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davieG

The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

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A selfie? :)

I apologise to you Ken. I made a cheap shot yesterday and it was uncalled for. I still find your contribution woeful and I'm not going to argue with you anymore, but there's no need for me to be impolite

Still not buying the alternative argument are you Webbo!

The clue is in the picture.

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I apologise to you Ken. I made a cheap shot yesterday and it was uncalled for. I still find your contribution woeful and I'm not going to argue with you anymore, but there's no need for me to be impolite

The clue is in the picture.

Unlike most other deer species, moose are solitary animals and do not form herds. Although generally slow-moving and sedentary, moose can become aggressive and move quickly if angered or startled. Their mating season in the autumn can lead to spectacular fights between males competing for a female.

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  • 1 month later...

At last, a concrete reason for leaving the EU.  Or staying.  I'm not sure.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/30/daily-mail-editor-paul-dacre-received-88000-eu-subsidies-2014

 

I expect Paul Dacre is FURIOUS as the payments of tens of thousands of pounds that he has presumably inadvertantly claimed from the EU, funded from money that they have stolen from ordinary hard working people on a £2.5 million salary like him, fall into his bank account.  

 

I feel sorry for him, he must feel very conflicted

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Guest MattP

Don't rule out the Mail still backing a remain vote.

The Morning Star and the Express are the only two definites for a Brexit.

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Guest MattP

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35949705

Interesting but not entirely surprising part on the future of UKIP in that article on how the top brass want to lose the referendum and do what the SNP have done and win seats because of the grievances.

 

I shared this opinion about six months ago, I'm convinced Farage wants a remain vote, he probably knows the EU is a dead man walking anyway within twenty years so the referendum might not matter long terms, a passionate campaign and a huge % of the popualtion with a huge greivance could see a big UKIP vote come 2020.

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No mention of Cam's £9million worth of 'propaganda'? 

 

Foxestalk is slipping! 

 

Personally, I want us to stay in but am not sure £9 million is 'money well spent'.

Not only is it unfair it's bad politics as well. Nobody will actually read these leaflets but the out campaign can play the victim. If we vote to stay in they can say it wasn't a level playing field and it will prolong the row.

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No mention of Cam's £9million worth of 'propaganda'? 

 

Foxestalk is slipping! 

 

Personally, I want us to stay in but am not sure £9 million is 'money well spent'.

 

 

Verifiable facts are one thing and welcome when presented responsibly (preferably by independent sources) but Cameron's actions amount to a weighting of the dice and are seemingly contrary to what he promised us in terms of a referendum.

 

That doesn't mean I'd not be happy to read his personal reasons for wanting us to remain in the EU just as  I'd read the opinions of many others (though Corbyn seems so in-out/in-out shake it all about that I'm not sure he has the fainest idea what's best although we're all entitled to change our views in the light of experience).      

 

But so far, I see no reason we shouldn't continue to trade and be a fundamental ally of Europe without the need for us to be beholden to some of their ridiculous laws, attitudes, directives and not-so-hidden agendas.      

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Don't think Corbyn has ever changed his mind on the EU, he's only supporting it to avoid aggro in a rare show of realpolitik from him. I don't see how any Jeremy Corbyn supporter can ever support the EU because its neoliberal agenda guarantee that the sort of socialist state they want to see can never be achieved, democracy, lower immigration figures and not paying for Spanish bridges is just a bonus.

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I'm a don't know and maybe an abstainer. I am worried about a lot of rights ordinary people may lose if we leave and this government is given cart blanche. But there are too many pro's and cons and little will affect me. And there are so many conflicting arguments it is hard to know what to believe.

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Not only is it unfair it's bad politics as well. Nobody will actually read these leaflets but the out campaign can play the victim. If we vote to stay in they can say it wasn't a level playing field and it will prolong the row.

 

I agree Webbo - Looks a balls up in my eyes. 

 

Verifiable facts are one thing and welcome when presented responsibly (preferably by independent sources) but Cameron's actions amount to a weighting of the dice and are seemingly contrary to what he promised us in terms of a referendum.

