Yet another final places prediction.

[Deucalion]

Here are my predictions on final positions based on form over the last six games for the other teams currently in the top 6.

 

QPR - 98

 

Burnley - 90

 

Forest - 85

 

Reading - 79

 

Derby - 75

 

So...we need 99 to win the championship and 91 to be promoted.  In other words, 32 points or 24.

 

In other words, despite the musing in the national press, this season is far from over.

 

 

[MGLCFC]

Where would we be?

[Deucalion]

Where would we be?

 

If we average 1 point per game, as we did beyond 29 games last season, then we would finish on 83 points and be 4th.

 

If we average mid-table form of 1.5 points per game, then we will finish with 91 points and be promoted.

 

If we average top of the table form of 2 points per game, we will be champions with 99 points.

 

I haven't considered Leicester's form over the last six because I don't think it is representative.  I don't think it's likely Leicester will win the next 5 and draw one.  But if we do, we will finish as champions on 109 points.

 

 

[MooseBreath]

Bit generous for Burnley and QPR as they're both unbeaten in six. Extend current form to 10 games and you get QPR finishing on 88 and Burnley on 85... bit more realistic imo, leaves us needing 1.18ppg for promotion.

[Happy Fox]

We only need 7 more wins to get automatic promotion.

[Aus Fox]

If we average 1 point per game, as we did beyond 29 games last season, then we would finish on 83 points and be 4th.

If we average mid-table form of 1.5 points per game, then we will finish with 91 points and be promoted.

If we average top of the table form of 2 points per game, we will be champions with 99 points.

I haven't considered Leicester's form over the last six because I don't think it is representative. I don't think it's likely Leicester will win the next 5 and draw one. But if we do, we will finish as champions on 109 points.

So not considered Leicesters form but feel QPR and Burnley will continue there's?

Form now has no baring on the end of the season run in, you have injuries suspensions to take into consideration as well as bottle as promotion gets closer some players thrive while others go to peices.

Also you play some teams who normally you would beat but are fighting for their life's for survival, Play off spots and automatics.

There is no way QPR or Burley will not slip up, our position says though we can slip up 3 more times than them and still go up.

[shailen]

I'd suggest that we need at least 92 points to guarantee 2nd spot which is 8 wins and 1 draw. In order to get top spot 98 points should be enough which requires 33 points or 11 wins. Given we have average form from now to the end of the season, which is 5 wins 6 draws and 5 loses, that would give us a total of 88 points which should just about be on the boundary of automatic promotion. So barring a bad run of results, and other teams taking maximum points from most games we should be in the promiseland. But you never know in football...

[Deucalion]

I need a surefire way to predict the future so I can stop stressing and looking at the table every five minutes !!

 

[lcfc1994]

I need a surefire way to predict the future so I can stop stressing and looking at the table every five minutes !!

I keep worrying that it will change if I don't check it

[Deucalion]

Updated following tonight's result.

 

QPR - 93  (2.16/ 2.05)

 

Burnley - 90  (2/ 2.05)

 

Forest - 85  (2/ 2.35)

 

Derby - 84  (1.83/ 2.25)

 

Reading - 79  (2/ 2.75)

 

To me it looks like Derby winning was definitely the better result for us.

 

The first number in brackets indicates a teams current ppg.  The second number indicate the ppg required for that team to reach 91 points.  If it is in bold, then the team is on course to pick up more than 91 points.

 

For the record, for Leicester to equal 91 points, we will need to win 8 more games, which translates as 1.5 points per game.

[Mark_from_USA]

QPR won't get 93 points, nor Burnley 90.  QPR just don't score enough goals.  Burnley have been drawing too many games since their big run at the beginning of the season.

 

The second spot will be under 90 points, I predict.

[Deucalion]

QPR won't get 93 points, nor Burnley 90.  QPR just don't score enough goals.  Burnley have been drawing too many games since their big run at the beginning of the season.

 

The second spot will be under 90 points, I predict.

