The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Alf Bentley]

It's one of the many reasons why I want us to leave. Without democracy we have corruption, cronyism, arrogance and incompetence, which doesn't help either.

 

Tbh , this "democracy, is that all you're worried about?" attitude seems bizarre to me. 

 

 

I didn't say "democracy, is that all you're worried about?" In fact, I said "Not enough democratic powers, I agree". Please don't misrepresent me.

 

Democracy matters - and it's far from perfect in either the EU or the UK.

 

Would you vote Remain if the EU was run by a directly-elected European Parliament with the power to legislate for the UK? If not, why are you arguing for EU democracy that you do not believe in? Why not argue against the pooling of powers at EU level and in favour of power being exercised purely at a national level?

[theessexfox]

I suggest you start a thread on PR.

I'm not a great proponent of PR necessarily and there seems to be no appetite for it in UK politics at the moment, but it surprises me that those who vilify the EU institutions for allowing unaccountable politicians to make laws don't vilify the UK Parliament for allowing unaccountable politicians to make laws - it is much the same, on a greater scale. There are legitimate arguments against the EU but I don't think it is any more undemocratic than the UK political system other than the fact that the EU electorate includes 27 other nations.

[Alf Bentley]

Obviously we can only get rid of govts/MPs at election time.

 

 

We as individuals can only get rid of our local MP. We rely on other UK voters in other constituencies to indirectly get rid of the government.

 

We as individuals can also only get rid of our local MEPs. We rely on other UK & EU voters to indirectly get rid of the Commission or the European Parliament majority.

[Webbo]

I didn't say "democracy, is that all you're worried about?" In fact, I said "Not enough democratic powers, I agree". Please don't misrepresent me.

 

Democracy matters - and it's far from perfect in either the EU or the UK.

 

Would you vote Remain if the EU was run by a directly-elected European Parliament with the power to legislate for the UK? If not, why are you arguing for EU democracy that you do not believe in? Why not argue against the pooling of powers at EU level and in favour of power being exercised purely at a national level?

I don't want to be part of a United States of Europe full stop. If we vote to stay in then we have to make the best of it.

 

I desperately wanted Cameron to negotiate something I could vote for but it soon become obvious he was asking for virtually nothing and they treated even those minimum requests with nothing but contempt. Their own grand project was more important to them than the justified concerns of ordinary citizens. If anything finally convinced me we needed to get out it was that.

[Webbo]

I'm not a great proponent of PR necessarily and there seems to be no appetite for it in UK politics at the moment, but it surprises me that those who vilify the EU institutions for allowing unaccountable politicians to make laws don't vilify the UK Parliament for allowing unaccountable politicians to make laws - it is much the same, on a greater scale. There are legitimate arguments against the EU but I don't think it is any more undemocratic than the UK political system other than the fact that the EU electorate includes 27 other nations.

Our MPs are not unaccountable else we'd never have a change of govt. If you want to continue this please start a thread on electoral reform, this is about the EU.

[theessexfox]

Our MPs are not unaccountable else we'd never have a change of govt. If you want to continue this please start a thread on electoral reform, this is about the EU.

The EU institutions also change - different make-ups of the European Parliament, different appointed commissioners...

 

I feel like it's a relevant comparison to make in terms of the argument that the EU is undemocratic, as it's really no more undemocratic than our own system, which the Brexit campaign wants to have full sovereignty. If one believes that law-making solely at a national level is better than at a European level, and disagree with pooled sovereignty, then that's fair enough - I personally believe in EU integration and pooled sovereignty in key issues like environment and security, and ensuring that subsidiarity is properly applied in most other areas - but the argument about democratic accountability is a flawed one imo. I'd much rather the debate focused on real issues like the extent to which we are becoming TOO integrated, the economic implications, the effect of free movement of people, etc. 

[Alf Bentley]

It's one of the many reasons why I want us to leave. Without democracy we have corruption, cronyism, arrogance and incompetence, which doesn't help either.

 

 

 

I agree with that comment - but that applies at national level, as well as to the EU, I think.

 

 

Obviously we can only get rid of govts/MPs at election time.

 

That was my understanding, but some people have advocated a "recall" system whereby, if a certain (high) proportion of registered voters in a constituency sign a petition, an MP or MEP could face a byelection. 

