How many points do we need to be mathematically certain of promotion

[Sly]

We’re potentially going to smash the points total.

 

On the averages - 97 points wins us the league, 93 gets us promoted.

 

Based on the average points per game.

 

Us - 110

Southampton - 96

Ipswich - 93

Leeds - 92

 

People will still moan that we’ve got a poor defence and need more goals though, despite amounting the biggest points haul ever in this league. Then having one of the best defence and attacks. 
 

25 more points required.

 

10 - 11 games based on our average. 
 

So either Birmingham or Norwich.

Promotion likely sealed if we can get a result against Southampton on the 16th March.  

 

Year	Team	Games	Points	GF	GA	GD	xGD46	Av Points	Av GF	Av GA
23/24	Leicester City	30	72	64	23	41.00	62.87	2.40	2.13	0.77
23/24	Southampton	29	61	55	32	23.00	36.48	2.10	1.90	1.10
23/24	Leeds United	30	60	52	26	26.00	39.87	2.00	1.73	0.87
23/24	Ipswich Town	29	59	53	38	15.00	23.79	2.03	1.83	1.31
22/23	Burnley	46	101	87	35	52.00	52.00	2.20	1.89	0.76
21/22	Fulham	46	90	106	43	63.00	63.00	1.96	2.30	0.93
20/21	Norwich City	46	97	75	39	36.00	36.00	2.11	1.63	0.85
19/20	Leeds United	46	93	77	35	42.00	42.00	2.02	1.67	0.76
18/19	Norwich City	46	94	93	57	36.00	36.00	2.04	2.02	1.24
17/18	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	99	82	39	43.00	43.00	2.15	1.78	0.85
16/17	Newcastle United	46	94	85	40	45.00	45.00	2.04	1.85	0.87
15/16	Burnley	46	93	72	35	37.00	37.00	2.02	1.57	0.76
14/15	Bournemouth	46	90	98	45	53.00	53.00	1.96	2.13	0.98
13/14	Leicester City	46	102	83	43	40.00	40.00	2.22	1.80	0.93
12/13	Cardiff City	46	87	72	45	27.00	27.00	1.89	1.57	0.98
11/12	Reading	46	89	69	41	28.00	28.00	1.93	1.50	0.89
10/11	Queens Park Rangers	46	88	71	32	39.00	39.00	1.91	1.54	0.70
09/10	Newcastle United	46	102	90	35	55.00	55.00	2.22	1.96	0.76
08/09	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	90	80	52	28.00	28.00	1.96	1.74	1.13
07/08	West Bromwich Albion	46	81	88	55	33.00	33.00	1.76	1.91	1.20
06/07	Sunderland	46	88	76	47	29.00	29.00	1.91	1.65	1.02
05/06	Reading	46	106	99	32	67.00	67.00	2.30	2.15	0.70
04/05	Sunderland	46	94	75	41	34.00	34.00	2.04	1.63	0.89
03/04	Norwich City	46	94	79	39	40.00	40.00	2.04	1.72	0.85
02/03	Portsmouth	46	98	97	45	52.00	52.00	2.13	2.11	0.98
01/02	Manchester City	46	99	108	52	56.00	56.00	2.15	2.35	1.13
00/01	Fulham	46	101	90	32	58.00	58.00	2.20	1.96	0.70
99/00	Charlton Athletic	46	91	79	45	34.00	34.00	1.98	1.72	0.98
98/99	Sunderland	46	105	91	28	63.00	63.00	2.28	1.98	0.61
97/98	Nottingham Forest	46	94	82	42	40.00	40.00	2.04	1.78	0.91
96/98	Bolton Wanderers	46	98	100	53	47.00	47.00	2.13	2.17	1.15
95/96	Sunderland	46	83	59	33	26.00	26.00	1.80	1.28	0.72
94/95	Middlesborough	46	82	67	40	27.00	27.00	1.78	1.46	0.87
93/94	Crystal Palace	46	90	73	46	27.00	27.00	1.96	1.59	1.00

 

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

16 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

By the time we go to Elland Road they could be needing almost a full point a game more than us to catch us, no? 

 

Mad. 

Once it hits a point a game it’s pretty close to being over IMO. If we can win our next few games, and avoid defeat at Elland Road, we’ll almost be there. 

[Happy Fox]

21 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Now THAT'S a Happy Fox! 

We’re on our way , we’re on our way to the premier league we’re on our way 

[davieG]

The Saints are now one point ahead of Leeds, but have a game in hand too, that could stretch the gap to four points. They are still to visit King Power Stadium, Elland Road and Portman Road this term.

 

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/sport/leeds-united/russell-martin-joke-leeds-united-28566507

[ARM1968]

10 hours ago, Tuna said:

99 points

We’ve got 99 problems son, but Ipswich ain’t one. 

[Sly]

4 minutes ago, davieG said:

The Saints are now one point ahead of Leeds, but have a game in hand too, that could stretch the gap to four points. They are still to visit King Power Stadium, Elland Road and Portman Road this term.

 

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/sport/leeds-united/russell-martin-joke-leeds-united-28566507

They are the only team I think could push us at this point. 
 

Ipswich will continue to fall away now I think.

 

Leeds are erratic. 

[Jobyfox]

5 hours ago, 5waller5 said:

If we had such catastrophic form that they match our points then this GD will have gone. 
 

if we lose 5 that they win then a minimum of -10 to GD, that’s assuming single GD games throughout which is unlikely 

Thanks for pointing this out. It really frustrates me when people look at GD this far out. It only really starts to become relevant when there are less than a handful of games left

[Berlinfox]

After Ipswich's result, the maximum points needed for automatic promotion has dropped to 109.

[Berlinfox]

After Ipswich's result, the maximum points needed for automatic promotion has dropped to 109.

[FoxesFourLife]

20 hours ago, Berlinfox said:

After Ipswich's result, the maximum points needed for automatic promotion has dropped to 109.

You got a double thumbs up for a double post 

[HereBeFoxes]

Well, if I've built my fixture model correctly:

 

Assuming LUFC and SFC win all their games, leaving aside the 3 head-to-heads between them and us, their maximum points are:

 

SFC: 106

LUFC: 102

 

Assuming Leeds win the Leeds/S'ton game at the end of the season, then they're on 105, S'ton on 106.

 

So it comes down to the matches we have against them; if they both win these, then it's 108/109.

 

So, 109 points makes us mathematically promoted.  34 points from 15 games, or 2.27 ppg.

 

Going the other way, the lowest I can get us finishing is 10th, though I suspect I can get it lower with some fine tuning.

 

 

 

 

 

[Foxmeister]

On 03/02/2024 at 23:17, Aus Fox said:

If we can average 1.3 new mathematics based points threads per game, that gives us just over 20 new threads, which even in this crazy season should get us over the line for the automatics - maybe one more thread for the title.

I think we'll get over the line with a thread on how many teams need to go into administration for QPR to make the play-offs.

[FoxFossil]

To collect another 34 points, win the 8 at home, plus win two away  then draw 4 of the rest away. Feels like an excruciating long way still to go.

[Sir Shep]

Based on my basic grasp of mathematics, I would say if we win all of our remaining games we are pretty certain to go up. Hope this helps. 

[Berlinfox]

Following Leeds' result, the total has dropped to 107 or another 29 points from 12 games. 

[Berlinfox]

Following Ipswich's defeat today, the maximum points required is now 106 = 25 more points from 10 games.