The Politics Thread

[Wymsey]

Thomas Mair sentenced to life for murdering Labour MP Jo Cox.

May this please be the last incident that think politics is above everything else and is the answer.

[bovril]

I hadn't heard of Jo Cox before the shooting but reading about her she seems to represent most of what is good in humanity, Muir being the complete opposite. Disgusting waste of human life.

[Barky]

Bbc and others maybe going a bit overboard with their headlines today about living standards being worse than at any time since the war, but it's interesting how something as important as that will draw no comments on here while if jeremy corbyn ate a slice of pizza the wrong way it would probably get twenty pages.

 

I think we can consider ourselves well and truly divided and ruled.

[Webbo]

40 minutes ago, Barky said:

Bbc and others maybe going a bit overboard with their headlines today about living standards being worse than at any time since the war, but it's interesting how something as important as that will draw no comments on here while if jeremy corbyn ate a slice of pizza the wrong way it would probably get twenty pages.

 

I think we can consider ourselves well and truly divided and ruled.

Wages are growing at their slowest rate since the war, we're still pretty well off compared to most countries.

[Alf Bentley]

Living standards aren't worse than at any time since the war. It's the medium-term trend in living standards over the past decade that has been the worst since the war..

 

They now reckon that living standards in 2020 will be similar to living standards in 2008 - the longest period of stagnation in living standards since the war.

Living standards have generally risen continuously since the war (apart from the odd year or two of decline), sometimes quickly and sometimes slowly - and people have come to expect rising living standards.

 

Of course, that stagnation in living standards conceals variations, some people doing nicely, others very badly - as is the case with Govt policy, too.

- Analysts seem to reckon that the top 1%, who have done very well economically in the last decade, will take a hit from Hammond's policy plans

- The "squeezed middle" will benefit very slightly from Hammond's plans, but the bottom 30% will take a big hit ...

 

Same old Tories, kicking the poor and messing up the British economy. 

[Webbo]

38 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Living standards aren't worse than at any time since the war. It's the medium-term trend in living standards over the past decade that has been the worst since the war..

 

They now reckon that living standards in 2020 will be similar to living standards in 2008 - the longest period of stagnation in living standards since the war.

Living standards have generally risen continuously since the war (apart from the odd year or two of decline), sometimes quickly and sometimes slowly - and people have come to expect rising living standards.

 

Of course, that stagnation in living standards conceals variations, some people doing nicely, others very badly - as is the case with Govt policy, too.

- Analysts seem to reckon that the top 1%, who have done very well economically in the last decade, will take a hit from Hammond's policy plans

- The "squeezed middle" will benefit very slightly from Hammond's plans, but the bottom 30% will take a big hit ...

 

Same old Tories, kicking the poor and messing up the British economy. 

It's all based on predicted wage growth and predicted inflation though, wages are growing reasonably well at the minute.

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

It's all based on predicted wage growth and predicted inflation though, wages are growing reasonably well at the minute.

 

Yep, figures for future years are predictions only. They could be unduly pessimistic....but they could also be unduly optimistic.

A short/medium-term hike in inflation seems almost certain due to more expensive imports and the growth figures look optimistic given all the prevailing uncertainty.

 

Of course, there could be an exports boom and higher pay increases than expected - or the uncertainty over Brexit/trade deals might be eliminated quickly, generating more investment than expected.

On the other hand, if the EU takes a tough line in Brexit negotiations, uncertainty could get worse, employers could avoid investment or even make job cuts or plans to take employment abroad....and given UK debt and potential hassles over credit ratings, it wouldn't be easy for the Govt to splash out on public spending.

 

As for wages, it depends on timescale, as always. Due to low inflation, real pay has improved a bit over the last couple of years - but was pretty disastrous for about 5-6 years before that, and a rise in inflation is one of the events that experts are predicting most confidently. Will many employers offer generous pay rises to compensate in the present climate? The next few years could be a hell of a rollercoaster. 

[Webbo]

10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Yep, figures for future years are predictions only. They could be unduly pessimistic....but they could also be unduly optimistic.

A short/medium-term hike in inflation seems almost certain due to more expensive imports and the growth figures look optimistic given all the prevailing uncertainty.

 

Of course, there could be an exports boom and higher pay increases than expected - or the uncertainty over Brexit/trade deals might be eliminated quickly, generating more investment than expected.

On the other hand, if the EU takes a tough line in Brexit negotiations, uncertainty could get worse, employers could avoid investment or even make job cuts or plans to take employment abroad....and given UK debt and potential hassles over credit ratings, it wouldn't be easy for the Govt to splash out on public spending.

