General Election, June 8th

[Guest MattP]

24 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I'm not sure on your Brexit stance, but you left out the most interesting and significant poll..

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/majority-british-voters-brexit-wrong-decision-yougov-poll-finds-a7704566.html

 

A majority of British voters believe Brexit was the wrong decision, according to a new poll taken 10 days after Theresa May called a snap election. 

The YouGov/Times survey found 43 per cent of voters believe Britain was right to vote to leave the EU. 

However, 45 per cent of the 1,590 surveyed said they thought it was the wrong decision. 

 

 

Back to about what they were on referendum day

 

On a serious note though they have done a few of these and I'm surprised this didn't happen earlier, on something that was a 52-48 split when you are polling 1,000-1,500 you are bound to get results that throw up a win for both sides.

[Facecloth]

32 minutes ago, MattP said:

Fair enough, if you check my profile you'll see player ratings aside I didn't post.

 

I promise I'll be on with whatever the polls on Sunday morning!

I expect them Saturday  

[davieG]

Edward Garnier not standing at the GE.

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, davieG said:

Edward Garnier not standing at the GE.

 

My former MP from Oadby days.

 

Never voted for him, obviously, but he always struck me as one of the better Tories - prepared to think for himself, not just follow the party line.

I wrote to him a couple of times (can't remember what about) and got proper, considered replies....though maybe he just employed some good staff, if I'm being cynical.

 

Eleanor Garnier, the BBC journalist, is his daughter, I believe.....typical BBC anti-Tory bias... 

[Footballwipe]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

My former MP from Oadby days.

 

Never voted for him, obviously, but he always struck me as one of the better Tories - prepared to think for himself, not just follow the party line.

I wrote to him a couple of times (can't remember what about) and got proper, considered replies....though maybe he just employed some good staff, if I'm being cynical.

 

Eleanor Garnier, the BBC journalist, is his daughter, I believe.....typical BBC anti-Tory bias... 

No, wait, isn't this proof of the BBC's rabid Tory bias in their smear and anti-Corbyn campaign?

 

Oh I can't keep up with who the BBC try and make me support these days 

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Footballwipe said:

No, wait, isn't this proof of the BBC's rabid Tory bias in their smear and anti-Corbyn campaign?

 

Oh I can't keep up with who the BBC try and make me support these days 

 

Exactly. If people on both Left and Right accuse them of bias for the other side, maybe they're not too far off providing a fair balance?

 

They might not be perfect, but we could do a lot worse. If anything they fence-sit a bit too much in their analysis (though news reporting should be politically neutral).

It seems to be a minority stance these days, but I think the BBC is a valuable (if imperfect) asset that we should think twice about rubbishing.

[Facecloth]

17 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

My former MP from Oadby days.

 

Never voted for him, obviously, but he always struck me as one of the better Tories - prepared to think for himself, not just follow the party line.

I wrote to him a couple of times (can't remember what about) and got proper, considered replies....though maybe he just employed some good staff, if I'm being cynical.

 

Eleanor Garnier, the BBC journalist, is his daughter, I believe.....typical BBC anti-Tory bias... 

Actually wasn't it Garnier that interviewed Farron when he gave his infamous gay sex being a sin remarks?

 

Damn BBC and their left wing bias not asking Lib Dems questions that might make them look bad......oh wait.

[Guest]

If you listen really carefully, you can hear Thracian's head exploding.

[Guest MattP]

A couple of thoughts,

 

I really do wish people would people would still making comparisons between the polls now and those on Brexit and Trump, aside from still being well within the margin of error the latter two were considered total guesswork that we weren't going to be able to say were correct or incorrect until the vote as they were the first time they were going to be put any to any scrutiny.

 

We already have some pretty hard evidence that the polling for the election is correct unlike the other two,

 

They lost Copeland just a month ago, a seat they have held since the 1930's. (-4.9%)

Labour vote share down in by-election in Stoke (-2.2%)

Labour vote share down in by election in Sleatham (-7.1%)

Labour vote share down in by-election in Richmond Park (-8%)

Labour vote share down in by-election in Witney (-2.2%)

 

The only gains Labour have made were before the middle of 2016 in Ogmore, Tooting and Oldham (when polling was closer) or Batley and Spen where there was no opposition, even around these times Corbyn still had a pretty poor effort in the council elections.

