USA President - time for a new poll

[Jimothy]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

 

Even if someone like Julian Clary came out 

Pretty sure that happened years ago.

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Pretty sure that happened years ago.

 

Speaking of Eddie Izzard, great news for the Tories is that Izzard is planning to be a Labour MP in 2020.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/eddie-izzard-comedian-who-plans-to-run-for-labour-talks-clothes-corbyn-and-cameron-a6900346.html

 

Hope he gets the Bradford West seat, I'd even go for the hustings to watch that.

[Guest MattP]

Back on topic, Trump now leads the polls in Florida, he has to win that to have a route to the Whitehouse.

 

The Tuesday debate on Sky News was as depressing at it gets, a Trump supporter who said "crooked Hillary" ten times and a Clinton supporter who said Trump supporters were all "uneducated and racist" - Not a single piece of policy discussed.

 

Whoever wins it will be good when this is over.

[Jimothy]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Back on topic, Trump now leads the polls in Florida, he has to win that to have a route to the Whitehouse.

 

The Tuesday debate on Sky News was as depressing at it gets, a Trump supporter who said "crooked Hillary" ten times and a Clinton supporter who said Trump supporters were all "uneducated and racist" - Not a single piece of policy discussed.

 

Whoever wins it will be good when this is over.

It's basically two election campaigns run on "Don't vote for them, they're shit!" rather than "Vote for me because I'll do (insert great policy here)"

 

Its a joke.

[GazzinderFox]

1 minute ago, Facecloth said:

It's basically two election campaigns run on "Don't vote for them, they're shit!" rather than "Vote for me because I'll do (insert great policy here)"

 

Its a joke.

This campaign has highlighted how much better our system of media restrictions during elections is. How many millions (or billions?) have been wasted on bare faced lies on TV, billboards and radio in the US?

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

This campaign has highlighted how much better our system of media restrictions during elections is. How many millions (or billions?) have been wasted on bare faced lies on TV, billboards and radio in the US?

This.

 

It's truly horrible.

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, MattP said:

Back on topic, Trump now leads the polls in Florida, he has to win that to have a route to the Whitehouse.

 

The Tuesday debate on Sky News was as depressing at it gets, a Trump supporter who said "crooked Hillary" ten times and a Clinton supporter who said Trump supporters were all "uneducated and racist" - Not a single piece of policy discussed.

 

Whoever wins it will be good when this is over.

He needs Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and one other to flip, and to hold onto Ohio.

 

But given everything going on...

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

He needs Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and one other to flip, and to hold onto Ohio.

 

But given everything going on...

Florida, North Carolina and a shock in Pennsylvania (best bet of the election for me, 3/1 on an area hugely white and working class going Republican that could make a mockery of the polls, could be the EU/Sunderland vote of the US election) would probably be enough to get him over the line without Colorado. (That's without Nevada and Iowa going for him as well)

 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Florida, North Carolina and a shock in Pennsylvania (best bet of the election for me, 3/1 on an area hugely white and working class going Republican that could make a mockery of the polls, could be the EU/Sunderland vote of the US election) would probably be enough to get him over the line without Colorado. (That's without Nevada and Iowa going for him as well)

 

Penn is never going Repub this time round, would give you much longer odds than 3/1 on it happening. Colorado more likely. But he definitely does need at least one of them.

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Penn is never going Repub this time round, would give you much longer odds than 3/1 on it happening. Colorado more likely. But he definitely does need at least one of them.

Go on!

 

I think that is going to be far closer than people expect, especially as pollsters are still weighting results based on demographics, that''s a state that will see a huge white working class turnout.

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Go on!

 

I think that is going to be far closer than people expect, especially as pollsters are still weighting results based on demographics, that''s a state that will see a huge white working class turnout.

£5 @ 5/1, donation to FT?

 

Clinton has an average 6 point lead, honestly cannot see the pollsters being that far wrong and women and minority voters staying at home that much there.

[foxy boxing]

it could be so close that the presidency could be decided in the American courts rather than at the ballot box. it could end up being the same situation as George W Bush against Al gore with many people being denied being able to vote particularly in swing states like florida

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

£5 @ 5/1, donation to FT?

 

Clinton has an average 6 point lead, honestly cannot see the pollsters being that far wrong and women and minority voters staying at home that much there.

 

The (friendly) gauntlet is thrown down....

 

Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! 

 

 

1 hour ago, foxy boxing said:

it could be so close that the presidency could be decided in the American courts rather than at the ballot box. it could end up being the same situation as George W Bush against Al gore with many people being denied being able to vote particularly in swing states like florida

 

About a week back, that Nate Silver 538 site described some scenario whereby the conservative independent, Evan McMullin, won Utah (possible, if unlikely, if polls are to be believed) and neither Trump nor Clinton got more than 270 electoral college votes.

He seemed to suggest that a Republican-majority Congress might then elect McMullin as President. 

 

I'm sure you'd still get very long odds against that scenario....but maybe not quite as long as they were a week ago....

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

£5 @ 5/1, donation to FT?

 

Clinton has an average 6 point lead, honestly cannot see the pollsters being that far wrong and women and minority voters staying at home that much there.

Very generous odds, I'll take that for the risk of fiver.

 

12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

About a week back, that Nate Silver 538 site described some scenario whereby the conservative independent, Evan McMullin, won Utah (possible, if unlikely, if polls are to be believed) and neither Trump nor Clinton got more than 270 electoral college votes.