I'm pretty sure that doesn't apply at either national or European level. Not sure what I think of it. Unless the threshold was quite high, it could easily be abused (some people will sign anything). 

 

 

Separate EU referendum issue:

 

There was an article in the Observer yesterday about young people's attitudes to the referendum. Most (on both sides) seemed very ill-informed and the consensus was that very few of their friends had any interest in the issue.

If they're at all representative, I find that depressing. This is arguably the most important decision that the nation has taken or will take for several decades.

 

The article also quoted the General Election "turnout by age" figures that I mentioned: 78% of those aged 65+ voted in 2015, versus 43% of those aged under 25.

If anything similar happens at the referendum, I reckon that a "Leave" vote is very likely, given that older people disproportionately favour "Leave" in polls and younger generations favour "Remain".

[digitalalba]

We get told by the Remain campaign, that if we leave, it will cost us to trade with the EU because they will charge us.

 

Seeing as they reply on us for 2 million jobs more than we reply on them, economically they need us more than we need them, wouldn't Brexit put us in the position to charge them to trade with us?

 

The leader of the Lib Dems claimed Brexit wasn't winning the immigration argument, because the same amount of British people that live in the EU is equal the EUers living here, so what is the reason? Not a numbers game, more a cultural disaprovement?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

We get told by the Remain campaign, that if we leave, it will cost us to trade with the EU because they will charge us.

Seeing as they reply on us for 2 million jobs more than we reply on them, economically they need us more than we need them, wouldn't Brexit put us in the position to charge them to trade with us?

So the EU deal we have at the moment removes tariffs from exporting items between countries - and these tariffs can range from smaller to larger percentages.

Now if the deal is removed trade could happen with tariffs, but if we simplify things this really gives exporters the decision of either;

1.) maintaining the existing price - by consuming the costs themselves, thus reducing their margin, profability, and possibly impacting on job / growth decisions

2.) passing on the price increase to the consumer

3.) a mixture of both

Now one key factor in deciding is how attractive your product is to consumers - if your product is well positioned and it is a desirable commodity an increase in price to consumers won't be too determinental to the business.

So in the case of German Cars like Mercs, Audi's and BMW's, they would probably still be ok trading with tariffs - for a start, they could consume a little margin if needed, but equally, British people like to buy them so charging a little more might not hurt.

There's also another key point in this area - German manufactures may not mind a tariff being applied to their exports to the UK if it meant the cars produced in the UK and exported to the EU also had a tariff applied - it would effectively make their product within EU look more competitive and when you consider the mass of car manufactures of the continent maybe the EU as a group wouldn't be that desperate to concede a free trade deal on cars?

The same could be said of French Champagne and other Fine European Wine's. There would still be a market for them here regardless of a tariff being imposed on the price, so I'd imagine the price of these things would rise if a tariff was imposed.

Now one of our biggest exports to the EU is services, so the question for us is whether we've made that sector desirable or resilient enough to combat the potential additional costs in the short term while any future deal was agreed. Would other countries outside the EU providing services then be competing with us? Would service providers that were inside the EU get a competitive advantage and put our industry under pressure?

So as you can see, trade and trade deals are clearly not straight forward - because it's a case of finding areas of mutual agreement, then horse trading deals on each other's areas of national interests.

Whoever was negotiating for us would need to make decisions on what industries we may want to protect from outside imports so they can grow internally unapposed (say Steel sector?) and what products we wanted to maintain a competitive advantage with upon exporting into the EU (say cars, services and IT components).

Additionally, one of the most pressing and highly tariffed commodities is food - so if prices for common items not produced in this country went up 20-30% in price, that would out pressure on the cost of living, so this could be an area of priority for future UK trade negotiators with any country of block.

Now what happens in a Brexit situation is hard to predict, but given we'd essentially be starting from ground zero that isn't a great opening hand for negotiations - with anyone. We may have to concede some damaging things to this country in order to maintain some other areas, there will be no easy choices - and when hard choices like this have to be made, it will be those with the deepest pockets / loudest voices that tend to be heard.

I hope this makes some sort of rational and logical sense!

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

It's not groundless. Leaving the EU will take at least two years. It will then take a while longer for things to settle into a new normal. So for several years we'll have uncertainty, that's a fact. The only arguable point is the degree to which uncertainty impacts businesses and their workers.

