The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

I wonder if the 'Leave' campaign will suffer from fatigue... A lot of the bigger claims on why we should leave have been made already, meaning they'll have less impact when repeated towards the defining moments of the campaign.

The same could be said for the remain campaign... but given "status quo" voting intentions often win out in these things and in a way they need to keep the Leave campaign theoretically in the game, I would suggest they have less to lose by setting out their stall early.

I'm sure the June date will also have an impact too - we'll probably decent whether, which should put people in a happier positive mood, a European football tournament going on, I think that out will have it all to do when push comes to shove... But the only reservation in this is if people think the vote is a forgon conclusion, effecting turnout, as that is surely going to effect the Remain vote more than the leave.

[Alf Bentley]

I wonder if the 'Leave' campaign will suffer from fatigue... A lot of the bigger claims on why we should leave have been made already, meaning they'll have less impact when repeated towards the defining moments of the campaign.

The same could be said for the remain campaign... but given "status quo" voting intentions often win out in these things and in a way they need to keep the Leave campaign theoretically in the game, I would suggest they have less to lose by setting out their stall early.

I'm sure the June date will also have an impact too - we'll probably decent whether, which should put people in a happier positive mood, a European football tournament going on, I think that out will have it all to do when push comes to shove... But the only reservation in this is if people think the vote is a forgon conclusion, effecting turnout, as that is surely going to effect the Remain vote more than the leave.

 

 

It hadn't occurred to me that the referendum will be happening during Euro 2016.

 

I've just checked the dates for the matches and the referendum will be just after the group stages and just before the last 16 matches.

 

The "remain" camp will be hoping that England (and Wales & N. Ireland, to a lesser extent) are generating a feel-good factor and have not bombed out farcically at the group stage.

 

Potential echoes of the 1970 general election, held 4 days after England famously led the Germans 2-0 in the World Cup quarter-final, but lost 2-3. Wilson's Labour were favourites, but there was a late swing that took Heath's Tories to victory:

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2010/apr/21/world-cup-1970-harold-wilson

[Guest MattP]

It hadn't occurred to me that the referendum will be happening during Euro 2016.

 

I've just checked the dates for the matches and the referendum will be just after the group stages and just before the last 16 matches.

 

The "remain" camp will be hoping that England (and Wales & N. Ireland, to a lesser extent) are generating a feel-good factor and have not bombed out farcically at the group stage.

 

Potential echoes of the 1970 general election, held 4 days after England famously led the Germans 2-0 in the World Cup quarter-final, but lost 2-3. Wilson's Labour were favourites, but there was a late swing that took Heath's Tories to victory:

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2010/apr/21/world-cup-1970-harold-wilson

 

It certainly did me, perfect time to have it, we should comfortably get through the group and with the Sun out and the beers and BBQ's flowing it's the perfect time for a status Quo vote, my only surprise is they didn't make it a national holiday as well to increase the feel good factor. Isn't the reason they always hold an election towards the start of the month because people have got money in their pockets at that point?

 

Of course we could crash out, unlikely though.

[Alf Bentley]

It certainly did me, perfect time to have it, we should comfortably get through the group and with the Sun out and the beers and BBQ's flowing it's the perfect time for a status Quo vote, my only surprise is they didn't make it a national holiday as well to increase the feel good factor. Isn't the reason they always hold an election towards the start of the month because people have got money in their pockets at that point?

 

Of course we could crash out, unlikely though.

 

 

I can be surprisingly dim at times. A small calculated risk to call the referendum for that date, but probably only a small one, with 4 third-placed countries also qualifying - must be a decent chance that Wales and/or N. Ireland could make the last 16, too, and they'll be "plucky losers" even if they haven't.

 

It suggests a lot of cockiness about the 1970 England team, though, if Wilson was prepared to gamble on them beating the Germans in the quarter-final. He was a cunning, calculating bloke, so he certainly would have taken it into account.

 

I assume you mean "with the sun out" and not "with the Sun out"?  Or maybe you meant "the Sun wanting out of the EU"? I'm sure Murdoch won't be emerging from the closet, anyway - he just remarried to Jerry Hall, didn't he?

