemployment is genuine, not fiddled figures, whatever the quality of the new jobs.

 

Note re. the main unemployment figures (LFS ones, not claimant count): 

"The unemployment figures are based on the Labour Force Survey, in which the ONS speaks to 60,000 households once a quarter, making it the country's biggest household survey.The ONS is 95% confident that the figure of 2.02 million unemployed is within 77,000 of being accurate either way".

There has been a divergence between the 2 sets of figures....but this has been continuous since 1992 and there hasn't been a sharp divergence since 2010. Could be various reasons for the long-term divergence (more people on disability benefits, people switching jobs more often and not bothering to sign on for a few weeks, anti-benefits stigma, people caring for elderly relatives, cash-rich people taking career breaks etc.). 

 

Saying we should be a high tech, high wage economy is easier said than done. Government can't create those jobs only create an environment where those types of companies can thrive. That includes tax breaks and lower regulations, the things the Tories are often criticised for. The dumbing down of education in the name of equality hasn't helped either.

 

As for wages, the laws of supply and demand means as employment goes up the supply of workers should shrink forcing up wages. The fact that it isn't can only mean the supply of workers isn't shrinking which suggests that it must be immigrants taking these jobs. That's not a criticism of immigrants just the only explanation I can think of.

 

Agree with your first paragraph to some extent, though there are interventionist and not just free-market polices that can help create the sort of environment you mention: infrastructure investment, active industrial policy (the French intervene to help their firms much more than we do, despite EU competition law), more apprenticeship schemes, higher minimum wage, R&D funding etc.

 

But the supply of workers HAS been shrinking, as both sets of unemployment figures show. Immigration explains why the supply of workers hasn't shrunk by MORE, when employment has been rising consistently for 2-3 years, and might be a factor in falling real pay. There could be other explanations, though: investment time-lag (though it's becoming a hell of a long time-lag!), economy moving downmarket to lower-skilled, lower-paid jobs, firms keeping earnings for investment or profits, job insecurity and weak trade unions meaning that workers feel vulnerable and aren't demanding higher pay...

[Guest MattP]

Just getting in before Ken does....

 

http://www.lincolnshireecho.co.uk/Homeless-woman-evicted-30-years-200-bedroom-tax/story-22944602-detail/story.html

[Houdini Logic]

Good news?

[Strokes]

Just getting in before Ken does....

http://www.lincolnshireecho.co.uk/Homeless-woman-evicted-30-years-200-bedroom-tax/story-22944602-detail/story.html

If she is too scared to cook or read, i dont think she should be living in a three bedroom house on her own.

[ADK]

I'd love a crack at being chancellor, unlikely to happen though.

[purpleronnie]

If she is too scared to cook or read, i dont think she should be living in a three bedroom house on her own.

Maybe the other 2 rooms are panic rooms.

[Rincewind]

If she is too scared to cook or read, i dont think she should be living in a three bedroom house on her own.

Its OK I doubt anything I post will be taken seriously or make any difference to anyone's viewpoints.

[MooseBreath]

Lots of low end capacity is flooding into the jobs market at present, these are people who were paid to stay at home and get pissed by labour, but are now having to find work. Hundreds of thousands of them, and they're almost all completely unskilled, so are only going to get low productivity, low paid jobs. This brings both productivity and wage averages down.

Meanwhile a lot of these people have had a 1% pay rise through pension auto-enrolment, which when taken into account alongside wage growth figures means they are actually increasing faster than inflation already. I'd bet a good few Vietnamese dong that salaries over say £25k have been thrashing inflation for the last 18 months or so.

The remaining productivity puzzle is surely due to awful practices in education and welfare giveaways under labour. You tell a whole generation that you'll give them easy good grades for doing pointless education courses and then pay for them to be down the boozer all day everyday, then who the hell is surprised when a lot of them turn out to be pretty unproductive people?