Personally, I feel it will have a moderately strong negative impact, enough to significantly increase unemployment and to cause a fall in economic output. We won't all be dropping dead in the streets because of this, but it will do the nation some harm, and personally I want to see much stronger evidence of the benefits of leaving before voting to do myself harm.

Considering the fact that the UK ploughs Fifty million pounds EVERY DAY into Europe, and is third from the bottom for what it gets out, I would say that the money would be invested in our own country, and would be of massive benefit  towards improving the N.H.S., policing, education, industry, and many other things.

 

Small businesses seem to be united in believing that by leaving the EU, they will prosper far more. 

 

The unofficial figure for immigration for the year 2015, is four times that of the official figure, and is around 800 million. Leaving the EU would give us far greater control of immigration.

 

Yes, it will take some two years to remove ourselves from Europe, but it is completely unfounded, that it will be "messy" to do so.

 

I want future generations to grow up with our future in our own hands, and not dictated to, by such countries as Germany.

 

France is also considering a similar referendum, along with another, (I forget which).

 

There are many thousands of people still living today, who fought a war to keep our country free, and we owe it to them, and those who died, to retain our sovereignty!

 

BREXIT!

[DJ Barry Hammond]

The unofficial figure for immigration for the year 2015, is four times that of the official figure, and is around 800 million. Leaving the EU would give us far greater control of immigration.

 

Are you sure of that figure?!?

[johnny the fox]

Remember this....members of my family fought and died in 2 world wars for this country's freedom and democracy ...Do you think for one minute they would of laid down their lives for the EU? Cameron the traitor is flushing their memory down the toilet... when merkel decided to let in one million refugees into germany did she pick up the phone and ask cameron's opinion ? of course not.. i don't want us dominated by the germans by the back door.... sorry..

[johnny the fox]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3k  brexit the movie.. ignore farage he is irrelevant..

[Dodgy Bob]

Considering the fact that the UK ploughs Fifty million pounds EVERY DAY into Europe, and is third from the bottom for what it gets out, I would say that the money would be invested in our own country, and would be of massive benefit towards improving the N.H.S., policing, education, industry, and many other things.

Small businesses seem to be united in believing that by leaving the EU, they will prosper far more.

The unofficial figure for immigration for the year 2015, is four times that of the official figure, and is around 800 million. Leaving the EU would give us far greater control of immigration.

Yes, it will take some two years to remove ourselves from Europe, but it is completely unfounded, that it will be "messy" to do so.

I want future generations to grow up with our future in our own hands, and not dictated to, by such countries as Germany.

France is also considering a similar referendum, along with another, (I forget which).

There are many thousands of people still living today, who fought a war to keep our country free, and we owe it to them, and those who died, to retain our sovereignty!

BREXIT!

Our net contribution to the EU (our 'fee' minus rebate minus EU spending in the uk) for 2015 was £8.5bn which is just over £23m per day. Still sounds like quite a lot but total UK public spending in 15/16 was £772bn so it would only equate to an increase of about 1%, which wouldn't achieve "massive benefits".

Immigration will continue anyway. We need immigrants. We'll probably end up taking more immigrants who are less skilled from further afield.

I think leaving would be messy. It would definitely take lots of time and that would be damaging.

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

Are you sure of that figure?!?

Quoted on BBC, yesterday.

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

Our net contribution to the EU (our 'fee' minus rebate minus EU spending in the uk) for 2015 was £8.5bn which is just over £23m per day. Still sounds like quite a lot but total UK public spending in 15/16 was £772bn so it would only equate to an increase of about 1%, which wouldn't achieve "massive benefits".

Immigration will continue anyway. We need immigrants. We'll probably end up taking more immigrants who are less skilled from further afield.

I think leaving would be messy. It would definitely take lots of time and that would be damaging.

One thing you don;t mention is that Europe needs us, more than we need them. We can negotiate stronger deals, as we hold the whip hand. They can jump up and down all they like, but they cannot detach themselves from us. 

 

Don't forget the food mountains either, that they create. It's morally disgusting.

 

I can go on, but what the hell!

[DJ Barry Hammond]

One thing you don;t mention is that Europe needs us, more than we need them. We can negotiate stronger deals, as we hold the whip hand. They can jump up and down all they like, but they cannot detach themselves from us. 