 

As for it being "a perfect time for a status Quo" vote.... I'd have thought that the Quo would be tax-avoiding pro-Brexit Tories. Never know, though; with a name like Francis Rossi, he's probably of migrant stock and might appreciate how the Schengen Zone allows ease of access to Rome for a bit of arse-pinching. 

 

Sorry, getting a bit giddy again...

[Alf Bentley]

Postscript: So in June Jamie Vardy could be shooting the UK into Europe and not just Leicester...

[The Railway Man]

OUT . If Cameron and Gideon think we are better off in you know it's better off for the normal working man if we are gone, they'll just be using this to blame for all the failed policies still to come.

[RobHawk]

OUT . If Cameron and Gideon think we are better off in you know it's better off for the normal working man if we are gone, they'll just be using this to blame for all the failed policies still to come.

 

Stupid argument - Gove, Boris and Farage want us out! How do they care about the working man?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

OUT . If Cameron and Gideon think we are better off in you know it's better off for the normal working man if we are gone, they'll just be using this to blame for all the failed policies still to come.

So what do you make of Corbyn begrudgingly saying - In's better than Out?

[The Railway Man]

So what do you make of Corbyn begrudgingly saying - In's better than Out?

 

But he's only doing so because it's a battle he can't win within his party.

 

There is no way Corbyn seriously wants to stay in, in the leadership debates he put a fantastic Brexit argument across that was less than a year ago, no one is surely stupid to believe he's all of a sudden changed his opinion on this in a few months after thirty years of wanting out surely?

 

Wake up.

[Guest MattP]

To be fair to Corbyn he never once said he wanted to stay in the European Union today in his speech, everytime ge said "The Labour party believes...."

He's managing his party over this just as much as Cameron is trying to.

[Alf Bentley]

To be fair to Corbyn he never once said he wanted to stay in the European Union today in his speech, everytime ge said "The Labour party believes...."

He's managing his party over this just as much as Cameron is trying to.

 

 

I didn't see Corbyn's speech, but BBC News said he made various criticisms of the EU, but went on to say, essentially, "despite this, Labour wants to remain in the EU to benefit from the positives - and to change the negatives from within".

 

The reporter made the good point that such a stance has a lot more credibility than if he'd come out expressing unequivocal, personal enthusiasm for the EU. Firstly, because of his track record of criticising the EU. Secondly, because Labourites who aren't already convinced to vote "remain" will not be convinced by someone viewing the EU through rose-tinted spectacles.....the "hold your nose and vote Remain" or "better the devil you know" stance is more likely to persuade such people. 

[Guest MattP]

I didn't see Corbyn's speech, but BBC News said he made various criticisms of the EU, but went on to say, essentially, "despite this, Labour wants to remain in the EU to benefit from the positives - and to change the negatives from within".

 

The reporter made the good point that such a stance has a lot more credibility than if he'd come out expressing unequivocal, personal enthusiasm for the EU. Firstly, because of his track record of criticising the EU. Secondly, because Labourites who aren't already convinced to vote "remain" will not be convinced by someone viewing the EU through rose-tinted spectacles.....the "hold your nose and vote Remain" or "better the devil you know" stance is more likely to persuade such people. 

 

Watching it yesterday I just really wished Tony Benn had still been alive.

 

There is no way he would have sold out his principles and he would have been an absolutely incredible asset to the "Vote Leave" campaign among Labour voters and the left in general.

[Steven]

Watching it yesterday I just really wished Tony Benn had still been alive.

 

There is no way he would have sold out his principles and he would have been an absolutely incredible asset to the "Vote Leave" campaign among Labour voters and the left in general.

 

The modern politician has principles; self-enrichment and self-aggrandisement.   

[Sharpe's Fox]

Don't see how JC is reneging on his principles when he has repeatedly said that he wants the party to be more democratic and that Labour policy he campaigns for would be determined by majority views, of which Bremain is one. It's not like he came out in lederhosen and a beret screaming viva europe, he is perfectly aware of the leftist critisms of the EU and put them out there in his speech.

[Guest MattP]

Don't see how JC is reneging on his principles when he has repeatedly said that he wants the party to be more democratic and that Labour policy he campaigns for would be determined by majority views, of which Bremain is one. It's not like he came out in lederhosen and a beret screaming viva europe, he is perfectly aware of the leftist critisms of the EU and put them out there in his speech.

