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Harry - LCFC

General Election, June 8th

By Harry - LCFC, in General Chat

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Voll Blau

Voll Blau

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MattP said:

Apologies, I googled the Marr quote to find a link to it and didn't check the date. I didn't realise it was from 2012 so you are right, no relevance really to now.

 

The EU referendum isn't playing that big a part so far in the election though is it to turn seats like this? Virtually every Tory remainer I've spoken to is still going to vote Conservative and you need a big chuck of those to go Liberal to win in the FPTP system.

 

Harborough is an interesting seat, the Liberals did very well in 2005 and had Jill Hope been standing again in 2010 she might even have pushed him out, Zuffar Haq took over and bucking the national trend a lot of the Liberal vote seemed to go to the Conservatives, the in 2015 it totally collapsed.

 

It looks rock solid Tory hold to me, you would need a Richmond Park style swing to take it.

Yeah, Jill Hope was (possibly still is? Haven't lived in MH for several years now so not as switched on as I used to be) popular locally. Haq was really disappointing. Was the first GE I could vote in and he really didn't turn up at a time when the LDs should have been going all out for places like Harborough.

 

Blake Pain will no doubt be after this for the Tories.

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Footballwipe

Footballwipe

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Yeah, Jill Hope was (possibly still is? Haven't lived in MH for several years now so not as switched on as I used to be) popular locally. Haq was really disappointing. Was the first GE I could vote in and he really didn't turn up at a time when the LDs should have been going all out Harborough.

 

Blake Pain will no doubt be after this for the Tories.

Is it more likely they'll someone in as it's so safe, just like they did twice in 2015? Come to think of it, most of the city/county is made up of parachuted candidates, there are barely any with local links which I always find a shame.

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Voll Blau said:

Yeah, Jill Hope was (possibly still is? Haven't lived in MH for several years now so not as switched on as I used to be) popular locally. Haq was really disappointing. Was the first GE I could vote in and he really didn't turn up at a time when the LDs should have been going all out Harborough.

 

Blake Pain will no doubt be after this for the Tories.

Blake Pain? Sounds like a wrestler rather than a politician.

 

There is a great read here from the Guardian on why the Lib Dems shouldn't coun too much on picking up Remain voters - https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak

Quote

To understand the results, let’s imagine 100 perfectly representative Remain voters. 31 of them voted Conservative in the last election, 37 for Labour, 13 for the Lib Dems and 2, oddly, for UKIP. One of the Tories has switched to the Lib Dems, but the Conservatives have gained one each from Labour and UKIP – in other words, the Tories are gaining Remain voters, not losing them as some might assume. The Lib Dems are gaining too, but mostly from Labour.

 

Most of the Lib Dem action should be in the South, if even a fraction of UKIP votes go to the Tories Lib Dem politicians like Tom Brake will be out, even Farron isn't totally safe in his seat, I think they'll win Twickenham and Bermondsey but places like Richmond Park could just as easilt go back to the Conservatives.

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted

The Lib Dems actually polled more votes in Harborough in 2010 than in 2005, though a slightly smaller percentage on a higher turnout.....before crashing in 2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harborough_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Garnier's bigger majority in 2010 was due more to Labour's decline.

 

Those Harborough odds that Matt has quoted sound about right for the Tories (1-200), but putting the Lib Dems, Labour, UKIP and the Greens all at 33-1 is a bit clueless.

Lab, Greens & UKIP should all be much longer odds and the Lib Dems a bit shorter, I'd say. I wouldn't waste money on a bet as I'm sure the Tory will win, but if you have a couple of quid spare, 33-1 on the Lib Dems is a bit generous.

 

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Voll Blau

Voll Blau

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Footballwipe said:

The Lib Dem vote is surely propped up in Harborough by Oadby, which is a Lib Dem strongzone and they "control" (if you can bring yourself to use that word literally) Oadby & Wigston Council.

 

I heard that the Labour candidate for Harborough in 1997 had one of the largest swings in the region - and came third, which seems to highlight just how much work they, and the other parties have for themselves to even consider a challenge, though as people have pointed out LD have come close.

Largely true, but Harborough town itself also has everal Lib Dem councillors as well as the eastern suburbs of Leicester which form part of the constituency. All the villages are, as expected, Tory.

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Buce

Buce

Posted
Posted

 

This time it's a homophobic Tory standing down:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/28/tory-mp-steps-down-after-telling-pupils-homosexuality-is-wrong

 

A long-serving Conservative MP has said he will not stand in the general election, just hours after A-level students revealed he had told them that he believed “homosexuality is wrong” and “dangerous to society”.

Andrew Turner, who has represented the Isle of Wight since 2001, made the comments during a question and answer session at Christ the King College in Newport. One student describing herself as a “passionate campaigner for LGBT rights” asked her local MP if he was involved in the Isle of Wight’s first ever Pride event.

In a post on Facebook, Esther Poucher said she was shocked to the point of outrage by Turner’s response. “He told us that he’d been invited, but wasn’t intending to go. This is because (and this is a direct quote) he thinks that homosexuality is ‘wrong’ and “dangerous to society’,” she wrote.

