Brexit!

[bovril]

On 02/10/2019 at 13:07, FerrisBueller said:

Is anybody else waiting for confirmation of Settled Status? My girlfriend applied a few months ago and still hasn't heard anything back, they claimed it would take 3-4 days.

Just getting a bit worried now as the threat of no deal seems more likely.

My partner didn't really want to send her details to the government until it was clear if and how we had left, but like you said with the threat of no-deal likely she will do. The government have said that EU citizens will still have until end of 2020 in the event of no-deal but I don't really trust their word. Have no idea what happens when she goes back at Christmas and tries to come back to the UK. Complete nightmare for millions of people. 

Edited 4 October 2019 by bovril

[yorkie1999]

16 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Crete is in the EU but n Ireland is the same nation as England, Wales and Scotland ! Perhaps  the residents of n Ireland are happy to show ID to enter the British mainland given their land border with the EU.  Bit surprised if that’s the case 

Unless you swim across, you need some form of ID to go to NI from the mainland and ryanair require passports.

[FerrisBueller]

11 minutes ago, bovril said:

My partner didn't really want to send her details to the government until it was clear if and how we had left, but like you said with the threat of no-deal likely she will do. The government have said that EU citizens will still have until end of 2020 in the event of no-deal but I don't really trust their word. Have no idea what happens when she goes back at Christmas and tries to come back to the UK. Complete nightmare for millions of people. 

Absolute nightmare like you say, it's one thing the gov promising it until 2020 but I don't trust them one bit.

Not to mention all these people getting denied settled status for seemingly no good reason.

I'm just praying for some sort of deal now, I need that transition period so I can sort my stuff and leave.

 

The whole process has been anxiety inducing, I just hope it's going to be worth it (it definitely won't)

[Charl91]

1 hour ago, iniesta said:

I would happily reverse article 50 if promised these tedious remainer metaphors would stop. 

 

 

 

Not a huge metaphor fan, but sometimes you have to put things as simply as possible when people repeatedly (intentionally or otherwise) seem to miss the point.

Edited 4 October 2019 by Charl91

[bovril]

33 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

Absolute nightmare like you say, it's one thing the gov promising it until 2020 but I don't trust them one bit.

Not to mention all these people getting denied settled status for seemingly no good reason.

I'm just praying for some sort of deal now, I need that transition period so I can sort my stuff and leave.

 

The whole process has been anxiety inducing, I just hope it's going to be worth it (it definitely won't)

We still want to live here but we'll see what happens over the next few years. I think the atmosphere will get more unpleasant. At least she'll still be able to live and work visa free in 27 other countries. I won't. 

[FerrisBueller]

10 minutes ago, bovril said:

We still want to live here but we'll see what happens over the next few years. I think the atmosphere will get more unpleasant. At least she'll still be able to live and work visa free in 27 other countries. I won't. 

I always intended on leaving, just not so soon, the past few years has made it a lot easier to make my mind up. I think you're right, and it's already pretty unpleasant. My girlfriend was told to 'go home' the other day for speaking Danish on the phone to her mum, irony being that she speaks better English than half the country.

Gonna use that last little bit of FOM while i still can.

[bovril]

2 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

I always intended on leaving, just not so soon, the past few years has made it a lot easier to make my mind up. I think you're right, and it's already pretty unpleasant. My girlfriend was told to 'go home' the other day for speaking Danish on the phone to her mum, irony being that she speaks better English than half the country.

Gonna use that last little bit of FOM while i still can.

My brother-in-law was told to fvck off back to Eastern Europe for speaking Swedish (he's from Devon). Though that was back in 2015. 

Edited 4 October 2019 by bovril

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, bovril said:

My brother-in-law was told to fvck off back to Eastern Europe for speaking Swedish (he's from Devon). Though that was back in 2015. 

I've been told to **** off back to Greece and I'm born in Leicester. 

[Facecloth]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

I've been told to **** off back to Greece and I'm born in Leicester. 

Had you just got back from a lads holiday and pissed your missus off?

[yorkie1999]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

I've been told to **** off back to Greece and I'm born in Leicester. 

I've been told to fvck off back to Hinckley and i was born in Leicester!

