How many points do we need to be mathematically certain of promotion

[Berlinfox]

In addition to the which teams can't mathematically catch us thread , I thought it would be interesting to have a how many points needed to ensure promotion thread.

 

My calculation is that the current total points need is 110, which means 38 more.

 

Southampton (112) and Ipswich (110) could reach 110, but they have to play each other so they can't both do it.

 

So at this point from the remaining 16 games,  to be absolutely certain of promotion, the following is enough:

 

11 wins and 5 draws

12 wins 2 draws and 2 defeats

13 wins and 3 defeats

[Spudulike]

This from the other thread.... 

 

Leicester's match week 30 is complete.  Other clubs have one or two games in hand.
 

     
 

    Status:  72 of 93 points required for automatic promotion.
 

     
 

    Current points rate is 2.40/match.  1.31 points/match required for the rest of the season (21 points from 16 matches).
 

     
 

    We have a 12-point gap over third place (Leeds).
 

     
 

    We have 77.4% of the required points for automatic promotion after 65.2% of the season.
 
https://www.foxestalk.co.uk/topic/133442-the-occasional-2023-24-math-thread/?do=findComment&comment=7232034

[ithuriel]

Ipswich have a game in hand as do Southampton, so currently to secure an  automatic spot, if the clubs below us win every game, 13 wins with 3 defeats but they will not win every game.

[whoareyaaa]

I reckon Leeds and Southampton game on the final day could be a decider

 

[Happy Fox]

We will get promotion when we play the Brummies at home is my prediction if not sooner against Norwich 

[Happy Fox]

I think 94 points will be enough. So we only need another 22 points from 16 games.

 

 

[The Syrup]

Doubt we'll need it but our massive GD compared to the next best one (+41, next best is +26 for Leeds as it stands) is an additional safety net should it be needed.

[Aus Fox]

Mathematically speaking, the maximum points each team can get is:

Leicester 120

Southampton 112

Ipswich 110

Leeds 108

WBA 99

Hull 96

Sunderland 94 

Middlesborough 94 

Cov 92

Norwich 92

Cardiff 91

PNE 90

Watford 89

Plymouth 87

Bristol City 86

Blackburn 84

Birmingham 83

Millwall 81

Swansea 81

Stoke 80

Huddersfield 79

QPR 76

 

So mathematically speaking, 111points make certain of promotion. So 13 wins from our remaining games - If Southampton and Ipswich achieved maximum points from their games - as they still have to play each other 12 wins and 2 draws would make it certain.

[Aus Fox]

4 hours ago, Spudulike said:

This from the other thread.... 

 

Leicester's match week 30 is complete.  Other clubs have one or two games in hand.
 

     
 

    Status:  72 of 93 points required for automatic promotion.
 

     
 

    Current points rate is 2.40/match.  1.31 points/match required for the rest of the season (21 points from 16 matches).
 

     
 

    We have a 12-point gap over third place (Leeds).
 

     
 

    We have 77.4% of the required points for automatic promotion after 65.2% of the season.
 
https://www.foxestalk.co.uk/topic/133442-the-occasional-2023-24-math-thread/?do=findComment&comment=7232034

Where does the 93 points for automatic promotion come from? I would be fairly confident two of Leeds, Southampton and Ipswich will get past this points tally.

[Spudulike]

Just now, Aus Fox said:

Where does the 93 points for automatic promotion come from? I would be fairly confident two of Leeds, Southampton and Ipswich will get past this points tally.

It's the number of points required for automatic promotion in the last 19 Championship seasons. 

[Lionator]

The real question, how many more of these threads until we get promoted?

[Tuna]

99 points

[TrentFox]

1 minute ago, Aus Fox said:

Where does the 93 points for automatic promotion come from? I would be fairly confident two of Leeds, Southampton and Ipswich will get past this points tally.

I think it’s the historical benchmark that has guaranteed automatic promotion? 🤷. Like you, I don’t think it will be enough this season as the league is so polarised. 

[TrentFox]

1 minute ago, Tuna said:

99 points

Quite. 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses would almost certainly do it. We’d have to implode spectacularly not to be able to achieve that now. 

[st albans fox]

We need to win half our games - 96 will be more than enough imo. Reckon 2nd will be 95 max and probably a few less 

[Aus Fox]

3 minutes ago, Lionator said:

The real question, how many more of these threads until we get promoted?

If we can average 1.3 new mathematics based points threads per game, that gives us just over 20 new threads, which even in this crazy season should get us over the line for the automatics - maybe one more thread for the title.

[lnkstern]

As was said before, 93 points has always got a team automatically promoted in the history of the Championship.

 

Of course, any particular year can be an outlier, and this one might be.

 

Good thing we have the potential to garner well more than 93 points, in case they are needed.

[KFS]

13 more wins makes this squad the greatest ever. Thats what im looking at 

[5waller5]

6 hours ago, The Syrup said:

Doubt we'll need it but our massive GD compared to the next best one (+41, next best is +26 for Leeds as it stands) is an additional safety net should it be needed.

If we had such catastrophic form that they match our points then this GD will have gone. 
 

if we lose 5 that they win then a minimum of -10 to GD, that’s assuming single GD games throughout which is unlikely 

[Happy Fox]

I reckon our match against Birmingham will be our promotion confirmed game.
 

So if we get at least a minimum of 19 points from our next 9 games we are almost there. 

Edited 4 February by Happy Fox

[cruzFOX]

We will get whatever points are needed to get top spot & promotion.

we will also beat both Leeds and Southampton. The players want to win emphatically. If they can they will try to avoid our closest challengers having bragging rights to have beaten us. Our players will have a point to prove you watch.

this team is getting better & better.

[Trav Le Bleu]

10 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Mathematically speaking, the maximum points each team can get is:

Leicester 120

Southampton 112

Ipswich 110

Leeds 108

WBA 99

Hull 96

Sunderland 94 

Middlesborough 94 

Cov 92

Norwich 92

Cardiff 91

PNE 90

Watford 89

Plymouth 87

Bristol City 86

Blackburn 84

Birmingham 83

Millwall 81

Swansea 81

Stoke 80

Huddersfield 79

QPR 76

 

So mathematically speaking, 111points make certain of promotion. So 13 wins from our remaining games - If Southampton and Ipswich achieved maximum points from their games - as they still have to play each other 12 wins and 2 draws would make it certain.

Except if we get those 120 pts then that's 3 pts off the total of every team we play.

[Trav Le Bleu]

1 hour ago, Happy Fox said:

I reckon our match against Birmingham will be our promotion confirmed game.
 

So if we get at least a minimum of 19 points from our next 9 games we are almost there. 

Now THAT'S a Happy Fox! 

[Finnegan]

By the time we go to Elland Road they could be needing almost a full point a game more than us to catch us, no? 

 

Mad. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

10 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Where does the 93 points for automatic promotion come from? I would be fairly confident two of Leeds, Southampton and Ipswich will get past this points tally.

Weird how opinions differ, I’m fairly confident that Leeds and Ipswich will not hit 94 points, would mean they need to sit at 2+ PPG for the rest of the season. 
 

I think Southampton will probably get 94 though, just not the other two.