 

That doesn't mean I'd not be happy to read his personal reasons for wanting us to remain in the EU any more than I'd read the opinions of many others (though Corbyn seems so in-out/in-out shake it all about that I'm not sure he has the fainest idea what's best although we're all entitled to change our views in the light of experience).      

 

But so far, I see no reason we shouldn't continue to trade and be a fundamental ally of Europe without the need for us to be beholden to some of their ridiculous laws, attitudes, directives and not-so-hidden agendas.      

I've obviously not seen the leaflet to comment on its content, only the comments of those involved in the referendum on various news outlets. One thing i would say is i'm not sure the cost would be worthwhile whatever the leaflet contained. Most people will bin it anyway and it would always be coming from an 'in' point of view so even if it did contain verifiable facts - we all know they can be skewed to suit peoples arguments and those in the out camp would have disputed them anyway. 

 

Corbyn clearly is in the out camp from a personal point of view but as others have said, he's allowing the party to overrule him on this one. That's party politics at the end of the day and maybe he thinks this is one he can win without getting involved. Interestingly enough, i can't remember the last time i saw Corbyn speaking on the news, Its always McDonnell or Watson. 

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Think a lot more people are going to be in the outcamp with the inevitable inclusion of turkey in the EU....yeh **** that

 

Can't see it happening any time soon - Even if Turkey do want in. They will need to settle their differences and remove themselves from Cyprus for a start!

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Not only is it unfair it's bad politics as well. Nobody will actually read these leaflets but the out campaign can play the victim. If we vote to stay in they can say it wasn't a level playing field and it will prolong the row.

 

 

I'm probably 70-30 likely to vote "Remain" now, but completely agree with you about this.

 

If they wanted to "inform" people, as they claim, why couldn't they have sent a brief presentation of the arguments of BOTH sides? This happens with some elections, including union elections: each candidate is given a set number of words to present their case and is allowed to quote names of people supporting them.

 

I'm expecting the vote to be close, so if "Out" lose, they are now bound to call foul on the campaign, as you say. I'm not sure it's even a sensible tactic DURING the campaign. Some voters might "take the government advice", but others might be influenced to vote "Out" because they don't respect "the political establishment" and don't like it telling them what to think, whether that establishment is in Brussels or Westminster. An unfair - and stupid - decision, IMHO.

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Narrowly 'in' for me though neither side has presented compelling arguments. The out campaign seems to be mostly about cheap and nasty Nationalism and/or politicians like Boris and Gove positioning themselves for a run at power. The in campaign has a lot of wishy washy one-nation-world nonsense and cheap scare mongering. Knowing what will end up being best in the long run is impossible but we can say for sure that voting out will create a lot of uncertainty in the short term and that's no good to anyone really.

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Narrowly 'in' for me though neither side has presented compelling arguments. The out campaign seems to be mostly about cheap and nasty Nationalism and/or politicians like Boris and Gove positioning themselves for a run at power. The in campaign has a lot of wishy washy one-nation-world nonsense and cheap scare mongering. Knowing what will end up being best in the long run is impossible but we can say for sure that voting out will create a lot of uncertainty in the short term and that's no good to anyone really.

 

I agree with this Bob.

 

Similar to Alf i've been very much on the fence but veering towards In. I'm not ideologically opposed to leaving the EU but to do so will cause so much uncertainty within the financial markets that its just not worthwhile right now.

 

One of the few things i agree with Ed Milliband on at the last election was when he categorically said he wouldn't call a EU referendum because fixing and shaping our economy is more important and the cost of a referendum along with the uncertainty is not a priority. Its all about timing for me - now is not the time to make things worse in the short term (which will happen) with the hope of long term benefits (which may not be forthcoming in reality). 

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https://www.eureferendum.gov.uk/why-the-government-believes-we-should-remain/eu-referendum-leaflet/

Here's a link to an online version of the much talked about leaflet just in case you can't wait for the postman to bring it to you.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the actual item is not as bad as the fuss being made of it. For one, it's very clear from the rather long title it's not an impartial leaflet.

