The Politics Thread

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

I'd definitely say England's already a largely xenophobic nation.  Yes we're seeing it with the anti-Semites within modern labour, but we're also seeing it with the many kippers who vote UKIP as an anti-foreigner vote and also with the massive number of people who decided to vote to leave the EU under the carefully worded basis of 'regaining control' of our borders (unfortunately there are no figures to show how many people this was a key concern for).

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

[Carl the Llama]

3 minutes ago, Webbo said:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

Thanks, so that encompasses 33% of 52% of 72% (vote turnout) of the voting public, ie 12% of the voting public.  Worrying.

[Webbo]

If you're going to be childish there's no point continuing.

[Carl the Llama]

3 minutes ago, Webbo said:

If you're going to be childish there's no point continuing.

I may sound facetious but I do find it genuinely concerning that the concern with keeping out Johnny foreigner makes up such a large portion of contemporary public opinion.  Especially when of all countries we're probably one of the best examples of why you should be open to immigration instead of suspicious of the nebulous 'other'.

[Alf Bentley]

32 minutes ago, Webbo said:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

 

Some interesting data in there:

- Referendum campaign had very little impact on the outcome: a slight drift to Leave in the last few months, slight drift to Remain in last few weeks

- Massive difference over national identity: Leave voters overwhelmingly feel more English, Remain voters overwhelmingly feel more British

- Massive difference in perceptions of life: Leave voters much more pissed off with their lives, negative about state of society and pessimistic about future prospects

- Tory Brexiteers massively in favour of Boris becoming PM (on 23/6)

- Immigration was very important indeed to a significant minority

[Webbo]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Some interesting data in there:

- Referendum campaign had very little impact on the outcome: a slight drift to Leave in the last few months, slight drift to Remain in last few weeks

- Massive difference over national identity: Leave voters overwhelmingly feel more English, Remain voters overwhelmingly feel more British

- Massive difference in perceptions of life: Leave voters much more pissed off with their lives, negative about state of society and pessimistic about future prospects

- Tory Brexiteers massively in favour of Boris becoming PM (on 23/6)

- Immigration was very important indeed to a significant minority

But not as much as sovereignty.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Webbo said:

But not as much as sovereignty.

 

True. I emphasised immigration, not sovereignty because its importance as a motive for Leave voters was more surprising to me - and even greater than I'd expected.

 

"Sovereignty", the idea that Brussels exercises too much power over the UK has always been a strong motive behind Euroscepticism.

 

Immigration has always been around as an issue, to varying degrees, but only seems to have become so important as a motive for Euroscepticism more recently.

That's partly understandable, due to high immigration from Eastern Europe.....but I wonder how important it would have been if living standards had been rising, public services improving - or even if more control had been exercised over non-EU immigration?

The timing and context of the referendum was highly favourable to Leave. 

 

[Guest MattP]

4 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

I'd definitely say England's already a largely xenophobic nation.  Yes we're seeing it with the anti-Semites within modern labour, but we're also seeing it with the many kippers who vote UKIP as an anti-foreigner vote and also with the massive number of people who decided to vote to leave the EU under the carefully worded basis of 'regaining control' of our borders (unfortunately there are no figures to show how many people this was a key concern for).

Absurd, no country has been so welcoming to immigrants as our nation, we've undergone one of the biggest demographic changes in modern times and there has been no serious revolt to it, and when you consider what has happened across some of the Northern Towns since the mid-1990's I'd say that has shown a tolerance from the people that has gone well beyond the call of duty.

 

4 hours ago, Webbo said:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

Cheers for that Webbo, was a great read. As I thought, sovereignty was clearly the top issue leavers voted on.

 

4 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

I may sound facetious but I do find it genuinely concerning that the concern with keeping out Johnny foreigner makes up such a large portion of contemporary public opinion.  Especially when of all countries we're probably one of the best examples of why you should be open to immigration instead of suspicious of the nebulous 'other'.

I don't why I'm even bothering but I'll say it again anyway, wanting to control who comes into your country doesn't mean you want to keep out "Johnny Foreigner" - You haven't learned a thing from the last few months have you?

[Carl the Llama]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Absurd, no country has been so welcoming to immigrants as our nation, we've undergone one of the biggest demographic changes in modern times and there has been no serious revolt to it, and when you consider what has happened across some of the Northern Towns since the mid-1990's I'd say that has shown a tolerance from the people that has gone well beyond the call of duty.

That's kind of my point, we've welcomed them and benefited from it.  It's stupid to blame immigrants who on the whole have been an economic boon for us for the negative effects on the poorer areas of the country caused by self-serving policymaking by our politicians.

 

1 hour ago, MattP said:

I don't why I'm even bothering but I'll say it again anyway, wanting to control who comes into your country doesn't mean you want to keep out "Johnny Foreigner" - You haven't learned a thing from the last few months have you?

