Brexit!

[Jon the Hat]

 

19 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Re. the polls posted by @MattP & @UpTheLeagueFox, putting the Tories ahead by various margins (some large)......

 

It puzzles me that the bookies still have it odds-on for an election to produce another hung parliament - and only 6-4 for a Tory majority.

I know that odds are largely determined by bets placed. So, are the bookies - or punters - factoring in something else, like Tory support drifting to Farage if they don't "get Brexit done" by 31/10, tactical voting by Remainers or Boris alienating people?

 

From my anti-Tory perspective, the figures here make me pretty pessimistic:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

 

- There are about 40 Labour seats with a majority of less than 4000 over the Tories, mainly Leave seats plus a few in the SE, where LD switchers could hand the seat to the Tories

- There are only 13 Tory seats where the Lib Dems are less than 12,000 behind.....surely limiting their potential gains?

- The Tories cannot lose more than 13 seats to the SNP or others in Scotland, as they only have 13

 

A lot of factors could change the outlook, but let's just say that I can see why the Tories think they have a good chance of winning a majority.....5 years under BJ.... 

 

You are right - Boris is set for a landslide. The EU and remainer MPs are gambling big time here.

Edited 8 October 2019 by Jon the Hat

[Jon the Hat]

8 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

They don't even pretend to have any good points anymore, just bare-faced racism with an additional war reference aimed at the generation that never fought in the war but fetishise it.

I thought that must be a spoof when I saw it on twitter. They have ****ing lost it.  *****.

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

 

You are right - Boris is set for a landslide. The EU and remainer MPs are gambling big time here.

 

I am pessimistic and agree that an election (which I expect) will be a big gamble for Remain/Soft Brexit supporters.

But I suspect you're optimistic to expect a Tory landslide - especially if 31/10 comes and goes & the Tories become an overt No Deal party.

 

How do you explain those bookies' odds - odds-on for a hung parliament, 6-4 for ANY Tory majority (presumably much longer for a landslide)?

I'm genuinely puzzled at that, given the polls.

 

An election will be a gamble for Johnson, too, though. He'll be pretty knackered if he doesn't win a majority....and lots of stuff could knock him off track, not least if the Jennifer Arcuri investigation reveals corrupt influence. 

Starting to sounds as if the DUP could lose a few seats, too, given widespread opposition to No Deal in N. Ireland & anger among some unionists about acceptance of a SM border in the Irish Sea.

[LiberalFox]

I don't think anyone really knows what will happen during a general election. I think Corbyn will do better than expected, he's not bad at campaigning. 

[The Horse's Mouth]

yeah polls this early on seems a bit daft

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Re. the polls posted by @MattP & @UpTheLeagueFox, putting the Tories ahead by various margins (some large)......

 

It puzzles me that the bookies still have it odds-on for an election to produce another hung parliament - and only 6-4 for a Tory majority.

I know that odds are largely determined by bets placed. So, are the bookies - or punters - factoring in something else, like Tory support drifting to Farage if they don't "get Brexit done" by 31/10, tactical voting by Remainers or Boris alienating people?

 

From my anti-Tory perspective, the figures here make me pretty pessimistic:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

 

- There are about 40 Labour seats with a majority of less than 4000 over the Tories, mainly Leave seats plus a few in the SE, where LD switchers could hand the seat to the Tories

- There are only 13 Tory seats where the Lib Dems are less than 12,000 behind.....surely limiting their potential gains?

- The Tories cannot lose more than 13 seats to the SNP or others in Scotland, as they only have 13

 

A lot of factors could change the outlook, but let's just say that I can see why the Tories think they have a good chance of winning a majority.....5 years under BJ.... 

It's because there are just so many variants at the minute - the only thing the bookies know is that only two results currently are possible and that's a hung parliament or a Tory majority. 

 

I'd argue Farage is a bit part of it as well - it's probably him and the Brexit party that are the only ones who can stop Boris now there appears to be zero chance of any sort of Lab/Lib pact. 

