Bluetintedspecs Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 Bearing in mind most of the top 6 play each other over the coming weeks your form table will probably go tits up while the real top 6 stays pretty much the same... That's the point though Benji! Forecasts are purely that, when based on trends it can only ever be a bit of fun. One game at a time, watch it unfold and enjoy the ride! COYB
Benji Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 Gawd...everyone's a critic !! I don't see why this is so. The table is a prediction of final places if teams continue to pick up points at the same rate as they have for the last six games. What it should show is if a team is beginning to slow down or pick up the pace. I think my table is showing that now with Burnley struggling to pick up points while Forest are showing the kind of form which would see them finish on above 91 points. I don't think this is apparent from just looking at the league table, where it appears Burnley are our main rivals while Forest are a long way distant. The only way to prove the point or not is to see how the table looks at the end of the season and whether this thread predicted it. Because if teams play each other they can't both win which will have a big effect on your six game form - but over the course of the season the points even out. Don't mind the thread, everyone's excited/nervous etc. Just don't think you can take much at face value so wouldn't give yourself a heart attack over it. No reason all the top 6 can't win all of their remaining games or lose all their remaining games (save against each other).
AKCJ Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 On current form they will finish behind both Forest and QPR. 'Twists and turns' will be reflected in peaks and troughs in form. More so as I'm only looking at 6 games to predict form which makes it quite reactive. And don't worry, this thread keeps me occupied until my next prescription comes through !! On current form, they're second. Marathon, not a sprint. They're second because they've been the second best side this season so far.
Deucalion Posted 15 February 2014 Author Posted 15 February 2014 Because if teams play each other they can't both win which will have a big effect on your six game form - but over the course of the season the points even out. Don't mind the thread, everyone's excited/nervous etc. Just don't think you can take much at face value so wouldn't give yourself a heart attack over it. No reason all the top 6 can't win all of their remaining games or lose all their remaining games (save against each other). I'm not, I'm thoroughly enjoying it !! Seasons like this don't come along all that often and I'm enjoying watching things change with every passing game. On current form, they're second. Marathon, not a sprint. They're second because they've been the second best side this season so far. Ah...but every distance race is won by a sprint at the end !!
Smudge Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 The probable top 2 column is calculated by taking the current form average points and multiplying them by the remaining games. When you look at it, it's a big ask for anyone to get to 90 other than us Some of the requirements to reach that magical 90 points
Happy Fox Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 That is interesting cheers smudge, it is clear to me that the sooner we reach the 87 points figure we are as good as up.
Pegosteve Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 If your take last 12 game average final points will be: Us 2.42 - 106 Burnley 1.75 - 86 QPR 1.75 - 86 Derby 2 - 87 Forest 2.17 - 89 Reading 1.33 - 68 So 88 should be enough 21 points needed looking at it this way. There will still be twists and turns unexpected results get to 90 and I think its enough.
Deucalion Posted 15 February 2014 Author Posted 15 February 2014 The probable top 2 column is calculated by taking the current form average points and multiplying them by the remaining games. When you look at it, it's a big ask for anyone to get to 90 other than us Some of the requirements to reach that magical 90 points Did you work this out? Very impressive. I think form is taken over more games than I have been doing, but I have explained why I wanted it like that. This table also agrees that Forest are a danger to us rather than Burnley, but also suggests that Derby are the other danger rather than QPR. Time will tell !! One more thing, I haven't included Leicester's form because I don't think it is reasonable to expect Leicester to win 5 out of the next 6 games. To include Leicester would just make the outcome seem like a forgone conclusion, whereas I don't believe it is.
Smudge Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 Did you work this out? Very impressive. I think form is taken over more games than I have been doing, but I have explained why I wanted it like that. This table also agrees that Forest are a danger to us rather than Burnley, but also suggests that Derby are the other danger rather than QPR. Time will tell !! One more thing, I haven't included Leicester's form because I don't think it is reasonable to expect Leicester to win 5 out of the next 6 games. To include Leicester would just make the outcome seem like a forgone conclusion, whereas I don't believe it is. Yep I have been doing it for about 4 weeks. keeps me off the streets The "form" is taken just over those last few games. You may be right about Forest but attaining a 2.25 average will take some doing. Burnley's 2 is probably more likely but I guess we'll see eh?
Deucalion Posted 15 February 2014 Author Posted 15 February 2014 Yep I have been doing it for about 4 weeks. keeps me off the streets The "form" is taken just over those last few games. You may be right about Forest but attaining a 2.25 average will take some doing. Burnley's 2 is probably more likely but I guess we'll see eh? Great minds think alike and all that !!
sdb Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 I personally think we have the toughest run in. i have us finishing on 87-90 points, which will be pretty touch and go.
Bluetintedspecs Posted 15 February 2014 Posted 15 February 2014 I personally think we have the toughest run in. i have us finishing on 87-90 points, which will be pretty touch and go. I personally doubt that, thought for a while now that 90 will be reached by us and definitely enough!