 

 

This Week is well worth a watch from last night (it is even week actually, probably my favourite show on television), Giles Fraser was on pitching the case for Corbyn and for the first time someone actually admitted that he was prepared for society to be poorer if he was elected providing that it meant that we were more equal, I thought it was very honest and commendable that he admitted it.

[Buce]

28 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

My former MP from Oadby days.

 

Never voted for him, obviously, but he always struck me as one of the better Tories - prepared to think for himself, not just follow the party line.

I wrote to him a couple of times (can't remember what about) and got proper, considered replies....though maybe he just employed some good staff, if I'm being cynical.

 

Eleanor Garnier, the BBC journalist, is his daughter, I believe.....typical BBC anti-Tory bias... 

 

My current MP.

 

You obvious enjoyed a different experience to me, Alf. I've written to him on several occasions (usually in support of 38 degrees campaigns) and received nothing but generic replies from his lackey.

[Alf Bentley]

Presumably broadcasters have rules or monitoring to avoid/tackle potential bias where particular journalists have connections to particular parties?

 

There are quite a few:

- Sarah Smith, daughter of former Labour leader, John Smith

- Eleanor Garnier, daughter of outgoing Tory MP, Sir Edward

- Andrew Marr, married to daughter of Labour MP, Jack Ashley

- Nick Robinson, leading Young Conservative & President of Oxford Uni Tories 

etc.

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

My current MP.

 

You obvious enjoyed a different experience to me, Alf. I've written to him on several occasions (usually in support of 38 degrees campaigns) and received nothing but generic replies from his lackey.

 

To be honest, I'd never heard of 38 Degrees....is that just me?

From Wikipedia, it sounds as if the campaign has made itself unpopular among MPs by some of the content and methods of its campaigns: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/38_Degrees#Criticism

I've no idea whether or not that criticism is justified.

 

Alternatively, maybe he's just got old and jaded....happens to a few of us! 

We were in Oadby 2001-2006, so quite a while back.

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

A couple of thoughts,

 

I really do wish people would people would still making comparisons between the polls now and those on Brexit and Trump, aside from still being well within the margin of error the latter two were considered total guesswork that we weren't going to be able to say were correct or incorrect until the vote as they were the first time they were going to be put any to any scrutiny.

 

We already have some pretty hard evidence that the polling for the election is correct unlike the other two,

 

They lost Copeland just a month ago, a seat they have held since the 1930's. (-4.9%)

Labour vote share down in by-election in Stoke (-2.2%)

Labour vote share down in by election in Sleatham (-7.1%)

Labour vote share down in by-election in Richmond Park (-8%)

Labour vote share down in by-election in Witney (-2.2%)

 

The only gains Labour have made were before the middle of 2016 in Ogmore, Tooting and Oldham (when polling was closer) or Batley and Spen where there was no opposition, even around these times Corbyn still had a pretty poor effort in the council elections.

 

 

This Week is well worth a watch from last night (it is even week actually, probably my favourite show on television), Giles Fraser was on pitching the case for Corbyn and for the first time someone actually admitted that he was prepared for society to be poorer if he was elected providing that it meant that we were more equal, I thought it was very honest and commendable that he admitted it.

 

You're preaching to the converted, Matt.

 

Even the most optimistic, most die-hard Labour supporters, can see how things are.

[Guest MattP]

I still stand by my opinion that the BBC had a bias but over the last few years though they have been impeccable, the coverage of the EU referendum was way beyond what I had hoped. Andrew Marr probably explains it better being a liberal bias rather than a left wing one and that's because of where they are based, you won't be able to bring across the opinion of a Sunderland working class community when the organisation is based in London.
 

Quote

“The BBC is not impartial or neutral. It’s a publicly funded, urban organisation with an abnormally large number of young people, ethnic minorities, and gay people. It has a liberal bias, not so much a party political bias. It is better expressed as a cultural liberal bias.”