 

The spread on Tory seats would be about 310 at the minute with those odds, more than enough to see off a coalition against him - with the DUP and SF abstaining even another hung parliament could be enough for Boris to get a no deal through.

[LiberalFox]

I think Labour were something like 14 points down when May announced an election and people were wondering if it would be the largest Tory majority ever, ended up a minority government. 

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I think Labour were something like 14 points down when May announced an election and people were wondering if it would be the largest Tory majority ever, ended up a minority government. 

That's probably because May then decided to hide away for two months only deciding to come out every now and then to announce she'd take people's homes, kill foxes or slap taxes on them for having dementia. (Then Jeremy Corbyn got standing ovations for only getting beat rather than hammered) I don't think you'll be seeing that again. 

 

Boris and Cummings will make McDonnell look like scrooge with the amount of ridiculous promises they bring, the Tories have no guilt anymore about loading debt on the young.

Edited 8 October 2019 by MattP

[Finnaldo]

58 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

You don’t see the EUs sole objective is to stop Brexit?  I mean they have said it enough times - they want the British to change their minds.  This is far from a normal trade negotiation,  In fact we haven;t even started talking about trade have we??  This is the transitional period, which no one even mentioned before we triggered article 50 - the EU created it to keep us in longer and give more time for project fear, and for the British people to worry and those agitating for a new vote to have time to politic for it.  

We are being ****ed over the by the EU in an attempt to stop us leaving, and the only solution to this is no deal exit on the 31st.  Then we can start again on negotiations.  It will I expect be quicker.

 

Weren’t the EU set to accept May’s deal?

 

I mean, until the current government shot it down. 

[Foxin_Mad]

4 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I think Labour were something like 14 points down when May announced an election and people were wondering if it would be the largest Tory majority ever, ended up a minority government. 

This is different though. Labour stood last time on leaving in the North where most of their seats exist.

 

Labour may win some southern remain seats but they should be annihilated in the midlands/north.

 

The Brexit Policy is still incoherent. 

 

I am a remainer. I cant see how any remainer can vote for Labour but I am sure some will.

[Finnaldo]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Boris and Cummings will make McDonnell look like scrooge with the amount of ridiculous promises they bring, the Tories have no guilt anymore about loading debt on the young.

 

At the same time, Boris and Rees-Mogg as characters make May look like Mother Teresa (no pun intended). You’ve got an Old Etonian prone to comments like ‘watermelon smiles’ and a villain straight out of a Charles Dickens novel with a penchant for napping on the job.

 

My money is on Boris winning but it’s far too early to suggest how it will play out or prematurely announcing him the winner. Election seasons have a very funny habit of producing twists and turns.

[Parafox]

21 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

Weren’t the EU set to accept May’s deal?

 

I mean, until the current government shot it down. 

No they weren't. 

They paid lip-service to May. They weren't then, nor will ever be, about to agree to any UK terms on Brexit. The EU, in particular France and Germany, are shit-scared of us leaving the EU because of the destabilising effect it will have on Europe and on the control that Germany and ironically, France, has over the EU. 

Whatever the terms of leaving are or aren't, they will have us over a barrel for years to come.

[LiberalFox]

27 minutes ago, MattP said:

That's probably because May then decided to hide away for two months only deciding to come out every now and then to announce she'd take people's homes, kill foxes or slap taxes on them for having dementia. (Then Jeremy Corbyn got standing ovations for only getting beat rather than hammered) I don't think you'll be seeing that again. 

 

Boris and Cummings will make McDonnell look like scrooge with the amount of ridiculous promises they bring, the Tories have no guilt anymore about loading debt on the young.

It was a terrible campaign by May. It's a risky strategy to try and take on Corbyn in promising public spending isn't it? McDonnell's policies are usually well researched and fit into general leftist ideology, Boris is banking on promising a few extra quid for the NHS and more police is going to stand up to that.

[Guest MattP]

32 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Weren’t the EU set to accept May’s deal?

 

I mean, until the current government shot it down. 

