The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[GaelicFox]

I think it's time to leave

mainly because I'm hoping my family in ireland will need a visa to visit me here in less-tah , and they ain't getting no visa that lot of scroungers !

[Nick]

There's just not enough information out there to make an informed decision.

[Sharpe's Fox]

I don't believe people who say there is no information out there when they are  logged on to the single biggest cache of information in the history of the known universe (thus far). If you have half an hour and a brain to figure out where the bias is then you're good to go.

[Jon the Hat]

I stopped listening when the Remain campaign started implying that there are no sensible reasons to want to leave.

[SMX11]

There is plenty of information, if you don't know what to do don't vote.

I find this claim from Gideon and his cronies quite laughable particularly when the OBR has made such a mess over the 20 odd billion in the previous budget. You cannot ever forecast so far into the future and must be treated as politically motivated.

[Jon the Hat]

There is plenty of information, if you don't know what to do don't vote.

I find this claim from Gideon and his cronies quite laughable particularly when the OBR has made such a mess over the 20 odd billion in the previous budget. You cannot ever forecast so far into the future and must be treated as politically motivated.

 

I assume they are merrily ignoring any of the potential economic benefits, while assuming, probably rightly, that uncertainty brings less trade and hence less money from the remaining EU countries.  Silly to take the downside and ignore potential benefits of trade deals with other parts of the world.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

I assume they are merrily ignoring any of the potential economic benefits, while assuming, probably rightly, that uncertainty brings less trade and hence less money from the remaining EU countries.  Silly to take the downside and ignore potential benefits of trade deals with other parts of the world.

The problem with saying that is those trade deals don't exist - so how do they factor them in?

What they've done is taken a model, then altered it to fit in with 3 different 'known' scenarios. That's about as much as they can do within reason, otherwise you end up making too many assumptions and your figures are based on too many unknowns.

True, that means the figures aren't see in stone, but they set a trend of direction. The key for the Brexit campaign is to either debunk the figures enough to make them seem unreliable AND/OR release their own set of figures and get them backed up by a reputable body.

[Jon the Hat]

The problem with saying that is those trade deals don't exist - so how do they factor them in?

What they've done is taken a model, then altered it to fit in with 3 different 'known' scenarios. That's about as much as they can do within reason, otherwise you end up making too many assumptions and your figures are based on too many unknowns.

True, that means the figures aren't see in stone, but they set a trend of direction. The key for the Brexit campaign is to either debunk the figures enough to make them seem unreliable AND/OR release their own set of figures and get them backed up by a reputable body.

 

Are you suggesting there will not be trade deals with other nations once we are not restricted by the EU?  I think we could take that as a given, as much as assuming trade with the EU slows despite the fact that we will undoubtedly have completely free trade with the EU.  They need us as much as we need them, barriers are in nobodies interest and they know it.  Pessimistic forecasting doesn't help, and frankly the numbers they are chucking around are insane.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Are you suggesting there will not be trade deals with other nations once we are not restricted by the EU? I think we could take that as a given, as much as assuming trade with the EU slows despite the fact that we will undoubtedly have completely free trade with the EU. They need us as much as we need them, barriers are in nobodies interest and they know it. Pessimistic forecasting doesn't help, and frankly the numbers they are chucking around are insane.

No I'm not suggesting that... In fact I was nowhere near suggesting that.

However, whilst those deals don't exist, you can't factor in what the terms would be - or who they'd be with, so you can't bring them into a model.

And be careful on the "EU will trade with us argument". Yes we import about 55% from Europe, but in terms of individual states trade with us the top level is around 8-10% I believe, so not as significant. Chances are, any agreement will involve cost, complying with regulations and possibly, Freedom of Movement, so in the end we don't actually gain any degree of budget relief, Soverignity or control over our borders.

[The Guvnor]

No I'm not suggesting that... In fact I was nowhere near suggesting that.

However, whilst those deals don't exist, you can't factor in what the terms would be - or who they'd be with, so you can't bring them into a model.

And be careful on the "EU will trade with us argument". Yes we import about 55% from Europe, but in terms of individual states trade with us the top level is around 8-10% I believe, so not as significant. Chances are, any agreement will involve cost, complying with regulations and possibly, Freedom of Movement, so in the end we don't actually gain any degree of budget relief, Soverignity or control over our borders.

 

Ha Ha I can just imagine Francois Hollande telling the French farmers they cannot sell their produce to us there would be tractors and burning tyres all around Paris.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Ha Ha I can just imagine Francois Hollande telling the French farmers they cannot sell their produce to us there would be tractors and burning tyres all around Paris.

It depends on the balance of trade in that sector... Because the reverse would be British imports of beef and lamb would invite tariffs, so they may get a better position in their home and rest of the EU markets.

