MattGamble92 Posted 20 February 2014 Posted 20 February 2014 I applaud the OP of this thread because it is very well thought out and an interesting read. However....If 3 teams finish above 90 points it certainly will not be either of our East Midlands rivals. Not a chance in hell Forest will continue any sort of run in my opinion.
Pegosteve Posted 20 February 2014 Posted 20 February 2014 Interesting I look at last 6 games, last 12 and the number of remaining games e.g. at present last 15 (or 16 for QPR) So here goes!! Form last 6 we need 91 for auto and 94 champions (Derby 2nd) Form last 12 we need 87 for auto and 89 for champions (Derby 2nd) Form last 15 we need 85 for auto and 90 for champions (Derby 2nd) I was surprised to see Derby matching us over last 15 games - 33 points each! If you take 90 as the magic number then we need to average 1.47 points per game which is currently what Sheffield Wed have managed over the last 15. In order for any other team to get to 90 they have to get the following over their remaining games Burnley - 30 Derby - 32 QPR - 34 Forest - 35 This sort of form is top 3 over last 15 games this season, its a big ask from any of these. Last season only Bolton finished the last 15 games with 30 points. I know it's only stats but we could be looking at between 85 and 88 as being enough.
reynard Posted 20 February 2014 Posted 20 February 2014 Here's what comes of being an insomniac. The first projection is based upon the season's average, using points gained at home and away, factoring in whether they were achieved against sides from the top or bottom half of the table and whether these were got away from home or at home. So based on that and using the current table to see which sides play where for the rest of the season this leads to the following projection. Leicester 68 + 33 =101 Burnley 60 + 28 = 88 Derby 58 + 29 = 87 Qpr 56 + 30 = 86 Forest 55 + 27 = 82 As sides improve or get worse the following projection looks just at the last 5 away results and the last 5 home results of each team. Leicester 68 + 39 = 107 Burnley 60 + 30 = 90 Derby 58 + 30 = 88 QPR 56 + 25 = 81 Forest 55 + 30 = 85 The figures below give an indication of the difficulty of remaining fixtures for each sides based upon two tables of home and away form. 1 point is given for the hardest match (eg Leicester away) and 24 for the easiest (eg Barnsley at home). Obviously this is a pretty crude measure but basically the higher the number the easier in theory is the run in. Also QPR have 1 more game to play than the rest. QPR 227 Derby 196 Leicester 195 Burnley 192 Forest 183 So based on all that it looks as if 89/90 should be enough but it looks as if all the top 5 are likely to get at least 80 points and the top three at least 87 so I would say 93 to be certain. I have not used anything other than pure stats so no personal feelings/hunches etc but I would be pleasantly surprised if we continue to gather our current points per game ratio so the gap might well narrow beteen 1st and 2nd. There's a long way to go yet!
Deucalion Posted 20 February 2014 Author Posted 20 February 2014 Good work and interesting reading my fellow soothsayers !!
Pegosteve Posted 20 February 2014 Posted 20 February 2014 Last team to blow such a lead were Blackburn 91/92 who mustered only 13 points in their last 15 games. But they did go on to beat us in the play off final thanks to George Courtney being a crap ref!
Happy Fox Posted 20 February 2014 Posted 20 February 2014 Promotion will either be wrapped up at Reading away or QPR at home imo.
Fox92 Posted 20 February 2014 Posted 20 February 2014 Promotion will either be wrapped up at Reading away or QPR at home imo. Well my calculations that I do after the weekend games resulted in QPR as well (and I had us down for a point yesterday so we're on course).
Pegosteve Posted 22 February 2014 Posted 22 February 2014 OK an update Last 6 Game Average Last 12 Game Av Last 14 Game Av Foxes 104 108 106 Burnley 86 90 90 Derby 94 89 93 QPR 73 77 79 Forest 81 82 84 Reading 71 69 70 So we are looking at between 87 and 91 for auto and 91 to 95 for champions. We`re now into the teens to get to 90 points where as Burnley need 27 and Derby 29 points. They both need one hell of a good run in to get there. We only need to average 1.36 points per game. 4 points better off than Cardiff at this point last season. Its just a matter of time and I´m a pessimist!!
