2015 Election season ..........stuff it in here.

[Guest MattP]

At least someone pays attention !

What is Argar like Matt?

 

I've not met him yet but I certainly intend to before May 7th so I'll let you know as soon as I do.

[leicsmac]

Does it really matter? I don't think it does.

 

I've learnt already most economists talk absolute shite, vast majority were predicting triple dip recessions and mass unemployment 3-4 years ago. Go and read some David Blanchflower over the last few years if you want a good laugh. It's look a bigger racket than fortune telling.

 

Wait, so you're saying that economics is largely smoke and mirrors?

 

Whatever happened to trusting big business and the banking fraternity, Matt? Are you veering from the Dark Side?

[Guest MattP]

there are also those with mental conditions that prevent them from getting high paid jobs that require numeracy and reading skills. at one time they could go into engineering shoe hosiery or mining work but those types of jobs are not abundant these days leaving them to fight over Poundshop jobs and stacking shelves. many are in their fifties and employers are reluctant to spend money on training someone that may only a few years of work in them.

 

I'd hazard a guess it's the fact they don't have decent numeracy and reading skills that prevents them getting the high paid jobs rather than the mental condition Ken.

Wait, so you're saying that economics is largely smoke and mirrors?

 

Definitely. You can see that with the predictions over the last 4 years.

[Stadt]

I've not met him yet but I certainly intend to before May 7th so I'll let you know as soon as I do.

Alright cheers, blaby(?) has been a Tory safe seat for years hasn't it?

[leicsmac]

 

Definitely. You can see that with the predictions over the last 4 years.

 

But, but, but...I thought that such institutions were designed and ran with the best interests of humanity and the future in mind, and that we could trust them with our social stability?

[Guest MattP]

Alright cheers, blaby(?) has been a Tory safe seat for years hasn't it?

 

Charnwood

 

Yeah we're as safe as it gets for the Tories I think outside the Home Counties.

But, but, but...I thought that such institutions were designed and ran with the best interests of humanity and the future in mind, and that we could trust them with our social stability?

 

When I have I said this?

[Stadt]

Charnwood

Yeah we're as safe as it gets for the Tories I think outside the Home Counties.

When I have I said this?

I thought I was wrong haha

[Guest MattP]

I thought I was wrong haha

 

Blaby was changed to South Leicestershire in 2010.

[leicsmac]

When I have I said this?

 

Not directed at you personally, but I have heard so much about big business and the banking sector being trustworthy. Mostly from those of a conservative persuasion.

[Guest Kopfkino]

Does it really matter? I don't think it does.

 

I've learnt already most economists talk absolute shite, vast majority were predicting triple dip recessions and mass unemployment 3-4 years ago. Go and read some David Blanchflower over the last few years if you want a good laugh. It's look a bigger racket than fortune telling.

That's unfair. It's not an exact science by any means which makes it difficult for any economist and all they can do is model scenarios to see what might be likely to happen.

The vast majority weren't predicting that, you may have read a few saying that but not the vast majority of economists. It wouldn't make for a interesting story to grab readers if the media published economists saying 'we'll muddle along until 2014 and then things will start to steadily pick up'

[MooseBreath]

" Two-thirds of the 33 economists who responded disagreed or strongly disagreed with the proposition that austerity had been good for the UK."

I'm not mis-representing anything, deliberately or otherwise: that is a direct quote from the article.

Disagree all you like, but don't shoot the messenger.

You're right, the article does say that. It's wrong, of course. I tend to go straight to the actual facts nowadays when I'm reading something on the BBC.

[MooseBreath]

Not directed at you personally, but I have heard so much about big business and the banking sector being trustworthy. Mostly from those of a conservative persuasion.

What have the views of academic economists got to do with big business and the banking sector? Economists are famously terrible at predicting anything.

[Steven]

You got it, Alf, the creators of jobs and wealth are backing the conservatives!

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/apr/01/greece-bailout-deal-eurozone-officials-pmi-growth#block-551bae71e4b0b06b83c400f3

 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/31/wealth-creators-klepto-rewards-bosses

[Jon the Hat]

Not directed at you personally, but I have heard so much about big business and the banking sector being trustworthy. Mostly from those of a conservative persuasion.

 

You are confusing academics and research types with people actually running business.

[Steven]

http://www.theguardian.com/news/reality-check/2015/apr/01/clarify-uk-not-worlds-fastest-growing-major-economy

[Jon the Hat]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/apr/01/greece-bailout-deal-eurozone-officials-pmi-growth#block-551bae71e4b0b06b83c400f3

 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/31/wealth-creators-klepto-rewards-bosses

 

Your point here is presumably that where the customer is disempowered and unable to choose properly between shit service and good service for their money the market fails, and you get terrible situations like this.  Eventually such business will fail. 

 

Obviously you cannot generalise from such business which makes up a tiny proportion of wealth creation.

[Guest MattP]

Not directed at you personally, but I have heard so much about big business and the banking sector being trustworthy. Mostly from those of a conservative persuasion.

 

I really don't see the correlation at all between saying that a lot of economists get things wrong and saying we should listen to business leaders (if I did say that) - for a start the latter should be better informed as they are actually running businesses.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/apr/01/greece-bailout-deal-eurozone-officials-pmi-growth#block-551bae71e4b0b06b83c400f3

 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/31/wealth-creators-klepto-rewards-bosses

http://www.theguardian.com/news/reality-check/2015/apr/01/clarify-uk-not-worlds-fastest-growing-major-economy

 

You do know that other news websites exists other than ones whose purpose it is to try and do down the British economy while their political opponents are in power?