 

 

That is dangerous thinking, as I've tried to point out in a post above - there may be things that we trade that would be missed, some business could lose out if tariffs are imposed, but on the otherhand it could create a lot of opportunity in Europe to provide things that would be missing inside the EU that the UK currently provides if there's a competitive advantage to be had.

The rhetoric that's expressed here is the classic mistake poor card players make when the pick up a pair of Aces - they focus so much on the apparent strength of their own hand, they fail to see the possible danger to them from other players hands. You should be assured the EU will look to play a strong hand in any negotiation of a future trade deal.

Oh - and the 800 million figure is not right is it? The UK population itself is around 65,000,000 - so 800,000,000 is way off!

[Alf Bentley]

Quoted on BBC, yesterday.

 

 

I think you might mean 800 thousand (800,000), not 800 million.

Official annual net immigration is 200,000 or so, isn't it? That would make more sense - especially when the entire UK population is only about 67 million or so!

 

As for the UK's net contribution to EU funds, that's because we're one of Europe's richest economies. It's redistribution for investment/development in poorer areas. In my lifetime, I've seen how that's turned countries like Ireland and Spain from backward nations to West European living standards. Part of the idea is that other countries (including the UK) benefit from improvements to the Spanish/Irish economy in the long-run (through trade etc.). We do similar stuff on a national level - I presume that Osborne's "Northern Powerhouse" would use that tactic - invest funds in the North that will benefit the nation as a whole economically. 

 

Of course, some areas of the UK are net beneficiaries of EU funding (Scotland, Wales, N. Ireland, Cornwall & Merseyside, I think), or even completely depend on EU funding, like farmers.

Have the "Leave" side said what they'll do about that if we do vote out? Will the national government step in to fund farmers to the same extent - or to invest in N. Ireland, Cornwall & Liverpool?

[Alf Bentley]

Interesting article from Paul Mason (ex-Newsnight, C4 News) - Eurosceptic from a left-wing perspective, but suggesting that this is the wrong time for Brexit:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/16/brexit-eu-referendum-boris-johnson-greece-tory

 

He also thinks that, if the polls look close, then the EU will offer the Tory Govt an improved deal on their terms (as Cameron did just before the Scottish referendum): more deregulation, lower social standards etc.

Again, it just shows how Thatcherites and right-wing nationalists are setting the agenda for this referendum.

 

 

Mind you, here's John McDonnell piping up with a leftist case for Remain: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-warns-eu-referendum-debate-must-be-rescued-from-tory-infighting_uk_573a4e52e4b01359f6874fa1

“I want to rescue the debate from the negativity and ‘Project Fear’ coming from all sides of the Tory party. The referendum resulted from the splits in the Conservative Party and their fear of Ukip, and as a result the debate has degenerated. People want facts, but more importantly they want to see the progressive alternative - not just negative Tory infighting. It’s time to turn this debate around, drive out the politics of despair and offer a vision for Britain and Europe, one where we protect workers’ rights, tackle tax avoidance, get to grips with climate change and protect our industries like steel.”

[Harry - LCFC]

Interesting article from Paul Mason (ex-Newsnight, C4 News) - Eurosceptic from a left-wing perspective, but suggesting that this is the wrong time for Brexit:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/16/brexit-eu-referendum-boris-johnson-greece-tory

 

He also thinks that, if the polls look close, then the EU will offer the Tory Govt an improved deal on their terms (as Cameron did just before the Scottish referendum): more deregulation, lower social standards etc.

Again, it just shows how Thatcherites and right-wing nationalists are setting the agenda for this referendum.

 

 

Mind you, here's John McDonnell piping up with a leftist case for Remain: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-warns-eu-referendum-debate-must-be-rescued-from-tory-infighting_uk_573a4e52e4b01359f6874fa1

“I want to rescue the debate from the negativity and ‘Project Fear’ coming from all sides of the Tory party. The referendum resulted from the splits in the Conservative Party and their fear of Ukip, and as a result the debate has degenerated. People want facts, but more importantly they want to see the progressive alternative - not just negative Tory infighting. It’s time to turn this debate around, drive out the politics of despair and offer a vision for Britain and Europe, one where we protect workers’ rights, tackle tax avoidance, get to grips with climate change and protect our industries like steel.”

 

So, Mason's chief argument in favour of Brexit is that the EU acts to restrict democracy but says he thinks the timing isn't right because the wrong party is in office. Hmmm.