Deucalion Posted 22 February 2014 Author Posted 22 February 2014 Here's an update, but as a change, let's include Leicester's form over the last 6 games too. The first figure in brackets is a teams form over 6 games. The second figure is now the points per game they need to average to catch up with Leicester on current form. Leicester - 104 (2.33) Derby - 94 (2.33/ 3.14 ) Burnley - 91 ( 2 / 2.92) Forest - 81 (1.83/ 3.5) QPR - 74 (1.16 / 3.26) Reading - 71 (1.5/ 3.92) Therefore, if Leicester continue to pick up points at 2.33 points per game, the only team with a theoretical possibility of catching us is Burnley, who need to average 2.92 ppg. All other teams need a decline in our form to catch us, as they require more than 3 ppg as things stand. So looks rosy at the moment and Derby look likely to take second, although Burnley v Derby next week might have a huge say in this. With Burnley beating Forest 3-1 today, will anyone fancy playing them at the minute. And of course, Leicester travel to Burnley in a few weeks in another game which has every chance of changing things around on this prediction table. But...so far so good !!
Happy Fox Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 88 points and we are as good as promoted, Sheffield Wednesday at home is still my prediction for the game that seals it.
fuchsntf Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 It has been sealed....Doubters, non believers, pessis, Alan Young believes...
Carl the Llama Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 Here's an update, but as a change, let's include Leicester's form over the last 6 games too. The first figure in brackets is a teams form over 6 games. The second figure is now the points per game they need to average to catch up with Leicester on current form. Leicester - 104 (2.33) Derby - 94 (2.33/ 3.14 ) Burnley - 91 ( 2 / 2.92) Forest - 81 (1.83/ 3.5) QPR - 74 (1.16 / 3.26) Reading - 71 (1.5/ 3.92) Therefore, if Leicester continue to pick up points at 2.33 points per game, the only team with a theoretical possibility of catching us is Burnley, who need to average 2.92 ppg. All other teams need a decline in our form to catch us, as they require more than 3 ppg as things stand. So looks rosy at the moment and Derby look likely to take second, although Burnley v Derby next week might have a huge say in this. With Burnley beating Forest 3-1 today, will anyone fancy playing them at the minute. And of course, Leicester travel to Burnley in a few weeks in another game which has every chance of changing things around on this prediction table. But...so far so good !! So if we carry on at a rate of 14 out of every 18 points we only need Burnley to drop points twice to guarantee first place. Our ppg for the season so far is 2.29 which if continued would see us finish on 103 points, in which case Burnley would need 2.86 ppg to match us which allows them the luxury of one failure to win, after 2 matches dropped they can't make that total. Derby are the only other team who can make 103 but have to win all 14 matches. If we maintain the sacred 2 ppg then we'd finish on 99. Burnley need 2.57ppg to match that, Derby 2.71. The last 2 cases are faesible for us to attain, but it's very unlikely that Burnley or Derby can manage their requirements to match us, so to me it looks like we'll be champions, let alone top 2.
bluesbrothers Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 If QPR finish above 85 points I will bake and eat my own faeces.
Foxes Blue Blood Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 So if we carry on at a rate of 14 out of every 18 points we only need Burnley to drop points once to guarantee first place. Our ppg for the season so far is 2.29 which if continued would see us finish on 105 points, in which case Burnley would need 2.8 ppg to match us which allows them the luxury of one failure to win, after 2 matches dropped they can't make that total. Derby are the only other team who can make 105 but have to win all 15 matches. If we maintain the sacred 2 ppg then we'd finish on 101. Burnley need 2.5ppg to match that, Derby 2.67. The last 2 cases are faesible for us to attain, but it's very unlikely that Burnley or Derby can manage their requirements to match us, so to me it looks like we'll be champions, let alone top 2. Derby are on 61 pts with 14 to play,max 42 points = 103 total maximum.
maynefox Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 I'm so nervous/excited about the run in. I'm starting to believe but I'm trying not to get myself a head! Good work on the statistics by all of you guys
Lionator Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 I think on field performances are more telling than statistics. The way we rallied against Forest, the way we brushed aside play off contenders in Ipswich so emphatically. We're nearly there.