Deucalion Posted 16 February 2014 Author Posted 16 February 2014 Update: Forest - 91 (2.33/ 2.35) Burnley - 85 (1.66/ 2.06) Derby - 84 (1.83/ 2.25) QPR - 83 (1.66/2.18) Reading - 80 (2/ 2.73) Great weekend for City fans. No team is now currently achieving the form required to finish on more than 91 points, although Forest are very close. Even though Reading won, the task of getting into the 90s is still huge. A win for City on Wednesday would make this form based prediction table look very favourable.
Pegosteve Posted 16 February 2014 Posted 16 February 2014 Last 6 game average is making it 86 points for 2nd place and 92 to win, last 12 game average is making 88 for auto and 90 to win, both stats show Forest finishing second!
harpendenfox Posted 16 February 2014 Posted 16 February 2014 This (wonderful) thread is starting to sound a lot like Election night, with Deucalion in charge of the swingometer. "Now over to Burnley south where the returning officer is taking the stage.... "
Deucalion Posted 16 February 2014 Author Posted 16 February 2014 This (wonderful) thread is starting to sound a lot like Election night, with Deucalion in charge of the swingometer. "Now over to Burnley south where the returning officer is taking the stage.... " Fun innit !! We've got to squeeze every ounce of excitement out of this season I reckon !!
Deucalion Posted 18 February 2014 Author Posted 18 February 2014 Update: Derby - 93 (2.33/ 2.2) Forest - 91 (2.33/ 2.35) Burnley - 85 (1.66/ 2.06) QPR - 83 (1.66/2.18) Reading - 80 (2/ 2.73) A strong season for East Midlands clubs? Derby now on form to finish on over 91 points.
Aus Fox Posted 19 February 2014 Posted 19 February 2014 Update: Derby - 93 (2.33/ 2.2) Forest - 91 (2.33/ 2.35) Burnley - 85 (1.66/ 2.06) QPR - 83 (1.66/2.18) Reading - 80 (2/ 2.73) A strong season for East Midlands clubs? Derby now on form to finish on over 91 points. Is this taking into account they all still have to play each other? As this will bring down those averages
Guest Posted 19 February 2014 Posted 19 February 2014 Perhaps we should look at form over the past number of games equal to the number of remaining games. i.e. previous 11 when 11 to play, previous 6 when 6 to play, previous 2 when 2 to play. Therfore the more recent form becomes more valuable as we get closer to the end of the season. Wouldn't that be logical?
Deucalion Posted 19 February 2014 Author Posted 19 February 2014 Is this taking into account they all still have to play each other? As this will bring down those averages Nope. Perhaps we should look at form over the past number of games equal to the number of remaining games. i.e. previous 11 when 11 to play, previous 6 when 6 to play, previous 2 when 2 to play. Therfore the more recent form becomes more valuable as we get closer to the end of the season. Wouldn't that be logical? Yes that makes sense. The fact is, any formula for predicting future results is going to be wrong. I'm just trying to get a sense of who is doing well and where their current form could take them. The value in this could be judged on whether Forest and Derby are the teams chasing the auto spots come the end of the season. Looking at the table, it is difficult to see beyond the teams in second and third currently. So...time will tell whether there is any merit in doing this. So I'm not going to change it !!
Deucalion Posted 19 February 2014 Author Posted 19 February 2014 My heart is still racing after listening to the Forest game, but... Derby - 93 (2.33/ 2.2) Forest - 90 (2.33/ 2.46) Burnley - 85 (1.66/ 2.06) QPR - 83 (1.66/2.18) Reading - 80 (2/ 2.73) I don't think anyone needs any basic maths to know that was a huge result for us tonight. But...Forest's chances of finishing on above 91 points have taken a knock. Even though they are still averaging 2.33 ppg, they now need 2.46 ppg to finish on more than 91. This translates into 12 wins and one draw from 15 games. A very big ask !!
Carl the Llama Posted 19 February 2014 Posted 19 February 2014 What are City's figures by your method?
Deucalion Posted 19 February 2014 Author Posted 19 February 2014 What are City's figures by your method? If we continue our current form then we would finish on 103 points. But that makes it sound too easy, so instead I arbitrarily decided City would average around 1.5 ppg until the end of the season, which at the time, meant we would finish on 92 points. There seemed no point including the 9 game winning streak because it's very unlikely we would finish the season winning every game. From Ipswich onwards, we are three games away from the winning streak so I might include Leicester's figures.
weller54 Posted 19 February 2014 Posted 19 February 2014 Promotion target.. 88pts As Champions... 93pts
Oasisedup Posted 20 February 2014 Posted 20 February 2014 If we continue our current form then we would finish on 103 points. But that makes it sound too easy, so instead I arbitrarily decided City would average around 1.5 ppg until the end of the season, which at the time, meant we would finish on 92 points. There seemed no point including the 9 game winning streak because it's very unlikely would finish the season winning every game. From Ipswich onwards, we are three games away from the winning streak so I might include Leicester's figures. This is priceless. So you will include us now in a prediction table based on 6 games because we have drawn a couple? P'hah!
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