Bob Weasel Fox Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 Just got back from walking the wammels and cannot believe Barnsley beat Forest, and more importantly, Millwall beat Derby. This puts us in a fantastic position for promotion. Will work it out later. Very trueBut ultimately it's about what we do from here, a few more wins please
Happy Fox Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 It is not a matter of IF but when. Burnley away will see us get promotion imo, could do with Blackburn beating them tomorrow.
Smudge Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 I fookin love this thread, keep up the great work! Interested to see the impact of Direby and Red Shite losing today COYB I've done it mate post 96
Pegosteve Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 Starting to look interesting Based on Max Points we need 100 Based on season average we need 85 Based on last 6 game average we need 88 Based on last 12 game average we need 82 points Im still thinking 87 points is going to be enough, but if we are looking at 90 then in order to get there the others (bar Burnley) need Derby 2.42 per game QPR 2.31 per game Forest 2.92 per game Wigan 2.71 per game Us - 1.23 per game Whose position would you want to be in???
weller54 Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 Beat Barnsley Tuesday and we're up!!!!.. That's 16 pts clear of 3rd.. That's enough of a gap by far!!
Hirsty The Blue 94 Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 Teams around bar Burnley are really stuttering, can see 4 wins and the odd draw doing it, meaning we could lose around 8 games and still go up, ridiculous.
Pegosteve Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 16 points for 90 thats 4 wins and 4 draws or 5 wins and 1 draw and many other permutations. Im thinking Reading game will see us promoted giving us a 4 game cushion.
DANGEROUS TIGER Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 City Burnley QPR That's my three for going up, even though it is pretty obvious re the first two.
Pegosteve Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 Cant believe we are 1/20 for the title with Burnley only 8 points behind and us to play at home!
prestonfox Posted 8 March 2014 Posted 8 March 2014 18 points and the title is ours. I love the fact that paddy power now have us 1/100 for promotion, without playing the odds have halved.
Vlad the Fox Posted 12 March 2014 Posted 12 March 2014 Thats like a print out of my brain over the last few weeks.
He's not bald Posted 12 March 2014 Posted 12 March 2014 So where is the update Forget the updates,these spreadsheets good though there are have a major flaw (and it's not bad news), the column stating who can and can't catch us is incorrect because it's based on maximum points e.g if Sheff Weds beat Bournemouth then they can't catch us,likewise if Bournemouth win then Sheff Weds can't overtake us so saying they both can is wrong and that's just one example picked at random.
Guest Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 Forget the updates,these spreadsheets good though there are have a major flaw (and it's not bad news), the column stating who can and can't catch us is incorrect because it's based on maximum points e.g if Sheff Weds beat Bournemouth then they can't catch us,likewise if Bournemouth win then Sheff Weds can't overtake us so saying they both can is wrong and that's just one example picked at random. It doesn't say BOTH can it says that they CAN.
Smudge Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 So where is the update Sorry!! I forgot as I was trying to work out g forces acting on an airplane for Zing. I must get a life.
Smudge Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 Forget the updates,these spreadsheets good though there are have a major flaw (and it's not bad news), the column stating who can and can't catch us is incorrect because it's based on maximum points e.g if Sheff Weds beat Bournemouth then they can't catch us,likewise if Bournemouth win then Sheff Weds can't overtake us so saying they both can is wrong and that's just one example picked at random. I've taken it out as it was a bit superfluous, I wouldn't have described it as a major flaw though.
Fez of Mahrez Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 Like the spreadsheet Smudge - just one question: the 'current form points per game' - does that not take into account weeks when a team hasn't played, perhaps? Our current form points per game should be either the same as or better than Burnley's, shouldn't it? e.g. better record than them over last 1, 2 or 3 games, same record over last 4, 5, 6 or 7 games - if it goes back further than that then again we have the better record. Keep up the good work though!
Pegosteve Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 By the time we get to 90 points I think Derby, QPR and Wigan will not be able to achieve that many. My pessimistic view is 90 at the Reading game but if we continue in current form then it could be as soon as the Wigan game. To hit 90 now the others can only afford to drop the following points (ex Burnley) Derby - 5 points QPR - 6 points Wigan - 4 points And we only need 13!!
Tommy G Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 i am going to New York for a week on sat 12th April...if I miss out on us getting promotion I will go bladdy ballistic!!
Smudge Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 Like the spreadsheet Smudge - just one question: the 'current form points per game' - does that not take into account weeks when a team hasn't played, perhaps? Our current form points per game should be either the same as or better than Burnley's, shouldn't it? e.g. better record than them over last 1, 2 or 3 games, same record over last 4, 5, 6 or 7 games - if it goes back further than that then again we have the better record. Keep up the good work though! Yes you're right Fez I took an easy route because it would mean changing the formula after each game. Not that I mind doing that but it would possibly incur errors on my part. I'll have a think about it as it will involve a few more 'what if functions' to negate the blanks. Thanks for the comments edit : I have now changed the formulas to calculate the last 6 games for each team, maybe that's too many? Leicester and Burnley are now the same
He's not bald Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 It doesn't say BOTH can it says that they CAN. What???
maynefox Posted 13 March 2014 Posted 13 March 2014 I was very reluctant when we went on this run to say 'we are going up' etc. Seeing that to get 90 points we need to just get over 1 point/game, I think we are up (REALLY? you don't say , as some of you may say). Especially as our next few games should be winnable (in theory) before the Burnley game. I'll be happy with 7 points from the next 3 games, going into the Burnley game. I say "up" as in promotion not being Champions of the league! And thanks Smudge for the effort of doing these spreadsheets!
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