[Salisbury Fox]

3 hours ago, Charl91 said:

 Labour think, rightly or wrongly, that they will get a better deal than May or Boris (and in my opinion they would, purely because they're not restricted by May's red lines). 

Given that Labour would campaign against any deal that they agree with the EU I struggle to see how you think this.  

[Guest MattP]

Finally got around to watching the highlights of PMQ's. (not televised as Boris speech was same time)

Diane Abbott was just a good as I thought she would be, started with a tribute to Dinah Asher Smith before sitting down and forgetting to ask the first question, then somehow managed to stand up to try and ask a seventh question before the speaker reminded her she only had six.

 

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

I appreciate that there are a lot of problems with a second referendum. That's why I opposed it for so long - and would still prefer an acceptable compromise.....but that's never been offered. A referendum would be a divisive process itself - and would take months to set up. Your points are fair, at least in part. I'm sure that some Leave voters would not respect a Remain result, though a lot of people on all sides just want the issue over with, so more than you think might want to move on. For that reason, if Remain won, would it be a successful electoral strategy for the Tories to go into the next election promising to Leave? After the SNP lost their referendum, they opted to put IndyRef2 on the back burner.

 

Of course, Leave might well win again. I'm absolutely assuming, though, that we'll have had an election before any referendum happens. So, the parliamentary mathematics might be similar or they might be very different. A second referendum is a flawed solution, but I don't see a better one, in the absence of a reasonable compromise.

 

Who knows where the Tory Party is heading in the medium-term. They are no longer a centre-right broad church, it seems, but are now a party of the Eurosceptic Populist Right, a sort of cross between Farage and Trump. Did you see that Rory Stewart has resigned from the party and won't re-stand in Cumbria? I wonder where they go if the Brexit divorce is resolved somehow or other? If Brexit happens, unlikely that Boris could fund the populist stuff in the medium-term, particularly if we suffer serious economic harm.....and the global outlook seems bleak, even without Brexit.

 

On Hitchens' point, I'm sure the terms would be much worse if we did end up leaving and rejoining. Personally, I'm convinced that No Deal would be an utter disaster, worse than anything since WW2. A Hard Brexit Deal wouldn't be as bad, but would still be pretty bad - and would exacerbate divisions and hostility between people. But I suspect that it would take a long time for the EU to even accept us rejoining, after this long, painful debacle, plus whatever follows. I'd love to see the Govt bring forward a genuine compromise Brexit that could win the acceptance of a substantial majority of MPs and the public (nothing will unite everyone). But May wasn't prepared to do that, unsuccessfully prioritising Tory Party unity, and Boris has gone the full hog with Eurosceptic populism, probably more out of personal ambition than out of conviction. I cannot see anything other than bitter division under his leadership.

I don't really see a general election or a second referendum solving it, like it or not I think this issue is going to dominate for the next twenty years.

 

The SNP said they would lay off a second referendum but that was back in the days where it was still widely acknowledged that you accepted defeat when you lose votes, we seem to be moving past that now and losers consent is no along an overwhelming majority opinion in our society (6million I believe signed the "revoke" petition).

 

I'm very sad to see Rory Stewart go, he wasn't advocating second referendum or defecting, he just wanted a Brexit compromise, not right he lost the whip when that was his position. I do think you being a tad hyperbolic though describing the Tories as between Trump and Farage, we are seeing some pretty left wing policy when it comes to finance, pay rises for all, more cash being thrown into the black hole of the NHS, there are still plenty of liberals in the party.

 

The word "populism" now seems to just be used against right wing politicians who the accuser doesn't like. It is nice to finally see an actual big "C" Conservative running the home office though, I really do wish we were about to live in a society where violent criminals are terrified but unfortunately I don't think we have the tools or capability to make it happen. I'll give Priti Patel a chance though.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

I don't really see a general election or a second referendum solving it, like it or not I think this issue is going to dominate for the next twenty years.

 

The SNP said they would lay off a second referendum but that was back in the days where it was still widely acknowledged that you accepted defeat when you lose votes, we seem to be moving past that now and losers consent is no along an overwhelming majority opinion in our society (6million I believe signed the "revoke" petition).