 

As for wages, it depends on timescale, as always. Due to low inflation, real pay has improved a bit over the last couple of years - but was pretty disastrous for about 5-6 years before that, and a rise in inflation is one of the events that experts are predicting most confidently. Will many employers offer generous pay rises to compensate in the present climate? The next few years could be a hell of a rollercoaster. 

They confidently predicted it would go up last month and it went down. I suspect they've over done the gloom so that they can claim credit when we exceed expectations.

 

They could be over optimistic as well, it wouldn't surprise me if we had a recession next year either, we're about due .

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, Webbo said:

They confidently predicted it would go up last month and it went down. I suspect they've over done the gloom so that they can claim credit when we exceed expectations.

 

They could be over optimistic as well, it wouldn't surprise me if we had a recession next year either, we're about due .

 

What happens in one particular month is hard to predict and doesn't really matter much. What matters is economic developments over longer timescales.

 

Unless the pound bounces back on exchange markets, surely it's just a matter of time before we get inflation as we import more than we export - particularly for goods, as opposed to services.

Retailers or manufacturers dependent on imports will surely have to put prices up sooner rather than later to protect shareholder value - and the viability of their firms in competitive markets.

 

Interest rates will be an interesting one. The consensus seems to be that they'll stay low - which will mean a shafting for savers if inflation is significantly higher than interest on savings.

On the other hand, if interest rates did rise, it would make life even harder for cash-stretched people on mortgages, or companies with debts and tight profit margins, and could make UK plc debt costlier to service with knock-on tax/spending issues....

 

I'd settle right now for the sort of figures Hammond quoted. My guess is that the official figures are optimistic and things will be a lot tougher. I might be wrong and hope that I am.

There's so much uncertainty in the world just now, though - in just about every major economic power in the world: uncertainty over Brexit, possible US isolationism, economic weakness of EU, uncertain outlook for China....

I'm not a pessimist by nature, but feel pretty pessimistic about that combination of events, even if 1 or 2 of the events don't turn out to be as bad as expected. 

[leicsmac]

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

What happens in one particular month is hard to predict and doesn't really matter much. What matters is economic developments over longer timescales.

 

Unless the pound bounces back on exchange markets, surely it's just a matter of time before we get inflation as we import more than we export - particularly for goods, as opposed to services.

Retailers or manufacturers dependent on imports will surely have to put prices up sooner rather than later to protect shareholder value - and the viability of their firms in competitive markets.

 

Interest rates will be an interesting one. The consensus seems to be that they'll stay low - which will mean a shafting for savers if inflation is significantly higher than interest on savings.

On the other hand, if interest rates did rise, it would make life even harder for cash-stretched people on mortgages, or companies with debts and tight profit margins, and could make UK plc debt costlier to service with knock-on tax/spending issues....

 

I'd settle right now for the sort of figures Hammond quoted. My guess is that the official figures are optimistic and things will be a lot tougher. I might be wrong and hope that I am.

There's so much uncertainty in the world just now, though - in just about every major economic power in the world: uncertainty over Brexit, possible US isolationism, economic weakness of EU, uncertain outlook for China....

I'm not a pessimist by nature, but feel pretty pessimistic about that combination of events, even if 1 or 2 of the events don't turn out to be as bad as expected. 

My particular worry is that the economic problems you discuss could be followed by some pretty nasty social ones.

[Barky]

2 hours ago, Webbo said:

It's all based on predicted wage growth and predicted inflation though, wages are growing reasonably well at the minute.

Not really. We've the worst wage growth in the developed world since 2008. With inflation picking up we'll soon be back in negative territory. UK wage growth has been dreadful for the last seven years, and looks set for another woeful five years at least. Every other major European country has done better than we have. It's appalling.

[Webbo]

38 minutes ago, Barky said:

Not really. We've the worst wage growth in the developed world since 2008. With inflation picking up we'll soon be back in negative territory. UK wage growth has been dreadful for the last seven years, and looks set for another woeful five years at least. Every other major European country has done better than we have. It's appalling.

We've got better employment figures than every EU country apart from Germany and Denmark and there's not much in it. What's worse slow wage growth or mass unemployment?

[Webbo]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

My particular worry is that the economic problems you discuss could be followed by some pretty nasty social ones.

You need to lighten up Mac. Despite what you might see in certain parts of the media we've not all of a sudden turned into a nation of Neo Nazis. 

[Barky]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We've got better employment figures than every EU country apart from Germany and Denmark and there's not much in it. What's worse slow wage growth or mass unemployment?

They aren't the the only two options. Other countries manage strong wage growth with low unemployment. We've done it ourselves in the past.