[Sir Fynwy]

Starting to think it'll be better if there is no change in government so that I won't have to listen to every minister moan about the situation they inherited for another 5 years, shut the **** up about what you had and talk about what you did!

[Alf Bentley]

An aside (1) - How do you know they want people to vote Tory? You don't. Some of those businessmen who have signed that letter supported Labour in previous elections, some could be supporting parties such as the Lib Dems or UKIP as well as the Conservatives, warning of the dangers of a Miliband led Labour government to business doesn't automatically assume they want to vote Conservative, I'm quite certain the majority do but it wouldn't be 100%.

 

An aside (2) - They should, and as pointed out by John above Labour needs to actually start telling us whether we should listen to the nasty business people or not, it seems to depend on what they say from day to day when the CEO's and IBS are actually a credible source to listen too.

 

An aside (3) - Every single boss I have ever worked for has always expressed the value of every worker in the company from the boardroom to the shop floor to the cleaner, they are all the wealth and job creators. Every single one.

 

 

(1) I'm in good company interpreting the letter as implied backing for the Tories. The BBC headlined their article "Bosses' letter backing Tories fuels business battle". Admittedly, the Telegraph headline was "100 business chiefs: Labour threatens Britain's recovery" (although the letter itself doesn't even mention Labour, just "a change in course"), but their subheading is "Senior executives [....] hail Conservative economic policies".

 

The letter (abridged) reads: "We believe this Conservative-led government has been good for business.....Cameron and Osborne's [N.B: NOT Clegg/Cable's] flagship policy of progressively lowering Corporation Tax.....has been very important......We believe a change in course will threaten jobs and deter investment....". So, several bits of praise for Tories, no mention of Lib Dems, UKIP or Labour. It would seem a bit bizarre for anyone to have signed a letter repeatedly praising the Tories and not mentioning any other party, if they wanted to express support for the Lib Dems, UKIP or Labour. As for "warning of the dangers of a Miliband-led government", that is certainly implied, though not stated.....as I said, the cowards are allowing themselves sufficient wiggle room to ingratiate themselves with Red Ed if he wins, rather than coming out and saying "Vote Tory, the party of big wealth and big business!" Why so shy?! 

 

(2) It's a perfectly coherent stance to agree with business executives when they say we should stay in the EU and to disagree when they imply that Britain needs a Tory government or that tax cuts for big business are a good idea. Many (most?) Tories take the opposite view, disagreeing with big business over Europe but agreeing over tax cuts for big business and the rich. I hope that the campaign generates a good debate about the EU, though the Tories are bound to try to prevent that as it will expose their massive divisions, with the majority Tory view at odds with business leaders. Personally, I'd like Labour to support a referendum, but their position is a lot more united and coherent than the Tory position on Europe.

 

(3) You're lucky if all your employers have shown such an enlightened attitude to their staff (some certainly do, but some just want to shaft them for all they're worth, in my experience). Anyway, it wasn't the business bods who implied that they were the only "wealth creators" (even the exploitative ones would be savvy enough to pretend they valued their staff), it was Moosebreath who claimed that these business executives were "THE creators of jobs and wealth", implying that employees do not create wealth.

[leicsmac]

You are confusing academics and research types with people actually running business.

 

 

What have the views of academic economists got to do with big business and the banking sector? Economists are famously terrible at predicting anything.

 

Really? Seems a bit disingenuous and No True Scotsman-like to disavow the actions of those who create the theories as nothing to to with those that apply them.

 

Who do these business and banks rely upon for prediction and advice on economic theory? Who created and adapt the theories that they put into practice most often? 

 

Is it so difficult to believe that the whole thing is totally untrustworthy, not just one part of it?.

[Webbo]

  The idea that 2 thirds of all economists think austerity is a bad idea because 2 thirds 33 out of 50 asked think it is is a bit laughable. I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to find 50 economists who thinks it's the best course.

 

          Anyway;

 

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today. Laurence J. Peter

 

 

[MooseBreath]

Really? Seems a bit disingenuous and No True Scotsman-like to disavow the actions of those who create the theories as nothing to to with those that apply them.

Who do these business and banks rely upon for prediction and advice on economic theory? Who created and adapt the theories that they put into practice most often?

Is it so difficult to believe that the whole thing is totally untrustworthy, not just one part of it?.

I think you're assuming far more of a connection between academic economists and real businesses than actually exists. Banks and other businesses don't sit around waiting for the local university lecturers to tell them what to do. The academic world is mostly out on its own, dressed in crap tweed jackets, ignored by the real world. And economics as an academic subject is relatively narrow in scope, your average economics professor wouldn't have a clue how to run a bank never mind other businesses.

[l444ry]

Another pathetic but predictable Tory stunt aided by their compliant media. These businessmen have donated £9 million to the Conservatives.. Frankie Boyle is right, Wonder if they could get 100 nurses to sign something in support of them as well!

[leicsmac]

  The idea that 2 thirds of all economists think austerity is a bad idea because 2 thirds 33 out of 50 asked think it is is a bit laughable. I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to find 50 economists who thinks it's the best course.

 

          Anyway;

 

 

 

 

This I do in fact agree with. 50 is not nearly big enough number for a definitive base.

 

That said, given how frequently they get things wrong it might be a fools errand anyway. Ah well...if they were that good at maths but actually wanted to be involved a profession that gives reliable and trustworthy results, they'd be physicists. 

[Webbo]

Another pathetic but predictable Tory stunt aided by their compliant media. These businessmen have donated £9 million to the Conservatives.. Frankie Boyle is right, Wonder if they could get 100 nurses to sign something in support of them as well!

I know 2 or 3 nurses and the way they talk I'm pretty sure they're tory, certainly not labour anyway.