 

I suppose it's still a valid argument but once again we're seeing a someone on the left who likes to shout about how much he loves democracy show a more timid level of support when a right-wing party is in position to set government policy.

 

I don't know what Mason's view of the decision to hold the referendum was, but perhaps Labour should've been a bit more democratic and matched the Conservatives' pre-election promise if they didn't like the idea of the Tories being first up to make post-Brexit policy.

[Alf Bentley]

So, Mason's chief argument in favour of Brexit is that the EU acts to restrict democracy but says he thinks the timing isn't right because the wrong party is in office. Hmmm.

 

I suppose it's still a valid argument but once again we're seeing a someone on the left who likes to shout about how much he loves democracy show a more timid level of support when a right-wing party is in position to set government policy.

 

I don't know what Mason's view of the decision to hold the referendum was, but perhaps Labour should've been a bit more democratic and matched the Conservatives' pre-election promise if they didn't like the idea of the Tories being first up to make post-Brexit policy.

 

 

I take your point, but there are many definitions of "democracy" and many ideas about the democratic structures we should have, nationally or at EU level.

 

I assume Mason sees the EU as undemocratic in having its structures slanted to promote the rights and power of global big business at the expense of social justice, workers, private individuals, small businesses etc.

 

He's clearly itching to vote "Out" on those grounds, but is edging towards "Remain" (for now, not forever) as he feels that Boris, Gove & co will slant British democracy even MORE in favour of big business and against social justice and citizens. It's certainly a case that can be argued (more so for Boris & Gove than for Farage, funnily enough). The case being made for Brexit is very much a Thatcherite/right-wing nationalist one - which has an obvious appeal to Rightist Brexiters, but alienates some of those on the Left who are discontented with the EU's pro-corporate bias and inadequate democracy. 

 

I don't know about Mason, but I've always tended to favour an EU referendum, maybe naively. I like the idea of greater public debate and democratic input into how it works, if we stay in. I'm not sure the referendum is encouraging much genuine debate, unfortunately. There's an awful lot of lying, sloganeering, fear tactics and superficiality on both sides - and not a lot intelligent engagement from voters (on either side, again). I feel pretty under-informed myself, and I'm a politics obsessive who has bothered to research it a little bit.

[digitalalba]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3k  brexit the movie.. ignore farage he is irrelevant..

It is an irony, that generally, the left want to remain, but by doing so, it is creating an anti-left cause.

 

The EU has 4 Presidents. I haven't voted for one of them!

10,000 EU employers earn more than the British PM.

 

Why the hell were we ever forced...in...this...monster...

[DJ Barry Hammond]

EU referendum - swipe right to Remain!

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/world/europe/young-and-oppose-brexit-you-may-be-david-camerons-match-on-tinder.html?module=WatchingPortal&region=c-column-middle-span-region&pgType=Homepage&action=click&mediaId=thumb_square&state=standard&contentPlacement=1&version=internal&contentCollection=www.nytimes.com&contentId=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F05%2F18%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fyoung-and-oppose-brexit-you-may-be-david-camerons-match-on-tinder.html&eventName=Watching-article-click

[DJ Barry Hammond]

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3734/Half-believe-the-economy-will-get-worse-in-the-short-term-if-Britain-leaves-the-EU-but-more-likely-to-think-it-will-improve-in-the-long-term.aspx

Some of the recent polling suggests Remain support has increased, like the one above - and that coincided with a big jump in the price of the £ vs the $

Of course the polls could be nonsense - I'm sure I saw an Online poll this week that suggest Brexit was ahead as well, but I do wonder if the length of the campaign could be a hinderance to Brexit in terms of having enough fresh things to say. True the same comment could be directed at the remain camp, but banging on about "it's the economy stupid" is the sort of argument that works with repetition.

If I was running the Brexit campaign, I'd be looking to quieten things down for a bit, whilst finding something a bit more concrete to present to the debate that would hit at Bremain's enconomy argument - like presenting some preliminary discussions with a major country on a trade deal to give that added bit of credibility and remove some of the 'doubt' that will hurt their case in the same way it hurt the SNP's Scottish independence position.

[danfox76]

hi guys please share and make this video viral..

https://youtu.be/eYqzcqDtL3k

your children and grandchildrens lives literally depend on it.. people need to know what they are voting for, its the most important vote uk citizens will ever cast.

i cannot stress how important this is.