The quote in here which a quite a good read, they do still have an obsession with the Guardian judging by where they advertise and how many copies they buy of it compared to the other newspapers -  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/9475479/Heres-how-we-counter-the-BBCs-liberal-bias.html

 

There was a rumour in the Spectator that not a single person working on Newsnight had voted leave but in the next issue they clarified it had been rounded upto one.

[Buce]

21 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

To be honest, I'd never heard of 38 Degrees....is that just me?

From Wikipedia, it sounds as if the campaign has made itself unpopular among MPs by some of the content and methods of its campaigns: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/38_Degrees#Criticism

I've no idea whether or not that criticism is justified.

 

Alternatively, maybe he's just got old and jaded....happens to a few of us! 

We were in Oadby 2001-2006, so quite a while back.

 

I'd recommend you registering with them, Alf. They are actually a really effective pressure group (having had several notable successes) and campaign for some issues, I am certain you would support.

 

And they are completely non-political.

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I'd recommend you registering with them, Alf. They are actually a really effective pressure group (having had several notable successes) and campaign for issues that I am certain you would support.

 

And they are completely non-political.

 

I'll keep an eye out for what they're doing, Buce.

[Buce]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I'll keep an eye out for what they're doing, Buce.

 

Addendum.

 

You will note that the criticism comes from government MPs; you might take that as a sign of their effectiveness.

 

https://home.38degrees.org.uk/campaigns/?types[]=campaigns

 

 

[Voll Blau]

Garnier's a perfectly polite guy from the limited experience I have of meeting him in person - though my old man did once hide in the toilet to avoid talking to him when he came doorknocking in '97. 

 

Shame he never bothered to actual have a house in the constituency mind.

 

It's going to be a Tory in Harborough, so hope it's at least a local Tory who gets picked. Though, given it was the tightest constituency in the county in terms of the referendum vote, there might be a bit of a Lib Dem resurgence?

[Buce]

1 minute ago, Voll Blau said:

Garnier's a perfectly polite guy from the limited experience I have of meeting him in person - though my old man did once hide in the toilet to avoid talking to him when he came doorknocking in '97. 

 

Shame he never btoehred to actual have a house in the constituency mind.

 

It's going to be a Tory in Harborough, so hope it's at least a local Tory who gets picked. Though, given it was the tightest constituency in the county in terms of the referendum vote, there might be a bit of a Lib Dem resurgence?

 

I wasn't aware of that.

 

Perhaps my vote might have some value after all.

[Alf Bentley]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

I still stand by my opinion that the BBC had a bias but over the last few years though they have been impeccable, the coverage of the EU referendum was way beyond what I had hoped. Andrew Marr probably explains it better being a liberal bias rather than a left wing one and that's because of where they are based, you won't be able to bring across the opinion of a Sunderland working class community when the organisation is based in London.
 

The quote in here which a quite a good read, they do still have an obsession with the Guardian judging by where they advertise and how many copies they buy of it compared to the other newspapers -  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/9475479/Heres-how-we-counter-the-BBCs-liberal-bias.html

 

 

Your criticism of the lack of working-class Sunderland Brexit voices in journalism is fair, even if such voices are heard in vox pop reporting.

But that's a class access issue, not political bias, I think. It's not as if the BBC is full of working-class northern voices advocating left-wing trade unionism, either.

Doesn't make it right, of course - and, particular with modern communications, it should be quite easy for them to get more working-class journalistic voices, whatever their political views.

 

Hannan's article dates from 2012, so not sure how relevant it is. Particularly as I've seen Hannan on the BBC loads of times, being quite an articulate advocate for right-wing Eurosceptic politics.

The bit about the newspapers bought is a bit unclear: as I understand it in 2012 they were buying about 40k-50k copies of most papers, but just under 60k copies of the Guardian?

Hardly a massive difference and hardly surprising. You'd expect a serious broadcaster to concentrate on the broadsheets (not Sun, Mail, Mirror) & there are 2 major broadsheets on the Right (Times & Telegraph), whereas the Indie didn't have that status by 2012, though it might have done in the 1990s. So the Guardian was effectively on its own on the Left (FT is a bit out on its own, specialising in business/economics & moving around a bit politically). 

