Alf Bentley Posted 20 October 2016 Share Posted 20 October 2016 1 hour ago, MattP said: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html Tories opening up a huge lead now, getting to levels of support they haven't had since the 50's. Conservatives 47% (+7) Labour 29% (-5) LDEM: 7% (+1) UKIP: 6% (-3) GRN: 4% (-1) Those figures are a lot worse than polls before the Thatcher landslide of 1983. They're pretty similar to those in 1997, when Blair won a majority of 179. A lot of it is probably down to the unpopularity of most of the opposition parties, rather than faith in the Tories being that deep. I wouldn't expect that level of Tory popularity to last if/when things get bumpy (or worse) during the Brexit negotiations. But no opposition party seems to be set to take advantage if/when things get tricky. UKIP seem to be imploding even more than Labour. Still, maybe those 500,000 new members of the Labour "social movement" will soon be out on doorsteps and in phone rooms, converting former Tory/UKIP voters? I won't hold my breath.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 October 2016 Share Posted 20 October 2016 12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Those figures are a lot worse than polls before the Thatcher landslide of 1983. They're pretty similar to those in 1997, when Blair won a majority of 179. A lot of it is probably down to the unpopularity of most of the opposition parties, rather than faith in the Tories being that deep. I wouldn't expect that level of Tory popularity to last if/when things get bumpy (or worse) during the Brexit negotiations. But no opposition party seems to be set to take advantage if/when things get tricky. UKIP seem to be imploding even more than Labour. Still, maybe those 500,000 new members of the Labour "social movement" will soon be out on doorsteps and in phone rooms, converting former Tory/UKIP voters? I won't hold my breath.... It's a level of support I didn't think I'd see for one party again. (It's one poll though and probably in a margin of error, but 40% plus is regular now and that will be enough for a big win at a General Election under our system) The Brexit negotiations are going to be tough, but the public do seem to be warming to the hard Brexit option if these polls are to be believed. I think UKIP might well be finished, the Woolfe scenario is a disaster and has makde them look like a joke, problem for Corbyn is they have ended up being a gateway for Labour voters to end up as Tories. You realise what a job Farage was doing now, without him the whole thing just falls to pieces. Two by-elections tonight, it will be interesting to see how the Lib Dems go in Witney, probably the first test of their new strategy in a safe Tory seat that voted remain. I full expect them to leapfrog Labour and UKIP into second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 20 October 2016 Share Posted 20 October 2016 6 minutes ago, MattP said: It's a level of support I didn't think I'd see for one party again. (It's one poll though and probably in a margin of error, but 40% plus is regular now and that will be enough for a big win at a General Election under our system) The Brexit negotiations are going to be tough, but the public do seem to be warming to the hard Brexit option if these polls are to be believed. I think UKIP might well be finished, the Woolfe scenario is a disaster and has makde them look like a joke, problem for Corbyn is they have ended up being a gateway for Labour voters to end up as Tories. You realise what a job Farage was doing now, without him the whole thing just falls to pieces. Two by-elections tonight, it will be interesting to see how the Lib Dems go in Witney, probably the first test of their new strategy in a safe Tory seat that voted remain. I full expect them to leapfrog Labour and UKIP into second. Hard Brexit might appeal to a lot of people when presented as "reclaiming our sovereignty", "taking back control"....and the important things in everyday life being OK or better than before. If they find that Hard Brexit comes with some combination of higher prices, lower real incomes, higher unemployment, higher mortgage interest rates. deteriorating public services, firms moving to the continent, no visible reduction in the number of foreigners and no new trade deals, Hard Brexit might start losing its appeal a bit. But I'm sure we disagree about the likelihood of that scenario. I think that at least some of it will happen, even if Remainers do sometimes exaggerate. I'm sure you're right that a lot of UKIP voters will switch to the Tories (or stay at home) in the short-term, but I'm not sure that's sustainable longer-term unless Brexit is massively easier and more successful than I anticipate. I assume that a lot of UKIP voters are anti-establishment and pissed off with the status quo, so the Tories would have to be exceptionally successful in impossibly difficult times to retain their support. If Labour was offering any sort of viable opposition, it would be a great opportunity for them to pick up extra support....but they're off with the fairies. A great opportunity for an opposition party to win over new support...but none of them seem capable of doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claridge Posted 20 October 2016 Share Posted 20 October 2016 On 10/10/2016 at 15:25, MattP said: Possible, although Keir Starmer said yesterday on Marr he did say it had to come down. (although Diane Abbott then said that wasn't the case on the Westminster Hour) I think whenever Labour does fight the next election they'll be the first party ever to not have a policy on immigration in the manifesto, they'll close their eyes to it. If problems do occur with hard brexit,they won't be apparent until after the 2020 election. That means labour in 2025 trying to overthrow a probable 100 plus Tory majority,which is going to be almost impossible.2030 it is then.i doubt if the next labour pm is even an mp yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 Tories hold on in Witney despite a large swing to the Lib Dems and Labour hold Baylet and Spen. The turnout in the latter was less than 25% which probably shows why we should have had a proper election. In reality I don't think we can take too much from either given the turnouts, the Lib Dems will certainly see some potential in there pro-remain campaign though on the back of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claridge Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 54 minutes ago, MattP said: Tories hold on in Witney despite a large swing to the Lib Dems and Labour hold Baylet and Spen. The turnout in the latter was less than 25% which probably shows why we should have had a proper election. In reality I don't think we can take too much from either given the turnouts, the Lib Dems will certainly see some potential in there pro-remain campaign though on the back of it. Bit of a reality check for the Tories though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoboFox Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 Leicester's favourite son is being called "jug-eared" and a "leftie luvvie" by Murdoch's despicable sh*trag, and calling for him to be sacked for supposedly "breaching BBC impartiality". Essentially stating his opinion on the migrant situation and calling out the S**'s bollocks. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2018976/leftie-luvvie-gary-lineker-should-be-sacked-for-peddling-charity-lie-about-child-migrant-38/ His response: He's getting lots of support from people on Twitter, and naturally getting some sh*t from morons too. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobHawk Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 19 minutes ago, RoboFox said: Leicester's favourite son is being called "jug-eared" and a "leftie luvvie" by Murdoch's despicable sh*trag, and calling for him to be sacked for supposedly "breaching BBC impartiality". Essentially stating his opinion on the migrant situation and calling out the S**'s bollocks. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2018976/leftie-luvvie-gary-lineker-should-be-sacked-for-peddling-charity-lie-about-child-migrant-38/ His response: He's getting lots of support from people on Twitter, and naturally getting some sh*t from morons too. Thoughts? The sun are pathetic - Agree with him or not, he's allowed an opinion and calling for him to be sacked is outrageous. I personally agree with his stance, and agree that it seems to be the "I'm not Racist but..." morons giving him stick from what i've seen on social media! Lets be honest though, the whole thing is bollocks and shows the poisen of social media - The sun are just the shit stirrers trying to making it even bigger - whereas they should actually be concentrating on real news! No wonder we are getting thicker and more ill informed when our media are the biggest morons in the country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 Of course he is entitled to any opinion he wants to have as I'm far as I am aware BBC Sports journalists arent bound by political impartiality rules. He shouldn't have helped spread the rumour that one of the people was an interpreter when he wasn't but the refugee charity who made up that lie are to blame for that, not him. It's certainly not a sackable offence though. On the wider issue it is appalling what has happened though and yet again emphasises why the public vote for things like Brexit, they simply have no trust in our politicians to handle immigration policy fairly, we've been subject to pictures of poor children with blood running down there face, washing up on beaches and speeches from people like Yvette Cooper telling us how pre-pubescent boys and girls are in danger of being sexually exploited, with this, quite rightly, public opinion turned and most people actually wanted to see us take these children in and give them a chance at life, then it actually happens and we get at best people in their late teens and at worst geezers who look the other side of thirty, making a complete mockery of the whole thing. Stuff like this stirs up anti-refugee feeling more than the right wing press could dream of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry - LCFC Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 While it is close, this poll suggests that there isn't a clear desire for a Hard Brexit. I highly recommend the account Britain Elects by the way, great source of opinion polls on a range of issues.. They're on Facebook too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 26 minutes ago, Harry - LCFC said: While it is close, this poll suggests that there isn't a clear desire for a Hard Brexit. I highly recommend the account Britain Elects by the way, great source of opinion polls on a range of issues.. They're on Facebook too. It also shows 7% of the population have no idea what the word "prioritise" means. It is a great site Britainelects, on the ball with all the local elections and absolutely spot on with turnouts last night way before the BBC and Sky were, no idea where they get the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballwipe Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 1 hour ago, MattP said: It also shows 7% of the population have no idea what the word "prioritise" means. It is a great site Britainelects, on the ball with all the local elections and absolutely spot on with turnouts last night way before the BBC and Sky were, no idea where they get the information. I find they get some terrible stick though in the replies. Not sure whether it's people taking out their frustration on the twitter account as some people tend to do, but whenever they tweet it seems like they have to justify the information or the poll, which is a shame because as you rightly say it is a good site, and I get the impression it's not someone's full-time job (unless I'm entirely mistaken) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 4 hours ago, RoboFox said: Leicester's favourite son is being called "jug-eared" and a "leftie luvvie" by Murdoch's despicable sh*trag, and calling for him to be sacked for supposedly "breaching BBC impartiality". Essentially stating his opinion on the migrant situation and calling out the S**'s bollocks. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2018976/leftie-luvvie-gary-lineker-should-be-sacked-for-peddling-charity-lie-about-child-migrant-38/ His response: He's getting lots of support from people on Twitter, and naturally getting some sh*t from morons too. Thoughts? "Imagine, just for a second, being a refugee having to flee from your home " My thought is is he's like Charlotte Church without the tits, Look at me, I'm such a good person because I make banal comments about fashionable subjects on twitter. He accused people of being racist because places in this country meant for children had been taken by men in their 30s and some people had the nerve to point this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 4 hours ago, Harry - LCFC said: While it is close, this poll suggests that there isn't a clear desire for a Hard Brexit. I highly recommend the account Britain Elects by the way, great source of opinion polls on a range of issues.. They're on Facebook too. The EU have told us there is hard brexit or no brexit. To stay in the single market we have to accept free movement and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. If we accept all that there's no point leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lionator Posted 21 October 2016 Share Posted 21 October 2016 4 hours ago, Webbo said: "Imagine, just for a second, being a refugee having to flee from your home " My thought is is he's like Charlotte Church without the tits, Look at me, I'm such a good person because I make banal comments about fashionable subjects on twitter. He accused people of being racist because places in this country meant for children had been taken by men in their 30s and some people had the nerve to point this out. I think he only accused Tommy Robinson and his followers of being racist, which indeed they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Oxlong Posted 22 October 2016 Share Posted 22 October 2016 So, after 100 days as PM Theresa May is at last beginning to relax into the role Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 25 October 2016 Share Posted 25 October 2016 The Edstone cost £7,600. I honestly don't know what to say about that. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/labour-fined-20000-for-undeclared-election-spending-including-for-ed-stone I'd imagine this is also the reason why they haven't been more vocal on the Tory electoral fraud investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 25 October 2016 Share Posted 25 October 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/zac-goldsmith-to-resign-as-tory-mp-after-heathrow-go-ahead Zac resigns on Heathrow decision. Interesting by-election to say the least, Goldsmith is a very popular guy in Richmond and will stand as an independent, with the EU vote and the result from Witney last week, I;m sure the Tories won't stand against him as it would be handing the seat to the Liberal Democrats. I think it will be pretty close anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 25 October 2016 Share Posted 25 October 2016 12 minutes ago, MattP said: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/zac-goldsmith-to-resign-as-tory-mp-after-heathrow-go-ahead Zac resigns on Heathrow decision. Interesting by-election to say the least, Goldsmith is a very popular guy in Richmond and will stand as an independent, with the EU vote and the result from Witney last week, I;m sure the Tories won't stand against him as it would be handing the seat to the Liberal Democrats. I think it will be pretty close anyway. He doesn't seem to have yet said what his status would be at the by-election - and that he'd be consulting his constituency party. I wonder if he'll stand as an independent with the support of the Richmond constituency Tory party? If so, the Tories presumably wouldn't stand against him and he'd probably win...or would he? If he stands as an out-and-out independent, the Tories would struggle to justify not standing a candidate. It certainly wouldn't be a one-issue by-election, though. Are that many people in Richmond (a good few miles from Heathrow) that bothered about a few extra planes overhead? Whereas, Richmond is strong EU Remain territory - and a Lib Dem seat until 2010. Also, whose constituency is Heathrow in? John McDonnell's....maybe he'll turn up to support Goldsmith? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox92 Posted 25 October 2016 Share Posted 25 October 2016 Fair play to Goldsmith if it's something he truly believes in. That south west area feel more than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 25 October 2016 Share Posted 25 October 2016 22 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: He doesn't seem to have yet said what his status would be at the by-election - and that he'd be consulting his constituency party. I wonder if he'll stand as an independent with the support of the Richmond constituency Tory party? If so, the Tories presumably wouldn't stand against him and he'd probably win...or would he? If he stands as an out-and-out independent, the Tories would struggle to justify not standing a candidate. It certainly wouldn't be a one-issue by-election, though. Are that many people in Richmond (a good few miles from Heathrow) that bothered about a few extra planes overhead? Whereas, Richmond is strong EU Remain territory - and a Lib Dem seat until 2010. Also, whose constituency is Heathrow in? John McDonnell's....maybe he'll turn up to support Goldsmith? Hills have odds up, Lib Dems 4/5 Zac 5/4 - if it's that close between the two now if Zac doesnt stand as a Tory pointless they putting