 

Why is he speaking at CND rallies then when the party is still pro-Trident?

[Guest MattP]

In hindsight I should have said " would have stood up for his principles" rather than "Sold out his principles"

 

Retracted.

[The Guvnor]

So just received the glossy booklet from the govt which tells us why we should stay in, early thoughts they shouldn't have printed it on such slippery paper.

[Sharpe's Fox]

Why is he speaking at CND rallies then when the party is still pro-Trident?

 

Because you're wrong, the majority of the party are not. The PLP are majority pro-trident and the majority of the membership are not as evidenced by the fact he one of his core messages in the leadership election was one unilateralism and he went on to win said election.

 

The policy stance will be debated at party conference and decided in the coming months I expect.

[Guest MattP]

Because you're wrong, the majority of the party are not. The PLP are majority pro-trident and the majority of the membership are not as evidenced by the fact he one of his core messages in the leadership election was one unilateralism and he went on to win said election.

 

The policy stance will be debated at party conference and decided in the coming months I expect.

 

Were you not paying attention at the conference last year? They didn't have a vote because they would lose it. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/09/how-labour-conference-voted-favour-trident-renewal- At the minute Labour is still a pro-Trident party, by your logic on Europe it would be therefore inappropriate for Corbyn to speak in any sort of pro-Trident event.

 

You might be right and the membership might be so different eventually they do become an anti-nuclear party (I hope they do as it means they won't be elected) but in the meantime I can't see how anyone can put forward an argument Corbyn is standing by his principals because he speaks at anti Trident rallies and then a few weeks later put the same argument forward because he speaks and represents the views of his party ahead of his own.

[Sharpe's Fox]

Were you not paying attention at the conference last year? They didn't have a vote because they would lose it. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/09/how-labour-conference-voted-favour-trident-renewal- At the minute Labour is still a pro-Trident party, by your logic on Europe it would be therefore inappropriate for Corbyn to speak in any sort of pro-Trident event.

 

You might be right and the membership might be so different eventually they do become an anti-nuclear party (I hope they do as it means they won't be elected) but in the meantime I can't see how anyone can put forward an argument Corbyn is standing by his principals because he speaks at anti Trident rallies and then a few weeks later put the same argument forward because he speaks and represents the views of his party ahead of his own.

 

Bremain is clearly a policy all parts the of Labour Party is set upon and JC should be expected to back, and Trident renewal is one the party is clearly not. Saying the party is technically pro-Trident just because the topic wasn't chosen to be debated at conference is a weak argument it's pretty obvious it's still a issue that is still being reviewed and that Jeremy is trying to lobby his MP's about. Until the point that the policy is decided it can be expected that it's something individuals can have differing opinions of.

[Thracian]

So what do you make of Corbyn begrudgingly saying - In's better than Out?

 

 

"In" now, "out" before, shake it all about ... he should have been a dancer not a politician.     

[Thracian]

So just received the glossy booklet from the govt which tells us why we should stay in, early thoughts they shouldn't have printed it on such slippery paper.

 

 

Some might call it appropriate!    

[Thracian]

I didn't see Corbyn's speech, but BBC News said he made various criticisms of the EU, but went on to say, essentially, "despite this, Labour wants to remain in the EU to benefit from the positives - and to change the negatives from within".

 

The reporter made the good point that such a stance has a lot more credibility than if he'd come out expressing unequivocal, personal enthusiasm for the EU. Firstly, because of his track record of criticising the EU. Secondly, because Labourites who aren't already convinced to vote "remain" will not be convinced by someone viewing the EU through rose-tinted spectacles.....the "hold your nose and vote Remain" or "better the devil you know" stance is more likely to persuade such people. 

 

 

It's been seen how much we change things from within - hardly at all.

The bloke's just wishful thinking. Time to paddle our own canoe and connect with Europe as and when  we see fit.   

 http://forbritain.org/MEPs%20votes.pdf

[Guest MattP]

He obviously can't but I wish we had Andrew Neil avaliable as a speaker for Brexit, tore Tristram Hunt to pieces on Sunday Politics over THE EU.

[Benji]

More importantly, Isabel Oakeshott looking seriously hot on Sunday Politics.  Worth keeping it on just for her.