 

Fair enough !!

[Deucalion]

Here is the next installment of the thread which entertains no-one but me !!

 

QPR - 93  (2.16/ 2.05)

 

Burnley - 91  (2/ 2.06)

 

Forest - 91  (2.33/ 2.35)

 

Derby - 84  (1.83/ 2.25)

 

Reading - 79  (2/ 2.75)

 

Burnley and Forest are highlighted as their values have been changed.  

 

Forest are now averaging a tiny amount less form  than they need to to finish on more than 91 points, and according to this form based prediction method, look the second most likely team to finish above us, behind QPR.  Burnley are 6/100s shy of the form needed to overtake us too.

 

This week's results did not go for us and the fight for the automatic promotion places is looking tight.

[_Fatboyslow_]

I need a surefire way to predict the future so I can stop stressing and looking at the table every five minutes !!

I know the feeling

[Fox92]

Here is the next installment of the thread which entertains no-one but me !!

 

QPR - 93  (2.16/ 2.05)

 

Burnley - 91  (2/ 2.06)

 

Forest - 91  (2.33/ 2.35)

 

Derby - 84  (1.83/ 2.25)

 

Reading - 79  (2/ 2.75)

 

Burnley and Forest are highlighted as their values have been changed.  

 

Forest are now averaging a tiny amount less form  than they need to to finish on more than 91 points, and according to this form based prediction method, look the second most likely team to finish above us, behind QPR.  Burnley are 6/100s shy of the form needed to overtake us too.

 

This week's results did not go for us and the fight for the automatic promotion places is looking tight.

Nah man, I'm enjoying it. I quite like all these prediction/calculation threads.

It will be tight, yet again, but teams around us still have to take points from each other, even if they only draw. QPR are at home to Reading on Sunday, for example, while Burnley play both Derby and Nottingham Forest in coming weeks.

[Deucalion]

Nah man, I'm enjoying it. I quite like all these prediction/calculation threads.

It will be tight, yet again, but teams around us still have to take points from each other, even if they only draw. QPR are at home to Reading on Sunday, for example, while Burnley play both Derby and Nottingham Forest in coming weeks.

 

Yeah, I enjoy it too.  What I'm hoping for is to track the form of other teams to the point when it becomes implausible they will catch us.  It already looks implausible that Reading will catch us for example, although not mathematically certain they won't.

 

  

[Oasisedup]

Yeah, I enjoy it too.  What I'm hoping for is to track the form of other teams to the point when it becomes implausible they will catch us.  It already looks implausible that Reading will catch us for example, although not mathematically certain they won't.

 

  

 

I don't know why you'd look at the last 6 games of everyone but Leicester in trying to figure out where everyone will finish, though. Especially because you say that Leicester's form over the last 6 is "not representative". Surely, that applies to every team in your table?

 

That's the problem with only looking at 6 games. It shows recent form, but is of limited use in predicting final outcome.

 

We all know that Burnley, QPR and Forest will not all get over 90 points. No way.

 

There's a really good table that looks at the form of all teams over the last 30 games or so and ranks each team accordingly. It shows that we are top by 8 points: http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/championship/table

[Deucalion]

I don't know why you'd look at the last 6 games of everyone but Leicester in trying to figure out where everyone will finish, though. Especially because you say that Leicester's form over the last 6 is "not representative". Surely, that applies to every team in your table?

 

That's the problem with only looking at 6 games. It shows recent form, but is of limited use in predicting final outcome.

 

We all know that Burnley, QPR and Forest will not all get over 90 points. No way.

 

There's a really good table that looks at the form of all teams over the last 30 games or so and ranks each team accordingly. It shows that we are top by 8 points: http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/championship/table

 

The Championship table is of limited use when trying to predict the future.

[Deucalion]

Obsessive...moi???

