Brexit!

[bovril]

So we've got to the point where the Conservatives will be campaigning on food shortages and the breakup of the union.

[Jon the Hat]

4 minutes ago, bovril said:

So we've got to the point where the Conservatives will be campaigning on food shortages and the breakup of the union.

Possible short term shortages of some fresh items which will be easily substituted like everyone does every time something is out of stock.

Possible breakup of the Union.  I doubt it though, Scotland would struggle to leave.

[Guest MattP]

12 minutes ago, bovril said:

So we've got to the point where the Conservatives will be campaigning on food shortages and the breakup of the union.

Or campaigning to prove it's all total bullshit, depends on your viewpoint.

 

As for the Union, the opposition is led by a supporter of a united Ireland and has a shadow chancellor open to another Scottish referendum, so the public can decide which party is supporting the United Kingdom on that.

[Guest MattP]

Oh baby.

 

Can you imagine what these ratings will be after the government of remain stitch up as well?

[bovril]

57 minutes ago, MattP said:

Or campaigning to prove it's all total bullshit, depends on your viewpoint.

 

The government have published assessments stating there may be disruption to food supplies and increase in tensions in N. Ireland, so then campaigning that that is bullshit would be odd. But we live in interesting times. 

[LiberalFox]

59 minutes ago, MattP said:

Oh baby.

 

Can you imagine what these ratings will be after the government of remain stitch up as well?

You know that's a fake poll? 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

You know that's a fake poll? 

I didn't. Oh well I got a twitch looking at it.

[Guest MattP]

54 minutes ago, bovril said:

The government have published assessments stating there may be disruption to food supplies and increase in tensions in N. Ireland, so then campaigning that that is bullshit would be odd. But we live in interesting times. 

Yep. Absolutely worst case scenario we may have disruption to supplies.

[Leicester_Loyal]

I always thought the speaker was meant to be impartial

[Guest MattP]

34 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I always thought the speaker was meant to be impartial

One of the most important things for our democracy in the next parliament is restoring the reputation of the speaker being impartial. 

 

Not only that you are impartial, but all sides of the house and all sides of public opinion see you as impartial.

 

I don't know whether it can be done but some sort of legal legislation hopefully forcing them to abide by Erskine May precedent, rather than leaving it upto the speaker so ones like Bercow can abuse it as he sees fit.

[Jon the Hat]

5 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I always thought the speaker was meant to be impartial

He should be arrested.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

He should be arrested.

 

Perhaps he and Boris could share a cell? 

[Alf Bentley]

This is interesting.... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7555503/Tory-moderates-say-Boris-Johnson-does-not-want-Tories-campaign-No-Deal-Brexit.html

 

"One Nation Tory moderates believe they have won a concession from Boris Johnson that the party will not campaign for a No deal Brexit at the upcoming general election.

Amid reports that scores of backbenchers could quit in a revolt over the hardline tactic a group led by ex-Minister Damian Green met the Prime Minister in Downing Street today.

• Nicky Morgan, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox are all on Number 10's quit list
• Downing Street also believes Robert Buckland and Julian Smith could resign"

If we end up with an election (likely, I presume), after the 31/10 deadline has been missed & the Tories don't advocate No Deal, that's going to bring Farage right back front stage, won't it?

Hopefully making the Leave vote as divided as the Remain vote.... 

 

Of course, there is the little problem that nobody can trust a word Boris says. 

[Guest MattP]

1959 election on BBC parliament right now.

 

Jeremy Thorpe just been elected by North Devon having ran in the words of the BBC presenter "a very gay campaign" - wonderful wording in hindsight. 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

This is interesting.... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7555503/Tory-moderates-say-Boris-Johnson-does-not-want-Tories-campaign-No-Deal-Brexit.html

 

"One Nation Tory moderates believe they have won a concession from Boris Johnson that the party will not campaign for a No deal Brexit at the upcoming general election.

Amid reports that scores of backbenchers could quit in a revolt over the hardline tactic a group led by ex-Minister Damian Green met the Prime Minister in Downing Street today.

• Nicky Morgan, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox are all on Number 10's quit list
• Downing Street also believes Robert Buckland and Julian Smith could resign"

If we end up with an election (likely, I presume), after the 31/10 deadline has been missed & the Tories don't advocate No Deal, that's going to bring Farage right back front stage, won't it?

Hopefully making the Leave vote as divided as the Remain vote.... 

 

Of course, there is the little problem that nobody can trust a word Boris says. 

It's a pretty big problem for Boris but realistically he can't run on a platform of no deal - he'll surely be running on the deal he has put down now or no deal when the time comes though and I don't think the ONT can demand anything other than that. 

 

We could end up on exactly the same position as now, facing down departing and just a different group of rebel Tories blocking it.

 

On his own deal he does appear to have the numbers in parliament according to the Times -

 

For:

Tory 277

Ind 22

Labour 20

DUP 10

 

Against

 

Labour 224

Conservative 10

SNP 35

Lib Dems 18

Ind 13

Others 10

 

329-310

 

Just obviously a shame it won't get past the EU!

