Oasisedup Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 Morning all, Just after the last day of the Premier League, I was looking at the odds for the Championship and saw that some bookies had us second favourites to win the thing behind QPR (some had us ahead of QPR). I was honestly quite surprised, given the restraints of FFP and the possibility of a hangover from that day at Vicarage Road. Admittedly, since our lack of activity on the transfer market, we've slipped to fourth, but it got me thinking that, in recent years, we always seem to be right up there in the bookies' eyes. Even before the Thais came, we were well in the top 3/4 of the odds-table. Has anyone had a bet on us, this year or every year? Anyone having a bet against? I tend to avoid betting on my own team - but surely the bookies can't continue to be so wrong about us! I've written a blog on us and our odds of winning the thing, so if you're bored on a Sunday morning - have a read a let me know your thoughts: http://inbignigewetrust.blogspot.co.uk/ Cheers all.
LeicesterAreGoingUp Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 i bet on us to gain promotion after the barnsley game, £10 on 9/1 and we almost did it
Collymore Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 Ironically this has probably been the most stable time for years. A manager going into their second preseason in a row? Unheard of. I think we've got as good a chance as any year, not that I think we'll win it...
Ashley Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 One bookie will price selected markets and other bookies will follow, always happens. You get the 'mug' punters who only bet on favourites I suppose its easy money for them. I would make us around a 15-18/1 shot for the League title next year.
Fox92 Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 I never, ever bet on Leicester. I've already picked up my ante-post sheet from Betfred, and I think I'm going for Bolton (they are 9/1).
DennisNedry Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 I also never bet on Leicester. There's nothing worse than the double whammy of City losing and losing money as well.
alwyne webster Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 If as you say there are no movements in the transfer market i cant see us being a good bet at right now, not unless you want very good odds, but for me ill wait a while to see if there are any movements in the transfer market when i bet i go for shorter odds and i find i have more success, so for me its wait and see.and i bet quite a bit on sport,by the way my latest bet is serena williams for ladies wimbledon title and nadal for the mens ,there the kind of bets i like to make.
Guest BlueBrett Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 Reading at 11s with Coral is going to look like price of the century by Christmas
Filbert The Fox Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 I'll be putting £10 on Leicester this season. My dark horses are Ipswich
AS78UK Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 Reading at 11s with Coral is going to look like price of the century by Christmas Bet on Leicester when odds make sense. Said it before 10/1 does makes sense as we have a chance, especially the way we have destroyed some teams last season. Just need consistency this year. However got to agree Reading look great value and can't see Bolton being to far off. That's where my money is going. Reading at 11s with Coral is going to look like price of the century by Christmas Bet on Leicester when odds make sense. Said it before 10/1 does makes sense as we have a chance, especially the way we have destroyed some teams last season. Just need consistency this year. However got to agree Reading look great value and can't see Bolton being to far off. That's where my money is going.
Oasisedup Posted 23 June 2013 Author Posted 23 June 2013 I agree Reading are a great shout. So much so I'm going to have a flutter now. Wigan and QPR could go either way. Bolton look good. As to us, it all depends if we start buying and who....
Guest Col city fan Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 I can't believe this bit then again I couldn't last season either. What the bookies are basing this on I really don't know? I genuinely believe we will be 7th again (given how things stand NOW). However, I have a bad feeling that we may well struggle and would not be at all surprised if we finish middle or just above.
The Horse's Mouth Posted 23 June 2013 Posted 23 June 2013 We haven't lost all of our first team and unlike QPR we aren't looking to sell. We're looking to sell dead wood granted but none of them were near the first team in the first place. At least under the Pearson regime.
Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo Posted 24 June 2013 Posted 24 June 2013 I can't believe this bit then again I couldn't last season either. What the bookies are basing this on I really don't know? I genuinely believe we will be 7th again (given how things stand NOW). However, I have a bad feeling that we may well struggle and would not be at all surprised if we finish middle or just above. Barring our terrible run of form, we still managed 6th as for most of the season we played very well and were 2nd (and very briefly 1st) on merit for a while. There's no sign of any mass squad clearances or managerial shift and we should have a fully-fit squad come start of the season Unless something drastic happens, why wouldn't you have us down as one of the favourites? Unless all you remember from last season was February and March
Zingari Posted 24 June 2013 Posted 24 June 2013 We seem to have had a long tradition of promotion/relegation between the top 2 flights so i suppose it's no great surprise if we are often one of the bookies favourites to go either way.
broughtonblue Posted 24 June 2013 Posted 24 June 2013 Ive had a few quid on us as champions at 11/1 also a few quid on us being promoted 5/1
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 25 June 2013 Posted 25 June 2013 The fact that we're so prominent in a promotion market suggests we must be quite popular in the market. You have to remember a market is formed by two key variables - the bookies impression of the likeliness of an outcome AND the amounts of money flowing on certain selections. If bookies know that historically Leicester are reasonably backed (unlike say a less fashionable Reading), they're more likely to price us up at shorter to reduce the risk to them if we do win the league. I dare say that with the Champioship bookies will also take a bit of punt by putting up 'false' favourites. Remember the year Middlesburgh were fav's under Gordon Strachan? I bet the bookies figured that putting them up as favourites might attact money to them and were confident in getting that result beat? It should also be pointed out we're 11-1 (bet365 - shorter elsewhere) to WIN the league. Promotion by any means we're 7-2 (various). The fact that Ladbrokes price us quite a bit shorter than those odds are a positive sign too, because although they are generally very stingy they also know their apples!
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 25 June 2013 Posted 25 June 2013 One more thing - this is just the sort of market Betfair is handy for because you have the potential to cash out during the season. Generally speaking Betfair is crap, but they have their uses for this type of thing and Ante Post horses.
The Year Of The Fox Posted 25 June 2013 Posted 25 June 2013 I tend to back against us. Must've won about four bets last season doing that. The first one I stuck £25 on Palace to beat us at home. Won £150 off that. Easy money really!
Hollism Posted 26 June 2013 Posted 26 June 2013 I tend to back against us. Must've won about four bets last season doing that. The first one I stuck £25 on Palace to beat us at home. Won £150 off that. Easy money really! I do this on occasion. Only put a little bit on us not to win sometimes. Had £20 on Watford/Draw in the regular season game, turned into about £75, then put it all back on Bolton to win on the last day. That way, we were either in the POs, or I was about £200 up. I always do it so that I win an amount that is less valuable than a Leicester win to me. ie- I put a bet on that I'd prefer to lose.
ThurnbyLodgeFox Posted 27 June 2013 Posted 27 June 2013 how can people be negative towards where we're likely to finish? I would NEVER of said at the beginning of last season that Hull would be in the top 2, possibly the top 6. Pearson has 1 promotion and 2 top 6 finishes in 3 season with us, not a bad record It's third time lucky for us, like it was with Cardiff, and feel that we will make it this year I'll be putting a bet on us to go up
Basingstoke Fox Posted 27 June 2013 Posted 27 June 2013 My only bet against us was Kermorgant to score when Charlton came to the KP in February. It was written in the stars!
MK fox Posted 27 June 2013 Posted 27 June 2013 I stuck 5 on us to get promotion before the Birmingham game at 23-1, mates laughed at me and must admit it was after a few beers, they all wished they had after forest though, odds weren't so long then.
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