 

I'm very sad to see Rory Stewart go, he wasn't advocating second referendum or defecting, he just wanted a Brexit compromise, not right he lost the whip when that was his position. I do think you being a tad hyperbolic though describing the Tories as between Trump and Farage, we are seeing some pretty left wing policy when it comes to finance, pay rises for all, more cash being thrown into the black hole of the NHS, there are still plenty of liberals in the party.

 

The word "populism" now seems to just be used against right wing politicians who the accuser doesn't like. It is nice to finally see an actual big "C" Conservative running the home office though, I really do wish we were about to live in a society where violent criminals are terrified but unfortunately I don't think we have the tools or capability to make it happen. I'll give Priti Patel a chance though.

 

Agree with your first comment. More a case of different paths leading to more or less division, not settling the controversy, though other, bigger issues may take over at some point. The forthcoming election may settle the immediate issue of whether we definitely leave, though not necessarily - if it produces a similar parliament to now. Could lead to No Deal (and a lot of strife) if Boris' "People v. Parliament" plan works....or (less likely) a referendum if the opposition parties gain seats overall.

 

Electorate with a shallow understanding of politics/democracy + Loss of trust in politicians & funding of politics + Social media hysteria & echo chambers + High-stakes issue badly managed = Polarisation & loss of respect for democratic decisions?

So maybe Johnson is a PM for our times - shallow, lying, allegedly corrupt, polarising and prepared to act not just dishonestly but unlawfully to get his way....

 

Agree re. Stewart & wouldn't surprise me if he wins as mayor (his candidacy probably ends the hopes of Bailey & the Lib Dem, but the mayoral vote is by PR, isn't it? If so, wouldn't surprise me if he beat Sadiq after transfers)....long time away yet.

If Johnson wins a majority and spends 5 years splurging on pay rises and public spending, I'll admit you were right. I assume it's mainly electoral rhetoric - & there are plenty behind him who want Brexit for a low-tax, low-spend, deregulated, increasingly squalid, unequal UK undercutting the EU on standards. If Boris gets a majority, I imagine he'd keep at least some promises initially, but what about when the neo-liberal right start twisting his arm, the deficit/debt are rocketing (so much for austerity being necessary!) and there's no election to win for years?

 

I'd say that Corbyn was quite a populist, too, and won a lot of votes through populism in 2017. Politicians always have pandered to public sentiment around election time, but it seems to be getting a lot more extreme ("we'll cut taxes & improve public services" -> "we'll sort Brexit immediately"; "we'll spend vast sums that we've said were unaffordable for the past 9 years"; "we'll cancel tuition fees & have a 4-day week with no loss of pay" etc.). I'd like it to go in the opposite direction, with more honest politicians telling voters the truth about hard choices - and voters being sufficiently well informed to mistrust unrealistic promises.....but I won't hold my breath: false promises -> votes -> power for convincing liars & growing democratic alienation when the promises are broken.

[Legend_in_blue]

Quote

Boris Johnson will send a letter to the EU asking for a Brexit delay if no deal is agreed by 19 October, according to government papers submitted to a Scottish court.  

    

But Downing Street said the UK would still be leaving the EU on 31 October.

 

Eh?  

[Guest MattP]

Dear EU,

 

New UK law requires I request an extension to Brexit.

 

There will be no further negotiations, my intention is to call an election on the manifesto of leaving immediately, with no deal.

 

Boris.

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Dear EU,

 

New UK law requires I request an extension to Brexit.

 

There will be no further negotiations, my intention is to call an election on the manifesto of leaving immediately, with no deal.

 

Boris.

 

Dear Boris,

 

As we've always said, we're happy to offer an extension for a "democratic event" such as an election.

 

We look forward to hearing whether you've won a majority to implement No Deal or have been thrown from power and into the Tower of London dungeon where you belong.

 

We hereby grant your extension, as requested.

 

EU 

[StanSP]

32 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Eh?  

It's not worded well. It means if a deal hasn't been agreed by 19th Oct, Boris will ask for an extension. 

 

Not if 'no-deal' has been agreed. 

[Finnaldo]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

It is nice to finally see an actual big "C" Conservative running the home office though, I really do wish we were about to live in a society where violent criminals are terrified but unfortunately I don't think we have the tools or capability to make it happen. I'll give Priti Patel a chance though.