And yet my personal experience in talking to people about this down here in Cambridge is of having to restrain myself (something I'm not so good at on here since hey, you're all on the other end of anonymous keyboard land plus I know from experience that nobody ever really changes their opinion so it doesn't really matter whether I come across sarcastic or demonstrate the patience of a saint like Alf does, the only change is the tone of the reaction to my words, not the level of serious reflection upon them) as they go on about something along the lines of how the [insert nationality here]s ought to be shipped off.  I know it's only anecdotal so you'll dismiss it as imaginary or insignificant but the number of times the weight of the topic has been towards blanket removal as opposed to sensible control is legitimately worrying.  I'm pleased for you that you haven't met any of these people but - again, in my experience - they vastly outnumber the people with considered opinions who I've had the pleasure of talking to.

 

[Benguin]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1339211226112193&id=1028921237141195

 

really good little video from the great Dr Sam Harris about how unpractical political identity and compassing is. I know it's more of an American issue but I've found the video summarises a lot of what I've been feeling about people and political views over the past few years.

[Guest MattP]

11 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

That's kind of my point, we've welcomed them and benefited from it.  It's stupid to blame immigrants who on the whole have been an economic boon for us for the negative effects on the poorer areas of the country caused by self-serving policymaking by our politicians.

 

And yet my personal experience in talking to people about this down here in Cambridge is of having to restrain myself (something I'm not so good at on here since hey, you're all on the other end of anonymous keyboard land plus I know from experience that nobody ever really changes their opinion so it doesn't really matter whether I come across sarcastic or demonstrate the patience of a saint like Alf does, the only change is the tone of the reaction to my words, not the level of serious reflection upon them) as they go on about something along the lines of how the [insert nationality here]s ought to be shipped off.  I know it's only anecdotal so you'll dismiss it as imaginary or insignificant but the number of times the weight of the topic has been towards blanket removal as opposed to sensible control is legitimately worrying.  I'm pleased for you that you haven't met any of these people but - again, in my experience - they vastly outnumber the people with considered opinions who I've had the pleasure of talking to.

 

Immigration has not delivered an economic boom, that's a lie that get's spouted so so often and now goes unchallenged, there is a case for saying EU migration over a small period has been a boost (which wouldn't surprise me given it's mainly low skilled low wage jobs) but overall immigration has been very costly to Britain, to the tune of about 114billion, almost a quarter of what the natives have cost the taxpayer despite being proportionately far smaller.

 

Yes you've said numerous times about how many people you heard bashing immigrants during the campaign, but I'm not sure it carries much leeway given you stated in your other posts you think anything who wants to control borders is a bigot who wants to keep out "Johnny Foreigner".

 

Didn't hear any of it myself around here, but I'll take your word for it that you couldn't move for these people, Cambridge must be a lot rougher and less educated than it used to be.

[Buce]

That's a startling statistic, if taken at face value, Matt.

 

Is that figure public spending on those particular immigrant groups? If so, how is it arrived at?

[Guest MattP]

32 minutes ago, Buce said:

That's a startling statistic, if taken at face value, Matt.

 

Is that figure public spending on those particular immigrant groups? If so, how is it arrived at?

I'm on my phone now so I can't go back to the original article from the BBC but I'll get it for you later, it was from a couple of years ago

 

Andrew Neil is the only presenter I've seen have the bravery to bring up these figures on television, he used them once in an interview with Caroline Lucas when she was trotting out the usual lines and it ended with her crawling back and trying to claim she meant it was a positive social contribution society so money didn't matter whilst throwing in the usual anecdotes about how the NHS would collapse without foreign workers.

 

It does baffle me how the "immigrants make a positive economic contribution" argument is thrown about and never challenged, even by those on the right whose should actually be accountable for doing so, I can only to come to the conclusion it's the fear of the "ists" and "isms" that will come wth doing so, even if it's fact.

[Jon the Hat]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

I'm on my phone now so I can't go back to the original article from the BBC but I'll get it for you later, it was from a couple of years ago

 

Andrew Neil is the only presenter I've seen have the bravery to bring up these figures on television, he used them once in an interview with Caroline Lucas when she was trotting out the usual lines and it ended with her crawling back and trying to claim she meant it was a positive social contribution society so money didn't matter whilst throwing in the usual anecdotes about how the NHS would collapse without foreign workers.

 

It does baffle me how the "immigrants make a positive economic contribution" argument is thrown about and never challenged, even by those on the right whose should actually be accountable for doing so, I can only to come to the conclusion it's the fear of the "ists" and "isms" that will come wth doing so, even if it's fact.

Would be interesting to see the demographic breakdown of those two groups.  Ie is there a much high proportion of say women coming from india to marry who then have babies and claim income & child benefit support vs EEA immigrants who are you and single, and come and work only, at least for a while.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

Would be interesting to see the demographic breakdown of those two groups.  Ie is there a much high proportion of say women coming from india to marry who then have babies and claim income & child benefit support vs EEA immigrants who are you and single, and come and work only, at least for a while.

I'd imagine that would be a huge part of it, EEA migrants certainly have higher birth rates than anyone else and are more likely to be unemployed as well.

[Finnaldo]

Nicola Sturgeon announcing another independence referendum bill. That's ciao to Scotland then, no chance they'll stay this time.

[GazzinderFox]

14 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Nicola Sturgeon announcing another independence referendum bill. That's ciao to Scotland then, no chance they'll stay this time.