Now there is a strong argument to say something like this was necessary, because there will be plenty of people who haven't really tuned into what's been going on up to now - and this may at least get this subject on their radar. The leaflet is not really for those who know where they're leaning / have an interest in politics, this is for the people who don't really know whether they're going to vote at all.

What the leaflet looks to do is frame the arguments that this referendum is on - ok, yes it sets out the governments preference position at the same time but if the government has declared a perference as it has, that's surely only correct on a leaflet from the government?

In fact, given there is no independent impartial party that would produce a balanced leaflet (and any leaflet of this nature would be nigh on impossible to produce given the lack of actual facts available and the I'm right / you're wrong hypothetical arguments this referendum is based on) the leave campaigns attacks on the leaflet are more opportunist than justified and no doubt motivated by the calculation that it's likely a low turnout would be needed in order to return an "Out" vote and this leaflet endangers that.

They're hoping their actions results in people tossing it before reading it - but by making this leaflet quite notorious, who knows that could backfire!

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In fact, given there is no independent impartial party that would produce a balanced leaflet (and any leaflet of this nature would be nigh on impossible to produce given the lack of actual facts available and the I'm right / you're wrong hypothetical arguments this referendum is based on

 

 

That's true, but they could have sent out a brochure with sections of equal length written by each side, thereby presenting both cases. Each side could have listed prominent supporters - so the "Remain" camp could have made it clear that they had the support of the majority of the government, and of Labour, Lib Dems etc. The "Out" camp could also have listed its prominent supporters. It could all have been overseen by the Electoral Reform Society (which already oversees a lot of ballots) or some other independent body.

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That's true, but they could have sent out a brochure with sections of equal length written by each side, thereby presenting both cases. Each side could have listed prominent supporters - so the "Remain" camp could have made it clear that they had the support of the majority of the government, and of Labour, Lib Dems etc. The "Out" camp could also have listed its prominent supporters. It could all have been overseen by the Electoral Reform Society (which already oversees a lot of ballots) or some other independent body.

I don't think even that would have been possible - for a start, you have two different sections on the out campaign so which one do you choose?

It'd also require co-operation... And I'm not sure either side are really willing to do that and why should they.

And finally - who would edit the thing / fact check etc? Impossible task really.

The one concession the government could give is an additional £9 million allowance to allow the official leave side to send its own leaflet out - but given they've claimed it as a waste of money, they shouldn't take up that opportunity!

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A couple of decent articles here questioning some people's assumption that the "remain" campaign will win the referendum:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/09/brexit-nightmare-remain-camp-denial-cameron-panama-papers

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/don-t-trust-received-wisdom-uk-eu-referendum-vote?utm_source=Chatham%20House%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=6968890_Newsletter%20-%2008.04.2016&utm_content=EU-CTA&dm_i=1TYB,45D8A,I53760,F2XB6,1

 

The Guardian article is written by a pro-remain Le Monde journalist explaining her concerns that Brexit is quite likely. The Chatham House article is more of a neutral "political analysis" piece.

 

I'd assume that Cameron's current travails over tax will help the "out" camp. There's already a lot of popular scorn for politicians in general, be they in Brussels or at Westminster. When Cameron is the leading advocate for "remain", this scandal and the £9m leaflet decision will only add to that scorn. Fewer voters will be inclined to vote "remain" based on trust for the recommendation of "our government". If you add in Labour's scandalously low media profile so far (on both sides of the argument) and concerns over immigration, particularly if the EU fails to address flows of migrants arriving at borders or drowning in the Mediterranean, that becomes a pretty potent mix that is beneficial to Brexit campaigners.

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Guest MattP

I thought the reason the referendum was being held in June is so they can get it in before we have another flow of migrants when the summer really starts in July, I'm not sure how much effect the Cameron stuff will have on it. People forget these things very quickly.

 

As for the result I think it's still in the balance, I expect remain to just win out but as we've seen with Scotland that will just be the start of the EU question, not the end. I do hopw "Vote Leave" is given the official designation though this week, keeping Farage and Galloway off the screens could be pretty vital.

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