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's a pretty big problem for Boris but realistically he can't run on a platform of no deal - he'll surely be running on the deal he has put down now or no deal when the time comes though and I don't think the ONT can demand anything other than that. 

 

We could end up on exactly the same position as now, facing down departing and just a different group of rebel Tories blocking it.

 

On his own deal he does appear to have the numbers in parliament according to the Times -

 

Just obviously a shame it won't get past the EU!

 

Any thoughts on what stance Farage would take at the election if that is the scenario?

[Guest MattP]

17 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Any thoughts on what stance Farage would take at the election if that is the scenario?

I honestly don't know, I'm starting to wonder if Nigel Farage would prefer to destroy the Conservative party than to achieve Brexit.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

I honestly don't know, I'm starting to wonder if Nigel Farage would prefer to destroy the Conservative party than to achieve Brexit.

 

No Brexit and the destruction of the Tory Party is an outcome that I could live with, though some posters may disagree - and I'm not confident that will be the outcome.

 

Not sure I'd like what replaced the Tories, either. Farage? Cummings? (Yaxley-Lennon has gone quiet recently).

 

What bonkers times we're living through.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

No Brexit and the destruction of the Tory Party is an outcome that I could live with, though some posters may disagree - and I'm not confident that will be the outcome.

 

Not sure I'd like what replaced the Tories, either. Farage? Cummings? (Yaxley-Lennon has gone quiet recently).

 

What bonkers times we're living through.

Well it would surely be the Brexit party. I mean the Conservatives now have to own Brexit to stay alive - even in the event of a second referendum and Remain winning the Tories will have go into the election after promising to re-invoke Article 50 and leaving. 

 

No idea why people keep giving Yaxley -Lennon any airtime, the British people will never vote for that in huge numbers.

[HappyHamza]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Well it would surely be the Brexit party. I mean the Conservatives now have to own Brexit to stay alive - even in the event of a second referendum and Remain winning the Tories will have go into the election after promising to re-invoke Article 50 and leaving. 

 

No idea why people keep giving Yaxley -Lennon any airtime, the British people will never vote for that in huge numbers.

If a second referendum were to happen it is extremely likely remain wins

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html%3famp

 

If the Tories were to continue banging on about brexit after a rejection of it - at a point in time when negotiations have gone on for over 3 years and brexiteers have failed to get anywhere close to their promises - then that would only speed up their demise. 

 

Whatever happens now the Tories are finished.  

[HappyHamza]

.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, HappyHamza said:

If a second referendum were to happen it is extremely likely remain wins

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html%3famp

 

If the Tories were to continue banging on about brexit after a rejection of it - at a point in time when negotiations have gone on for over 3 years and brexiteers have failed to get anywhere close to their promises - then that would only speed up their demise. 

 

Whatever happens now the Tories are finished.  

Of course they are Moose. 

 

Same way the SNP were finished after Scottish independence was rejected I suppose?

 

The only thing destroys the Conservative party now is accepting that Brexit isn't going to happen, it would reduce it to 100 wealthy shire seats and nowhere else. 

[HappyHamza]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Of course they are Moose. 

 

Same way the SNP were finished after Scottish independence was rejected I suppose?

 

The only thing destroys the Conservative party now is accepting that Brexit isn't going to happen, it would reduce it to 100 wealthy shire seats and nowhere else. 

 What or who on earth is Moose? 

 

Continuing to bang on about brexit would mean playing to a diminishing crowd. The polls have been clear for a very, very long time about that. At this very moment not being the original brexit party would kill it but in the longer term continuing in that vein would be entirely unsustainable. Whether it happens or not brexit no longer has popular support. 

[Winchesterfox]

13 hours ago, MattP said:

One of the most important things for our democracy in the next parliament is restoring the reputation of the speaker being impartial. 

 

Not only that you are impartial, but all sides of the house and all sides of public opinion see you as impartial.

 

I don't know whether it can be done but some sort of legal legislation hopefully forcing them to abide by Erskine May precedent, rather than leaving it upto the speaker so ones like Bercow can abuse it as he sees fit. 

I'd focus on getting a Prime Minister who doesn't break the laws we already have. Besides, the speaker is just asserting parliamentary sovereignty, which I thought Brexiters wanted.  

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Winchesterfox said:

I'd focus on getting a Prime Minister who doesn't break the laws we already have. Besides, the speaker is just asserting parliamentary sovereignty, which I thought Brexiters wanted.  

Sorry but if you seriously think the speaker arranging clandestine meetings with everyone from Dominic Grieve to David Sassoli is "asserting parliamentary soverienghty" then you have lost sight of everything the speaker is supposed to be about. That's before we even get to the horrific abuse of standing orders and urgent questions. 

 

Be careful if you support this, because if impartialality vanishes one day it might be a speaker working against you.

 

This sort of thing is FAR more important than Brexit.