Of course they were, it was a deal that effectively locked us in a customs union until they told us we could leave, the ERG voted it down as they thought the EU had sinister motives to keep us in it forever. 

 

The attitude on Northern Ireland now probably shows they were right. 

 

I never forgot this story, I firmly believe it now - https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/top-eu-diplomat-said-northern-ireland-the-price-to-pay-for-brexit-claims-former-minister-37608318.html

[Finnaldo]

6 minutes ago, Parafox said:

No they weren't. 

They paid lip-service to May. They weren't then, nor will ever be, about to agree to any UK terms on Brexit. The EU, in particular France and Germany, are shit-scared of us leaving the EU because of the destabilising effect it will have on Europe and on the control that Germany and ironically, France, has over the EU. 

Whatever the terms of leaving are or aren't, they will have us over a barrel for years to come.

 

 

oops

[Finnaldo]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Of course they were, it was a deal that effectively locked us in a customs union until they told us we could leave, the ERG voted it down as they thought the EU had sinister motives to keep us in it forever. 

 

The attitude on Northern Ireland now probably shows they were right. 

 

I never forgot this story, I firmly believe it now - https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/top-eu-diplomat-said-northern-ireland-the-price-to-pay-for-brexit-claims-former-minister-37608318.html

 

So to conclude: the EU didn’t try and stop Brexit, you just disagree with how they wanted to implement it? 

 

Im glad we ironed this out chaps.

[Parafox]

38 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

 

oops

:I said, lip service. Tusk can say anything. doesn't make it truth until they have something definitive that says they agree. Endorsing is not the same as agreeing and going ahead. Otherwise May would still have a job and we wouldn't be in a war of words right now.

It's weasel words from tusk and the EU.

 

I could endorse a quote from a builder to do an extension for me, but that doesn't mean I will accept it.

[Paninistickers]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Re. the polls posted by @MattP & @UpTheLeagueFox, putting the Tories ahead by various margins (some large)......

 

It puzzles me that the bookies still have it odds-on for an election to produce another hung parliament - and only 6-4 for a Tory majority.

I know that odds are largely determined by bets placed. So, are the bookies - or punters - factoring in something else, like Tory support drifting to Farage if they don't "get Brexit done" by 31/10, tactical voting by Remainers or Boris alienating people?

 

From my anti-Tory perspective, the figures here make me pretty pessimistic:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

 

- There are about 40 Labour seats with a majority of less than 4000 over the Tories, mainly Leave seats plus a few in the SE, where LD switchers could hand the seat to the Tories

- There are only 13 Tory seats where the Lib Dems are less than 12,000 behind.....surely limiting their potential gains?

- The Tories cannot lose more than 13 seats to the SNP or others in Scotland, as they only have 13

 

A lot of factors could change the outlook, but let's just say that I can see why the Tories think they have a good chance of winning a majority.....5 years under BJ.... 

 

Excellent summary.

 

The Joker in the pack is Farage. It is they who take the labour leave vote, not the Tories. And I have my doubts about Farage's motives. I wonder if his true, deep down ambition is as agent provocateur. Destroyer of the Tories.

 

The EU has been good for him to cast himself as the bogeyman (and he does it very very well).....what on earth would he do without it?

 

 

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Parafox said:

:I said, lip service. Tusk can say anything. doesn't make it truth until they have something definitive that says they agree. Endorsing is not the same as agreeing and going ahead. Otherwise May would still have a job and we wouldn't be in a war of words right now.

It's weasel words from tusk and the EU.

 

I could endorse a quote from a builder to do an extension for me, but that doesn't mean I will accept it.

Er, they negotiated a treaty for the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and our parliament rejected it. It was kind of big news like 9 months ago.

[Guest MattP]

Well parliament prorogued again.

 

Those two full days they came back were really worth it, turned up, shouted at each other and went home, took an axe to hundreds of years of precedent for it as well.

 

Whoever does win the next election - that government has some serious responsibility in restoring public trust in parliament again. It always needs to work out what influence and limits everything from the Supreme Court to the PM to the speaker has.