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

I wasn't aware of that.

 

Perhaps my vote might have some value after all.

Yeah, 50.7% plays 49.2%.

 

Everywhere else outside the city had a much higher proportion voting leave.

[Alf Bentley]

22 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I wasn't aware of that.

 

Perhaps my vote might have some value after all.

 

I voted tactically for the Lib Dems in Harborough in 2005 - and Garnier's majority was less than 4000.

 

It would take a massive surge for the Lib Dems to take Harborough, but it isn't completely out of the question, particularly with a new Tory candidate.

 

Because of Brexit, I reckon we could see the swing diverging massively between different seats this time.

Depends partly on the campaign and Brexit events in the coming week. But, compared to last time, the Tories might do well in strongly working-class seats, but not in prosperous Remain-voting seats.

 

Quite a lot of leafy Tory seats in the Home Counties voted Remain, too.

Maybe we'll end up with a Tory MP in Sunderland, but not in Tunbridge Wells?! Not quite, but....

 

I'm sure Harborough will stay Tory unless there's a big change in the polls - a Lib Dem surge in a Brexit election with some bad news about Brexit during the campaign, maybe? 

I'd expect the Tories to get a smaller majority there, though.

[Guest MattP]

12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Your criticism of the lack of working-class Sunderland Brexit voices in journalism is fair, even if such voices are heard in vox pop reporting.

But that's a class access issue, not political bias, I think. It's not as if the BBC is full of working-class northern voices advocating left-wing trade unionism, either.

Doesn't make it right, of course - and, particular with modern communications, it should be quite easy for them to get more working-class journalistic voices, whatever their political views.

 

Hannan's article dates from 2012, so not sure how relevant it is. Particularly as I've seen Hannan on the BBC loads of times, being quite an articulate advocate for right-wing Eurosceptic politics.

The bit about the newspapers bought is a bit unclear: as I understand it in 2012 they were buying about 40k-50k copies of most papers, but just under 60k copies of the Guardian?

Hardly a massive difference and hardly surprising. You'd expect a serious broadcaster to concentrate on the broadsheets (not Sun, Mail, Mirror) & there are 2 major broadsheets on the Right (Times & Telegraph), whereas the Indie didn't have that status by 2012, though it might have done in the 1990s. So the Guardian was effectively on its own on the Left (FT is a bit out on its own, specialising in business/economics & moving around a bit politically). 

Apologies, I googled the Marr quote to find a link to it and didn't check the date. I didn't realise it was from 2012 so you are right, no relevance really to now.

 

9 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Yeah, 50.7% plays 49.2%.

 

Everywhere else outside the city had a much higher proportion voting leave.

The EU referendum isn't playing that big a part so far in the election though is it to turn seats like this? Virtually every Tory remainer I've spoken to is still going to vote Conservative and you need a big chuck of those to go Liberal to win in the FPTP system.

 

Harborough is an interesting seat, the Liberals did very well in 2005 and had Jill Hope been standing again in 2010 she might even have pushed him out, Zuffar Haq took over and bucking the national trend a lot of the Liberal vote seemed to go to the Conservatives, the in 2015 it totally collapsed.

 

It looks rock solid Tory hold to me, you would need a Richmond Park style swing to take it.

[Guest MattP]

Singles Only. Applies to the party of the winner of the constituency at the next general election. Party must be stated on ballot. Bets void should a by election be held before it. All in, run or not. Others on request.

Harborough Hide

Conservative 1/200

Labour 33/1

UKIP 33/1

Green 33/1

Liberal Democrat 33/1

[Footballwipe]

The Lib Dem vote is surely propped up in Harborough by Oadby, which is a Lib Dem strongzone and they "control" (if you can bring yourself to use that word literally) Oadby & Wigston Council.

 

I heard that the Labour candidate for Harborough in 1997 had one of the largest swings in the region - and came third, which seems to highlight just how much work they, and the other parties have for themselves to even consider a challenge, though as people have pointed out LD have come close.