If you also consider higher ticket French produce such as Champagne will not suffer per say, because the additional cost is likely to be absorbed by the consumer on this side not by the producers.

The same could be said with German cars - they will still import them, but they could easily add on the tariff and say "well this is the new price you pay" to the consumer - because German cars have that status symbol here compared to say a Ford (plus if there are no external trade deals in force at that time, they would be potentially subject to the same tariffs).

[Jon the Hat]

No I'm not suggesting that... In fact I was nowhere near suggesting that.

However, whilst those deals don't exist, you can't factor in what the terms would be - or who they'd be with, so you can't bring them into a model.

And be careful on the "EU will trade with us argument". Yes we import about 55% from Europe, but in terms of individual states trade with us the top level is around 8-10% I believe, so not as significant. Chances are, any agreement will involve cost, complying with regulations and possibly, Freedom of Movement, so in the end we don't actually gain any degree of budget relief, Soverignity or control over our borders.

 

What complete crap, of course you can and have to include the actions the government would take to mitigate the impact of any reduction in EU trade.  Jesus, if you only took the downsides you would get a completely inaccurate outlook... oh wait, they did that didn't they!

 

Very narrow and frankly bullshit model created to support the governments failing argument that we should be scared of leaving the EU.  ****ing outrageous that they think us that stupid.  I am personally offended.  Osborne and Cameron have lost my support on this.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

What complete crap, of course you can and have to include the actions the government would take to mitigate the impact of any reduction in EU trade.  Jesus, if you only took the downsides you would get a completely inaccurate outlook... oh wait, they did that didn't they!

 

Very narrow and frankly bullshit model created to support the governments failing argument that we should be scared of leaving the EU.  ****ing outrageous that they think us that stupid.  I am personally offended.  Osborne and Cameron have lost my support on this.

Well if that's the case... The Brexit camp could explain what the deals would be and then a model could be made.

The 3 models presented took existing data / trade patterns and incorporated a Norway option, Canadian option and WTO option. Those are known scenarios so can be factored in and are being discussed by the Brexit side - any other scenarios would be made up based on what?

True - if the results had come out the way the government didn't want, we wouldn't have seen them... But then again, maybe the government took its stance in the first place because it already reasonably knew that the economy is a governments bread and butter issue (the one above all else it would be elected on) and that all signs pointed to the economy being in a difficult, uncertain position in the event of an exit.

[Nick]

I don't believe people who say there is no information out there when they are  logged on to the single biggest cache of information in the history of the known universe (thus far). If you have half an hour and a brain to figure out where the bias is then you're good to go.

 

 

There is plenty of information, if you don't know what to do don't vote.

 

 

Please forgive me for not clearly having half a brain and a half hour on the internet to find the answers to the Yes / No vote.

 

So you pair can accurately forecast the consequences of opting out for a range of demographics across the country?

 

Or are you just going to vote for what you think best suits you?

[SMX11]

Please forgive me for not clearly having half a brain and a half hour on the internet to find the answers to the Yes / No vote.o

So you pair can accurately forecast the consequences of opting out for a range of demographics across the country?

Or are you just going to vote for what you think best suits you?

It is difficult to tell what would happen because we would be at the mercy of democracy. However, I feel that the EU is diametrically opposed to what this country is founded on.... The rule of law not the rule by law that the EU likes.

Economically I believe that unilateral free trade is the goal and diversifying our export markets would be beneficial to be not reliant on one particular area. The EU is a protectionist racket where big businesses lobby for regulations to increase the burden on potential competitors. They are reluctant to opening up markets due to these special interests as it will force them to be more competative or concentrate on their comparative advantage. Tariffs are a tax on the people and makes everybody poorer except those companies that make a certain product, be it low grade steel or grain. It is great for them but what about the companies that benefit from the cheap steel or the millions that would benefit with food bills being reduced? Do they not matter as well?

[Dodgy Bob]

Gove's comments today are just as fantastical as the forecasts. Trying to present as fact the idea that we would magically maintain our free trade agreement with the EU without having to comply with any of its rules. Fantasy land stuff, and then he talks about how 'empowering' leaving would be. Yes, for him it would be very empowering. For the country, maybe not so much.

[Nick]

It is difficult to tell what would happen because we would be at the mercy of democracy. However, I feel that the EU is diametrically opposed to what this country is founded on.... The rule of law not the rule by law that the EU likes.

Economically I believe that unilateral free trade is the goal and diversifying our export markets would be beneficial to be not reliant on one particular area. The EU is a protectionist racket where big businesses lobby for regulations to increase the burden on potential competitors. They are reluctant to opening up markets due to these special interests as it will force them to be more competative or concentrate on their comparative advantage. Tariffs are a tax on the people and makes everybody poorer except those companies that make a certain product, be it low grade steel or grain. It is great for them but what about the companies that benefit for cheap steel or the millions of people food bills being reduced because of cheap food? Do they not matter as well?