 

QPR - 93  (2.16/ 2.05)

 

Forest - 91  (2.33/ 2.35)

 

Burnley - 85  (1.66/ 2.06)

 

Derby - 84  (1.83/ 2.25)

 

Reading - 79  (2/ 2.75)

 

Only Burnley involved today and they dropped points.  On current form, they would finish the season with 85 points and to finish ahead of them, Leicester would only have to pick up 1.125 points per game until the end of the season.  Are Burnley out of the race?

 

Forest on the other hand are still right in it, and according to this little obsession, are the second most likely team to finish above us.  

 

Very big game on Wednesday !!

[Guest kristianity77]

 

Obsessive...moi???

 

QPR - 93  (2.16/ 2.05)

 

Forest - 91  (2.33/ 2.35)

 

Burnley - 85  (1.66/ 2.06)

 

Derby - 84  (1.83/ 2.25)

 

Reading - 79  (2/ 2.75)

 

Only Burnley involved today and they dropped points.  On current form, they would finish the season with 85 points and to finish ahead of them, Leicester would only have to pick up 1.125 points per game until the end of the season.  Are Burnley out of the race?

 

Forest on the other hand are still right in it, and according to this little obsession, are the second most likely team to finish above us.  

 

Very big game on Wednesday !!

 

Are Burnley out of the race, 4 points currently clear of 3rd?  What are you smoking?

[Bluetintedspecs]

Here is the next installment of the thread which entertains no-one but me !!

 

QPR - 93  (2.16/ 2.05)

 

Burnley - 91  (2/ 2.06)

 

Forest - 91  (2.33/ 2.35)

 

Derby - 84  (1.83/ 2.25)

 

Reading - 79  (2/ 2.75)

 

Burnley and Forest are highlighted as their values have been changed.  

 

Forest are now averaging a tiny amount less form  than they need to to finish on more than 91 points, and according to this form based prediction method, look the second most likely team to finish above us, behind QPR.  Burnley are 6/100s shy of the form needed to overtake us too.

 

This week's results did not go for us and the fight for the automatic promotion places is looking tight.

It entertains me Deucalion, I can picture you pacing up and down in a frenzy! Let me make things worse for you, can you do one for me building in the 'twists & turns' factor please?I am sure there's an algorithm to help not so sure about your nerves though!

[Deucalion]

Are Burnley out of the race, 4 points currently clear of 3rd?  What are you smoking?

 

On current form they will finish behind both Forest and QPR.

 

 

It entertains me Deucalion, I can picture you pacing up and down in a frenzy! Let me make things worse for you, can you do one for me building in the 'twists & turns' factor please?I am sure there's an algorithm to help not so sure about your nerves though!

 

'Twists and turns' will be reflected in peaks and troughs in form.  More so as I'm only looking at 6 games to predict form which makes it quite reactive.

 

And don't worry, this thread keeps me occupied until my next prescription comes through !!  

[Bluetintedspecs]

On current form they will finish behind both Forest and QPR.

 

 

 

'Twists and turns' will be reflected in peaks and troughs in form.  More so as I'm only looking at 6 games to predict form which makes it quite reactive.

 

And don't worry, this thread keeps me occupied until my next prescription comes through !!  

Good man

[Benji]

On current form they will finish behind both Forest and QPR.

 

 

Bearing in mind most of the top 6 play each other over the coming weeks your form table will probably go tits up while the real top 6 stays pretty much the same...

[Deucalion]

Bearing in mind most of the top 6 play each other over the coming weeks your form table will probably go tits up while the real top 6 stays pretty much the same...

 

Gawd...everyone's a critic !!  

 

I don't see why this is so.  The table is a prediction of final places if teams continue to pick up points at the same rate as they have for the last six games.

 

What it should show is if a team is beginning to slow down or pick up the pace.  I think my table is showing that now with Burnley struggling to pick up points while Forest are showing the kind of form which would see them finish on above 91 points.

 

I don't think this is apparent from just looking at the league table, where it appears Burnley are our main rivals while Forest are a long way distant.

 

The only way to prove the point or not is to see how the table looks at the end of the season and whether this thread predicted it.