anyone up against him and you hand it to the Liberals. I'd imagine the scenario you have put, he stands with the support of the local party as an independent to see if they still want him as a person to represent them. (it probably even suits both, I don't think the Tories would be too bothered about losing Zac in 2020 after the disaster of the mayoral race, if they had a large majority they would probably be prepared to stand against him and lose it now) Hard seat to call, If I had a gun to my head after seeing what happened in Witney you would have to go with the Dems though. McDonnell? Doubt he'll say anything, there must be a Freedom for Palestine rally somewhere this weekend that's more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 25 October 2016 Share Posted 25 October 2016 9 minutes ago, MattP said: McDonnell? Doubt he'll say anything, there must be a Freedom for Palestine rally somewhere this weekend that's more important. Apparently not. Looks like this has achieved the impossible and united the Labour Party. http://labourlist.org/2016/10/khan-and-mcdonnell-united-in-attacking-heathrow-expansion-plans/ "Sadiq Khan and John McDonnell have criticised the Government’s decision to give the green light to expansion plans for Heathrow, highlighting the effect on air pollution and local communities. McDonnell, shadow Chancellor, released a statement saying it “remains a disaster for air pollution, noise levels and our efforts to tackle climate change”. He added that: “4,000 homes face the prospect of either being demolished or rendered unliveable by air pollution and noise… I’ll continue to support my constituents in campaigning against this runway so that it never sees the light of day.” Khan, London mayor, says: “The government are running roughshod over Londoners’ views – just five months ago I was elected as Mayor on a clear platform of opposing a new runway at Heathrow, a position that was shared by the Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green and UKIP candidates in that election.” He highlights the issue of decreased air quality, stating that “air pollution around the airport is already above legal levels of NO2” and the issue of noise pollution. He says that an expansion of Gatwick would have been better on these issues, and it “could be built quicker and cheaper.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 25 October 2016 Share Posted 25 October 2016 Quote just five months ago I was elected as Mayor on a clear platform of opposing a new runway at Heathrow, a position that was shared by the Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green and UKIP candidates in that election A quite incredible achievement for a government policy to unite those. My head says already these plans will never go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davieG Posted 26 October 2016 Share Posted 26 October 2016 Earnings rise fastest for the low-paid, says ONS By Kevin PeacheyPersonal finance reporter 2 minutes ago From the sectionBusiness Share Image copyrightPA Earnings have risen fastest among the lowest paid owing to the introduction of higher minimum wage levels. A 6.2% rise for the lowest paid UK workers meant pay inequality narrowed between April 2015 to April 2016, the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate. The pay gap between men and women has also shrunk slightly, it said. Pay overall rose at its joint highest rate since the financial crisis, driven by wage rises in the private sector. Weekly earnings for full-time workers were 2.2% higher in April from a year earlier, or by 1.9% after inflation. In a sign of the growing "gig" economy, part-time earnings were up by 6.6%. Despite the increases, the Resolution Foundation think-tank points out that typical earnings still remain 6.8% below pre-financial crisis levels. The average full-time worker was paid £539 a week - or £28,028 a year - before tax in April 2016. Living wage The highest paid workers saw a 2.5% rise in earnings over the same period, but it was the lowest paid who have seen the fastest increase. The National Living Wage (NLW) came into force on 1 April, requiring employers to pay workers aged 25 and over at least £7.20 an hour. This led to an immediate pay rise for 1.8 million workers. Workers aged 21 to 24 have been paid the National Minimum Wage of £6.95 an hour since 1 October. Hourly earnings, excluding overtime, for full-time jobs among the lowest-paid increased by 5.9% from £6.86 to £7.26 between 2015 and 2016. Image copyrightPA Laura Gardiner, senior policy analyst at the Resolution Foundation, said: "The introduction of the National Living Wage has well and truly made its mark on pay across Britain. The new wage floor has contributed to a significant closing of the gender pay gap and a welcome fall in pay inequality. "But while 2016 has been the strongest year for pay in over five years, we may not see this level of growth again this parliament given the outlook for lower earnings growth and higher inflation in the wake of the Brexit vote. "It is encouraging to see pay finally recovering after a long and painful squeeze, but with the pace of recovery set to slow it could be another decade before we see a return to pre-crash pay levels." To represent the lowest paid, the ONS uses someone who would be fifth worst paid among 100 people in a cross-section of the UK population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 28 October 2016 Share Posted 28 October 2016 Jenny Tonge resigns after being suspended by the Lib Dems for comments comparing Israel to ISIS and for hosting a meeting where Jews were blamed for the Holocaust. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/27/jenny-tonge-quits-lib-dems-after-suspension-for-alleged-antisemitic-comments Is there another left wing party out there willing to take her on that would tolerate these views? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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