[Webbo]

Just now, Barky said:

They aren't the the only two options. Other countries manage strong wage growth with low unemployment. We've done it ourselves in the past.

But mass immigration means that employers don't have to increase wages to attract workers, it's simply supply and demand.

[Barky]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

But mass immigration means that employers don't have to increase wages to attract workers, it's simply supply and demand.

Other countries manage to combine immigration with strong wage growth. We've done it ourselves in the past. 

[Nick]

On 28 October 2016 at 11:39, MattP said:

Jenny Tonge resigns after being suspended by the Lib Dems for comments comparing Israel to ISIS and for hosting a meeting where Jews were blamed for the Holocaust.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/27/jenny-tonge-quits-lib-dems-after-suspension-for-alleged-antisemitic-comments

 

Is there another left wing party out there willing to take her on that would tolerate these views?

 

 

Thats not what happened though is it Matt or what the article said?

 

She hosted a meeting and an attendee made the comments... She may be Hitler for all I know but at least lets be honest about what the article said.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Barky said:

Other countries manage to combine immigration with strong wage growth. We've done it ourselves in the past. 

The numbers we're getting atm? 

[Barky]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

The numbers we're getting atm? 

Yes for quite a few years pre-2008 we had a similar amount of immigration and combined it with strong wage growth. 

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, Webbo said:

You need to lighten up Mac. Despite what you might see in certain parts of the media we've not all of a sudden turned into a nation of Neo Nazis. 

Ha! Well, to be fair 30s Germany didn't either. Just had too many people either apathetic, worried about the economic bottom line or (in the end) too scared to do anything about what became. What was it Churchill said about good people doing nothing?

 

For what it's worth I don't think things will get that bad this time round as anyone rational in power would know everyone loses, but being on guard against such forces means they don't gain traction.

 

So...overall, I'm thinking probably 80s rather than 30s as a historical guide right now. But please, leave out the deliberate overlooking of a dreadful disease killing a lot of a vulnerable demographic in the US, the increased division between areas of the UK and above all the awful music and fashion, please?

[Webbo]

2 minutes ago, Barky said:

Yes for quite a few years pre-2008 we had a similar amount of immigration and combined it with strong wage growth. 

I'll take your word for it but that was during a world wide boom, circumstances are different now.

[Barky]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I'll take your word for it but that was during a world wide boom, circumstances are different now.

Circumstances are the same for every other country we compete with but we're doing the worst. Not average, not slightly below average, but the worst.

 

It's a desperately poor record which I don't think anyone can deny or defend.

[Webbo]

2 minutes ago, Barky said:

Circumstances are the same for every other country we compete with but we're doing the worst. Not average, not slightly below average, but the worst.

 

It's a desperately poor record which I don't think anyone can deny or defend.

We're not getting poorer. Atm we're getting richer all be it slowly, it may be that if the projections are correct(which they usually aren't)we'll be in the same place where we were in 2008 and nobody claimed we were all in poverty then. Meanwhile growth continues, unemployment continues to fall, inflation is low. All this despite the dire economic performance of most of the Eurozone. We're doing okay.

[Barky]

14 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We're not getting poorer. Atm we're getting richer all be it slowly, it may be that if the projections are correct(which they usually aren't)we'll be in the same place where we were in 2008 and nobody claimed we were all in poverty then. Meanwhile growth continues, unemployment continues to fall, inflation is low. All this despite the dire economic performance of most of the Eurozone. We're doing okay.

The eurozone has better wage growth than us and most European countries have reasonable unemployment. Personally I couldn't care less about GDP or whatever you're referring to when you describe the eurozone as dire. It makes no difference to me, what matters to me is jobs and wage growth and our record on the latter is diabolical, and on the former debatable at best. We're not in poverty no, but not being in poverty is hardly something to celebrate in what is supppsed to be a rich developed country.

[Alf Bentley]

53 minutes ago, Webbo said:

But mass immigration means that employers don't have to increase wages to attract workers, it's simply supply and demand.

 

Here's a map showing immigration by constituency: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11251624/Where-are-the-immigrants-This-map-will-tell-you.html

 

Areas with particularly high immigration include: London, Manchester, Leeds, Leicester. Oxford, Cambridge and Milton Keynes.

Areas with particularly low immigration include: Sunderland, Hartlepool, Nuneaton, Coalville. Clacton and S. Wales 

 

According to your theory of simple supply & demand and mass immigration, high-immigration places like London, Cambridge & Milton Keynes should have very low pay.

Meanwhile low-immigration places like Hartlepool, Coalville and Clacton should be high-wage boom towns. Is that the case?