He seemed to suggest that a Republican-majority Congress might then elect McMullin as President. 

 

I'm sure you'd still get very long odds against that scenario....but maybe not quite as long as they were a week ago....

That would be something quite incredible, certainly the biggest political shock in history.

 

Would the Republican's do that? If they would it's certainly worth a couple of quid at 500/1? The odds suggest it's more likely even Mike Pence or Paul Ryan would be the next President than him

[MPH]

2 hours ago, Facecloth said:

It's basically two election campaigns run on "Don't vote for them, they're shit!" rather than "Vote for me because I'll do (insert great policy here)"

 

Its a joke.

 

 

Welcome to American politics. To some extent, its been the same for every election i have been here- even local elections. As far as i am concerned its more indicative of how  they are both power hungry and both desperate for the top job rather than interested in actually representing the people...

[leicsmac]

33 minutes ago, MattP said:

Very generous odds, I'll take that for the risk of fiver.

 

So be it. Guess we'll see what happens next week!

[Alf Bentley]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

That would be something quite incredible, certainly the biggest political shock in history.

 

Would the Republican's do that? If they would it's certainly worth a couple of quid at 500/1? The odds suggest it's more likely even Mike Pence or Paul Ryan would be the next President than him

 

I have only a superficial understanding of US politics, but assume it falls into the category of "theoretically possible but democratically impossible" - a bit like the UK parliament voting to reject the "advice" of the EU referendum.

 

Like the latter scenario, it would surely be viewed as a democratic outrage by millions of Americans, with the potential for civil unrest on all sides, but particularly among Trump supporters if the Republican hierarchy deprived him of the presidency.

 

Mathematically and constitutionally it is possible, according to Nate Silver. Utah has 6 votes, which could conceivably be won by "McMuffin" and the race is close enough that Trump & Clinton could both then fail to get across the 270 winning line.

In that scenario, I understand that Congress decides who'll be President. If it's that close, then I presume that there'd also be a Republican Congress, which could appoint McMuffin...but is more likely to appoint Trump, I presume. What would happen if the Democrats controlled the Senate, I'm not sure....even greater gridlock than usual? 

[MPH]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

£5 @ 5/1, donation to FT?

 

Clinton has an average 6 point lead, honestly cannot see the pollsters being that far wrong and women and minority voters staying at home that much there.

 

 

ABC poll out today has Trump  1 point ahead...

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

 

ABC poll out today has Trump  1 point ahead...

 Average of polls for Penn (which is where our bet is concerning) by RCP shows Clinton with six point lead. Nate Silver also projecting 85/15 in favour of her for that state, which is close enough for a 5/1 bet for my mind.

[MPH]

18 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 Average of polls for Penn (which is where our bet is concerning) by RCP shows Clinton with six point lead. Nate Silver also projecting 85/15 in favour of her for that state, which is close enough for a 5/1 bet for my mind.

 

 

yeah this was a national poll not a penn poll. Also had him ahead in Florida which is a key battle ground...

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

 

yeah this was a national poll not a penn poll. Also had him ahead in Florida which is a key battle ground...

Right. As discussed above, he needs Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and one other to flip, and to hold onto Ohio.

 

Getting either NC or Penn will be the tough part.

[Detroit Blues]

17 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I have only a superficial understanding of US politics, but assume it falls into the category of "theoretically possible but democratically impossible" - a bit like the UK parliament voting to reject the "advice" of the EU referendum.

 

Like the latter scenario, it would surely be viewed as a democratic outrage by millions of Americans, with the potential for civil unrest on all sides, but particularly among Trump supporters if the Republican hierarchy deprived him of the presidency.

 

Mathematically and constitutionally it is possible, according to Nate Silver. Utah has 6 votes, which could conceivably be won by "McMuffin" and the race is close enough that Trump & Clinton could both then fail to get across the 270 winning line.

In that scenario, I understand that Congress decides who'll be President. If it's that close, then I presume that there'd also be a Republican Congress, which could appoint McMuffin...but is more likely to appoint Trump, I presume. What would happen if the Democrats controlled the Senate, I'm not sure....even greater gridlock than usual? 

 

You're talking about congress, which is both the House of Representatives and the Senate. But in this scenario, only the House selects the president.

 

But wait, it gets more complicated! Each state gets one single vote that they can cast among the top vote getting candidates. So California (55 electoral votes), would be worth the same as Montana (3 electoral votes). So as long as a majority of the representatives from each state can agree on a candidate, they would get to give that candidate a single vote. If for example Utah was split 2 representatives for Trump and 2 for McMullin, then Utah would not cast a vote.

.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that this election would end in 269-269 tie, or that McMullin might steal some electoral votes. Nate silver has a contingency election at 1.2% of happening. If it does happen, there will certainly be recounts, and protests against this archaic system, but I have faith that the contingency plans would go on unimpeded. 

 

Oh and the Senate gets to choose the VP. So Trump - Kaine or Clinton - Pence could happen. 

 

 

[MPH]

12 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Right. As discussed above, he needs Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and one other to flip, and to hold onto Ohio.

 

Getting either NC or Penn will be the tough part.

 

 

The recent shooting and  subsequent riots in Charlotte will not of helped him much...

[Sharpe's Fox]

[SMX11]

Appears North Carolina is Trump's based on latest polling. The two I saw last night had him tied in one and +7 in another!