 

Genuine question, what do you think the best way to terrify violent criminals is without impeding individual freedoms of the innocent and inflating a culture of Police mistrust in communities and a larger nation-wide anti-Police attitude? 

Edited 4 October 2019 by Finnaldo

[Legend_in_blue]

39 minutes ago, StanSP said:

It's not worded well. It means if a deal hasn't been agreed by 19th Oct, Boris will ask for an extension. 

 

Not if 'no-deal' has been agreed. 

I haven't got a problem with that.

 

The problem I've got with it is if a deal is not agreed, Boris will send off this letter asking for an extension but yet the government still insist we will leave on Oct 31st!

[oxford blue]

Matt (Daily Telegraph) sums up the main issue of the Irish border:

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Eh?  

I suspect he’s just muddying the waters, trying to keep some pressure on the EU by trying to make them think he’s got something clever up his sleeve. In practice he’d probably refuse to comply with the Benn Act until forced to by the courts, and can later use this in his “people vs parliament “ election.

Edited 4 October 2019 by WigstonWanderer

[The Guvnor]

2 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

 

Genuine question, what do you think the best way to terrify violent criminals is without impeding individual freedoms of the innocent and inflating a culture of Police mistrust in communities and a larger nation-wide anti-Police attitude? 

Threaten to lock them up in a cell with a continual loop of Nicola Sturgeon talking about a scottish independance referendum accompanied by a bagpipe serenade of Scotland the Brave.

 

Apologies if this offends anyone North of the Border.

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

Genuine question, what do you think the best way to terrify violent criminals is without impeding individual freedoms of the innocent and inflating a culture of Police mistrust in communities and a larger nation-wide anti-Police attitude? 

Well you satisfy the question by enhancing the jurisdiction of the courts. Tougher sentencing for those guilty of violent crimes - if they still don't get the message after that then so be it, at least they are in in prison and not able to commit more damage in society.

 

The days of people carrying knives without sentence need to vanish, violent rapists and murderers need to know they are going away until they are old and frail.

 

Why do you assume being tough on criminals inflate a mistrust in the police? Do you think certain communities don't want criminals to be greatly harshly?

 

What communities wouldn't and why?

 

As for nationwide mistrust - polling shows overwhelming support - you might not like Priti Patel, in fact I'm sure you don't, but this policy is among the most popular you can get amongst the nation. Look at yougov on it....

 

(I know obviously await a ridiculous comparison with the USA - whilst ignoring the many nations who are brutal on violent crime with excellent results)

 

[Mike Oxlong]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Well you satisfy the question by enhancing the jurisdiction of the courts. Tougher sentencing for those guilty of violent crimes - if they still don't get the message after that then so be it, at least they are in in prison and not able to commit more damage in society.

 

The days of people carrying knives without sentence need to vanish, violent rapists and murderers need to know they are going away until they are old and frail.

 

Why do you assume being tough on criminals inflate a mistrust in the police? Do you think certain communities don't want criminals to be greatly harshly?

 

What communities wouldn't and why?

 

As for nationwide mistrust - polling shows overwhelming support - you might not like Priti Patel, in fact I'm sure you don't, but this policy is among the most popular you can get amongst the nation. Look at yougov on it....

 

(I know obviously await a ridiculous comparison with the USA - whilst ignoring the many nations who are brutal on violent crime with excellent results)

 

But you need a fully functioning criminal justice system too (unless we are going down the route of summary justice which this Home Secretary might well think is an excellent idea) and that is not something we’ve had for many a year

 

See the recent article by the Secret Barrister in the Guardian (your favourite comic) - sorry, for some reason I can’t post the link

 

Edit: Here it is

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/02/tories-tough-talk-crime-shameless-cynical-justice?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

 

 

 

Edited 4 October 2019 by Mike Oxlong

[Mike Oxlong]

6 hours ago, MattP said:

Finally got around to watching the highlights of PMQ's. (not televised as Boris speech was same  It is nice to finally see an actual big "C" Conservative running the home office though, 

I do agree with you on this one though Matt

 

PP is a proper big C