 

We can't throw away hundreds of years of a perfectly working unwritten constitution just because Boris Johnson or John Bercow want to strut like a peacock to their own audience - that's as important as anything else including Brexit. 

Edited 8 October 2019 by MattP

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

It's because there are just so many variants at the minute - the only thing the bookies know is that only two results currently are possible and that's a hung parliament or a Tory majority. 

 

I'd argue Farage is a bit part of it as well - it's probably him and the Brexit party that are the only ones who can stop Boris now there appears to be zero chance of any sort of Lab/Lib pact. 

 

The spread on Tory seats would be about 310 at the minute with those odds, more than enough to see off a coalition against him - with the DUP and SF abstaining even another hung parliament could be enough for Boris to get a no deal through.

 

Yes, too many variants to make meaningful predictions yet, but hard to see beyond a hung parliament or Tory majority just now.....though a Boris implosion of some sort is always a possibility that could change that.

 

Farage is certainly a big factor. I wonder what his stance will be? If the Tories openly advocate No Deal, I'm assuming they'd only face token opposition from the Brexit Party? Or would they?

What if Johnson has been forced, however reluctantly, to request an extension (likely scenario, I think), breaking his 31st October pledge? Would Farage & his voters trust him? Or see that scenario as an opportunity to get a few Brexit Party MPs?

The other side of the coin is that if the Tories openly advocate No Deal, they risk losing moderate Tory voters to the Lib Dems.....but if they don't advocate No Deal, they could face fierce direct contests from Brexit Party candidates?

 

The Tories would surely need more than 310 seats (less than May won in 2017)? 310 would probably be enough to prevent an alternative coalition, but not to pass No Deal. Even after the expulsion of the 21 MPs, there'll be other Tory MPs left who won't vote for No Deal - and every chance that the DUP will win fewer than 10 MPs next time. Admittedly, as per my figures, there currently does seem to be a good chance that the Tories could get 330-340 or more - enough to pass No Deal.  

[Mike Oxlong]

To think that No Deal was 200 times more unlikely than our 2016 title win according to Boris 

 

 

 

 

Edited 8 October 2019 by Mike Oxlong

[Jon the Hat]

16 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

 

Weren’t the EU set to accept May’s deal?

 

I mean, until the current government shot it down. 

The deal which tied the whole UK into the customs union until a future arrangement was agreed with the EU, and which the UK could not unilaterally leave?  That deal?  We would never get out of it.

[Jon the Hat]

12 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Yes, too many variants to make meaningful predictions yet, but hard to see beyond a hung parliament or Tory majority just now.....though a Boris implosion of some sort is always a possibility that could change that.

 

Farage is certainly a big factor. I wonder what his stance will be? If the Tories openly advocate No Deal, I'm assuming they'd only face token opposition from the Brexit Party? Or would they?

What if Johnson has been forced, however reluctantly, to request an extension (likely scenario, I think), breaking his 31st October pledge? Would Farage & his voters trust him? Or see that scenario as an opportunity to get a few Brexit Party MPs?

The other side of the coin is that if the Tories openly advocate No Deal, they risk losing moderate Tory voters to the Lib Dems.....but if they don't advocate No Deal, they could face fierce direct contests from Brexit Party candidates?

 

The Tories would surely need more than 310 seats (less than May won in 2017)? 310 would probably be enough to prevent an alternative coalition, but not to pass No Deal. Even after the expulsion of the 21 MPs, there'll be other Tory MPs left who won't vote for No Deal - and every chance that the DUP will win fewer than 10 MPs next time. Admittedly, as per my figures, there currently does seem to be a good chance that the Tories could get 330-340 or more - enough to pass No Deal.  

I think Boris will campaign on no deal, and Farage will fall into line.  They will probably talk about a March date to give us more time to conclude the rollover agreements with the RoW countries, and to manage a few more details.

[The Horse's Mouth]

Farage wont be much of an issue, Boris cant campaign on anything other than no deal. He's doubled down enough on us leaving and no deal is going to be the quickest way to accomplish that