Them leaving is certainly on the cards, although in a public debate I'm very interested how they're going to make the 'we need to be independant of England so that we can be dependant on Europe' argument make sense.

[Guest MattP]

18 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Nicola Sturgeon announcing another independence referendum bill. That's ciao to Scotland then, no chance they'll stay this time.

I can't see it happening. The polls still show a comfortable lead for tehm staying in the Union - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling

 

The economic case for Scottish independence has died on it's arse, the white paper was a sham and despite the "huge" vote for staying in the European Union when you actually break it down more Scots voted to stay in the United Kingdom than the European one.

 

Although them leaving will certainly go some way to us clawing back the money we'll lose from leaving the single market.

[Finnaldo]

Just now, GazzinderFox said:

Them leaving is certainly on the cards, although in a public debate I'm very interested how they're going to make the 'we need to be independant of England so that we can be dependant on Europe' argument make sense.

 

To be honest they have every right to have a second indyref with such a stark change in situation and foreign policy. I'd hope they stay but with how the outcome of Brexit (all of Scotland voting to stay) they deserve a second referendum and if it comes to that you'd think it was a forgone conclusion that they'd be gone this time.

 

Being selfish, I'm hoping the bill gets quashed and they're in it with us.

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

Them leaving is certainly on the cards, although in a public debate I'm very interested how they're going to make the 'we need to be independant of England so that we can be dependant on Europe' argument make sense.

I can't wait for the financial explanation of how they are going to join the EU. I think a countries debt to GDP has to be <3% to be considered and Scotland's runs at about 10% now, the oil price isn't going to undergo a huge chance in the next few years.

 

They'll have to implement some pretty serious cuts for that to happen, which will make a mockery of the faux "anti-austerity" platform they stand on.

 

Just now, Finnaldo said:

To be honest they have every right to have a second indyref with such a stark change in situation and foreign policy. I'd hope they stay but with how the outcome of Brexit (all of Scotland voting to stay) they deserve a second referendum and if it comes to that you'd think it was a forgone conclusion that they'd be gone this time.

 

Being selfish, I'm hoping the bill gets quashed and they're in it with us.

Why do you think that when polls now show a bigger lead for a "No" vote than it did before the first referendum?

 

The SNP's vote share also went down in the Scottish elections, the Scots who were fanatical about EU membership will overwhelmingly the same ones who voted to leave the UK last time anyway. I think we've reached peak-ScotNat levels and yet again when it comes to voting day I'm sure most of them will realise which side their bread is buttered.

[Finnaldo]

Just now, MattP said:

I can't see it happening. The polls still show a comfortable lead for tehm staying in the Union - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling

 

The economic case for Scottish independence has died on it's arse, the white paper was a sham and despite the "huge" vote for staying in the European Union when you actually break it down more Scots voted to stay in the United Kingdom than the European one.

 

Although them leaving will certainly go some way to us clawing back the money we'll lose from leaving the single market.

 

That's pretty interesting Matt, I would of thought they'd be clawing to leave.

 

It makes for an interesting hypothetical situation though, if they were to leave and join the EU, I'd imagine we'd have to build a proper border between us and the Scots? How much would that cost? Who'd pay?

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Finnaldo said:

That's pretty interesting Matt, I would of thought they'd be clawing to leave.

 

It makes for an interesting hypothetical situation though, if they were to leave and join the EU, I'd imagine we'd have to build a proper border between us and the Scots? How much would that cost? Who'd pay?

Well if the Scots wanted to seperate the onus would be on them, although if it were to happen I would hope we would take a similar attitude to what the Irish are doing now and emphasise we have had an open border between the two countries for years, long before the EU existed and hope that can continue.

[GazzinderFox]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

I can't see it happening. The polls still show a comfortable lead for tehm staying in the Union - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling

 

The economic case for Scottish independence has died on it's arse, the white paper was a sham and despite the "huge" vote for staying in the European Union when you actually break it down more Scots voted to stay in the United Kingdom than the European one.

 

Although them leaving will certainly go some way to us clawing back the money we'll lose from leaving the single market.

Yeah, it's a real shame that the oil price didn't go belly up a year earlier. The margin would have been much larger in favour of no. A 2nd referendum wouldn't even be on the cards.

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

That's pretty interesting Matt, I would of thought they'd be clawing to leave.

 

It makes for an interesting hypothetical situation though, if they were to leave and join the EU, I'd imagine we'd have to build a proper border between us and the Scots? How much would that cost? Who'd pay?

I think the SNP might be "doing a Corbyn" here and just looking inwards, the "outrage" they will hear about will only be coming from their own MP's, voters and supporters, all of whom are clamouring for another indyref and will vote out whatever.

 

I doubt the vast majority of the Scottish people, in fact almost all those not SNP affiliated, give so much of a shit about the EU it would turn their vote on the Union.

 

[foxy boxing]

the snp will do whatever it takes to get and win a second independence referendum from the uk, the snp want to stay in europe but you can bet the eu will give them a kick up the backside if they win indeoendence and apply for eu membership.the eu will make it as hard for them as they are with threatening us who want to leave