“At this answer, I had to leave. It’s terrifying that in this age and point in our development as a society, there are still people that can’t care enough about a person’s wellbeing to just accept who they are. And the most terrifying thing is that we as an island consistently vote him in to represent us.”

 
 
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theessexfox

theessexfox

Posted
Posted

I'll probably vote for the party who is most likely to deliver electoral reform, which is ironic really, as the electoral system means that that will be a wasted vote. It's no wonder turnout is so low, many people of my age I speak to who can now vote for the first time don't see the point, as their vote is wasted in a safe seat under FPTP.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

I'll probably vote for the party who is most likely to deliver electoral reform, which is ironic really, as the electoral system means that that will be a wasted vote. It's no wonder turnout is so low, many people of my age I speak to who can now vote for the first time don't see the point, as their vote is wasted in a safe seat under FPTP.

Can't give you enough credit for this point. FPTP is a dreadful, and frankly undemocratic, system. 

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Sharpe's Fox

Sharpe's Fox

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

This time it's a homophobic Tory standing down:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/28/tory-mp-steps-down-after-telling-pupils-homosexuality-is-wrong

 

A long-serving Conservative MP has said he will not stand in the general election, just hours after A-level students revealed he had told them that he believed “homosexuality is wrong” and “dangerous to society”.

Andrew Turner, who has represented the Isle of Wight since 2001, made the comments during a question and answer session at Christ the King College in Newport. One student describing herself as a “passionate campaigner for LGBT rights” asked her local MP if he was involved in the Isle of Wight’s first ever Pride event.

In a post on Facebook, Esther Poucher said she was shocked to the point of outrage by Turner’s response. “He told us that he’d been invited, but wasn’t intending to go. This is because (and this is a direct quote) he thinks that homosexuality is ‘wrong’ and “dangerous to society’,” she wrote.

“At this answer, I had to leave. It’s terrifying that in this age and point in our development as a society, there are still people that can’t care enough about a person’s wellbeing to just accept who they are. And the most terrifying thing is that we as an island consistently vote him in to represent us.”

 
 

unyiuuv.jpg

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

I'll probably vote for the party who is most likely to deliver electoral reform, which is ironic really, as the electoral system means that that will be a wasted vote. It's no wonder turnout is so low, many people of my age I speak to who can now vote for the first time don't see the point, as their vote is wasted in a safe seat under FPTP.

It's the one issue I'm totally torn on. Especially as I would love the Tory/UKIP coalition it would bring. 

 

It's clear PR is far fairer but I also love the fact the public can directly kick out MP's rather than them just being selected by the party.

 

The Portillo/Balls moments are the things you never forget from election nights.

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theessexfox

theessexfox

Posted
Posted
Just now, MattP said:

It's the one issue I'm totally torn on. Especially as I would love the Tory/UKIP coalition it would bring. 

 

It's clear PR is far fairer but I also love the fact the public can directly kick out MP's rather than them just being selected by the party.

 

The Portillo/Balls moments are the things you never forget from election nights.

The way I see it is that if we were designing an electoral system from scratch now, I don't think FPTP would be anywhere near what we'd come up with. Additional Member System (AMS), used in Welsh Assembly elections amongst others, retains the constituency element (still some fun times seeing bad MPs kicked out) with a top up from the party list to make it more proportionate, arguably combining the best elements of FPTP and PR. That's what I'd go for, although STV used widely in Northern Ireland is favoured by the Electoral Reform Society. 

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theessexfox

theessexfox

Posted
Posted

In addition, Conservatives like Cameron dismiss the idea of electoral reform, arguing that we voted on it in 2011 and we rejected it. What we were offered, AV, is often even less proportionate than FPTP - a concession to Clegg that was probably worse than not having the referendum at all. 

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

To be honest I think it's a moot point anyway. 

 

It would need a referendum to change the system and don't think there is a chance the public would go for it.

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The Doctor

The Doctor

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MattP said:

To be honest I think it's a moot point anyway. 

 

It would need a referendum to change the system and don't think there is a chance the public would go for it.

It's already had a referendum a few years back - the lib dems put forward some wishy-washy AV and the turnout barely topped 30% iirc.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

It's already had a referendum a few years back - the lib dems put forward some wishy-washy AV and the turnout barely topped 30% iirc.

I think the fact that the Brexit vote saw people's vote actually mattering for the first time was a wake up for voters - perhaps a proper PR option would gain more traction that the ridiculous AV offered in the last referendum.

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Buce

Buce

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, toddybad said:

I think the fact that the Brexit vote saw people's vote actually mattering for the first time was a wake up for voters - perhaps a proper PR option would gain more traction that the ridiculous AV offered in the last referendum.

 

When the govt has the most to lose by changing the system, you know it's not going to happen.

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Strokes

Strokes

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

When the govt has the most to lose by changing the system, you know it's not going to happen.

That will always be the case, whoever is in charge, they will be there because of the current system.

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Buce

Buce

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Strokes said:

That will always be the case, whoever is in charge, they will be there because of the current system.

 

Of course.

 

Which is why I said the govt, not the Tories.

 

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