 

 

Fair points - if we are voting on a principle....

 

It's the unknown impact of exit that represents a void in the evidence for me. Everything I read is tainted with such bias - Any truly/predominantly balanced/independent sources out there to be signposted to?

 

For me its also more complicated as I do a fair bit of work in and with the field of Justice - The UN regulates our governments to an extent in not straying too far from welfare and neo-correctionalist models of criminal justice and are at least associated / signed up to the (not that we adhere to it arguably) UNCRC and some other useful human rights laws... Come out of the EU and we risk following conservative think tanks towards lining G4S et al's pockets at a time when our prisons cost per place per year far more than sending somebody to board at Eton and are so ineffective (inclusive of re-settlement processes) that 70 plus percent of prisoners re-offend within a year of release and the public swallows it, seemingly unconcerned that incarceration is not working, completely ineffective and rubbish value for money....

 

But I'm not just voting for my situation - I need to feel like I have a grasp of the threats and opportunities of an exit for everybody.

[Nick]

Gove's comments today are just as fantastical as the forecasts. Trying to present as fact the idea that we would magically maintain our free trade agreement with the EU without having to comply with any of its rules. Fantasy land stuff, and then he talks about how 'empowering' leaving would be. Yes, for him it would be very empowering. For the country, maybe not so much.

 

Yeah and that's pretty much what bothers me as I was describing above!

[SMX11]

Gove's comments today are just as fantastical as the forecasts. Trying to present as fact the idea that we would magically maintain our free trade agreement with the EU without having to comply with any of its rules. Fantasy land stuff, and then he talks about how 'empowering' leaving would be. Yes, for him it would be very empowering. For the country, maybe not so much.

I don't think Gove said that. People get confused between the single matket and the free trade area. The single market is a single regulatory area where there is harmonised standards which you have to apply to ALL of your economy.

Free trade is where goods and services are exchanged without tarrifs or quotas.

Gove is attempting to say that we wouldn't have to burden all of our economy with EU regs (about 90% of businesses).

[The Guvnor]

I believe most people have made up their minds now, the fear campaign continuously making spurious claims that the world will end if we leave is quite frankly contemptible.As you may have guessed I am strongly in favour of leaving as this relationship has run it's course, a bit like desperately clinging on to a failed marriage because you don't want to pay for a divorce.

[leicsmac]

I find it amusingly ironic that the 'Leave' campaign accuses the 'Remain' one of using fear tactics across the board, when a large part of their own campaign (particularly sovereignty issues) is based on fears of their own.

 

Is there a good kind and bad kind of fear in this case, then?

[Dodgy Bob]

I don't think Gove said that. People get confused between the single matket and the free trade area. The single market is a single regulatory area where there is harmonised standards which you have to apply to ALL of your economy.

Free trade is where goods and services are exchanged without tarrifs or quotas.

Gove is attempting to say that we wouldn't have to burden all of our economy with EU regs (about 90% of businesses).

I can't find the exact details of what Gove said but the BBC article on the subject does the use the phrase 'free trade' when referring to Gove's comments. Even if he is just saying that we wouldn't have to burden our economy with EU regs, that itself if still wishful thinking. If we want to trade with the EU then the products and services we offer will still need to be compliant.

[The Guvnor]

I find it amusingly ironic that the 'Leave' campaign accuses the 'Remain' one of using fear tactics across the board, when a large part of their own campaign (particularly sovereignty issues) is based on fears of their own.

 

Is there a good kind and bad kind of fear in this case, then?

I find it amusingly ironic that the 'Leave' campaign accuses the 'Remain' one of using fear tactics across the board, when a large part of their own campaign (particularly sovereignty issues) is based on fears of their own.

 

Is there a good kind and bad kind of fear in this case, then?

I cannot believe you are comparing the doom and gloom predictions centred around fear from the in team, to the apprehensions displayed by the Brexit team about Sovereignty issues

[RobHawk]

I cannot believe you are comparing the doom and gloom predictions centred around fear from the in team, to the apprehensions displayed by the Brexit team about Sovereignty issues

 

Would you like to expand further?

[SMX11]

I can't find the exact details of what Gove said but the BBC article on the subject does the use the phrase 'free trade' when referring to Gove's comments. Even if he is just saying that we wouldn't have to burden our economy with EU regs, that itself if still wishful thinking. If we want to trade with the EU then the products and services we offer will still need to be compliant.

Agreed. However, 90% of businesses don't export and yet are currently forced to comply. That is the point he is trying to make (I think).