Carl the Llama Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 Derby are on 61 pts with 14 to play,max 42 points = 103 total maximum. I've had a bit of a mare there, made all the calculations with 15 games instead of 14 fixing it now...
Deucalion Posted 23 February 2014 Author Posted 23 February 2014 Here's another way of looking at things. Games & points 15 (45) 14 (42) 13 (39) 12 (36) 11 (33) 10 (30) 9 (27) 8 (24) 7 (21) 6 (18) 5 (15) 4 (12) 3 (9) 2 (6) 1 (3) Leicester 2.33 74 76 78 80 82 85 87 90 92 94 97 99 101 104 Burnley 2 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 98 91 Derby 2.33 63 66 68 70 73 75 77 80 82 84 87 89 91 94 QPR 1.16 57 58 59 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 70 72 72 73 Forest 1.83 57 59 60 62 64 66 68 70 71 73 75 77 79 81 Reading 1.5 52 53 55 56 58 59 61 62 64 65 67 68 70 71 This is a projection of when Leicester will achieve promotion. It is based on all teams continuing to pick up points at the same rate as they have for the last 6 games. According to this table, Leicester will not actually secure promotion until the third game from the end, which is Bolton away. They will also secure the championship on the same day. We will qualify for the playoffs much earlier though. According to this projection we will be in the playoffs with 8 games remaining, which is Wigan away. Edit - this makes much more sense in the table I pasted it in.
Steven Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 Edit - this makes much more sense in the table I pasted it in. Screen print and load the image file.
Deucalion Posted 23 February 2014 Author Posted 23 February 2014 I'll try to attach it. Says I can't. Don't matter.
Jobyfox Posted 23 February 2014 Posted 23 February 2014 I'm so nervous/excited about the run in. I'm starting to believe but I'm trying not to get myself a head! Good work on the statistics by all of you guys No matter how excited you get I would still advise that you should get yourself a head!
Deucalion Posted 1 March 2014 Author Posted 1 March 2014 Shall I do this today? Might as well, only takes about 10 minutes. Leicester - 104 (2.33) Burnley - 96 ( 2.33 / 3 ) Derby - 89 (2.16/ 3.38 ) Wigan - 87 ( 2.5 / 3.75) Reading - 73 (1.66/ 3.92) Forest - 72 (1.33/ 3.84) QPR - 69 (0.83 / 3.42) So...as expected, if Leicester carry on the kind of form they have been, the only team who can catch us are Burnley, who would have to win every game to finish one place above us on 105 points. Also, every other team has to average more than 3 ppg to catch us. So it's all done and dusted then? I don't think so. Burnley play Leicester at their place which my pessimistic instinct tells me they will win. We also have a few away games coming up, so there is every chance our ppg rate will drop a little. Enough for two teams to catch us? I doubt it. Wigan make their first appearance due to pushing their way into the top six. They are on incredible form and if they keep it up, this table predicts a 4th place finish. Interestingly, QPR's current relegation form sees them drop out of the playoff places. Whatever happens and whether this table proves to be accurate or not, we are in for a great end of season. One thing which might be missing from the run in is something missing from today's game against Charlton too. The missing ingredient is stress and anxiety. It all seems to easy at the moment !!
lancyclaret Posted 3 March 2014 Posted 3 March 2014 96 needed for second place is ridiculous - when are the lower team going to start their relegation fight?
Deucalion Posted 3 March 2014 Author Posted 3 March 2014 96 needed for second place is ridiculous - when are the lower team going to start their relegation fight? Last season was the opposite, with Hull promoted on a record low total, Leicester qualifying for the playoffs with 68 points and a team relegated on 54 was it? Points are not distributed evenly this season, the top teams are taking them all !!
Jobyfox Posted 3 March 2014 Posted 3 March 2014 I'd just like to say that this is my favourite final points prediction thread. I have a spreadsheet going that does something similar, but I won't go into details. Keep it up!! For what it's worth I've worked on the basis that 92 points will guarantee promotion since the beginning of the season. My spreadsheet drops teams out when they can no longer reach this figure. It all helps relieve the stress.
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